WTYKY Podcast: Episode 29 – 2021 NHL Entry Draft Chat with Brad Allen

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James and Luke welcome back returning champion Brad Allen to answer questions about the upcoming NHL entry draft. Questions like:

  • How are last year’s draftees going?
  • Is it completely ridiculous to take Jesper Wallstedt at 10th overall when Sebastian Cossa is right there?
  • Who has the edge between Cole Sillinger, Chaz Lucius, and Kent Johnson?
  • Who are some potential RD options at 10?
  • Who are this year’s darkhorses that could still be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds?

WTYKY Podcast: Episode 27 – Talking Craigs: Stop Making Sens

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James and Luke welcome back returning champion Brad Allen to answer questions about the upcoming NHL entry draft. Questions like:

  • How are last year’s draftees going?
  • Is it completely ridiculous to take Jesper Wallstedt at 10th overall when Sebastian Cossa is right there?
  • Who has the edge between Cole Sillinger, Chaz Lucius, and Kent Johnson?
  • Who are some potential RD options at 10?
  • Who are this year’s darkhorses that could still be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds?

WTYKY Podcast: Episode 26 – Are the Sens TOO Sicko???

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James and Luke welcome back returning champion Brad Allen to answer questions about the upcoming NHL entry draft. Questions like:

  • How are last year’s draftees going?
  • Is it completely ridiculous to take Jesper Wallstedt at 10th overall when Sebastian Cossa is right there?
  • Who has the edge between Cole Sillinger, Chaz Lucius, and Kent Johnson?
  • Who are some potential RD options at 10?
  • Who are this year’s darkhorses that could still be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds?

Time for a Vibe Check or “Here’s why you’re mad!”

Sens Fans would literally rather read a blog post than go to therapy.

Hello, and welcome back to Hockey.

Remember Game 1 of the season? We were riding high! The Sens came into their first game in over 300 days and thoroughly dominated a heavily favoured Leafs team in the season opener. Thomas Chabot was on the ice for all five Senators goals (including scoring a beauty on the powerplay), Matthews and Thornton were on for three goals against, and I must admit: I got sucked in to the “Are the Sens TOO good?” discourse very fast. But could you blame me? Ottawa looked great against a Toronto team who are the prohibitive favourites in a Canadian Division that’s filled with more tomato cans than an Italian grocer. I declared then and there that if the Senators opened their season with two straight wins over Toronto, there was no reason they couldn’t be expected to make the playoffs. Who could stop them?

Well, in the ensuing five games, we have received the answer: the thing that could stop the Ottawa Senators is themselves. It has been a masterclass in Losing Hockey. We have seen defensive lapses, giveaways, blown leads, blowouts, bad penalties, bad skating, bad goaltending, bad coaching, which has resulted in a textbook case of Bad Team. It’s almost like most of these guys haven’t played consistently in nearly a year! Also, it’s a very short season so there’s very little time to make up ground in an ENTIRELY HYPOTHETICAL situation where you want the Senators to make the playoffs this year.

Ottawa suffering from yet another case of Bad Team was not unpredictable to anyone who had even a cursory interest in season projections. Not only that, but my colleague Varada said earlier today that the team hasn’t even been as bad as you think! Despite this, there are Sens fans and Sens adjacent individuals, and even Sens themselves, who are Mad Online at a level that hasn’t been seen in years. Players are mad, Blogs are mad, the Reddits are mad, the Twitters are mad, and the coach is mad. It’s been six games! What’s going on here? Haven’t any of you seen a bad team go on a five game losing streak before? Well, don’t worry; I’m here to explain everything. Simply lie down on my couch, and we can begin the session.

Continue reading

2020 Draft Grades

did you know that if you go on ottawa senators dot com, you can just download whatever pictures you see on there? pretty cool

Tim Stützle

Luke says: If there’s one thing I’ve realized while learning German, it’s that English tolerates differences between vowels sounds that make other languages a perceptual nightmare. English, in so many ways, is a linguistic wild west where everything’s made up and the structure doesn’t matter, but the vast variety of accents available to its native speakers play tricks with your mind in ways you don’t realize. Have you ever watched the Movie Accent Guy break down the differences between various Boston accents? It all sounds like imminent racism to me, but thank you for your service. Meanwhile, native German speakers have made fun of me for mis-hearing “gruselig” as “gröselig”. Make Google say those words to you and get back to me if you hear any difference whatsoever. Did you know Kafka wrote in German? I bring this up for no reason. The untrained monolingual anglophonic ear is simply not meant to discern such subtle differences between vowels when we interpret “n-EYE-ther” and “n-EE-ther” as legitimate pronunciations of “neither”. 

Anyway, after I texted all my German friends to tell them that Ottawa just drafted Timmy S., I received texts like this: 

Tough crowd! For the record, here’s how you say Stuetzle:

https://twitter.com/coolcatmum/status/1312824124562116611

Keep practicing. You will get it one day. If you do it wrong, a German WILL appear from out of nowhere and correct you. They can’t help it.

Pick Grade: Zehn out of ten

Jake Sanderson

Luke Says: Depending on who you ask, Jake Sanderson was either the best defenseman available in this draft or scout bait with bigger bust potential than a late Roman emperor. The Sens have really nailed their player assessment colours to the mast in selecting Sanderson ahead of various offensively talented forwards like Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti, and Alexander Holtz. No pressure on this kid who is already slated to be the human embodiment of the never-ending Scouts vs. Spreadsheets debate and will singlehandedly be responsible in answering the question “Do Dorion and co. really know what they’re doing at the draft?”, at least until the next moderately controversial draft pick comes along.

Anyway, what sort of advantages do you think you’d have in hockey if your dad was an NHL player? There’s the obvious financial and genetic leg-up you’d have over someone trying to make the show off the street, but also have you ever considered the emotional release you could get from firing up NHL06 and making Tie Domi beat up your dad in a video game because he grounded you after he caught you doing your art homework instead of practising your snap shots in the driveway? Think of all the extra hours you’d spend secretly sketching in your design notebook at the hockey camp that you got sent to over the architecture camp that you wanted to go to. Imagine all the hockey sticks you’d get for Christmas instead of a single Rotring 800 drafting pencil. If your dad was in the NHL, you couldn’t help but become a great hockey player instead of the next Zaha Hadid. You and I will never suckle of these sweet nectars.

Pick Grade: One Thousand Museum out of ten

Ridly Greig

Varada says: You know what they say: culture eats strategy for breakfast. This is at once a bit of MBA cookie-cutter wisdom and one of the foundations on which the analytics community built its Church of Latter Day Contempt for the Hockey Men who themselves act as arbiters of culture. And so there is some irony in the fact that the community of relatively young men and women who use spreadsheets to split the hairs of adolescents’ competitive arcs decided that having three picks in the first round, and one of those picks being 28th, meant that the Ottawa Senators were bound by some irresistible force or cosmic justice to take a higher risk player with a higher projected ceiling. And it was with selfsame contempt that the Grown Hockey Men of the Ottawa Senators’ emaciated front office looked upon the vast and fruitful landscape of the 2021 draft and said, “Lo, bring to me a boy man who has character and gumption.” He was delivered, faithfully: Ridly Greig is described as hard-working, a half-decent passer, and a pain in the ass. It’s true that Ottawa has roughly 50,000 players in their system that you could describe this way. So, when Dorion, iPad and super-supportive girlfriend like twin winds at his back, selected Greig to the Memorial Curtis Lazar Ring of Honor, it was unsurprising that the Blog Boys and Girls felt like the moral arc of the universe was both long and bending towards bullshit. 

Having assessed the letter grades issued by numerous hockey journalists who are legally obligated to produce said grades within 12 hours of the draft’s conclusion, only those who admit that having seven picks in the first two rounds means you physically can’t fuck up deigned to give the Senators a passing grade. Most simply cannot get over Leaving Skill on the Board. For this reason, grading the Greig pick is simultaneously fait accompli – one does not simply walk into the first round and draft grit – and entirely impossible, because the factors upon which the Ottawa Senators determined the degree to which they value Greig are those to which we have no access! We were not in the room with Greig during the interviews, we cannot absorb his potential contributions to the culture, even though culture eats strategy for breakfast. It says so, right at the top of this paragraph! Greig is the alpha and the omega, the beginning and end of any conversation about how we evaluate hockey skill. He exemplifies the failures of traditional hockey wisdom and also we don’t know what the fuck we’re talking about. Remember last year when everybody thought Josh Norris projected as a third-line center? Get out of here!

Pick grade: Ω out of ten

Roby Jarventie

Luke says: This was not the pick that I personally would have made with the 33rd overall pick (You should see the stuff I would have written about the German language if the Senators had picked John-Jason Peterka like I wanted), but I’m trying to get out of the habit of conflating “a pick I would not have made” with “a pick that is bad”. Jarventie is alleged by some to be a one-dimensional player but luckily that one dimension is scoring goals, which I guess is the scouting report equivalent of telling people that your job “pays the bills”. Roby Jarventie is exactly like a government job in Ottawa which requires an arduous commute to a hideous building in Gatineau where you work at a cubicle in a nearly windowless room for 38 hours a week and all you get in return is a mere $80,000 a year and job security. Prediction: he works out fine.

Pick Grade: Ottawa LRT Stage 2 out of ten

Tyler Kleven

Luke Says: There’s lots of things to know about Tyler Kleven; like a specialty clothing store he’s big AND tall, and he’s never met an opposing forward whose face he didn’t want to rearrange in a manner not in accordance with God’s plan. His most important characteristic to me, however, is being Jake Sanderson’s roommate. Apparently the Senators currently believe that drafting players who are already friends will unlock some sort of latent chemistry potential for the team. To assess this drafting strategy, I invite you, the reader, to imagine working your first summer job with your university roommate. In your imagination, would the presence of your peer and ostensible friend make you a more efficient worker, or make you someone who was more likely to slack off and spend your days speculating on how that summer’s season of Entourage was going to progress? I believe this pick is like Turtle losing his management deal with the rapper Saigon, but the Senators may yet metaphorically invest in Avion tequila before all is said and done.

Pick Grade: Kleven out of ten

Egor Sokolov

Luke says: Three minutes after Egor Sokolov was drafted, someone tweeted this CTV News story into my feed, and I became a Sokolover for life. Dude couldn’t get back to Russia to see his family, so he helped out in the community that became his second home. It’s a story that we simply love to see. Maybe it’s not a great sign that he had to consistently work to improve his skating just to get drafted in his 3rd year of eligibility, but your man’s got silky hands and a wicked shot, and all of these facts mean I will be transferring my unresolved Mark Stone feelings onto him instead of going to therapy.

Pick Grade: 61 out of ten

Leevi Merilainen

Luke says: Leevi Merilainen is a goalie. He plays in Finland. As far as I know, he was not on a single draft board other than Ottawa’s. I don’t believe he was on any prospect ranking list going into the draft, and I was not able to find a single scouting report on him in the public domain. I was, however, able to find his picture on elite prospects dot com.

I have no choice but to tip my hat to the Senators’ incredible display of goalie scouting hipsterism. There’s no way that the Senators needed to spend a draft pick on this guy, but they did any way just to call their shot, just so you know it’s not an accident. The Senators are a guy who corners you at a party, asks you which goalies you like, waits for you to mention Askarov, tells you Askarov was better two years ago before he went mainstream, and then says that he like some really great goalies out of Finland but you’ve probably never heard of them. Then you tell the Senators, well I’ve heard of a couple of Finnish goalies, try me, and the Senators say “Know Leevi Merilainen?” and you say “Is he that guy from Liiga-2?” and the Senators say “You mean Mestis? There’s no Liiga-2 it’s called Mestis. Also he plays for Karpat’s U20 team. I saw him live in Vaasa last year. Just me and three other guys there. It was incredible.” and then the Senators walk away and you’re like “Shit that guy did know goalies I’d never heard of. Fuck him.”

Pick Grade: [7.6] out of ten

Eric Engstrand

Eric was a pleasure to teach this year.

Pick Grade: Any of the complex zeros of the Riemann Zeta Function out of ten

Phillipe Daoust

Phillipe was a pleasure to teach this year.

Pick Grade: Sin(Spartacat) out of ten

Cole Reinhart

Cole was a pleasure to teach this year.

Pick Grade: The Fourier coefficients of the Steely Dan song “Peg” out of ten

WTYKY Podcast: Episode 24.5 – Best of Both Worlds, Part II

In the second part of WTYKY’s Draft Podcast Extravaganza, Luke and James talk to Hockey Prospect’s Brad Allen about:

– Lucas Raymond vs. Jack Quinn vs. Seth Jarvis

– Why Tristen Robins and Ridly Grieg got moved up his list

– Why Jamie Drysdale moved down his list

– Who should Ottawa swing for the fences with in the 2nd round

– Zayde Wisdom!!!

WTYKY Podcast: Episode 24 – Panic! At The Draft

James and Luke welcome back returning champion Brad Allen to answer questions about the upcoming NHL entry draft. Questions like:

  • How are last year’s draftees going?
  • Is it completely ridiculous to take Jesper Wallstedt at 10th overall when Sebastian Cossa is right there?
  • Who has the edge between Cole Sillinger, Chaz Lucius, and Kent Johnson?
  • Who are some potential RD options at 10?
  • Who are this year’s darkhorses that could still be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds?

WTYKY Time Machine: Mark Stone, Again!

Look, I doubt you need a comprehensive and somber recap of the global circumstances that led to this moment on this blog, so let’s just cut to the chase: you can watch the hockey game colloquially known as The Mark Stone Again Game by clicking this link. Continue scrolling down this blog post to read my thoughts and remembrances of this iconic moment in Sens History, broken down with the use of helpful timestamps.

1st Period

19:50 – I remember Pittsburgh scoring ten seconds into this game extremely clearly. Earlier that day, I had made a tweet about how someone had asked Andrew Hammond (AKA The Hamburglar) how he was going to handle Sidney Crosby, and how His Hamburglarness had responded “You have that question backwards.” It was meant to be a parody/satire of how Andrew Hammond was, at that time, the hottest goalie since sliced bread (??), but naturally every Pens fan who read this fake quote thought it was real, because their brains are smooth as eggs. Well, imagine my surprise when Sidney Crosby scored on the first shot of the game. The entire city of Pittsburgh took to Twitter to fill my mentions like it was their own diapers. The lesson is, as always, never tweet.

19:50 (Cont’d) – Erik Karlsson does not cover himself in glory on this play, but it’s a privilege to watch Erik Karlsson make mistakes for your team. When Erik Karlsson makes an ill-advised stretch pass, you should thank him for it.

18:08 – Half-hearted “Leafs Suck!” chant from the crowd during a whistle. This still holds up.

17:15 – Let’s remember some guys! Mika Zibanejad is on a line with Curtis Lazar and Erik Condra! What on earth was happening there? This is like using your Swedish Koenigsegg supercar to transport lumber home from Rona! Naturally the Senators were in the middle of an (estimated) 24-2-1 run at the time so this was just considered more proof of Dave Cameron’s genius.

14:44 – Hey, the Penguins just scored again. I can’t point to a single Senator that looked great on that play, but I’m going to pin all the blame exclusively on Karlsson and Wiercioch, just out of habit.

12:15 – I just saw a MacArthur – Turris – Stone line and started weeping openly. Is there another line in Senators history that you’d trust more in any situation?

10:43 – Let’s remember some guys! David Legwand is on this 2nd powerplay unit! Beginning to think that maybe this Senators team didn’t have the depth I remembered.

9:56 – “Paul Martin is so good at standing in the lane.” say the Pittsburgh commentators, effusive in their praise for a player whose great skill lies in doing nothing.

8:00 – Just saw a Hoffman – Pageau – Ryan line. Not sure why you’re not putting Hoffman with one of your high skill guys like David Legwand, but maybe that’s just picking nits.

6:25 – Let’s remember some guys! Alex Chiasson sighting! Would this team be better with Jason Spezza on it instead of Alex Chiasson? Well, it would have cost $7.5 million a year for four years to find out so we’ll never know.

6:15 – Andrew Hammond makes his first real 5-alarm save of the game. Hammond’s possibly the only goalie in history who was punished for making too many incredible saves. The puck hit him so often that eventually everyone decided he must be getting lucky.

5:16 – Hornqvist scores to make it 3-0 Pittsburgh following a series of preposterous Hammond saves. In retrospect, Hammond’s style probably did him no favours. He is, in the parlance of hockey people, a battler. The guy did whatever it took to keep the puck out of the net, and teams don’t really like that sort of thing. NHL teams need their goalies to have perfect technique, and stopping the puck is secondary. It’s called “being process oriented”.

2:34 – Wiercioch takes a penalty and the Senators respond by letting the Pageau-Condra-Methot-Ceci penalty kill unit get worked like they’re Mark Borowiecki’s speed bag. The period ends 3-0, and at last the stage is set for The Fun Part Everyone Remembers.

2nd Period

19:55 – Chris Cuthbert calmly mentions that the Senators’ last 4 games had gone to overtime or a shootout. It’s almost impossible to describe how tense this felt at the time. Like watching a golden retriever walk across a minefield in search of a distant snausage.  The Senators had essentially won 18 straight elimination games, but each win seemingly did nothing except grant them the privilege of needing the win the next game as well. I remember walking into the street and staring at the stars for 20 minutes following the shootout loss to Toronto in the previous game because I was convinced that single point was going to be the difference in making the playoffs, and the Sens BLEW IT thus proving that God was dead, or at least didn’t visit Ottawa anymore. Man, remember caring about the outcome of hockey games? Different times, man, different times…

19:30 – Erik Karlsson suddenly appearing in the place you’d least expect was probably the best part of watching Erik Karlsson. I love my new garbage sons like my own family, but there’s still nothing like watching a world class talent do incredible things for your team every night.

19:09 – Chris Kunitz hurts Patrick Weircioch with a hip check. “That’s the worst thing Chris Kunitz will ever do to myself and the city of Ottawa.”, I probably yelled at the time.

18:38 – Senators head to the powerplay, and nothing happens save for some chaotic looking rebound chances. Here’s a thing I had forgotten about this game: The Ottawa Senators look like the Springfield tire fire for a significant portion of it.

15:28 – The Legwand-Chiasson-Condra line has a great chance to make it 3-1, but fail to convert because they’re the Legwand-Chiasson-Condra line.

15:11 – Turris has a great chance, but doesn’t score because it’s not overtime in the playoffs and the goalie isn’t Henrik Lundqvist.

11:42 – Chris Cuthbert mentions that Mark Stone leads the league in takeaways. Within a year, you wouldn’t be able to say “Mark Stone” on Elgin St. without at least seven Sens fans popping out of the Lieutenant’s Pump to tell you that Mark Stone leads the NHL in takeaways.

10:00 – Halfway through the game and the score is 3-0 Pittsburgh. This is taking so long to get good. It feels like I’m live-blogging The Irishman.

6:55 – Mark Stone Again? At this point I would settle for Mark Stone The First Time!

5:56 – Marc Methot takes a cross-checking penalty that’s softer than an ASMR video. “Let’s see if the Senators can grab a little momentum back while short-handed.” says Ray Ferraro, prophetically.

5:20 – The Original Garbage Son, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, throws the puck in front of the net on a short-handed rush and it bounces off Derick Pouliot’s skate and into the net. Pageau celebrates like that’s exactly what he meant to do, and honestly, who is going to disagree with him? Leave it to Pageau to score in the most annoying way possible in the biggest game of the year (until the next game).

3:56 – The Sens kill off the rest of the penalty, and the crowd noise is upgraded from “Mid-February Game Against Carolina” to “March Afternoon Game vs. Buffalo”.

2:38 – Bobby Ryan takes a tripping penalty after he falls down near Evgeni Malkin lands on him. If you thought I wasn’t going to complain about the officiating in a five year old game whose outcome I already know, you are sorely mistaken. Not complaining about the reffing in a hockey game would be like attending Catholic Mass without taking communion.

3rd Period

19:35 – TSN displays a helpful graphic that informs us that the Penguins are 29-2-1 when leading after two periods this season. “I like those odds!” says Mark Stone to himself as he scores to make it 3-2.

19:26 – “There is no way that Mark Stone cannot be in the rookie of the year balloting!” extols Ray Ferraro. Incredible to think that this is Mark Stone’s rookie season, and he’s already got all the tools that will make him great. The incredible hands, the hockey IQ, the celebrations, it’s all there!

19:10 – I just looked it up, and the 2015 Calder Trophy would be awarded to Aaron Ekblad in a miscarriage of justice so great that it’s proof that Antonin Scalia was still alive at the time.

17:50 – Fleury makes a huge stop on Mark Stone, and the Senators, who spent two periods looking about as lively as an 8:00 AM calculus class, are suddenly filled with the power of self-respect like at the end of Scott Pilgrim but with Cody Ceci instead of Michael Cera.

17:00 – Clarke MacArthur is having his jaw looked at on the bench. Not going to read into that any more than I have to…nope, not today.

13:41 – Pittsburgh hits the post on a long shot from the point, but the puck stays out of the net because hockey is a meritocracy where each team gets what they deserve, and not a series of random bounces on which the human mind, in its hubris, attempts to ascribe control, intention, and moral judgement.

11:40 – The crowd begins to chant “We want playoffs!”, which immediately becomes one of the Top 3 Most Creative Chants ever invented by the CTC fans.

9:24 – Erik Condra takes a high-sticking penalty. Chris Cuthbert declares that the Sens are “flirting with danger”, but you’d flirt with danger too if you’d spent all those years married to disappointment.

8:50 – Let’s remember some guys! Eric Gryba “accidentally” spears Sidney Crosby. Now that’s what I call Capital Waterfowling! (???)

8:31 – Stone creates another shorthanded chance by forcing a turnover in the neutral zone. I can’t believe he’s a rookie here. He’s taking over this game to a level we’d only seen from Erik Karlsson at this point. A performance Alfie would be proud of.

7:24 – The Sens kill off the penalty, and immediately send out the Lazar-Zibanejad-Condra line. Folks, I’m getting mad online about the line combinations. It’s just like old times!

7:20 – But seriously, Lazar-Zibanejad-Condra????

6:38 –

comeon

Yeah, but he’s no AARON EKBLAD. This is why Trump got elected.

5:55 – The Turris line is buzzing, then the Pageau line is buzzing, then Erik Karlsson kinda looks bad in a 1-on-1 situation. It must needs be remarked that even this version of the Senators, one that we all look back on with great fondness, really REALLY noticeably lacked that game-breaking skill that could just manufacture a goal from nothing. Mark Stone is close to having that skill, but he’s not quite there yet, and Erik Karlsson is having an off night. The Sens are having to win this one the old fashioned (i.e. pesky) way: by firing the puck at the net an infinite number of times until it goes in.

2:45 – Turris is out there again. I’ll have to check the shift charts, but it feels like Turris, MacArthur, and Stone played 7 of the last 10 minutes.

2:04 – Zibanejad is about to start in the offensive zone with Bobby Ryan and Mike Hoffman until Dave Cameron notices his mistake and calls a timeout. Turris is sent back out with MacArthur and Stone with Hoffman as the extra attacker.

1:48 – Mike Hoffman ties it with a wrister from the top of the circles. Nice little toe-drag to change the angle and he just shoots it over Fleury’s glove. Mike Hoffman would also get a few Calder Trophy votes this year. Hard to believe that this version of the Senators would get one solid playoff run in before having to trade everyone and start over, because this exact moment is probably the time when their future burned brightest, the high watermark stone, if you will.

28.6 – The Penguins are called for too many men, and the Sens get a powerplay to finish the game and start OT. Legwand nearly wins it in the dying seconds, but of course he doesn’t, so we finally get to what we’re all here to see.

Overtime

 
3:39 – Zibanejad feeds Karlsson right in front of the net for Ottawa’s best chance on the powerplay, but it hops over Karlsson’s stick. Fleury makes his 40th save of the night on Mike Hoffman. A real sense of inevitability settles over the game now.

2:16 – Erik Karlsson turns into Erik Karlsson at a critical moment, and from there, I’m going to let Cuthbert and Ferraro play us out.

WTYKY Podcast: Episode 23


In this episode, James and Luke interview Brad Allen of hockeyprospect.com about the 1st round of the upcoming draft. Discussions include:

– Tim Stuetzle vs. Quinton Byfield
– Marco Rossi vs. Jack Quinn
– How good is Alexis Lafreniere really?
– Possible spicy first round picks
– Possible bland and mild first round picks
– Brady Tkachuk
– Yaroslav Askarov
– How big is this draft for Ottawa really?