Love Silfverberg’s reaction to scoring the game-tying goal.

There’s something deeply gratifying about being the team with excellent goaltending and gritty, plucky, “fuck you” performances from rookies and discarded vets. It’s probably the team’s history. But this group has the fortitude to duke it out over a long and hard-fought series. As I said in my series preview, Game One was going to be huge, and you have to wonder if the Habs are feeling a little fragile today.

After all, what we saw last night was grit tinged with a little bit of trauma. You have to think nerves are exposed right now.

Really tough to see a good young player like Eller get injured like that, but I was impressed by the reaction of fans on Twitter. Not one person seemed to take the kind of pleasure in another person’s pain the way one of Ottawa’s ‘legit’ newspapers did this morning:

We can all agree that the Ottawa Sun is classless garbage, right? They’re the lowest common denominator in an equation that keeps hockey second-tier compared to other pro sports. We’ll never be taken seriously so long as these are the ambassadors of the sports. Walk east ’til your hat floats, Garrioch.

In any case, the hit was only borderline if you consider that Gryba couldn’t line his body up with Eller’s perfectly. Other than that, his elbows are down, he doesn’t leave his feet, and he’s not charging. Totally different conversation if Gryba is 20lbs lighter, or Eller is two inches taller, or if Eller doesn’t hit the ice face first. Frustrating to think that even in this day and age the game could have been decided because of the refs’ reactions to seeing blood on the ice. It’s also frustrating because the ref’s penalty now turns the hit from something to be reviewed and assessed to a ‘guilty until proven innocent’ charge. Gryba could be suspended even after he gets ejected and Ottawa plays down a man for half the game, and the Canadiens get a five minute powerplay. Ottawa’s been punished already for the horrific randomness of the game. I’m curious to see how hard the league comes down on Gryba, if only to keep things calm in Montreal tonight. If there’s no suspension, I wonder if you see the likes of Prust and Armstrong start running around like idiots. Watch out, Karlsson.

Salaries

Montreal – $66,857,720 (6th highest in NHL)

Ottawa – $53,806,372 (6th lowest in NHL)

Keep in mind that Ottawa is also without Jason Spezza, he of the $7MM cap hit, putting their roster salary closer to $47MM, or almost $20MM less than Montreal. Montreal heftily outspends Ottawa in salary, and probably should be where they are in the standings considering. Ottawa is doing this shoestring style, and Paul MacLean should probably get some Jack Adams consideration for it.

PDO – Even-strength shooting and save percentage to declare who is producing higher or lower than expected, relative to 1.00, AKA “the luck factor”

Montreal – 1.006 (11th in NHL)

Ottawa – 1.002 (15th in NHL)

Meaning, Montreal has been producing better than expected given their on-ice performance, and some regression is in the books—though not a huge amount, and the same, though to a smaller degree, can be said of Ottawa.

Fenwick Close

Montreal – 53.63% (8th in NHL)

Ottawa – 51.92% (11th in NHL)

Again, close enough to almost be a wash.

Powerplay

Montreal – 20.7% (5th)

Ottawa – 15.9% (20th)

Penalty Kill

Montreal – 79.8% (23rd)

Ottawa – 88% (1^st)

So, what happens when a good PP goes up against a good PK? How about a terrible PP and terrible PK? Answer: I have no idea.

Shots per game

Montreal – 30.6 (9^th)

Ottawa – 33.1 (1^st)

Goals per game

Montreal – 3.04 (4^th)

Ottawa – 2.33 (27^th)

It still blows my mind that Ottawa can lead the league in shots and be so poor at finishing.

Goals against per game

Montreal – 2.58 (14^th)

Ottawa – 2.08 (2^nd)

Andy!

Season series – tied at 2-2

Leading scorers (series edition)

Montreal – Markov, Subban, Pacioretty (3 points, 4gp)

Ottawa – Neil, Wiercioch, Benoit, Smith, Turris (3 points, 4GP)

Goalies (series edition)

Price – 1.58 GAA, .944 SV%

Anderson – 1.51 GAA, .953 SV%

Conclusion

It’s obviously going to be a close series, with perhaps a small edge given to the Habs when you consider that the gap between their ability to score and ability to defend is not quite as large as the gap between Ottawa’s ability to defend and ability to score. Add home ice advantage, and the Habs probably should take the series in six or seven…

…on the other hand, Ottawa isn’t even supposed to be here. They’ve spent most of the season dealing with ridiculous injuries, and even crafted a team identity around it (#peskysens). Their goaltenders have a tendency to get hot and stay hot. Their defensive stats are legit, but their offensive stats reflect, in part, a season without their Norris Trophy winner–and he’s back now. Looking only at the stats, this might not be the same Ottawa team Montreal faced.

That the series opens with back-to-back games in Montreal is going to be a factor. If Ottawa stuns Montreal with a win on the road in Game One, Montreal doesn’t have a lot of time to readjust, practice, and reset their game. Similarly, if Montreal gets on a roll in Game One, Ottawa won’t have much of a break before they have to go right back in the frying pan.

Game One is going to be huge.

Just a quick one, in response to today’s (typically) awesome post by Backhand Shelf’s Jo Innes regarding Karlsson’s early return from surgery on his achilles tendon. The article is great and you should read it, but the key takeaway for me was:

“A return to full competition shouldn’t be contemplated until there’s no pain at full exertion, and comparable strength to the uninjured limb. While Karlsson may be at that point, he may also be doing what many, many NHL players have done before him and putting his long term well-being on the line for a shot at the playoffs.”

Obviously we don’t know how Karlsson feels, and I think we’re all prepared to assume that Senators’ management is being as careful as possible with its franchise defenseman, but I thought I would put it to you, the pack of escaped super apes who usually read this blog and will soon overrun our public infrastructure:

Weird times in Sens-land. Our spirits are crushed one night, and the next night we get these little sprigs of hope pushing up through the concrete.

At first it was that video of Jared Cowen practicing and throwing his weight around in the process. (Note to Cowen: maybe don’t nail one of our most consistent two-way players in practice, ok?) Could we see him return sooner rather than later? Then there was today’s video of Erik Karlsson skating oh-so smoothly around. Robot ankles from Sweden? He won’t be back, we know, but maybe…HE’LL BE BACK?

(No, he wont…unless he will be.)

[He won’t.]

Spezza was last seen lifting groceries into the back of his Honda Element in a FoodBasics parking lot, causing everyone to scream in protest. What’s Turris going on now, eight games without a goal?

But anyways, is the season dropping out from under us or what? Despite losing four in a row, including games against the Buffalo Fucking Sabres and Florida Fucking Panthers, Sportsclubstats (daily viewing this time of year) has Ottawa’s post-season chances only dipping 3.2% to 94%. Not quite the absolute certainty of the 98%+ chances we’ve been enjoying lately, but all the same: if the ship isn’t turned around soon we’re going to start seeing those scary 10% drops in probability happening really, really soon.

Tampa is up next, and they’re no pushover. They’ll have a motivated goalie, all of their leading scorers, plenty of grit, and their defense…well, their defense sucks, but so does the Florida Fucking Panthers’ and they just beat us.

There’s only ten games left in the Senators’ season, and they need to get at least 9 out of a possible 20 points before their chances of making the playoffs drop from the mid-90% range into the 80% range.

In that span they play, in order: Tampa, Philly, New Jersey, Boston, Carolina, Washington, the Leafs, Pens, Washington again, and Philly again. Five games at home, five on the road.

First of all: thank Christ they only play Boston once. That will be a loss. They play the Leafs on a Saturday night at home, so you know that will be a loss too. Everyone else, including the Pens if they still don’t have Crosby, are beatable, but now all bets are off. Throwing away points against the Buffalos and Panthers of the world means the team has to beat decent spoilers like Tampa, Washington, or Philly. If you figure the team loses at least a couple of those games on the road (where Ottawa stinks), it means having to take at least the home games against the Caps and Flyers.

Ottawa can do it. They’ve done it against all odds this season. But the road to the end of the season is going to be a bumpy one.

A good start might be Anderson shaking off the rust (welcome back Andy now RETURN TO VEZINA FORM IMMEDIATELY); Lehner getting angry again even though he doesn’t have to play third fiddle to Bishop (“paging Lehner’s father issues” [Alfredsson’s father issues might do in a pinch]); Turris waking up Home Alone style to find the team left on the road trip without him and then catching up with them in Tampa; finding the ghost of Zach Smith’s scoring touch; and finally, we could stop playing Peter Regin and Matt Kassian under any circumstances whatsoever.

Or, in a happy reversal of fortune…maybe all of the above? If not, we might find ourselves clinging to an improbable Karlsson return to save our season. I’ve been through this with Hasek; I’d prefer if the team just stopped losing completely winnable games.

Allllllllright, Ottawa traded Ben Bishop, he of genial giantism and excellent goaltending, and who was previously acquired for a 2nd round pick, for Cory Conacher and a 4th round pick. I will take this over the usual “2nd round pick for Andy Sutton” ilk any day of the week.

Reaction to this one is a bit of a pendulum: early on it was all “Tampa Bay GM Steve”…Yzerman? Whyzerman? Never heard of him…”gave up way too much for the ephemeral and nebulous experience that is NHL goaltending” or “CONACHER AWESOME.” Bishop could be a starter, or he could never play again. Keep in mind that this is the man who gave up two 2nd round picks and a third round pick for Anders Lindback, who had also never been a starter. (Fun Fact: If one sat on the other’s shoulders under a giant trenchcoat, the combined Lindback / Bishop freak would be fourteen feet tall and three thousand pounds.)

Now the pendulum is swinging back the other way: did Conacher benefit from playing with a generational talent in Stamkos? Are his possession stats and zone starts a cause for concern? (Yes.) Is he having an outlier season for an undrafted and tiny forward? Did we actually get hosed? Tampa paid nothing for Conacher and got a good season out of a rookie. And they parlayed that into a guy who could end up their starting goaltender, a guy who has outright won games for Ottawa that Ottawa had no right winning.

This is what swinging for the fences looks like in Ottawa. Most teams throw a huge number of years and money at a player with only a year or two left in their prime. Ottawa trades what amounts to a 2nd round pick for one of the best rookies of the year and hopes it’s not a fluke. I don’t really mind this when you consider that it fits the long term plans of the club, the prospect cupboard is full, and Murray basically had to trade Bishop anyway. What was he going to do–pay him RFA money to maybe not play at all? It’s a risk, sure, especially when you consider that Bishop could have been the cornerstone in any number of bigger trades, but it could have also been WAY worse. Ottawa held on to their 1st round pick; they kept all of their premier prospects; and they didn’t trade for Marian Gaborik.

The problem with Conacher is that he’s here to score, and score only. He can’t be conveniently demoted down the lineup and play a checking role if his scoring touch goes cold . He needs to finish, and finish consistently. His shooting percentage this season is a ridiculous 17% (which is actually less than his shooting percentage last year in the AHL, if you can believe that), but you can’t help but wonder if we’re on a train to regression town.

Whatever. It’s a risk, but I’d much rather risk a goalie for a forward than the other way around. Goaltending is a mystery wrapped in a pastry gone cold. (Think about it.) Remember Vermette for Leclaire? I wish Bishop all the best; he seemed like a really great team guy and is in his prime. He gets to play with some big names in Tampa.

RELEASE THE LEHNER.

Varada:

The Jack Adams award is generally awarded to one of three types of coaches: 1) the one whose team wins so handily that it is assumed, in this era of parity, that it must be the coach’s system that provides that decisive edge, or 2) a coach who takes over for a team in mid-season after the incumbent is fired and turns around the team’s fortunes, steering them away from the brink of disaster and into the playoffs, or 3) a coach whose team outperforms expectations, but only because those expectations were terrible.

Mid-season consensus seems to be that the Adams is Joel Quenneville’s to lose, what with the Blackhawks leading the entire league and the next closest team by five points (which might as well be an ocean in these standings, and especially in the West). Looking at the probabilities, the only way Chicago can miss the playoffs is if they lose their last 20 games in regulation. They need two more regulation wins to clinch a playoff spot, and we’re not even at the deadline yet.

Why Paul MacLean SHOULD win the Jack Adams

Not to diminish how amazing Chicago’s run is, but we can’t ignore that the Hawks have the sixth highest payroll in the league at $66,440,128, compared to Ottawa, at sixth last, with $53,594,377. And then of course you factor in Ottawa’s injuries. Without Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, Erik Karlsson, Craig Anderson, Mike Lundin, Jared Cowen, and Dave Dziurzynski, Ottawa’s payroll is more like $33,458,544. Which would put them last in the league in payroll by a staggering $17MM.

So not only are the Blackhawks playing with roughly double the active salaries of the Senators, they’re also a team that is keeping pace with almost every other team’s salaries. Ottawa isn’t even close. If they get all of their premier players back they’ll be catapulted back into their usual spot right at the bottom of the salary chain, competing with the Columbuses and Nashvilles of the world.

Currently, Ottawa sits sixth – sixth! – in the NHL, icing what is basically an AHL team. They have the best goals against average in the league, the second best penalty kill, and the best shots-per-game in the league. Their chances at the playoffs today are 96.4%, and they’d have to go 7-10-2 before those chances dropped by a ton, and even then they’d still have a 57.4% chance of making it.

Why Paul MacLean SHOULD NOT win the Jack Adams

Underlying all of Ottawa’s success is the sneaking suspicion that they’ve been riding goaltenders, switching out hot hands like it’s nothing, and the system perhaps isn’t as impressive.

As much as their offense has been finding a way to get it done by committee, Ottawa is second worst in the entire league in shots against.

Ottawa is tied for first in the league with the most charity points, having lost in overtime six times in less than 30 games. Without those, they’re a bubble team at best.

Finally, there are plenty of teams facing adversity with low payrolls who are outperforming. How about St. Louis, with the lowest payroll in the league and currently in 4^th in the ultra-competitive West? Or Columbus having a hot streak that puts them within two points of the playoffs after what everyone assumed would be a miserable, last-place season? How about Anaheim, who spend less money than the Florida Panthers or Winnipeg Jets, and would probably be leading the league if not for Chicago playing with all of the cheats on? Ultimately, that MacLean managed to keep his boys hanging in there won’t stand up against these glamour cases.

What do you think James? *Puts glasses with pictures of awake eyes on* 

Why Paul MacLean SHOULD win the Jack Adams

We`re going to overlap in our thinking a little here but I suppose I could discuss a different angle of the hilariousness of the payroll vs. performance thing. I agree that with the kind of lineup Chicago is icing and the amount they are paying them they SHOULD be dominating…but I mean the level to which they are; your hat has to be removed to Quenneville.

The flip side of where you dial H for Hilariousnessocity is jeez, who do we pick on here… OH I KNOW my favorite punching bag the New York Rangers! On paper, the Rangers should win the Stanley Cup pretty much every year. I love picking on this team because they always land a huge free agent and STILL have cap space left over and STILL aren’t all that threatening.
Funny to be talking about this seeing as impending FA Kori Perry was taken off the market last night. Awwe, now Free Agent Day is going to be so boring. Newsflash: Free Agent Day is ALWAYS pretty boring. Anyway back to the Rangers! Some terrible jokes to illustrate my thoughts: `

Whats the difference between Marian Gaborik and Kyle Turris? Turris has 2 more points and costs only $6,100,000 fewer dollars per year!

Jim O`Brien walks into a bar and says, `Hey Brad Richards, I know I have more goals than you (and so do 5 other Sens players) but it aint all bad news, I just got second place in a beauty contest!`

Fuck these are so shitty. One more…

`Something something, Robin Lehner is outplaying Henrik Lundqvist except something something 3 AHL defenders in front of him`

I think you`ve had enough. But you see what I`m saying though. Part of what makes a great coach isn’t just how well he can play Xs and Os (Am I right Sideshow Corey Clouston?) but how well he OR SHE can motivate their players. No one and I mean no one can convince me that another coach is doing that like MacLean is. If  MacLean isn’t even at least nominated well….

…except make what he`s saying about Ottawa coaching stuff…

Why Paul MacLean SHOULD NOT win the Jack Adams

Well sir, much like the “You there, Patrick Kane, hit a homerun” that impending Jack Adams winner Joel Quenneville can’t teach nor can Paul MacLean teach the outstanding goaltending he is getting from the guys who are getting absolutely shelled game in and game out. Hold on for a brief interruption:

THIS IS AN OTTAWA SENATORS AND I AM TALKING ABOUT THE TEAM BEING CARRIED BY OUTSTANDING GOALTENDING I REPEAT OUTSTANDING GOALTENDING WAS THE WAY I DESCRIBED OTTAWA”S GOALTENDING.

Despite being 2nd worst in the league for shots against, Andy *kisses index finger points it at the sky*, Bishop and Lehner have given the Sens a significant amount of wins or mercy points in games that would have flat out lost without their brilliant play.

As I’ve mentioned in a previous post (fact check me! I dare you! I DOUBLE DARE YOU) I’ve found MacLean’s coaching prowess was more of a conversation in the media last year.  To you and I this is laughable as he’s getting similar results without his top scorer, starting goaltender and Norris winning defenseman AND OTHER GUYS AS WELL…but this is the world we live in as Sens fans. Remember when Ottawa went on an 11 game winning streak in 2010 that basically no one outside the city even mentioned because the Washington Capitals were going on a similar winning streak? Yeah, that’s the perspective I come from when it comes to this stuff. Its not a bad one either if you ask me. Those same previously lauded Caps are now getting put through the meat grinder for their completely awful season. For us, everything that goes positive is layer upon layer of delicious crystal gravy.

Like Karlsson last year, win or lose we know this guy deserves this thing but…who knows how the votes will go. I just wish there was a Masterton Trophy for coaches because I would have to think MacLean would get a clean sweep for that thing with the amount of shit he’s had to go through so far.

Patrick Wiercioch thinking about his future and hoping that the nicknames bestowed upon him are merciful.

Hello all you men and women out there! Today on this website I would like to calmly discuss with you how Patrick Wiercioch is quickly becoming a bit of a thing.
His clutch tying goal in last night’s shootout loss to Montreal basically secured Ottawa the point. If Wiercioch can keep his production up he is going to be talked about more and more…take now for example!

Jack Edwards wasn’t mispronouncing his name he really is Patrick Weird Shot

Because the NHL can bite my butt, I watched several Binghamton games this year where, along with André Benoit, Wiercioch served as one of the BSens go-to puck moving offensive defensemen. In his 32 games in Bingo before the NHL got its shit together, he had 19 points. 10 of which were goals and 4 of them coming on the powerplay. I got to see a number of those goals get scored and I noticed even back then something interesting about a lot of them. They came off of really strange looking shots. Wiercioch seems to have a propensity to get off these low, dipping wobblers that manage to find their way in. In a flattering word his shot can be described as deceptive.
Now, I’ll be honest when I saw these strange bouncers going in again and again during his time in Binghamton I couldn’t help but think, “That’s great and all but you’re going to have to learn to put a little more mustard and cheese (ugh, sorry) on that thing if you’re going to take shots from the point in the NHL.” Anyway, examining his three NHL goals so far, recognize Johnny Blaze ain’t a damn thing changed:

Tying Goal in the 3^rd period Last Night Vs. Montreal. This one is straight up hot. Replay the “Inside the Net” angle several times for full appreciation!

First NHL Vs. Islanders. Ties the the game at 2 with just over a minute left in the 3^rd Note the weird knuckle puck action! Lucky? Who gives a rip if it goes in, it goes in.

Goal putting Ottawa up 2-0 in the first Vs. Rangers Again, weird shot in full effect. Look at the wobble on that thing…by the way, that ain’t exactly Dan Clouthier in net either!

Shut up, me!

I don’t know about you Eddie but I like the idea of a guy who can go low blocker or five hole from way up high in the slot. As for the argument that with the exception of the Montreal goal, the other two were a bit lucky I’m beginning to think otherwise. Having watched Wiercioch all season from AHL to NHL Im starting to think if these shots are lucky then that’s a lot of luck. I could be wrong on this but maybe it’s more of a tactic. Follow me:
We are now in the era of the Carey Price type goalie. They are big in the net with good movement laterally, and most importantly are textbook positionally. I think you see a lot of shots go wide these days because it seems you have to pick the absolute corner to beat most goalies high. It’s the weird dribblers bouncing off stuff and skipping off the ice that are going to make up a percentage of what fools the Lundqvists of the world (curse that handsome devil!).

Let’s Talk About Sex Replacing Gonchar

Obviously its really early to tell here but its undeniable that Wiercioch is starting to make a case for a full time job next season. He is the Mika Zibanejad of defensemen. Is he getting a lot of minutes? No. Is he trusted in all situations yet? No. Is he starting to put up some noticeable points? Definitely. This bodes well for a rookie in a line up like Ottawa currently has. He’s getting a bit more of a look he would have if the team was healthier and is taking advantage of it.

Let me start off by saying Patrick Wiercioch is no Sergei Gonchar. We’re talking about replacing a guy who’s a veteran of 17 seasons, a Cup champion with 2 Olympic medals and has played in 5 All Star games. Gonchar has played 94 more playoff games than Wiercioch has NHL games. The other thing though is that Sergei Gonchar isn’t really Sergei Gonchar. At least not since he’s been here. When Murray first signed him I thought we were getting that game breaking bastard that I hated so much in Pittsburgh. I don’t think his time here has been quite as disappointing as it’s seemed but I would be remiss if I didn’t say he’s frustrated the hell out of me on far more occasions than i’d hoped. I commend him in that he stepped up both last year in the playoffs with one of the team’s strongest performances and this year when he was handed Erik Karlsson level burnout minutes at age 38. He also sits 3^rd on the team in points. Thanks bro! But real talk, this is Gonchar’s last season in Ottawa. That is of course if he make’s it past the trade deadline. Regardless, misgivings about the $5.5MM salary aside, he could take a $3MM dip in pay and I would bet the organisation would still not re-sign the soon to be 39 year old defenceman. I mean who is he, CHRIS PHILLIPS!? HAHAHAHA AH….ha….*cough*…huh…*stares at shoes*….another year to go.
Right, so, suffice to say, with Gonchar’s impending exit one would hope that the Sens era of “We’ll fill this hole in the lineup with an overpriced veteran” as strategy will end. With Silfverberg and Zibanejad all but assured top six jobs next season and Turris signed long term, the youth movement is underway at forward and a continued changing of the guard is realistic on defense. Observe THIS:

 Methot – Karlsson

Cowen – Wiercioch

Phillips – Frozen Dinner

Based on what you’ve seen from Wiercioch so far do you think this is a D corps you could hang your hat on? Sergei Gonchar has a poise with the puck and a world class vision that you probably cannot teach but also he’s looked flat out terrible at times in Ottawa. Before the season started I would have advocated a signing for someone to play with Cowen upon his return but I’m really starting to think Wiercioch could hold down a second paring job and bring a little more speed and toughness than Gonchar ever did here.
For me, Wiercioch has so far shown he’s got great lateral movement at the blueline, a good breakout pass, decent hands, a bit of toughness and adequate foot speed for the NHL. The biggest question I can think of is how will he respond to the increased minutes? Wiercioch gets the least amount of ice time of all active Ottawa defenders. Factor in Karlsson and he gets the 7th lowest amount. Though it can be said that he’s being sheltered because he’s a rookie, that doesn’t hold too much water considering fellow greenhorns Eric Gryba and Andre Benoit have been handed heavier workloads. Also important to keep in mind Wiercioch wasnt even a top pairing defenceman in Binghamton. Consider he went -14 on a Calder Cup winning team…and then -14 again the next year. Frankly, he’s shown pretty slow development overall. But that was then and the NHL is a “what have you done for me lately” business and he’s been delivering to the point that barring a trade or free agent signing, a top 4 spot is presumably his to lose next season. Do you think Weird Shot has what it takes?

So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

I guess this will be a semi-regular feature when I take slow Fridays in the office to look around the league and comment on things like P.A. Parenteau’s affinity for Bethesda Studio video games. Enjoy!

Habs-Stars Trade

You know how sometimes you hear about a trade that “makes sense for both teams” and everyone pats themselves on the back and does forty minutes worth of analysis anyways? Well, the Eric Cole for Michael Ryder trade is a weird, weird trade for both teams. I don’t think both teams lose, but…no, no, they pretty much both lose.

From the Habs’ perspective, it’s surreal to be sitting atop their conference and trade a leader, veteran, and top six player—even if Cole was having a terrible start to his season—for a guy who they basically booted out of town on the back of unrealistic expectations. Ryder is playing better hockey right now—again, possibly as a result of not playing in Montreal—and they got a pick, but you have to think this sends a strange message to the dressing room. Kudos to Bergevin, though, if he’s got a blueprint for a rebuild and he’s sticking to it, even if his team is acting like a contender. But the timing is particularly bizarre. The team is playing its best hockey. What a weirdo.

Dallas, meanwhile, sticks to its blueprint of rostering very old players making too much money. So…excellent job?

Speaking of contending, I suppose it’s time for all of us to admit we were wrong about Therrien. The Habs aren’t just benefiting from puck luck, or getting dominant goaltending; they’re dominating possession, outshooting their opponents by a wide margin, and playing with all kinds of confidence. They have a solid mix of veterans and skilled rookies, and you can’t underestimate the effect of having a healthy Andrei Markov on that team. I said before the season started that Montreal wasn’t your traditional rebuild waiting to happen, and they’re proving me right. They have too much skill to be anything worse than a bubble team. But Therrien is putting it all together, giving this team an identity and a purpose, and juggling his ice time perfectly.

Calgary refuses to recognize their situation

The O’Reilly offer sheet from Calgary, in and of itself, wasn’t anything too shocking; team offers premium for very good two way player. Ho hum. But what it signifies for a team like Calgary is almost shocking.

This team, sitting 14th in the West, sixth last overall, and with the seventh highest payroll in the league, was willing to give up a first and third round pick for the opportunity to pay Ryan O’Reilly $6.5MM next year. That’s dumbfounding. O’Reilly’s a great player (not $6.5MM great, but pretty great), but how could Calgary possibly look at their situation, at the golden opportunity they have with all of those still-productive-but-expensive veterans, and not launch one hell of a rebuild? It’s a deep draft; they could enter it with multiple first round picks if they play their cards right. Instead, they want to re-up with the sad old strategy that hasn’t worked for them for years. I feel bad for Calgary fans. I expect to see an announcement that they’ve re-signed Iginla any day now. David Simon could write a season of The Wire based on the Calgary Flames’ management.

As for the Avalanche, well, Greg Sherman’s press conference was pretty hilarious. They’d always made it a priority to sign O’Reilly, and they got it done? Are you kidding me? So, they were waiting to sign him…on somebody else’s terms? I’m already reading that they’ll trade him once the year embargo on matched offer sheets is up, and that seems obvious. I bet Calgary will be first in line to give up even more than a first and third rounder for the privilege.

Turris’ problems

James has written on this blog about Turris’ scoring problems, and they don’t need to be restated here. Though beyond all the goose eggs I was also struck by his performance against Montreal earlier this week. He was all over the ice—falling, taking a bad hooking penalty in OT, attempting low-yield passes through traffic, and just generally looking exactly like a player who knows he’s in a slump and is trying too hard to bust out of it. It’s telling that the kind of guys who are scoring—Greening, O’Brien, Dziurzynski—aren’t really capable of doing much more than going hard to the net and getting some lucky bounces.

Dziurzynski is the perfect foil for Turris right now: goes out and in ten minutes of ice time wires a lucky shot far side on Price, one of the best goaltenders in the league, while Turris, playing in every situation, gets his chances and is unable to finish. I don’t want to be like a Maple Loafs fan circa 1998, a proponent of lunch pail hockey at the expense of, you know, watchable hockey, but Turris needs to smoke an enormous doob before his next game and just let shit take care of itself. (Note: I am not a hockey coach, and this is terrible advice.)

Too bad Paul MacLean doesn’t have too many other options in order to take the pressure off of Turris. What is he going to do; play 19 year old Mika Zibanejad 20 minutes a game? Play Alfie at center? Wait…has he tried playing Alfie at center?

PMac for Jacko Mc’Adams?

At what point do the analysts stop talking about how Alfredsson should be traded once Ottawa inevitably goes off a cliff and start talking about how Paul MacLean should win the Jack Adams for having this team in fifth place in the East with THAT LINEUP? He was a finalist last year after coaching a fully stocked team to eighth. You could argue that his teams are being badly outshot and he’s saved by a trio of brilliant goaltenders. You could also argue that this team had the fifth lowest payroll in the league before it lost $23 MILLION in salary to injuries. If injured reserved didn’t count against the cap, Ottawa would have a payroll of about $30.6MM against a $70MM cap, or a staggering $20MM lower than the lowest payrolled team, which is St. Louis.

Big Rig Beer

Pretty good! Can’t hold a candle to Kichesippi 1855, and gets a little pissy if it’s not shockingly cold, but a worthy addition in a city that’s getting its fair share of really great craft brews. Great job Phillipsy!

In the past week, following Karlsson’s terrible injury and our official entry into wacky, SBP-is-haunted territory, Melnyk has shown up again and again in the media to voice is discontent. Discontent itself isn’t unusual; it’s a devastating injury, happening to pretty much the last player you’d want to see go down, and inflicted with whatever degree of intention by someone with a rotten reputation.

But at what point does someone–for the love of god, anyone–have a conversation with Melnyk about what the ideal role of a pro sports franchise owner can be? Owners can absolutely help their team win, and it’s not just by signing the cheques. They can also be the responsible voice of a classy, distinguished brand.

Look at Jeff Vinik in Tampa Bay. Other than showing his face at charitable events, maybe at the draft, he’s largely invisible. He’ll send out a press release congratulating his team on a good season, keep in communication with his General Manager, and other than that he pretty much leaves the hockey to the hockey people. And, most importantly, he stays the hell out of the media.

Melnyk, on the other hand, is much closer to the Terry Pegula school of rich-boy-with-a-team ownership. Forgetting the rumours that Melnyk is the one that influenced the signing of Alex Kovalev (for which there is less than substantial evidence), his presence on radio stations and in the print media is unmistakable and embarrassing. Some of this is definitely tied to sales–I’ve become accustomed to him putting out some scare-mongering quotes about small market teams and moving the franchise suspiciously close to season tickets going on sale. But some of it seems like it’s just because he wants to.

In the last few months we’ve heard Melnyk reveal that players in the Ottawa dressing room felt they were better than eventual Stanley Cup winners Los Angeles, and if they’d been able to finish off New York in the first round they could have gone all the way. True or not, that’s the kind of leave-it-in-the-dressing-room banter that reflects poorly on the team, and on the market. It’s almost compromised trust to reveal that.

Then Melnyk starts talking about Toronto fans being drunken buffoons and how we need to actively keep them out of home games, which makes the franchise seem petulant and hypocritical. (Last time I checked alcohol was available at SBP.) It also makes Ottawa seem like it still has an anti-Leafs complex, even though the rivalry has been pretty dormant for years now.

Then Melnyk starts in on Cooke, though Ottawa has or does employ pests and thugs like Chris Neil, Jarkko Ruutu, Matt Carkner, Zenon Konoptka, Francis Lessard, and Brian McGrattan. It’s not that they shouldn’t; it’s just that that’s a hockey decision, and what does Melnyk know about it?

Of course it’s his right to be a fan, and I guess it’s his right to be a fan who is audible in the media. Privileged people get access to those kinds of things, and he’s certainly paid for that right. But at some point you have to think about how this behaviour reflects on the franchise itself, and how players–whether unrestricted free agents, or players deciding whether or not to re-sign, and for how long–think about the prestige of that logo on the front of their chest. Does Buffalo look any more prestigious because Pegula occasionally say some overblown thing about winning the Cup, or do they look like more of a basket case than ever?

Ottawa has veterans who have been with the franchise for their entire careers, and respected hockey people at every position from scouting on up through the executive. And then, right there at the top of the chain, and on the radio, is Eugene Melnyk making inarticulate (borderline incoherent, really) comments about whatever comes into his brain.

At some point somebody needs to tell him that he is as much a representative of the Ottawa Senators as the players and the management. And just as you wouldn’t expect, say, Kyle Turris to get away with hopping on every other radio show to spout off about whatever, the franchise’s media rules should apply to the honcho at the top.