I admit, not only did I think that January would be a make-or-break month for the Senators, I thought it would break them. They’re a decent home team, but on the road they’ve been pretty mediocre; their string of miraculous, third-period comebacks couldn’t last; Anderson’s had a lot of puck luck; they’ve been seeing a lot of backup goaltenders; and they were set to play the class of the East with two games against the deep and tenacious Flyers, the well-coached Penguins, and the Beastor Rangers.

But with seven out of a possible eight points through four games, and wins over the Devils and Lightning to start the month, Ottawa has points in 12 out of their last 13 games. Incredible.

It’s not over. There’s a West coast road trip coming up, and it ends with a game against the pretty much invincible Boston Bruins. But even if they only win a couple of their upcoming games, they’ve kept themselves afloat in January. That’s huge.

How huge? In my mind, tonight’s shutout of the Rangers was the point at which I stopped believing that this was a non-playoff team enjoying some early season success. I now think we’ll be watching Senators playoff hockey this April. They’re not pretenders. MacLean’s system is real, the talent is there, and what shortcomings exist are covered (at least lately) by luck and work habit.

Craig Anderson is .951 in his last five games. Spezza has six points and an unreal face-off win percentage in the same span. Karlsson is still wizardly. Michalek has recovered well from a concussion and has four goals in his last four. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised; we said way back during our season preview that there was no way every single player would have yet another career-worst season.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but…well, fuck the rebuild I guess. On to the hapless Habs!

(Having said that, all of the reports that Murray is a buyer at the deadline, and the brainless Sun editorials calling for trades of Noesen and Puempel for whoever, have got me freaked.  How short a memory this group seems to have. I have no doubt that the thought of at least a round’s worth of playoff revenue has got management thinking late-first-rounder-schmate-schmirst-schmounder.)

Look, I like what I’ve seen of Kyle Turris. He has a great attitude, he looks like an amazing skater, and his shot is deadly. He hasn’t looked out of place and he isn’t even fully adjusted to Ottawa’s system yet. But as I mentioned in my diplomatically titled reaction to the trade: it’s not about Turris, a player with boatloads of potential. It’s about what might have been received in exchange for David Rundblad.

Rundblad was Ottawa’s key trading chip. A top flight prospect, highly considered by every analyst who’s bothered to make their thoughts on him public, who plays in the model of Erik Karlsson, who is currently thriving in Paul McLean’s system. Ottawa needed a second line center, there’s no doubt about that, and Bryan Murray cashed in his one golden chip. And now, two articles in one day on Puck Daddy: Anaheim is open for business, and Rick Nash would waive his no trade.

Now, I’m not saying that Ottawa should pursue point-per-game Ryan Getzlaf, 25 year old three-time 30+ goal scoring Bobby Ryan, reigning Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry, or RICK FRIGGING NASH…wait, why wouldn’t we pursue those types of players? MVPs, scoring leaders, team captains, Olympians…in the case of the Anaheim players, each making reasonable salaries. Not to get all hysterical, but we’re talking about some of the best players in the league being available in an era when superstars rarely make it to UFA market, and when your team rarely has the cap space to acquire them. The only other way you get players like this is if you draft and spend years developing them.

If they go on the block, even with Rundblad Ottawa might not have enough to trade, as each will command staggering returns. But the one thing I’m positive about is that without Rundblad, Ottawa is out of any race that develops, and for good.

Look down Ottawa’s lineup, and what do they have to offer in exchange for high end players? Karlsson is untouchable at this point. Spezza is looking great, but it would be one step forward one step back to trade a top line center, even for another top line center. Michalek is playing well, and is a top six player, but might not qualify as the centerpiece of a trade package as his comfort zone is probably as a 20-25 goal scorer. Gonchar and Kuba were both written off at the beginning of the season as deadline dumps. Cowen figures huge in the franchise’s future. There are plenty of promising prospects in the system, but it would hurt too much to lose the most valuable of those, like Zibanejad. The Puempels and Noesens of the world are lottery tickets at this point. And then you’ve got the team’s 1^st round pick, which could end up anywhere between top five and bottom ten at this point.

Oh, and I guess this team could trade Turris. Apparently he can get you a player as good as David Rundblad and a 2^nd round pick.

My point being that trading any of the team’s best prospects or core players for a superstar leaves an equally big hole in the lineup down the road. Rundblad was expendable and valuable. He might have been the starting point of any trade discussion. Now, if this team is a part of trade speculation, it will be considering far more painful amputations to get it done.

I know I’m in fantasy land here, but who would you prefer as a seconde line center: Kyle Turris or Ryan Getzlaf?

Interesting post by Tyler Dellow in which he speaks about the disproportionate percentage of league revenue that comes from Canadian hockey teams. This in itself is nothing new, though it contrasts rather inconveniently with local writers and business interests who paint a picture of Canadian clubs on the edge of profitability in order to ensure 1) monopolies in their markets, and 2) some degree of fear-driven support from fans.

Melnyk’s resorted to as much, playing up how much money the team has lost in recent years and making repeated reference to a break-even point of the second round of the playoffs. In the spreadsheet Dellow links to you’ll see that Ottawa actually does fall around the middle of the pack in per game ticket revenue in 2010-2011, during which they made $45.10MM. This is just over $1MM in revenue per home game, or roughly half what Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver make. Last season Ottawa spent to the cap and had a horrible year, so you can see why Melnyk feels justified in making his annual entreaty to fans, strategically just days before tickets go on sale, to support the team. On a superficial level–you buy tickets to see the team, and they spent more on salary and operating expenses than they made on tickets–the team did lose money.

But this doesn’t tell the whole story. The spreadsheet doesn’t contain revenue from television sales, merchandising, from other events at ScotiaBank Place from which Melnyk derives pure profit (assuming fixed costs are paid out of hockey revenues), or revenues shared by all teams from the sales of NHL memorabilia. That remains under wraps. This spreadsheet–leaked to Toronto Star, as it is every year–is unhelpful because it enables those with an interest in the status quo to make the case that NHL clubs lose money on a strictly ticket-for-services basis. It also allows the owners to plead poverty in the upcoming CBA negotiations, despite Bettman’s perpetual reports of rising profits. The in-out dynamic of most profit calculation is politically motiviated, and ignores many of the residual profits associated with team ownership.

But the spreadsheet does allow us to speculate about this year’s profitability. The team is spending roughly $14MM less on salary this year than last, and is vastly more competitive. The 20th Anniversary Season and All Star Game (which you can only attend by buying ticket packages) are also pushing the brand, and revenues. Revenue per ticket may not be up, but attendance is. (Ottawa is seventh in league attendance this season, up from 11th last season.) Television revenue, heritage jersey sales, and more may contribute to a larger take. Ottawa is going to have a big, though not huge, year.

I’m not trying to portray Melnyk negatively here. He spends to the cap on salaries when appropriate, and wants to bring a Cup to Ottawa. Sometimes he seems like the most delusional Sens homer of all. He just spent $5MM on a new scoreboard, albeit one he had little choice in acquiring as the new one was literally only quasi-operational. And the team continues to include a number of money saving ticket deals for fans, from throwing in two tickets with the purchase of a jersey, to food voucher specials, to family packs of tickets for a hundred bucks. I appreciate these things, knowing they would never, ever happen in a market like Toronto. It’s just as important to consider these things part of the big picture as it is to remember that billionaire franchise owners aren’t prone to running money losing ventures.

First off…how have we never found this image before?

We’re not quite there yet, but close enough to take stock of our Senators, catalogue some reactions, and wonder about the second half of the season. In themes!

What does this mean for the rebuild?

Obviously if the team is outperforming expectations, it’s neither rational nor fair to lament a lost rebuild. I’m looking at the Islanders or Blue Jackets and am not at all jealous of them for having a shot at Nail Yakupov so much as thinking that if he ends up there Yakupov will face some serious obstacles to having a fulfilling, competitive career. The Senators have both exciting prospects (Zibanejad, Noesen, Puempel, Lehner, Prince, Silfverberg), unexpectedly exciting ones (Stone, the mysterious defenceman in Binghamton that Murray alluded to being “almost ready”), some young players already performing beyond expectations (Karlsson, Cowen) and some X factors (DaCosta, Filatov). More than enough, one might think, to elevate what is already there to something more.

But there are still plenty of questions for a team that is, even with all pistons pumping, essentially a bubble team, and one with too many question marks to seriously trouble a team like the Bruins, Penguins, Flyers or Rangers. (I keep Florida off that list because, seriously, does anyone know what that team is about now? Would you be surprised if they went 21-21 for the rest of the season?) Players like Kuba and Alfredsson mean a lot for the team’s success so far this season, and the picks or prospects they might yield in a deadline trade won’t be useful for three or four seasons. A playoff round’s worth of ticket revenue might be worth the longterm depth of this team.

This seems evidenced by Murray’s decision to roll the dice on Kyle Turris, who has looked pumped to be playing in a hockey market, but who cost the team a lot in their best prospect and a pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole strategy of conservative building goes out the window if the team shows a strong, six-game loss in the first round—even if that means more prospects leaving town, or free agent acquisitions.

This is a fickle market, but I don’t think there’s ever been a time when the fan base was more amenable to doing what was necessary to build a contender. It’s easy to get swept up in exciting hockey, and I’m all for building a winning culture. But I don’t want to see this team mortgage depth for another year of “anything can happen in the playoffs” attitude.

Is the team playing above their heads?

With Karlsson leading defencemen in scoring, Spezza having flirted with top ten in scoring, and Michalek with the lead in goals, this team has players who, occasionally, are among the best in the league. Not to take anything away from their stellar play, but that’s not something you can count on season in and season out, and it’s one of the main reasons Ottawa is where they are in the standings. A couple of key injuries, and the Senators are in a world of trouble. Heading into the second half of the season, you might expect these players to tail off a bit. Or they might put together a full season, but it’s best to plan around a more modest forecast than to say “this is the new norm.” Especially with Daniel Alfredsson, their best all around player, considering retirement.

Are the Senators as bad as everyone thought they were at the beginning of the year? Of course not. We all predicted a bottom ten, maybe a bottom five finish, but anyone familiar with their lineup, and who didn’t become enamored with other teams’ acquisitions (Jeff Carter was going to turn the Blue Jackets into a scoring machine?) knew better than to pencil in the worst. But realistically, this is a team that will miss the playoffs. I hope they bust all of those paper bag predictions, but it looks the case.

Goaltending. Sigh.

The more things change…

No one could have predicted that after being traded for Craig Anderson, playing himself out of a qualifying offer from Colorado, and then being signed as a backup in St. Louis that Brian Elliott would be among the best tenders in the league. Similarly, no one could have thought after Anderson’s play down the stretch that he would be one of the weakest links on a defensively porous team. He may face more shots than all but two other teams it the league (Dallas and Minnie, for those keeping track, who have also succeeded by outscoring their opposition), but his numbers are atrocious. Alex Auld has not proven himself capable of stealing the starting job, and Robin Lehner still lacks a lot of maturity. One hopes that Anderson’s performance will trend upward in the second half of the season, but it’s hard to get excited about what we see there today. I hated the four year deal when it came down—and I’m an Anderson fan, I was when he was in Florida—so all we can do now is hope for the best.

What to do in the offseason?

Getting waaaaay ahead of myself here, but there are some key questions heading into 2012. Karlsson and Foligno are due new deals, and we know at least the first of those will involve an enormous pay raise. If they receive $7M and $3M per year respectively, the team allows Kuba, Carkner and Winchester to walk, Alfie stays for the last year of his deal, and all other RFAs remain at about the same pay, that’s about $18M in cap space. (Including a bunch of buyouts coming off the books.) That’s a lot of coin to play with, unless this team wants to maintain an internal cap. (Gotta pay for that scoreboard, if the heritage jersey sales haven’t already.) You have to wonder if the team will consider one of the premier free agents—does Ryan Suter make it to market? How about Zach Parise? Does the team go for a second tier player like Huselius, or does Murray reunite with Dustin Penner for a good ol’ fashioned reclamation project?

Answer: the rest of the Northeast Division (minus the Bruins)

The Senators, now in a golden age of Reasonable Expectations, can only compare positively to most of their Northeastern brethren.

As I’ve already written about on this blog, the Sabres stink. Not just as a matter of luck, but to their very core, as if to stink is to answer an existential quandary. It’s their identity. How else do you explain their blind faith in Lindy Ruff and Darcy Regier after so many years of mediocrity? The commitment to players like Derek Roy, Paul Gaustad and the disgusting Patrick Kaleta? Pegula might get around to firing Regier, which then makes the firing of Ruff possible, but the damage is already done. They’re only in the first year of those brutal Erhoff and Leino contracts. Imagine how much more awful this team will be with about $10M coming off the cap next year. I can’t wait for them to pay Alex Semin all that money, only to conclude once again that “it will all depend on Ryan Miller!”

In Toronto, Brian Burke needs about four assistant GMs so that he can continue to make asinine decisions based entirely on his all-important sense of integrity, whether it be not to avail himself of the mechanisms permitted under the CBA, or to impose restrictions observed by no other team, or to, ludicrously and hilariously, renew Ron Wilson’s contract for absolutely no discernible reason beyond their apparent friendship and shared values. For this he is the highest paid GM in the history of the sport. If they miss the playoffs again by a few points, their story will become the stuff of Greek tragedies.

And then, finally, there’s Montreal, AKA Bizarro Land, where some actually fantasize about bringing back the GM who traded for Gomez, and signed Camalleri and Gionta, and where it falls well within the confines of etiquette and reason to set police cars on fire no matter what the results of a game. Every decision they make this season results in a worse team than the day before. Two more months and they’ll be having discussions about buy-outs and blowing it up. Except that it’s Montreal, so they’ll talk about Rocket Richard and then also put in a bid for Alex Semin.

Toronto and Montreal are both subject to the same temporary insanity we’re accustomed to with all large market teams. Philadelphia and New York act no saner. Theirs are systems with tyrant leaders, whose intuition is treated as scripture, whose credibility in the old boys’ world of hockey is capital. That Buffalo now aspires to be one of this group is just amazing. Let them sit at the popular kids’ table and eat each other alive.

If it wasn’t for Boston, who right now are basically invincible, the Northeast would be the most schizophrenic, irrational, hopelessly lost in all of hockey. And as Ottawa enters the 2nd year of their accelerated rebuild, we should pause and give thanks. They’ll be right where they are now as our window of contention opens, living their perpetual crisis. I can’t wait for it.

James

Release the Krackhead…BOOOOOOOOOOOM

I am warming up to this trade I suppose. A huge part of such warming comes with the fact that the trade DONE been made and there’s no undoing it now so might as well think of some of the potential. If you take into account a lot of the prospects looking to move up next season it almost seems like the Sens have two whole sets of teams in the works let alone just a log jam at defense (keeping in mind that Filatov was just sent back to CCCP Srebrenica and DaCosta demoted), the Sens have bodies. I think there’re a lot of exciting players in the mix and logically there’s not room for urrybody. Someone, someone likely very good, was going to get flipped at some point and we as fans would do our jobs and get angry. The real rub of this situation (and I mean in a bad way) is the pedigree and potential of the guy who got flipped. I think if we fans were a week ago leaked the knowledge that a Sens rookie was on the move and asked to make a list of most likely to be traded at the top and least likely at the bottom Rundblad would be more certain to be found in the basement than THIS GUY. Listen, it HURT to hear Rundblad was gone. I got a text from Steven walking down Rideau street and was literally stopped dead in my tracks by the news. I was just saying to someone on Friday night that after attending a few games the last couple of weeks that it appears that once Rundblad can start making his decisions just a split second earlier he could approach Karlsson heights of dominawesomeness. Similar to the Filatov situation before him, I don’t think I’m alone in having the notion that we barely got half a look at the kid’s game. Gone is the organization’s prime prospect AND A Pick. And a pick. You guys, is this the worst or is it not necessarily the worst?

Some people are saying this is Murray cow towing (does ANYONE know what that means? Sound off in the comment section or @wtyky with answers/suggestions) to a playoff push. What? I don’t really see acquiring Kyle Turris as that at all. I think that the deficiency at centre has been the most talked about issue of this season (and the off season: see our HOTTT preseason predictions in the achieves for more! Or don’t!) and Murray has been upfront in communications with the media that he was still looking to add a top 6 forward via trade. Yes, Foligno has been filling in admirably at centre and yes Regin is back and YES DaCosta and Zibanejad (who’s 18 btw) are waiting in the wings but I don’t really believe most NHL GMs think about things like this. I think Murray might see it more as…

1. By around this time last year Spezza was juuuuust about ready to shut ‘er down for an extended period on the IR which saw the team win ONE motherfucking game in a month without him.
2(a). Peter Regin cant even take draws right now because his shoulder has been reconstructed using melted down California Raisins figurines.
2(b) He has a winger who just took TWO knee on knees in a couple days potentially taking draws against the likes of Malkin/Staal, anyone on the Bruins, Scott Gomez (KIIIIIIIIIIIIDDIIIIIIIING but you get the idea)…Im sorry but …yikes
3. Zibanejad looking really awesome but far from ready at 18 years old. Maybe they want to give him 2 years to develop. No need to rush him…like Kyle Turris was uhhh…moving on… Ottawa needed more depth at centre for sure just hot holy shit that was a spicy toaster strudel of a price tag. One sunny side I will offer up about the pain of seeing a 2nd round pick – and this is coming from the guy who has said all year, ‘do what you gotta do Murray just DON’T SURRENDER PICKS, is that … by trade deadline, that pick will be recovered. Right Kuba!?

A lot of bandwidth has been spent on the “Emergence of Jared Cowen” being the impetus of this trade. YOWZERS I hope that’s not the case. That would be on some “what have you done for me lately” type shit that saw Da Costa getting thunderous applause at the introductions at the home opener for scoring one goal and Gonchar and Kuba getting booed for playing poorly in the first week. In the coming years I think we’ll see, as we are seeing now, that Cowen isn’t some Phillips/Carks style shutdownbot 3000. The kid was told to “contribute more offensively” in his last year at Spokane and posted 48 points in 58 games up 18 from a still respectable 30 in 59 the previous season. The kid’s not just a bulldozer, he’s got a little swag. Maybe the organization has more faith in Weircioch than we realize. Maybe this has less to do with blue line mobility and more to do with leaving the offense to King K, Cowen, maybe one other (Gonchar sticking around?) and looking more to bolster the CRYSTAL CLEAR defensive lapses the team suffers from with the likes of Lee, Borowecki, Gryba, Blood…I don’t know. Im just saying…maybe in the end they sold high on….well, an incredible asset.

That said: Maybe they sold stupidly low. I think one of the most painful things in the inevitable comparisons in years to come is that even if Turris works out well, we WILL be forever a touch burned on this trade. In that all Sens fans that are smart and good looking and have the same opinion as me, know that Rundblad is going to be amazing. It will always suck to see him excelling on another team a la Brooks Laich…but maybe more so.
The Filatov debacle is still smarting like …I don’t know…getting kicked in your area by Condoleezza Rice? And this feels like this situations could be Filatov on steroids. To get burned AND lose Rundbald will be…well it will be Bryan Murray’s retirement party no doubt.

So it seems Murray paid up to win the Turris sweepstakes. I suppose that unlike Filatov there were actually sweepstakes to obtain him…so that’s nice. Also unlike Filatov, Turris, I think is a lock for the top 6, more ice time, is not a flight risk and will more opportunity to play, though for his sake I hope they integrate him slowly as there will be a need for some adjustment time. Go easy in the meantime everyone. At least the Sens will improve in the shootout.which should come in handy when Auld is in net. OHHHH and Turris will reportedly be wearing number 7. Sound off in the comment section whether you think this is MORE delicious or LESS delicious than him wearing number 91.

Here we go…

Varada

Most of my thoughts are documented in that hate-tastic rant from the weekend. (And you know I’ve got to hate something to post on a weekend.) But I’ve had a couple of days to think about it, to weigh some of the excellent opinions and reactions on the web, and to consider my position from new perspectives. And yeah. I still hate this trade.
 
I’m excited to see Turris. I’m glad I availed myself of that Groupon for Sens tickets, because now I get to see him in action on Thursday. (Side note: was this trade all a way to sell more Groupons?) Nothing against the kid, center depth is important, and I’ve said all year that it’s only a matter of time before Spezza spends at least a few games hurt, and I’m not sold on Regin as a 20 minute a night man, at which time you either recall DaCosta (playing pretty well in the AHL, by the way) or play Zack Smith as your first line center. So we have options now that we didn’t before. And this is good.
 
But if there was any year that could be sacrificed in the name of having a truly terrifying team 2-3 seasons from now, it’s this one. Yeah, Cowen is playing great, and Karlsson is the new sliced bread. But that doesn’t mean there’s no room for Rundblad. It means you can roll a solid defence without having to play your top pairing to death.

As for the whole thing about Gonchar and Kuba coming back…really? Gonchar and Kuba who everyone has been mentally trading in their head from the moment they were brought in? Or maybe one of the best prospects in the game should have been traded because Phillips was re-signed? Ugh.
 
This is a huge risk. Massive. And it might work out, but we don’t even really have a sense of what “working out” looks like. If Turris puts up, what, 30 points, how will we feel? I have hopes for this trade, but the value just doesn’t seem right.

Varada

The Ottawa Sun earned a lot of respect during that period for their nuanced, measured response to a contentious issue.

I don’t think there’s much debate that at the time of the Dany Heatley deal, Ottawa was thoroughly fleeced. Heatley was a prennial all-star, a cornerstone of the franchise, and the perfect trigger-man for the team’s other big-ticket player, Jason Spezza.

The return was underwhelming, if not quite Luongo-for-Bertuzzi bad. Milan Michalek was seen as a good all-around player with pedigree, albeit one with injury concerns and signed on a contract that escalated each year. Jonathan Cheechoo was a good team player but a reclamation project, and was soon given up on. (His buy-out cap hit is still on the books in 2011-2012.) The 2nd round pick was useful insofar as it got the team some deadline assistance, but is long-gone. In return, San Jose received a bona fide scorer, even if he couldn’t replicate his 50 goal days playing alongside one of the league’s best playmakers.

I still remember the day the trade came down, and thinking there was no way Murray would have agreed to such a lopsided return. Then, as is usually the case with Twitter, the story was verified by about 700 additional people, and I went for beers.

It’s all about timing, and the fact that Ottawa’s window of contention was slammed shut that much faster while San Jose went to two Conference Finals in a row will always skew this trade in the Sharks’ favor. We also can’t ignore that Cheechoo cost Ottawa millions without bringing much in the way of value.

But two seasons later, and the deal isn’t looking quite so horrible anymore. Milan Michalek has really come into his own this season. At a very reasonable $4.3 million cap hit, he’s on pace for 47 goals and 67 points, and he plays in all situations. He’s becoming a leader, both on the ice and in the dressing room. And he’s a steadying presence no matter where he’s placed in the lineup, unlike Heatley, who was seen as someone who had to play with either Spezza or Alfredsson to make use of his ability to find open ice.

Dany Heatley, on the other hand, is on pace for 20 goals and 47 points, which would be a career low. He’s making a whopping $8 million this season, with a cap hit of $7.5 million. The thing is, Minnesota isn’t a high-scoring team, and Dany Heatley is still playing close to 20 minutes a night. They also happen to be tops in the league right now, sitting above the ultra-competitive Western Conference and playing stellar hockey.

Ottawa has earned its wins this season by overcoming its terrible defense and outscoring the competition. Minnesota has won through a stingy, system-wide defensive strategy. While Michalek has overtaken Heatley’s point-scoring potential, determining who is the better player, and thus who won the trade (2011-2012 Edition) has a lot to do with who has the better two-way game.

Michalek’s On-Ice CORSI rating is 6.50, with about 15 minutes of even-strength ice time a game. Reasonable, but not amazing, reflecting the tendency for Ottawa to give up a lot of shots. Heatley’s, however, is -10.08 with about the same amount of ice time. Part of this is Michalek’s unreal shooting percentage through the first half of the season (20%!). Part of it is just that Heatley, well…sort of stinks.

CORSI and point production aren’t the whole picture of course, but they are preliminary indicators. And if Heatley isn’t scoring, it also doesn’t look like his defensive game is making up for it. The Wild are winning despite Dany Heatley, not because of him, and with three years left on his deal one has to wonder if Ottawa got out from under a boondoggle of a contract. Which brings us to the other factor in Ottawa’s advantage, which is the cap space.

If you argue that the team’s run to the Finals in 2007 was an anomaly, and that they should have started a rebuild soon after because of Muckler’s mismanagement of prospects, then perhaps Heatley doesn’t even receive the contract offer from Ottawa. But he did, and the fact that they could move one of their big-ticket contracts is a huge plus. That San Jose chose to move that contract too is telling. Were Ottawa to try to move Heatley today, they might not have even landed what they got in 2009.

Ottawa’s performance over the last two or three seasons has been hugely disappointing, but it’s very gratifying to see a team with the sixth lowest payroll in the league overperform the way they are. Milan Michalek is a huge part of that process, and it took Dany Heatley to get him. Sens fans can take some comfort now in feeling like they may have come out ahead after so much of hearing how they were screwed.

If we let Nikita dye his hair, next thing you know Anton Chigur will cattle spike you in the brain. It's a dismal tide.

I’ve held off on commenting on the unfortunate situation developing around Nikita Filatov, if only because Ottawa has an equally unfortunate history of dumping on Russian players at the slightest notice of trouble. It lowers us to our basest demeanor, and I loathe to invite more “Shut up and go back to the KHL” nuance around one of our most talented prospects.

No one is promised a spot on the team: you have to earn it. That’s the mantra. To refrain from enforcing this principle is to subject the team’s system, its sense of identity, its very being to anarchy. This is roughly the logical equivalent of a politician’s position on ‘family values’ for fear of rampant violence, even if no one can agree on what the family values, or the violence, will look like.

My argument is that the risk inherent to showing what might be perceived as slight favoritism is much, much smaller than the risk of not allowing a high-pedigree, very skilled player the opportunity to prove himself, and thereby losing him to more lucrative contracts in his home country. Obvious point, maybe, but why exactly have we not seen Nikita Filatov on Ottawa’s powerplay? Why have we not seen him playing with Jason Spezza, which everyone and their brother predicted the moment news of the trade broke?

It’s also completely unclear what Filatov has done to earn himself such harsh skepticism. In his six games (out of 21) with the club, he’s only once received more than 10 minutes of ice time. His linemates have been Eric Condra and Zenon Konopka, which is like asking a surgeon to perform an appendectomy with a dump truck. He had one assist and was +1. Compare to Mika Zibanejad, who, having never played in the NHL, and at three years younger than Filatov, received three more games, about eight to 10 more shifts per game, and also had one assist but was a -3. Or Da Costa, who continues to play game after game, even though clearly out of his depth and now chronically underutilized. Granted, Zibanejad and Da Costa are centers on a team perilously shallow down the middle, but the fact remains that the Filatov has done everything asked of his teammates – and more, given they weren’t asked to go to the AHL, where Filatov now leads the team in goal scoring – and doesn’t seem to have earned the same respect or opportunities.

Maybe I’m just a fan of skill. As the team’s powerplay comes back to earth and the team’s 5-on-5 GF:GA ratio continues to sit somewhere in the bottom third of the league, I wonder why the team is so much more willing to give players like Nick Foligno the benefit of the doubt. (Hey, I like Foligno, this is more about giving other plays a chance than taking his away.) Filatov’s cup of coffee with the club didn’t last nearly long enough, if his fourth line minutes count at all, and already the team is struggling to create chances or get shots on net. As if creativity and offense isn’t exactly the reason Filatov was drafted 6th overall, and called the purest offensively gifted player available that year.

Now we have word that Filatov is meeting with Murray to discuss his future, and rumours that he’s considering a return to Russia to play in the KHL, where he’ll surely be paid better, be treated like a pro, and maybe even get to play some ice hockey from time to time. Does this kid in fact have an enormous attitude problem? Are there secret dangers that lurk beneath the surface of his game which endanger the entire system on which the Senators are currently surprising the league (err, by not being terrible)?

Or is the team as prone to their arbitrary preferences and prejudices as Senators fans can be? It’s a total mystery at this point what Bryan Murray’s motivations are, or their expectations for this player. Do they see him being a part of the club beyond this year? Why give up a third round pick if not? The trade for Filatov still has the potential to be a huge steal for Ottawa. It would be a shame if the team lost out on that opportunity for the sake of come nebulous concept of control.

UPDATE 12:46pm: James is a longwinded shithead that cant just let Varada make a point and be done with it.

James

I’m almost all the way with you on this one but there are a still a few issues for me. The DaCosta/Zibanejad thing is a different ball of wax (thing?) as you pointed out, both are centres, and I felt in my gut (science) the whole time that as an 18 year old Mika was going back to the land of Volvos and assemble it yourself cabinetry after 9 games. Which, who knows, may turn out to be far fewer games than Filatov will end up getting this season. If Filatov was a centre, I bet he’d be playing in Ottawa steadily. That said, I’m also a little confused as to why the kid’s hardly gotten top 6 time / much ice time at all in the games he’s been in. It makes me think that it is a bit of a waste of an asset to give up a 3^rd rounder for a guy who as of right now is an AHL player. Considering we have a rookie 7^th round pick on our first line and a (two time!) third rounder in net, quantity of selections can be just as important as quality especially during a rebuild.

Anyway, this whole Russian bias thing…do Ottawa fans really have it? Or do we just kind of have shithead fatigue? As far as Russians go, sure overall we hated Kovalev but we all loved us some Volchy Bear. I think both of those guys merited their fan sentiment. As for the Russian Sub in the room, Yashin…2 contract holdouts? That guy would have to be FROM Ottawa to earn more jeers for doing that. Basically he was the Russian Heatley (Heater probably holds the crown for the most hated Sen ever and is Canadian as McCain Deep and Delicious Cake despite being born in Germania). If perhaps there appears a bias in regards to Ottawa drafting Ruskies until the KHL transfer agreement unsketchifies itself, it’s just smart GMing to go easy on selecting our friends to the East in a post-Alexander Radulov paradigm. Note to Radulov: Congratulations on your recent winning of the Whatever the KHL Championship Cup Is Called CUP! The OTHER Svenska Mästare!
All this said, I more or less GET why Filatov might jet to the world’s 3^rd best league for the reasons you outlined. Money, fame, home cooked borsht. It’s not an outlandish desire at all. I think its frustrating to be in a line of work where your career could end at any moment from an injury and you’re stuck in upstate New York making as much as a dude who sells speakers out of the back of a van (Note to dude: STILL waiting on those speakers, bro. I’m not MADE of waiting in this parking lot.) On the other side of the coin, it is still very early in the season. I remember wanting Butler to get called up so bad as he was tearing up the AHL and the Big Boy Sens couldn’t score to save their lives. When Butsy did get his shot (in I believe the second half of the season) he got the same start in the bottom 6 Filatov got only he had to wait much longer for it. The fact that this Filatov thing has gotten a little ugly pre-December is concerning. The leaking of his potential desire to go back to Russia (which he’s done once already in his short pro career btw) may very well end up serving as the nail in the coffin of his NHL career. Maybe Sens mangement have reason to believe that the kid is bolting at season’s end whether they give him 6 games or 60 games and don’t want to use an NHL roster spot to help him pad the prelim to his contract negotiations with CSKA Moscow. Especially so when it could come at the expense of the development of THE DOGMAN….who admittedly captured my heart long ago.

Another important area of concern is that MAYBE THIS KID IS A SHITHEAD. IIIIIIIIII’m not even totally sure I believe this  whole ‘Filly don’t do rebounds’ story and even if its not true or exaggerated, there’s red flags a plenty elsewhere, this kid has already been basically given away by a team that could probably use his offense more than any team in the league right now after picking him 6^th, he was stripped of his captaincy of the Russian junior squad, apparently for being an entitled shithead – in the opinion of his Russian coach I might add, AND was read the riot act (along with Butler) by MacLean for dogging it during practice in Ottawa.

After suffering through a team that was clearly a terrible vibe last season, maybe the kid didn’t really turn over a new leaf after all and Murray and MacLean don’t really have time for it. Especially with a lot of eager kids with tons of talent in the pipe. In my opinion, even though I think Alex Ovechkin is the most beloved (sorry Crosby a lot peoples cant stands yuh) and marketable (bring back that amazing “Midnight Filings” ad) player in the league I agree that there is some defintie xenophobia toward Russian players in the NHL. Though I am sensitive to this, I don’t want to give Filatov a free pass because he’s Russian so much as I don’t want to stick up for Kyle Turris because he’s Canadian. Both are red flag/big gamble players to me. It’s a long season and I think Filatov (and/or his handlers) might have played their hand a little bit too early. Maybe they didn’t. I still very much want to see him play in the NHL for the Sens and I think he’s made a strong case since this controversy started. The question is: Is his sudden burst of productivity in Binghamton a good sign or a bad sign?

Varada

Well, we’re about a 1/4 way through the season at this point, so it seems like a good time to do a good ol’ roundtable exploring whether or not the team has met expectations. What have been your biggest impressions so far? Predictions for the rest of the year? Disappointments?

Me:

The team is playing a system: Probably the number one reason Ottawa is a bubble team when most were expecting them to run away with last place and the ‘lowly’ crown in every headline. They’ve overcome mediocre goaltending. They’ve overcome the loss of their captain and best all around player for a long period of time. They’ve overcome playing with about 156 rookies on the team. They’ve overcome long, challenging road trips, and being blown out early, and going 1-5 to start the year. They’ve overcome being scored on first almost all the time, and come back from huge deficits. And they’ve done all of this without being carried by any one or two players. Their depth in scoring, and a handful of unremarkable defencemen (our special little guy notwithstanding), are coming through for them nightly. That has to be the system. Not a brilliant system or anything. Just a system. Good to see a team buying in 100% when for all of these years they’ve been typecast as coach killing, unreachable stars.

Karlsson really, really is that good: 25+ minutes a night. Will probably score 50 points by the end February. Plays in all situations. Some game nights it’s like he’s out there the whole time. Do I need to point out again that he’s in his third season??? That’s incredible. Ottawa has its new franchise defenceman, and I sincerely hope that his next deal is of the long-term variety.

Streaky, but good streaky: This team’s been streaky before, but it was due to some freak occurrence, like Brian Elliott suddenly becoming unbeatable. The team is streaky again, but not due to any one player’s sudden surge. They truly do win and lose as a team. Better yet: they seem to actually be learning from it.

We’re finally seeing what a healthy Michalek looks like: I was never one to expect him to score 30 goals every season, just be a 20 goal ceiling, solid two-way guy. But the way he’s playing now explains his high draft position, why San Jose thought to sign him to a contract that pays $6M in its final year, and why Murray thought he was good enough to be the central piece of a deal for a two-time 50 goal All Star. Michalek has come into his own. He would never have been more than depth in San Jose, but in Ottawa he’s leading the team. He probably deserves a letter on his jersey at some point.

Filip Kuba is better than you think he is: Not spectacular, of course. But a guy who can play 20+ minutes a night of NHL hockey is a valuable asset, and exactly the kind of depth a team needs in the playoffs when one of their top four goes down with an injury. This guy is going to get the Senators good pick at the deadline. Or, if they’re hanging around the bubble, I expect them to hold on to him.

Alfredsson has a really tough choice to make: This is it. Probably his last year to try and win a cup. It’s not going to be with this team, even if they make the playoffs. Murray has said it’s up to him what he wants to do, and the team will accomodate. But if they’re in a playoff position, how does he demand a trade? (Surreal alternate reality moment: imagine he gets traded to, say, Vancouver, and then Ottawa goes on a freak run to the Finals and has to play against him. If this happens, I expect every reader of the blog to send me $5.)

This team is not only a lot of fun, it’s the team Sens fans have always wanted: They may lose the occasional game to a team like the Sabres or Cancuks, who are spending about a trillion dollars more on salary, but they’re doing so in a way that makes me admire their foundation moreso than their opponents’. I don’t know how many games I’ve seen where a line with Foligno, Da Costa and Condra will pen the puck in the attacking zone while tens of millions worth of the opposition’s salary lazily float around the blueline waiting for a breakout pass. Ottawa is finally the lunchpail team that fans started dreaming of back when they were losing to the Leafs in the playoffs. Hockey is a capricious game: a flukey bounce or two can make a rebuilding team seem like world beaters. That’s why even the best teams out there have to have the fundamentals right. I’m glad it’s the other fan bases that are struggling with that concept now. The Sens finally seem to have it figured out.

Prediction: We’re probably still not a playoff team: Obvioulsy I would love nothing more than to see this team defy all expectations and Colorado Avalanche their way into the playoffs through the sheer will of guys like Zach Smith, Eric Condra, Kaspar Daugavins, and Colin Greening. It’s as if they don’t really know that they’re not supposed to win out there. But this team is also being skated into the ground. Their system is based on out-skating and out-working the competition, and while that might make for some surprising victory’s this early on, it’s only going to get harder as the season progresses. When juggernauts like Vancouver get rolling, you’re not going to see them only putting up 24 shots like they did last night against the Sens. And these young kids have never played a full NHL season. And we also haven’t had to play a game without Spezza yet. (Still dreading Da Costa as our number one center.) Finally, the team is barely hanging on the eighth seed with two or three more games played than everyone below them. When you add it all up, the team is probably finishing outside of the playoff picture. Still, I’ll take it: the team is far, far better than anyone expected, and is perhaps only a few pieces and a year or two’s development away from contention. Not bad, considering all of these 4-5 year predictions we were hearing in September.

Pete

My two cents:

Definitely enjoying the secondary scoring, that was a huge hole during last season. One half of the equation of why there were so many guys with atrocious, mind-bogglingly bad +/-. Karlsson has been awesome too. I think it’s time to back up the smelts truck for King K.

This team is an awesome draw, watching them on TV is a fun exercise. Trying to guess who is going to come up with which contribution is the best part. Could have sworn Konopka scored on this road swing (Brick crashes through patio door) Whaaaaa? He did! As an aside games are really fun to go to as well. Watching the Edmonton game with its tired re-tread of classic rock sound track was just painful. I know they need a new barn but can we chip in for some new records? @senatorsdj is spinning circles around these guys. The game day experience is fun again! Especially when Varada cracks into the suite’s beer fridge like a raccoon prying open a garbage can!

Notice I haven’t mentioned the p-word yet? I’m not so concerned with the playoffs. I think there’s still alot of room for draft picks on this club (btw Prince of our hometown barber poles is become worth the price of admission in the house that Andrew Cassels built). To be fair I don’t think a first round exit benefits these guys. I will disagree with Varada about the whole stamina thing. These guys logged a ton of minutes in AHL last year on their cup march. It doesn’t seem they’re acutely aware of their failings anyways.

Segwaaaaaaaaay: Coaching, this is the biggest difference. Varada hinted at the specifics of a system but I’m going to go one further and reference a possible culture change. Obviously I have no insight into the locker room (do they still call Carks “Snot Eye”?) And until Ian Mendes changes his twitter pic to an image of him gazing lovingly into the eyes of our beloved Walrus, (srsly check his profile pic to see some serious eye-banging) we’ll never know. Basically, all the secondary scoring and playing above expectations leads me to believe that the kool-aid is being guzzled hard core. And I say huzzah for them. Don’t the world tell you you’re the Andrews sisters when really you’re the Pointer sisters.

What to look for: David Rundblad is a Radio Department song come to life. Peter Regin, Chris Neil and Snot Eye are on they way back. Who gets the boot? Kaspar and his penalty kill trio are the talk of the town. How do you mess with that?

(PARENTHETICAL THOUGHTS CARRY MORE WEIGHT, IT’S SCIENCE)

James

Remember that show Parker Lewis Can’t Lose? Neither do I but if I did I would imagine that the Ottawa Senators are pretty comparable to Parker Lewis right now.

I don’t mean they can’t lose games as they’ve shown they have the gumption to lose when the time comes, but to me they are in an ideal situation when it comes to where they end up at season’s end. Playoffs? Pffffffft, WOW, they’d be our special little miracles. The Anderstud of old has done it before and as I always say (?) anything’s possible in the NHL. If they were to defy all odds, likely they get killed by the no1 seed that they’d no doubt have to face in round 1 (please don’t be the fucking Penguins AGAIN if that happens) but triple sparkly gold stars for everyone for surpassing the EFF out of my expectations back in training camp. Tank in the latter half of the season? Ottawa is who they were “supposed” to be and picks up a healthy draft position. The fact that Murray has gone on record saying that he will not sacrifice the plan and the team’s future for a hot streak has given me peace of mind that this is going to be a fun season of ups and downs and very realistic expectations. Mistakes are allowed, hard work is rewarded, goals are getting scored, goaltending has not been a pile of microwaved garbage so far…this team is fun to watch and there’s only a load of prospects on the way.

Other Impressions at the Quarter Mark:

Doin’ The Right Thingz: A Spike ME Joint

Managing to land Paul MacLean, Dave Cameron AND Mark Reeds for the coaching staff. Look, haters gunna hate lovers gonna love, people were talkin’ smack about how MacLean’s success in Detroit wont translate, Cameron’s in Melnyk’s pocket, yadda yadda yadda talking aaaaaaaaaall this mouth full of garbage. Well, garbagemouths, like Varada said, the coaching staff quite clearly have the team motivated, have actually got them playing a system (bonus: a system that is entertaining to watch!), scoring, and playing damn respectable hockey for a squad of greenhorn rookies and vets who are almost exclusively coming off career worst years. So far so good gents!

Probably the biggest thing for me as a fan is that I could not be happier to see a team that doesn’t go into games looking like a bunch of 15 year olds being forced by their parents to attend their neighbour’s kid’s First Communion on a Saturday morning. Could this year be any greater proof of how bad a vibe the Sens’ dressing room must have been under Clouston? I don’t want to start too much of a Cloustie beat down but it looks like night and day out there. I think we haven’t seen the last of CC in the NHL but MacLean has shown that you have to throw in the odd pat on the back to mix up the finger wags. Klustie the Klown aside, even the mere injection of youth has (probably) got the shitty Latvian/Swedish house music blasting in the dressing room while the younsters huddle in front of DaCosta’s locker to play a spirited game of Pogs (for keepsies). Unlike last year when everyone would solemnly gather ‘round Old Man Phillips’ stall while he sipped a tincture of port and rutabaga juice and spoke quietly about how bad the food was during the war.

Bryan Murray: You had me at “wont sacrifice the future.” *Throws bucket of cold water on face* I LIKE the new BryMurr! I was also really, really impressed when despite Peter Regin’s fresh injury, he STILL sent Mika Zibanejad back to Svenska. I think I would have buckled and kept him as soon as Regin went down. Showed some guts to make the right move. NEXT year’s the bigger year. Also, Pumpel, Noeson, Prince, Pageau, Stone all making Murray look good right now in the junior ranks. Let’s hope a couple of those guys work out.

Don’t look now but Filip Kuba might fetch something at the deadline! Guy is playing quite well. Starting to make me think we were pretty effing hard on the guy through his back and leg injuries. Still wouldn’t kill the guy to throw a hit…actually maybe it would. . . leave that to Mighty Karlsson. BTW can we keep Gonchar? This is the guy I used to hate out there. Keep up the good work!

More on Karlsson, I think when we are on the other side of this rebuild and begin to see the future become the present, we’ll be looking at King K not only as the defenseman with eleventy trillion points but also as the Shaemus in short pants who kept the team exciting through the blurst of times. I know it was he and not a lot of other dudes who kept me tuning in and buying tickets last season. I agree with Pete, let’s leave a giant thing of riches on his front step.

Jared Cowen may not be the sexiest story of the young season but his absence from the moans and groans of comment sections shows how smoothly he has taken to his 16 mins a game. Phillips aint getting any younger and is more effective in an increasingly reduced role. This development seems to be going well. Defense is one of the toughest positions to look competent at and the kid’s been lookin’…competent!

First line looking like a first line out there. Though it has been stated the secondary scoring has been what’s kept this team hovering around .500 the first line has been great too! Everyone who said Spezza and Michalek have zero chemistry was bang on. Right? Right? RIIIIIIIIIIIGHT? Wrong. My take is that Greening is a combo of hard-nosed work and physicality and part (courtesy of Jason Spezza) “Whoa, how did the puck just get on my stick?! I’d better shoot it!” right place at right time goodness that is part of playing on a gifted centre’s wing.

Pretty awesome when your biggest disappointment has been Milan Michalek’s inability to jump from second to first place in the NHL scoring race. That and wanting so badly for Erik Karlsson to rub the lead in assists in Daniel Sedin’s bulbous, bulbous face. Even if it’s just for a little while. IT’S ASKING A LOT. Maybe my biggest disappointment lays in this Filatov mess. Regardless of each and every one of our important and special feelings about this situation I’m talking more about how it’s disappointing that despite having a feel good team we didn’t get ONE year off from a distracting controversy of some sort. That said, another thing is that he was brought on board in the last year of his ELC I would like to see what he can do. Ditto David Rundblad. I completely get that the team’s been doing surprisingly well in stretches, the coach has to show that though spots are up for grabs they won’t be given away and also may not want to mess with a good thing he has going but I don’t know…auditions for all! It’s early, let’s hope the kids in waiting can keep a Brian Leeesque stiff upper lip while serving time in the press box/ in the minors.

X Factor: The Eastern Conference. Up is down, Florida is good, Alex Semin has fewer points than Nick Foligno, Brian Elliot is a marquee goaltender [Ed’s Note: (We have an Ed?) St. Louis is in the West, but that is pretty effed up]. I don’t know where you pixies came from but I sure do like your pixie drink. The East is so messed up it’s like the Wild West – YOU CANT WRITE A BETTER ANALOGY THAN THAT!!!!!!!! There are of course some reliable factors, the Rangers we’ll always be middle of the pack mayonnaise and the Penguins will continue to kick people’s buns now that they have what looks to be a player so hungry he’s gunna bite someone’s arm off back in their lineup. Though I am starting to get a bit nervous about the ongoing season and the thinness at centre I am looking forward to checking back in with you guys around the all star break…you know, or whenever. Sorry this was so long…oh what’s that? The Sens don’t play until Friday? You’re welcome this is so long.