Roundtable of Death – Draft Edition

Varada

I’m torn about the Cody Ceci pick, which is to say that I’m not totally pumped, but I’m on board for now.

Obviously snagging the second highest scoring defenseman in the OHL, who is already man-sized (copyright PJ Harvey) at 6’1, 205 lbs, and was forecast to go in the top ten, is a huge plus. It may actually qualify as a steal. Ottawa didn’t need to give up assets to trade up. They got a hometown boy. All these things are awesome things.

Of my two outstanding doubts, which I guess are healthy to have when we’re talking drafting 18 years olds, the first is outlined in my previous post and expanded on with typical rigor by Tyler Dellow over here. The gist is that defensemen are less likely to become elite than forwards because their development is more difficult to predict, and as such it makes more sense to use valuable first round picks on forwards and more late-round picks on defensemen. Obviously this didn’t bear out this year, with 257 defensemen selected in the first 15 picks.

The second doubt comes from having left skilled Teuvo Teravainen on the board. I have no more detailed analysis than that, only that Teravainen seemed like the most skilled forward left at 15th, and I wonder if it makes sense to use first rounders on forwards. Having said that, Ottawa drafted Karlsson and Cowen with valuable first rounders, and, here’s the latest from the House of Small Sample Sizes: those decisions seem to be working out well.

Other random thoughts: Ottawa drafted not one, but TWO goaltenders, the last of which is from the QMJHL, which James and I were just joking doesn’t produce a lot of great goaltenders, hence the 5th round picks who have scored a point-and-a-half per game in that league. Also Chris Driedger, who I know nothing about but whose numbers look terrible, but hey it’s goaltending. Nobody knows anything. Malcolm Subban got drafted in the first round, fer Chrissake, and I’ve only ever seen that guy allow goals in bunches.

Who else had a tingle to see Filip Forsberg fall to 11th? Would have been incredible to trade up to get him, though without any 2nd round picks that would have been hard to do.

Finally, on the trade front, it seems a lot less likely that Ottawa would be involved for any of the stars on the block – Nash or Ryan – without that 15th overall pick to throw in the package. That’s probably a good thing.

James

First off, I know we just signed our domain name to a lucrative 7 year contract but does anyone want to change the name of the blog to, “I’m Not Totally Pumped But I’m On Board For Now Dot Com”? I just feel that really gives the reader an idea of what it is we do here.

Yeah, I don’t know, all due respect, I’m not ready to buy into this 20 minute old theory of ‘don’t waste your first round pick on a defenseman’ that’s been going around lately. If only because of the Sens last two defensemen taken in the first round. Maybe I’m too hands off with the draft because of the many Wiccan ceremonies that have to be held in order to take someone. I missed the entire first round because the movie Labyrinth was on television which I mistook for the draft. The calculation of the percentage of picks that “work out” (hard to define in and of itself) depends on way too many things that, I feel, do factor in, to name a few: Organizational incompetence (Call it the Calgary Factor), player attitude (Filatov Factor), reaction to pressure/bring rushed to perform (Schenn Factor), ever changing respective team needs/trends (ajghraseb factor) and a liberal sprinkling of some straight up bullshit (Datsyuk Factor…seriously, fuck you Detroit…FUCK. You.). I guess what I’m saying is, I never feel more out of my element than at the draft. Case in point, flash back…

TV: “We have a trade to announce….the Ottawa Senators exchange the sixteenth overall pick for 2009 17th overall pick David Rundblad of Skelleftea of Elitserien”
Me: “Cooooool…..I have no idea what’s happening” *takes sip of Zima*”

Or

TV: “and the Ottawa Senators take Mika Zibanejad of the SEL…Zibanejad had 9 goals in 27 games for Djurgardens last season”
Me: “Cooooooool….I have no idea if that’s good” *takes sip of Zima*

Or

Not even on TV at this point: “and the Ottawa Senators take Mark Stone of the Brandon Wheat Kings with the 178th overall pick. He had 106 points in 71 games second only to first overall pick, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins”
Me: Makes sense. *Portal to the lower forth dimension begins to open on my living room floor*

I like stories. I’m saying, I’m totally fine with Cody Ceci. In fact seems like a logical pick. For all the panic going on in the Sensphere about the future of the blueline I can’t be at all mad at the Sens for making a big investment in it this year (as they did drafting King K and …. Count…Cowen…). I’m especially comfortable with the pick considering that Murray n’ Murray took 3 forwards in the first round alone a year ago. I don’t know why Teravainen dropped so many spots. You know what else I don’t know? Very much about him! I figure Ottawa’s scouts do and I wish the Blackhawks nothing but less success than the Senators in future endeavors!

On a personal note, because of his time with the 67s I’ve had the pleasure of watching Cody Ceci really come into his own at the OHL level which is exciting. I have a lot of respect for the OHL game and think it is a great finishing school for young players before they are draft eligible.

As for drafting two goalies, man, Dorion was not bluffing about that, eh? I see this as Ottawa potentially hedging their bets as we are currently seeing in the NHL trend report that goalie is the new puck moving defenseman (i.e. inflated value). One thing I do know is that I’m glad that Ottawa did not take Malcolm Subban. Look, PK Subban is a very engaging, handsome young man and a good hockey player so naturally his brother is a very good goaltender that I’ve never seen play a good game against the 67s. I could eat my words but for now I’m relieved that the Sens didn’t take him.

Final thought: Happiest part of draft weekend. Not trading a bunch of stuff for Rick Nash. Being bummed out at the idea of acquiring Rick Nash is kind of hilarious but I’d rather the Sens just take their time with the Rebuild. I am way more comfortable with a Kyle Turris type move. Young, cheap skill on the upswing of their career.

Varada

Yeah, I totally hear what you’re saying about how the draft is so riddled with exceptions that it can’t make much sense to be disappointed to be picking a top player with a top pick. I guess from a statistical point of view there are a whole bunch of collar-tugging anxieties – how many OHL defensemen have worked out for the Sens? (6th Sens looked at this. Not many.) How many defensemen in the first round turn into regular NHLers? (Not elite, just actual players who contribute at some level. Again, not many.) And so on. But if this team was going to take a defenseman, I’m glad it’s this one. I mean, it’s kept me from having to do a great deal of background reading about, uhhhhh…Jacob Trouba? Or Slater Koekkek, who is also an OHL defenseman, and who Tampa took five spots higher than Ceci.

I’m coming around to the idea of Rick Nash, but like you were saying when we were drinking beers in an art house basement yesterday while waiting for our friend’s experimental film festival to start (actual thing that happened!): let’s get in on this Bobby Ryan action first.

Pete

There was an experimental film festival and I wasn’t invited? You go now!

Jk, arty playboys, I’m so boned with work and moving and junk that getting this reply out is a minor miracle.

Some rando thoughts on the draft. One, the 24 hours sports news cycle puts way more creedence into the draft than it actually merits. Did you know baseball only recently started televising their amateur draft? And by recently I mean this year, on the MLB network. ESPN or Fox Sports Net wouldn’t touch it. Two, the quality of this draft was definitely on the flaccid side of exciting. The few fleeting moments I did watch were frought with analysts trying to spin the dirt off it like a basketball that rolled into a puddle (sports similies, get your sports similies!)

That being said, I was surprised there wasn’t more wheeling and dealing. A defense heavy flavor usually indicates that gm’s decide this is the year they shore up the substance and take fliers on flash with less frequency. You’d think there’d be a propensity for moving picks. Nope, strange.

Now to the sens…uh, this draft really didn’t really register with yours truly, I like the Ceci pick because it plays well in Peoria (uh I mean Nepean) he’s got decent size and can skate so why not throw the loeb cookie club a bone and take the kid. Side note: Missed Ottawa Citizen sports headline opportunity “Finally!” (Cece Peniston ref there for the non gospel crowd) Two forwards in the whole bunch?

Last thought, I feel like someone should get Scott Howson’s office number, call him up asking who he’d like to recieve (regardless of team) in exchange for Nash. While he runs down the Joey Crabb’s and Nick Schultz’s of the league rip a huge fart (fake or real, not picky) into the phone and hang up. Get over yourself Scott, you’re not lacing em up and you’re not winning this deal. Your star has sabotaged any leverage.

(microphone drop, exeunt)

5 thoughts on “Roundtable of Death – Draft Edition

  1. All i have to say is; Im sooo glad you guys are posting. Work wasn’t the same there for a spell. Sidebar; if Murray has proven anything to me, its that he knows how to draft. His pick the best player available philosophy has brought in some great youth, or at very least some valuable prospect chips. As for the Nash deal, the asking price is wayyyyyyy to steep, and I fully agree with Pete’s fart comment. Howsen, take this one on the chin bud, you lost; you would have been better off not telling anyone Nash is the one who came forward, and trying to deal him last year. Al the same, Murray has an eye for these guys (stars who need a change of scenery). I know the Heatley thing is touchy, but he needed a change of scene, and the hell out of stale ass Atlanta after killing a potentially great hockey player (RIP Schnieder). Nash is the same (I believe) with less blood on his hands. He just need a change from COlumbus, cause obviously, they aren’t getting better any time soon. How many years have they been a respectable above .50 team? Just my thoughts….always great reading…..keep posting!!

  2. Im so indifferent to all this draft speculation and analysis. It all seems really silly to me. With all due respect to us (or anyone else) we dont know shit about the draft. All we do is get 3rd and 4th hand information about these teenagers that may or may not still be wetting the bed. I think at the end of the day, some teams suck at developing players and some teams don’t. How many coaches are there in the league that dont know how to deal with young players? How many teams have no long term vision with their young players? There are sure things, there are good players with potential, and then there are projects and risk/reward guys. Ceci seems to fall into the good player with potential range, along with the most of the players from 5-20.

    For me as a Sens fan, im fortunate enough to be able to trust my teams scouting staff and the way we develop our players. So if Pierre Dorian says that they rated this guy way higher than where he was picked, this makes me optimistic. If I was a leafs fan and my team went off the board to pick morgan rielly, I would be throwing up because the leafs just arent very good at this whole drafting/player developement thing.

    • Very true…. some teams got it and some don’t it seems………..
      Burke was handed a great ducks team developed through the draft, by none other than B-Murr himself and won a cup, so something tells me Murray’s system works, but it takes time and development.
      If you reflect a little while on Burkes philosophy; no patience, build a cup contender tomorrow etc… it really doesn’t make sense at all, especially in todays NHL. You guys posted a while back as to whether or not it’s good to be a fringe team that gets picks or a contending team that gets nowhere in the draft. Burke is trying to sideskirt all of that, trade away his no assets for well…..crappy assets.
      This does make me happy as I take solace in the fact T.O. will suck for years to come.
      and another thing, I don’t know shit about nothing draft wise, ‘cept what B-Murr tells me. and i trust the hell outta him ……… last one for the day

  3. Pingback: Senators News: June 28th | eyeonthesens

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s