Here’s a thing I do now! Unapologetically ripped off from Puck Daddy, I’ll spend about twenty minutes dicking around on NHL’s stats page and look for interesting information about the Senators. It is presented here without context or insight.

Enjoy!

6: Number of games in which Ottawa has not allowed a power play goal. They’ve gone 19 for 19 on the penalty kill during that span. In the last 10 games they’ve risen from dead last in the league to 18th on the PK .

51%: Ottawa’s face-off win percentage, good for 10th in the league.

43.6%: Derick Brassard’s face-off win percentage in the last five games. Also drafted 6th overall, just like Nikita Filatov. We should load up Binghamton with Columbus Blue Jacket 6th overall picks. Anyway, his FO% seems pretty bad, until…

36.1%: Stephane Da Costa’s face-off win percentage in the last five games.

1.5%: Erik Karlsson’s weirdly stinky shooting percentage, down from 7.1% last season. He has one goal on 65 shots. Karlsson took 182 shots last year for 13 goals, and this year he’s on pace for a whopping 280 shots, but only 4 goals. Sooner or later they’re going to start going in for him, and then that dude is going to get laaaaaaaaaaaaid.

Speaking of getting laid…

$6,065,476.16: Average salary of the six players who scored 73 points last year, which is what Erik Karlsson is on pace for this season, even with that stinky shooting percentage. (Those players: Ryan Kesler, Patrick Marleau, Thomas Vanek, Loui Eriksson, Patrick Kane, and Anze Kopitar. None of whom, I’m sure you’ve noticed, are defencemen.)

11th: where Erik Karlsson would rank among cap hits for defencemen were he to receive that salary.

19.3%: Milan Michalek’s shooting percentage. Which…is otherwordly. Serious Neo bananas moves right there.

23:20: Average ice-time over the last five games for one Filip J. Kuba. I don’t care if you think he sucks, people who can play that much professional ice hockey a night are valuable. Like, 2nd rounder valuable…wink. Or maybe even *shocked* “re-sign him!” valuable.

0.64: Ottawa’s 5-on-5 goals for/against ratio, which is good for last place in the league. Most of the team’s stats have recovered from those early blowouts to Philly and Colorado, so that Ottawa is now firmly in the middle of the pack in most categories. Not so with this one. Wish we could play Winnipeg and Columbus more often.

7500: estimated total sales of the Ottawa Senators’ new third Heri-tahj jersey.

3000: number that were PRE-ORDERED after unveiling.

1: number of physical locations where you can buy a Senators third jersey in downtown Ottawa.

0: number of jerseys that store sells with names other than Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson, Chris Neil, Chris Phillips, or Craig Anderson on the back.

1: Number of people writing this post who think that the Senators’ 2011-2012 season slogan should be changed from “Hockey Makes Us” to “Hockey Makes Out With Us.”

306.4: number of penalty minutes Zenon Konopka is on pace for. 0.6 minutes less than his career high.

17.2: number of penalty minutes Milan Michalek is on pace for, which would be a new career low by 0.8 of a minute. (His career high is 57.)

2079: number of WTYKY unique site hits in October by which we beat our previous monthly record. Thanks for reading, and for coming back every day. I’ve said it before: I have no idea what success looks like on the internet, but it’s getting seriously fun watching our community grow week over week. Next step is to monetize this piece. If anyone wants me to embed a review of Calypso Water Park in an article about Peter Regin’s shoulder rehab, don’t think I’m above it.

Since being selected 29th in the first round of the 2006 draft, Nick Foligno’s had more than his share of unrealistic expectations assigned. The unfortunate intersection of the team’s closing window of contention and management’s insistence that it would be open forever, meant he entered the lineup quicker than he might have in previous years, when the team had depth at all positions, and was expected to produce immediately on a team still flirting with elite status. One of Muckler’s last draft picks before the old man was unceremoniously set adrift on an ice floe, Foligno spent only 28 games playing in Binghamton, playing most of the 2007-2008 season in Ottawa.

Foligno’s been pegged as capable of consistently scoring 20 goals in a season, which is probably about the ceiling for late first rounders. He flirted with that potential during the 2008 season, scoring 17 goals, and even in down seasons displayed a grinder’s work ethic and dressing room character. Nonetheless, he’s better suited to third line work, playing against lesser competition in an energy role.

And yet, despite all reasonable expectations, I still find a palpable sense of disappointment in Foligno’s play expressed on the blogs. The notion is that this team didn’t, and doesn’t, need another Chris Neil (or Jarkko Ruutu); it needs scoring, and Foligno, the odd man out on the amateur’s depth chart, gets the leftover baggage.

To make the situation even more maddening, now that Foligno is being used liberally—again, due to playing for a thin team—he’s on pace for 27 goals and a career high in points. Some have written that he is “finally” starting to show the potential for which Ottawa used a 1st round pick, as if we’ve been made to wait an unreasonably long time for a player given almost no development time. And even when he aspires to insane expectations, his name is linked in trade rumours by fans eager to see the rebuild accelerated. Tired of the same old thing, we look ready to double down at the draft’s roulette table.

The most important stat, often overlooked I think, is that Foligno is only 25 years old and already in his fifth pro season. He’s saddled with veteran status while similarly aged players like Eric Condra or Colin Greening are given all the leeway afforded rookies. Expectations scale accordingly. If Colin Greening has a season similar to Foligno’s 2009-2010 (9 goals, 17 assists) I doubt there would be much uproar. Anything less than top six performance from Foligno, a player cut very much from the same cloth, and we’ll find him linked in trade rumors once again, his name invoked in the same sentence as the term ‘reclamation project.’ Forget that Greening was a 7th rounder and Foligno a 1st; for everything past the top 15 picks, probability skews all over the place.

Ottawa should not trade Nick Foligno. I would be entirely unsurprised if he turns out to be the third liner it’s reasonable to expect that he is (and let’s not underestimate their importance in a cap era), but you don’t give up on 25 year olds. I would be equally unsurprised if you saw Foligno start tearing it up with another team a season or two from now. Ottawa has invested the time and development in Nick (albeit at an NHL level rather than in the AHL); why not wait to reap the rewards?

Brian Elliott’s numbers in St. Louis are downright nutty: .941 SV%, 1.72GAA, 5 wins in 7 games for a team that only has 6 wins overall. All for $600,000 on a one year deal. In the same week that Nashville gave Pekka Rinne $7M a year over 7 years, and with Philly already tugging their collar because of that ludicrous 9 year Bryzgalov deal, Elliott is yet another cautionary tale about managing goaltending expectations and looking for value.

This is no 20/20 hindsight: Elliott had to go from Ottawa, and there was no way Colorado was going to qualify him after his disastrous stint there. (Aside: that they traded Anderson for Elliott and then let Elliott walk is still baffling. They couldn’t have received even a draft pick for Andy?) I’m not suggesting that Elliott shouldn’t have been cut loose. More likely the lesson here is that the most fickle position in hockey demands a lot of selection and flexibility – the fact that we could cut him loose is precisely the argument for keeping these types of players around. You can go with a bona fide #1, but even the best in the game, your Luongos, Thomases, and Brodeurs, go through their rough patches. Elliott’s play in the 2009-2010 season helped to get a mediocre team into the playoffs. The fact that they had their money tied up in Leclaire meant we had fewer options when Elliott faltered.

All of which to say: give me four guys making league minimum over the high priced option who you live or die by any day.

Now, Anderson hasn’t been great this year either. After playing superbly down the stretch last year, the team decided, even after Emery, Gerber, and Leclaire, that it made the most sense to sign a goalie to rely on night in and night out. Anderson will have his better games in Ottawa, and with a cap hit of just over $3M he doesn’t have the worst deal in the league. But he’s making starting goaltending money for the next four seasons. Show me a goaltender making that kind of money who you think is consistently worth their salary. It makes much more sense to me to allow oneself access to those rare opportunities (Vokoun gets frozen out, signs a one year deal), to increase your chances at a hot hand by simply keeping a larger stable, and to work on perfecting your defensive system.

The goalie market is flooded with veterans and cast-offs alike looking to prove themselves. Take a look at how many UFA goaltenders are pending for 2012, and how many might be had for low-risk, one year, cheap deals – if, that is, the team hasn’t tied itself up with a ‘legit’ starting goaltender.

Elliott is a perfect example of a player who is working his way back to respectability with neither money nor stability in return. He’ll come back to earth eventually. And if he doesn’t for long enough, I’m sure some team will give him a ludicrous deal to provide ‘stability’ to the most unstable position on a hockey team.

Interesting discussion happening in the comments of this post, and one that I’m sure will pick up steam as the season progresses: just how much does Erik Karlsson get on his next deal?

His importance to the team is uncontestable, and would be if his performance were even half as integral as it’s been this season. Over a point-per-game, well on pace to beat his already respectable high of 45 points last year; playing between 25 and 30 minutes a night, and in all situations; showing great leadership and ownership. For such a young player, and such a small player, he’s carrying the team most nights, and it’s not hard to imagine Karlsson someday becoming the next Swedish captain of the Ottawa Senators. He demonstrates the importance of a puck-moving defenceman, and why Ottawa chose Wade Redden over Zdeno Chara back in the day.

The question isn’t whether he gets a hefty raise—that’s assured—it’s whether or not Karlsson is in the elite strata of defencemen garnering those truly ludicrous deals. One of our readers suggested that Karlsson be paid up to $6M a year, which, according to Capgeek, would make him the 11^th highest paid defenceman in the league—above the likes of Brent Seabrook, Andrei Markov, Duncan Keith, Mike Green, and Keith Yandle.

Looking strictly at points, Shea Weber’s career high is 53 (though on a low-scoring team). Drew Doughty’s is 59. Mike Green has had two 70+ point seasons, albeit on the hockey equivalent of a blitzkrieg. Guys like Zdeno Chara and Dion Phaneuf bring elements that Karlsson simply isn’t built to provide. Timonen and Boyle are veterans in the league who were negotiating as UFAs. And then there’s Jay Bouwmeester, Brian Campbell and Wade Redden, acting as our resident cautionary tales.

I suggested in the linked post that because Karlsson is an RFA rather than a UFA, now’s the time to really put the screws to him for the good of the team. (Look at what Sather did with Marc Staal, who is now signed to a very reasonable deal.) When his RFA status is combined with an impending CBA negotiation, and Karlsson is playing for a team in flux (Yield for Yakupov isn’t exactly going as planned), it’s in the best interests of all involved to maintain maximum flexibility on a fair, but conservative, deal.

It seems to me that there are two scenarios most likely to happen:

1) A short-term deal—2 to 3 years—at $4M-$4.5M. Low, perhaps, but still a hefty raise on what he’s making now, and which allows for a real cash-in on his next contract, when, if he’s still producing, the team will gladly pay him whatever he’s worth (unless David Rundblad has made Karlsson redundant at that point). It allows the team to really see what they’ve got, and the player to know how he’ll be used. Also, the argument can be made for contention: there’s a lot of young defencemen on this team, and only so much cap room. Plus, this team has been burned on long-term, high paying deals in the past. (Heatley.)

2) If a long(er)-term deal like those signed by other prominent RFAs Mike Green and Keith Yandle is the only option from Karlsson’s POV, then look at their conservative totals. Mike Green signed for four years at $5.250M, which seemed low for far and away the highest scoring defenceman in the league. Yandle signed for five years and the same amount. Both took less than they perhaps could have gotten in order to manage expectations, stay with their team, and, in Washington’s case, keep the roster together. Karlsson takes on some risk in this scenario, especially if the new CBA involves a salary rollback similar to that employed during the last negotiation. But otherwise the term and amount are just right, as Karlsson falls somewhere between those two players in terms of his skill set. He puts up points like Green, though not at that level, and has a great all-around game, though not as solid as Yandle’s.

The alternative, I suppose, is to go for broke and sign him to one of those long-term, cap-circumventing deals with a tail in order to take advantage of a CBA loophole before it’s closed in the next negotiation. Karlsson is only 21. If you’re 100% about his role on this team, you could theoretically sign him for the next 10 to 15 years. Doesn’t seem like Murray’s style, and I certainly think that’s a terrible idea. (Subject for another post maybe, but these have to be eliminated. Not because they’re unfair, which they are, but because it’s only a matter of time before one of these terrible decisions ruins a franchise. The Islanders are close that situation with Di Pietro. But imagine if Kovalchuk takes a stick in the eye and loses his peripheral vision, becoming half the player he is now. New Jersey would have to pay a marginal player $11M+ for years… and that could happen to any team in the league on a bad night.)

With the team not expected to contend, and with all of the cap space in the world right now, it may seem like there’s no pressure to get this deal right. Just give him whatever it takes to keep him in a Sens uniform, right? But these are the kind of decisions that put franchises in difficult situations a few years from now, when you’ve got Rundblad, Cowen, Michalek and Spezza all needing new deals within a season of each other.

Varada

Six wins in a row. The elephant in the room: are we being hopeless romantics to expect this team to make the playoffs this year? Is it just a case of early season wackiness, i.e. the team is only 2 games above .500 and is 4th in the conference? SUB-QUESTION: is this a repeat of the 2009-2010 season when the Sens went on an 11 game win streak and made the playoffs as the fifth seed, but if they’d played .500 hockey through that stretch they would have been a bubble team? Is this an anomalous period to be followed by a crushing return to mediocrity? SUB-QUESTION THE SECOND: Is it better to burn out or to fade away?
 
I’m tempted to take a more optimistic tone than most of the cautious (read: professional) Sens blogs, who are all predicting the wheels to suddenly and irrevocably come off the wagon at some point. The team is playing their system, and MacLean is rolling with whoever is giving him the most at the moment but without mixing up the lines, which is refreshing. Sharing the load with the vets seems to be working. (Remember when Clouston played Alfredsson 37 minutes a night?) Also, if Rundblad becomes as good as Karlsson is now, holy sheeeeeeeeeet will this team be fun for years.

Basically, I’m just getting a greater appreciation for the inherent funk-upness of the NHL itself, and its totally capricious, unfair, God’s Dice style chaos theory. You know how you’re playing the latest version of NHL for whatever your respective electronics totem is (now: with sneezing on the bench! *hands over $70*) and you sim a few games and think, “Pshaw, EA’s likelihood calculators are so skewed. Edmonton in first place? Toronto leading their division? Ottawa in 4th? Colorado and Dallas ruling the West? Detroit in a funk? Columbus finally spends more money and automatically becomes the worstest? Defending champs can’t string together two wins to save their life? EA has some work to do on their algorithms.” (Also, Vancouver always trades one of the Sedins.) Well, I’m starting to think that the kids they have working there for $12 an hour are probably just like “Fuck it.” Both because they make $12 an hour, and also because the NHL is like Road Warrior out there. Totally unpredictable. So we’re living in a zen moment right now, total kismet. I hope they have overstock of whatever incense MacLean is burning in the dressing room.

James

Happy Halloween everybody. Blessedish be the time of year when you get to go to a party that involves sweating profusely under a mask and/or uncomfortable clothing all night.

So let me start off by saying “Man, I love being a turtle!” as in, 6 game win streak really hitting the spot right now. A win streak that now includes beating the maple loaves at home in front a building half full of people who’s dad liked the maple leaves so they feel compelled to cheer for the team of another city and that hasn’t done anything since they had to slug it out through TWO whole rounds of playoffs nearly a half century ago in a league of six teams. What? “I put a lot of money up IM HATIN” – Ghostface Killah.
 
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAnyway, I will be my regular gutsy self and weigh both sides of the equation. New coach, new players, new town, new red, new army. Branding, RIGHT GUYS? I’m thinking maybe these guys are starting to gel a little bit out there. Sure there is still a core of vets from years past but over the course of a couple of months the Sens went from being one of the oldest teams in the NHL to one of the youngest. There’s not a ton of time between preseason and meaningful games to figure things out. It is quite possible that the players are starting to get used to each other out there.

That said, it is one month into the season and that there is some really sticky NHL math going on. I think it’s awesome that the Sens are 4th in the East and the Bruins are 15th or whatever but I mean on that same note, as great as King Karlsson is playing right now he has more assists than Henrik Sedin, Edmonton is no.1 in the West and Alex Ovechkin is sitting in 29th place in scoring on TSN’s Stats page. To use the NHL “term du jour that isnt ‘compete level’” the sample size is too small. I expect the league will have a different look after the All Star break. Wasn’t Philly in the basement around this time two seasons ago when they made the cup finals?

Now that I’ve covered my buns, I have to admit, there are a lot of things that this team is doing that make me think that they won’t finish dead last in the East as so many predicted.

– Goaltenders doing their jobs but not being relied on to put on constant high fiving Jesus in space 50+ save performances.
– Special teams are really clicking (great for killing off the way too many penalties Ottawa’s taking right now)
– Team is scoring goals which they weren’t supposed to and, moreover, all of those expected to put up points are putting up points. Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson, Gonchar….these are the guys who are supposed to be on the score sheet consistently and so far they are fulfilling their role.
– New players delivering: Colin Greening Colin Greening Colin Greening Colin Greening oOOooOOOOoo also did anyone else catch Cowen dumping people on their asses left and right against NY?
– Rundblad gaining confidence with each game
– Kuba not playing like he’s wearing a used diaper full of Indian food and burnt hair (sorry Anchorman was on last night)
– Gonchar gaining confidence with each game
– I’m not noticing Phillips which means he is playing well.
– Neil playing out of his mind
– Multiple come from behind wins
– Winning games on back to back nights
– Bouncing back from tough losses
– Shootout wins.
– Bonus point: I dont think the Sens have lost with Winchester in the line up…
 
Alright, so this is a sunny evaluation but when a team wins 6 games in a row…what can I say, things look sunny. There are still some kinks to work out like having to play on their heels a man short way too often but…. I outlined all those things above as i feel there are a lot of positives so far and I just don’t see them all as flukes. Players will heat up and cool off but all those shot blocks in the first period last night? That’s straight up discipline.

If this team does well, great. I am totally at ease with not having a powerhouse team during a rebuild but if the team wants to roll let them roll. Look at how many first round picks the team picked up this past draft; that’s a bit of a buffer if the Sens are out of the lottery zone. I am almost completely sure the Sens wont “steal” last place from its rightful owner Columbus. If the team wants to start winning now, they start winning now. The Sens got an amazing draft pick this year at no. 6 but have made serious moves outside the lottery the past few seasons. Karlsson 15th, Cowen 9th, Rundblad (technically 17th  acquired by a 16th) Lehner 46th and a bunch of unsigned College boys. Not to mention former no. 6 Filatov aching to prove himself worthy of more than 5 mins of ice time. As I’ve said before, I want a Ryan Ted Nugent-Sir Anthony Hopkins too but if the team decides to start kicking ass then kick away. If things go south then we are who we thought we were and we get another high pick. As long as the hockey remains as entertaining as it has been I could go either way. I think yes, this is the whacky world of the NHL, of course it’s possible that the Sens make the playoffs. If they do I will see you and the Sensquatch in the back of the limo I just bought in cash from the Chinese mafia. If not I wont be mad at wherever they finish as long as they’re trying. Keep fit and have fun.

With the Sens suddenly not stinking anymore, you’re easily forgiven for neglecting the reason 29 fan bases follow hockey: thinking of next season. (Especially when “next year” doesn’t necessarily mean daydreaming about Yakupov.) The team’s competitive for now, and winning in an entertaining fashion. Obviously I’m making all sorts of trips to the Wine Rack for my daily dose of Iniskillen Iced Wine and totally paying for my Senators Sportsnet Digipak Bonus (Not Free) Content legally.

But here’s the thing: if the team ends up more competitive than we thought it would be (whoa whoa WHOA, I just said “more competitive”…not “competitive”), and they already have all this cap space, there are some exciting scenarios for next season.

It’s Friday so obviously I’m on Cap Geek. And I notice, first, that the team has about $12,500,000 in cap space already, which is, you know, sort of crazy. (Also crazy: Dallas is competitive with the lowest payroll in the league. Columbus has the fourth highest eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeshsorryguys.)

But then, check it out: there’s just under $2,500,000 coming off the books just in buy-outs. Cheechoo. Emery. Alfredsson. (So glad we bought out that bum.) That’s a whole, real, corporeal player in exchange for nebulous bills. Or two Konopkas.

I sent out a Tweet asking if anyone would consider re-signing Kuba considering his strong play this season, and to sweeten the deal I posited a scenario in which he accepts less money and years. Say…about the $2.5M we just saved on buyouts. The completely scientific results of that Twitter poll (which, by the way…. @wtyky) indicated that 175% of respondents would not re-sign him. (Margin of error of + / – 200%) Hm. Well then. I guess that’s another $3,700,000 in space.

Then you’ve got Carkner, Winchester, Lee and Konopka who, for the sake of argument, let’s say aren’t coming back. Another cool $3,025,000.

Murray has got to re-sign Karlsson. (FOR LIFE, BTW.) That’s a subject for another many dozens and hundreds of posts. (If there’s anything I learned from being notified 10,000 times that that Mika Zibanejad had been sent back to the SEL, it’s that we’re all on the same page when it comes to discussion topics.) But let’s just split the difference between the low and high ends of potential salary and say he makes $4,000,000 a year. We’ll say Da Costa, Regin, and Foligno come back for about the same amount. We’ll also assume Papa Alfie stays in house, and lets the Sun columnists tell him who should live in his basement for one more year. We’ll also assume a few new youngins come into the fold. Let’s also assume we remember Filatov is alive.

That gives this team around $18,000,000 in cap space. Or over a quarter of the entire cap. Which is absolutely nutty. $2M more cap space than the lowest payrolled team in the league right now.

My point being: 

1. We should probably seriously look at re-signing Kuba, especially if he’ll take a paycut and sign for a year or two without a No Trade Clause. I know he’s frustrating. I’ve been right there with you, throwing my chicken wings into a child’s face with frustration. But he can play 20+ minutes a night, and this is a young team, and c’mon guys. Just c’mon. He’s not that expensive. Maybe we can teach him to throw his size around! Just kidding. But think about where you’re gonna put your Kuba hate if he finishes the season with 35 points and a plus rating.
2. There are some seriously exciting players up as UFAs. Not a ton of them, and of course Zach Parise AND Alex Semin will somehow both end up on the Rangers after they bury Brad Richards in the Latvian Mediocre Excellence Brigade. But there’s those two, Ryan Suter, Willie Mitchell, Mikhail Grabovski, and of course a whole slew of Misfit Toys willing to take on cheap contracts just because no one else wants them (helloooooo Lee Stepniak). Murray might actually be in the enviable position, now known as The Tallon, of having to spend to get to the cap floor. This team can have a major shot in the arm next year, and so long as Murray signs players to short contracts to keep room for the necessary re-signings, this team’s in great shape. 
3.  Yakupov-Schmakupov.
4. This is a chance for Melnyk to re-coup some losses. (Which, you know, I’m not entirely convinced about.) This is also a chance for the team to reinvest. Scoreboard. Cheaper concessions. More ticket deals. Let’s get a foam finger on all of those kids’ hands. (Though thanks for the pin during the home opener, that was nice.)

As everyone in the NHL knows and is currently losing sleep over I’m sure, Ottawa Senators sixth overall pick Mika Zibanejad will play his ninth NHL game tonight. Which means that if he plays any more games the first year of his entry-level contract kicks in, regardless of how many more games he plays. Bryan Murray, looking at his deep, deep stable of 2nd line centers (uhh…) must now decide what is best for the 18 year old. Send him back to the Swedish Elite League (“It’s a league of MEN.”) or commit him to a season’s worth of “development”, AKA punishment in the NHL.

James

What do you think is best for Zibanejad? SEL or NHL? I know youre very strongly against not kicking in ELCs til the last minute.

I feel like I couldn’t be any more on the fence about it. Maybe with a slight edge toward returning him.  I really wish he could just be sent down to Binghamton. He’s the new Jared Cowen!

Varada

 I think he should go to the SEL this year. For me the AHL route is a perfect middle road, if only it were possible. He can be called up easily, still gets used to the smaller ice surface and North American style game, etc. That’s the debate with Rundblad. But my understanding is that both have options in their contracts to return to Sweden if they want, and I can understand why they would. You have a choice of returning to your home country, living with your family, and being a star in a league where you know exactly what to expect. Or you can ride the bus all over the US.
 
But if it’s between staying and going, I think he should go for all the common reasons. Mostly though it’s just because 18 is yoooooooooung. I see what Atlanta did with their prospects in consistently playing them early, and it’s never fast-tracked a player’s development.

James

You know what, I swayed more to the send him back side. I sometimes think back to how his SEL number of games-played is somewhere in the 20s, and I think their season is a little over 50 games. It says a lot about his pedigree: just broke in from the Swedish Juniors and caught a bunch of scouts’ attention. I think it would be extra exciting to see him go back and enjoy a Rundbladian domination of the league. Though that’s asking a lot, it did make Rundblad seem all the more of a sure NHLer and SEL graduate when he came over this year. Same goes for Jared Cowen going back the WHL and absolutely hurting that league’s feelings.

Even though winning two games has been a gas to watch (except for like 53 minutes of that CLB game) it’s still a rebuild year and I think Ziba is more of a sure-thing prospect, like Rundblad, where there’s little question he’ll make the NHL one day. With so many prospects in the mix, I’d actually prefer to see DaCosta get a bit more of a look. He seems more the wild card. Maybe even a couple of games for Corey “AHL Hall of Fame” Locke. That and I guess it makes more room Nikita Filatov which, for me: give the kid the full try out. Rebuild year, last year on his ELC, might as well see what he can do, warts and all. Better than having Zbad crammed in there potentially playing wing (like what’s now happening).

Interesting to see The Dogman getting called up ahead of Filatov. I like me some dogman though.

Varada

Yeah, Filatov must be secretly seething. D-Man gets his callup as he wanted to sign in Latvia or some shit and re-signed in Ottawa (apparently) after a promise he’d get a shot in the NHL, so this is probably it. Eventually Filatov though – he’s gonna get his Bobby Butler treatment. “You’re what we’ve got! Top six minutes for the last 30 games of the season!” (*hides under blankets.*) 
 
I mean, don’t get me wrong about Zibanejad: I’d like to him to stay for entertainment value. I’d like to see him develop. I really wanna see him get that first goal, and he was awesome in pre-season. (What a tease preseason is, huh.) Also we need him for depth purposes, as I’ve already said a billion times that I expect like 40% of our lineup to be hurt by mid-season. But you know, if we need to call up someone I’m totally cool with like, Mark Parrish, he of 10 seasons in the NHL and currently with Bingamton, coming up for a few games.

James

I know. I look at Parrish as a very, very smart signing by the Murrays. The David Hale of forwards.

Yeah, I’m not losing sleep over the whole Filatov thing. Still so much season to go and you have to think he’s going to get a pretty extensive shot again with his contract expiring.

Exeunt (weigh in in the comments section)

I feel emo-tioooooooooooon.

Featuring prominently in Ottawa’s stunning last minute comeback win over the cursed Columbus Blue Jackets were Alfredsson, whose savvy read and work ethic generated the chances, Spezza, who scored the tying goal, and Michalek, whose play has been equal parts gritty and speedy. Without those three – arguable the only legitimate NHL line this team has – and Ottawa’s surprisingly potent powerplay (3rd in the league), Ottawa’s early season would be even worse than it’s been.

Spezza in particular has been dominant at times, and with 11 points in eight games might finally start to receive the kind of respect and attention elite players deserve. Michalek is showing what he can do when 100% healthy, and Alfredsson is once again defying his age. Beyond Karlsson, they’re everything this team has.

If Ottawa is going to surprise anyone this season – and read any non-Senators blog and you’ll see an endless stream of “lowly Senators” and “destined for a lottery pick” and just straight up “this team stinks” references – these three need to play this way all season long. In other words, they’ll need to play the role expected of Craig Anderson in everyone’s pre-season predictions and steal some games.

Now, were Anderson to return to his late 2010-2011 season form combined with the trio’s play, you might even have consistency from game to game. You might even, dare I write it, compete for a playoff spot. Now that there’s an extremely modest win-streak under their belts, this team might have some momentum and start challenging teams that aren’t, you know, the absolute worst.

More likely of course is that at least one (if not all three) of those forwards will be injured in due time, and then there will be trouble. Stephane Da Costa has one point in eight games and is -8. Zibanejad has one assist, and is 18 years old. Peter Regin is already hurt. Forget that these guys are barely second line centers, sooner or later they might even be called up to take critical face-offs as the Senators top centermen.

In other words, I’ll take these gutsy, exciting wins while I can. There will be enough tough games ahead. But what’s clear this early on is that Spezza is again proving himself, and is likely the future captain of this team. Let’s soak up the chance to watch him in his prime.

Bill Simmons is as well known a generalist in sports writing as there exists; long-time ESPN contributor, editor-in-chief of Grantland, getter-of-massive-figures-like-commissioners for his podcast, he’s a bit of the everyman, even if his level of access is anything but common. Not a former athlete or general manager, not a specialist; just a former blogger who writes about sports from a fan’s perspective while achieving that tricky balance of humor and authority. He’s sort of the sports blogger equivalent of the musician who gets picked out of obscurity to become a rock star.

He’s also getting into hockey (moreso). With the NBA lockout, the epic collapse of the Red Sox, and football being football (meaning, obscenely well covered already) he’s watching some Kings games. And he’s been writing down some great ideas. So, prompted by this article, I thought I’d take a few minutes to highlight those I think would benefit the NHL the most.

1)      Shorten the season and have a week-long tournament for the eighth seed.

The atom bomb. This one’s a game changer. Here it is in a nutshell: Only the top seven seeds in each conference get into the playoffs. All remaining teams, whether eighth or 15^th, play a round-robin tournament for the eighth seed. This requires the league to drop the already-too-long NHL season from 82 games to maybe 76 or something, which frankly is overdue considering how long the playoffs are (and how weak late-season hockey tends to be). It adds a week of ultra-fun, winner-suddenly-gets-in-hockey. And it prevents tanking for draft picks. Imagine your team toiling in 14^th (ahem, Ottawa) only to suddenly get hot at the right time and, after a few epic wins, find themselves in the playoffs? It would send just the right message about never taking contention for granted, and about competing all year long. And the ratings for that week long tourney would be absolutely bananas. You’d have a huge spike in ticket sales for those down-and-out markets. You’d reward seventh-and-higher seeds with a week’s rest before the playoff grind. You would create an instant underdog favorite. (Imagine a team like the Islanders winning a few games in a row in the last week of the season to jump from 13th to eighth, re-energize and suddenly have to take on a well-rested but rusty Washington in the first round. How could you not root for them at that point?) And it’s absolutely the only way the Columbus Blue Jackets will ever return to the big dance. (Just kidding. [Not kidding.]) In a league that already has all sorts of parity, it would be the ultimate “anyone can make it” gesture, and it would be a hell of a lot of fun. This is a Nobel Prize idea.

2)      Larry Bird Clause, kinda

When it comes to a pending UFA, allow the team who drafted the player (should he still be with that team) to offer more money than competitors. This allows small markets to keep their stars – if they’re willing to pay for them – and gets us out of this whole ridiculous “we just couldn’t get a deal done” parlance. This is a little bit less obvious in hockey than in basketball, because there’s a league max per player in hockey but no one in the league, even its biggest stars, comes anywhere close to it (there’s always some chatter about the next big UFA getting a league max deal, and inevitably he’ll sign the nice secure long-term deal with a reasonable or only-slightly-unreasonable cap hit around $7M); theoretically, small markets already can outbid other teams – if they have the cash – by just going league max, AKA officially insane. They don’t because you have to sign 20 guys in hockey, and Kovalchuk can’t play goaltender.

The solution is to create artificial cash advantages. Limit the maximum bid allowed by competitors on a UFA. So, to use Kovalchuk again, all other markets would not be allowed to offer more than, say, $7 million a year (in the highest paying year of the deal), and Atlanta (R.I.P.) could have offered more than $7M, up to league max. This also removes the unofficial but totally real advantage large market teams have and use when they bury contracts in the minors or overseas in order to dish out for today’s big UFA. Oh, and only allow the drafting franchise one Larry Bird Clause per UFA period. Which means Nashville is still boned when Weber, Suter and Rinne come up for new contracts after this year.

3)      Incentives for players who outperform

The two above ideas would be a tough sell to the players’ union. They limit the maximum payout to the league’s stars and not-really-stars. (How will Brain Campbell put food on the table without Dale Tallon having every opportunity to make him the next okay player with an elite player’s paycheque?) And they encourage teams to spend less, load up on stars at the deadline, and then try to run the table during the round-robin tourney rather than spend all season long on salaries. Here’s a bone thrown the other way: bonuses to players who outperform their contract expectation and, here’s the key, bonuses which don’t count against the cap. You can argue we already have bonuses, but they do count against the cap. It’s also not spectacular for a player like Sean Bergenheim to outperform expectation by scoring, like, five goals. How about for contracts in excess of $5 million there’s an automatic superstar provision wherein the player earns more if they win a major award, or land in the top ten in their respective categories? You’re telling me a team will complain about having to shell out an extra million or two if 1) they have a player on their team good enough to win the Art Ross? And 2) they have the advantage of the Larry Bird Clause, which allows them to keep all of their players OR if bidding on a non-drafted UFA to get them for only up to $7M?

So there you go: three solid ideas to improve upon an already improving league.

BONUS IDEA (this one is mine)

Trade Sergei Gonchar to the Rangers for Wade Redden and their 1st and 3rd round picks. They save $5.5M overall, get an actual NHL player (sorta), and we get a defenceman who might feel like he has something to prove and has a positive history with the city, and some picks. New York would have to figure out the cap, and Gonchar isn’t going to waive his no trade if they plan on stashing him in the minors, but I dunno…get an analyst to put some scenarios in a Word document and email it to Sather.

Oh, and no-touch icing for Christ’s sake.

And lo, did the Ottawa Senators begin their fated rebuilding cycle with a FUCKING AWFUL couple of games.

Varada 

The team’s been exactly as bad as everyone said, not just losing most of its games but doing so in spectacular fashion and on home ice a couple of times. If not for the bizarrely inept Columbus Blue Jackets we’d be dead last. (Which, I know Carter is hurt and Wisniewski suspended, but really, both of those guys and the Jackets are 180 degrees better? You’ve got to feel for them. Spending to the cap this year and everything. That coach is done for.) Question: anyone think we turn this around? And by “turn this around” I mean have a ten game stretch where maybe we win as many games as we lose? Lastly, how awesome was it that we got to go to the Sens one win this year?
 
Or how about Karlsson somehow still having a multi-point game in a 7-2 loss? Eight points in six games, that’s pretty amazing – even if he’s already a -5. By the way, also leading the league in assists on a team that’s 18th in scoring. Shine on, single bright light in an inky black universe. I see a 5% increase in Karlsson jerseys week-over-week until the end of the season.
 
How bad has our goaltending been? Do we blame this entirely on defensive lapses by the players in front of Auld and Anderson, the baldest duo in sucktown? Personally, I think Anderson’s play has been the most disappointing part of the early season. I’m not usually one to assess the “interest” or “effort” levels of a person I’ve never met, but he seems strangely lax out there. There’s none of the leaping saves we became accustomed to at the end of last season. He’s way out of position, not making himself big in the net, not getting down fast enough. Some goals are just tough luck. (How the hell did Read score that first goal on Auld last night, for example?) But Anderson looks resigned to a hellish season.
 
Who’s the first person to get traded this year? I’m going with Foligno.
 
Also of note is that yesterday both the new album by M83 and the videogame Batman: Arkham City were released, both of which I’ve been looking forward to.

Pete

The play in front of the goalies has been pretty bad. Multiple rushes from the wings right to the front of the net. Ottawa’s d-men are being turnstiled before our eyes. Opponents forwards are going wherever they want and secondary scoring chances in front of the net leave them scrambling.

Did we expect all that? Yes. I’m taking issue with the constant line juggling and the mixed messages of starts vs scratches. I don’t think MacLean should be searching for the magic bullet. Look for consistency, develop a routine. I doubt all the answers are going to be stumbled upon by trial and error. Get these guys comfortable playing with each other, reward consistent play and admonish those caught out of position. Case in point last night vs Philly I watched Chris Pronger put in a clinic of positional play, you know how I could tell? Cause the announcers rarely called his name. He’s never flashy but he’s always in the right spot. During the Sportsnet broadcast Kuba and Rundblad were noticeable because they were all over the ice. Dean and Denis (when he was paying attention) couldn’t keep their names off their lips. Not something I expect from defensemen.

And now for some stats. Ottawa’s two worst seasons in franchise history 1992-93 and 94-95 both featured the team grabbing 2 points in the first 6 games. This years team has scored more goals, 16 compared to 15 in 1992 and 13 in 1994 while allowing 30 compared to 32 in 92 and 22 in 94.

Obvs it’s early but we’re in rarified air here. If the trend holds expect our next point to come in late November and only 5 one goal games (losses or ties) before Xmas. (notice I didn’t mention the proliferation of 10 games or more losing streaks in this franchise’s history, the stats are pointing we might be in for a few of those

To summarize, I fear to watch yet I cannot turn away. I’ll be in the stands for Thursday’s game.

James

H. Shit. I read some quote in the press from Auld when it was announced he’d be starting against Philly. He said something along the lines of “I rarely get to start two games in a row. So blah blah blah feels good.” Starting to see why this doesn’t get to do that much. He looked absolutely brutal. I think so far this season has been a combo of breezy goaltending AND shoddy / non existent D coverage but early last night those first two? I think scored 1.1 seconds apart (have to check the stats) smacked of Dave Nichols’ Memories of Brian Elliot Cajun Backbreaking Rib Sauce.
That bad angle shot (and hey, sometimes they do go in…I’ve seen Spezza score a couple of those, always worth a try as if it fails the rebound tends to come back to you behind the net) and then Giroux’s Chris Campoli special, put the puck in the net twice when the initial goal isn’t called…those shits were all Auld. All’d.
The air must have just been sucked from the building after that 2 for 1. Say what you will about that crowd at SBP, sorry what’s that? No one ever shuts the fuck up about that for 5 minutes? I swear, if SBP was filled with self loathing fans complaining about the noise level at the arena it would make the Bell Centre sound like a sensory deprivation tank.
Sorry about that rant (sort of…actually, not really sorry at all)
 
I still expect the lines to look super weird until the 9 game try outs are up. Paulrus might feel a bit of pressure after last night’s shite storm but for sure after game 9 I expect to see some more conservative shit going on. I must admit it is funny when you hear MacLean going, “I know Michalek, Spezza, Alfredsson can be a very effective line so I can default to that if we need to generate something.” Yeah, or, you know, you can just make that your first line. It’s not weird for a team to put their three best forwards on the top line. Can we hear it for the fact that one of, if not the, best player on our team is turning 39 in a couple months. Happy birthday to ALL OF US. YIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIKES
 
I know the team needs to stay above the cap floor and all but does anyone have less of a place on the team than Kuba? All we have are accident prone puckmovers now. I don’t think it would be crazy to pay a bunch for a boring stay at home crease clearer. Kinda wishing David Hale would page me right now… Don’t worry Sens fans, we’ll still tank, I just want people to keep going to games and 7-2 losses are not the way to do it. And you know what? This is not the fans’ fault. I heard someone on a podcast say (sorry, forget which one) “what have fans done so far to indicate they wont support a rebuild?” and I agree. The general consensus after the Washington game seemed to be, “Now THERE’S a loss I can get behind!” Excited about the effort and potential behind a loss, if that’s not support I don’t know what is. Ottawa fans understand what a rebuild entails but also what A MODICUM PRIDE entails. Fans have limits. 2 blowouts in a week already? Remember when leafs fans were wearing bags on their heads a couple seasons ago? I kinda get it. I love this team but I hate to see this type thing. Anyway, I’m trying to hold back a little until we’re 10 games into the season and maybe the line up settles down a little bit. But for me right now, we’re in puck mover hell on D. What are you did me Carkner’s knee!?!?!

Filatov must be pissing himself about his “backchecking” watching the rest of the team look like saloon doors in his absence. Put the kid back in and play him in the top six all night long. Im not saying he’s the solution to the Sens problems at all, I’m just saying I want to see a fast dynamic forward…you know, like the other teams have. If the team’s already giving up like 5+ goals a night might as well put some people up front that might score some themselves. Eric Condra sure don’t seem up for it so far. ONE WAY CONTRACTS FOR ALL!

Also, I hate to bring this up as he has a goal and seems like the nicest guy in Springfield but is anyone getting a little bit of Nick Foligno-getting-constantly-sonned-trying-to-break-in-wide fatigue? I think teams have a book on this move now homie. Let’s switch it up a little.
 
Spezza, Alfie and Karlsson showing they are truly the backbone of this team. Spezza is pretty obviously hurting a bit. Physically and likely spiritually. Terrified thinking of any combo of these guys sitting out. Also hat tip to Michalek for looking threatening most nights/ not being hurt yet.

Things that make you go fklaja;erbgjrv:
Peter Regin is a +3.. Good for that guy. How did he even pull that off? Splitting for the bench every time Philadelphia had the puck?