14.07.2010: In which an honest-to-goodness discussion of RFA re-signings is derailed by our fear of honest-to-goodness discussions of RFA re-signings


peter to James, me
show details Jul 13 (1 day ago)

I think we need a topic for today. Forecasting the remaining Free Agent Sens. Obvs we don’t know how arbitration will play out but thanks to the always informative capgeek website we can slot these last few RFA’s by age and expected production and compare to other, similar NHL’ers.

Nick Foligno 2010 cap hit 850k – Projected 2011 cap hit 980k
Explanation – I think little Nicky is in for a raise, he’s still only 22 and had reasonable production for someone who only played 60 games last year. If he stays healthy 30-35 points is not an unreasonable expectation.
Comparable players: Martin Hanzal, Bryan Little, Nikolai Kulemin. Hanzal at a cap hit of
980k would be best case scenario. While a number similar to Kulemin’s would be a worst case scenario since its is a bit steep at 1.48m

Chris Campoli 2010 cap hit 600k – Projected cap hit 1.35m
CapGeek actually rates Campoli as a top 25 bargain defenceman last year which can only mean he’s in for a raise too. It’s not hard to see why examining other D men similar production and age. Guys like Tim Gleason, Andrej Mezaros and Joe Corvo’s new deal do not bode well for Melnyk’s bottom line. Best case scenario would probably be around 1.3 m which would put him on par with guys like Braydon Coburn. Worst case scenario would be Nick Schultz with his cap hit of 3.5m.

Peter Regin 2010 cap hit 600k – Projected cap hit 835k
Again, like Campoli Regin is in the top 20 for points per dollar. I know its not the only evaluation of a player but considering the injuries and multiple lineups iced by Clouston last year and his age we’re looking at the Dane tapping Melnyk on the shoulder next time he’s at the ATM. Best case scenario would probably someone like Tim Kennedy or Gilbert Brule hovering around the 850k mark. Worst case would be a deal comparable to Peter Mueller’s 1.7m in Colorado.

So if it shakes out similar to the numbers projected above B Murray will be about 50k over the cap if he decides to bring back all three. Which I’m starting to think isn’t going to happen.  I won’t begin to speculate on an appropriate course of action. Do I dare agree with Don Brennan and bounce Campoli from club fancy pants? My inclination is to believe that maybe Cory Locke or another 2-way contract can earn a full time roster spot thus sacrificing one of the forwards?

I’d crunch the numbers for other remaining sens but if any females end up reading this blog I can count on personally signing celibacy to a long term deal..

Thoughts?

Conrad to peter, James
show details Jul 13 (1 day ago)

RFA forecasting is always a bit tricky because intangibles tend to weigh heavily. I’ve heard some estimates for Foligno or Regin reaching $2M, others seeing them with incremental increases like you’ve predicted. Most of the time the player seems to argue that the team plans to use them in a certain way that justifies the salary bump (i.e. Regin could end up a top six forward this year) while the team emphasizes current stats. And the hearing results with it somewhere in the middle, maybe leaning toward management – a one year “prove yourself” contract.

Comparing Foligno and Regin is hard to do. Regin obviously has some flash and skill, but Foligno has the better pedigree, and may have a higher ceiling. He’s exactly the hard working grinder who may or may not have hands that the Sens have traditionally lacked, and so may represent the greater value for the club. But arbitration is about trying to judge in a vacuum, which seems why they usually fall towards management a little.

Pete, I think your predictions are reasonable, if a little low. I think Regin and Foligno may break the $1M barrier easily. The biggest threat, in terms of cap hit, is Campoli in my opinion. Easily a top 4 D man on some teams, he’s been underpayed the last two seasons and could get a big bump. He can move the puck, he can play the PP – Mezaros isn’t a bad comparison, thoough obvioulsy Mez was older when he got his deal from Tampa.

Obviously frustrating that the team can’t do more until these hearings are over. Roman Wick, who looked good at the olympics, was signed today. He’s another many (read: some) goals / no assists guy in the tradition of Brandon Bochenski and Patrick Eaves. At some point Clouston will put him on a line with Spezza and see what happens. Much more excited about Bobby Butler, who’s got some wheels.

peter to me, James
show details 1:19 PM (23 hours ago)

Can we get a Stars men’s wear sponsorship out of this?

I went with the best case scenario for the RFA’s based on comparable numbers. Bottom line there isn’t room for all three. Don’t post my nerdery, one thing about sports blogs, get the numbers wrong and people jump all over you. The last thing I want to do is sacrifice the credibility of our analysis. Wait, what? Right, next I think I’ll write an inner monologue for Jason Spezza as preps for his G1 exam.

Conrad to peter, James
show details 1:44 PM (23 hours ago)

Oh man, don’t worry about nerdery. I think it’s extremely important that we only ever rate what is evidently going to be a messy (read: fun) blog against The Sun. Who are also wrong all the time, like us, but have no sense of humor. And besides, if I’ve learned anything it’s that it’s those speculative, slightly-off posts that get discussion going. Like Habs fans who don’t yet understanding what the cap is.

James to peter, me
show details 2:41 PM (22 hours ago)

Hey Guys!

Phew Im glad about the last two emails in this thread…I was initially thinking “Oh good, arbitration proceedings, the thing I understand least in the entire sport!” Well, salary arbitration and the finer points of the collective bargaining argreement. Its like the Tort Reform of hockey (where my Torties at!?!)  where I GET it but when it comes to how things are worked out behind the scenes..whew boy.
Example:
I’m eating a granola bar looking at the silver seven blog and it says “Peter Regin Files for Arbitration!”
Me: *spits out granola bar* Heavens to GRUNDO this is bad!
Guy in Comments Section: Don’t fret everyone, its just a formality for rookie RFAs to file for arbitration. It doesn’t necessarily mean bad things because fjasdflk;asdfsdkfjdf”
Me: *Believing it* Heavens to grundo this is gust a formality (good?)!

So you can see friends, I am just a drooling dog following along thinking “Im hungry” and “I hope they can resign Regin and Foligno” and “Campoli can wait in the car!”

So place me in the category of Same Reaction For Regin Resigning for a Raise of A) $88 and a new parking spot (that used to belong to Eli Wilson) and SOME dental benefits or B) Canadian Owned portion of Turks and Caicos.
I just count myself as lucky to not be the guy who gets to calculate balance among: Fringe roster player last two seasons vs. Goal against Chicago vs. Best Forward on team during playoffs.

Anyway,

Did anyone read that Cory Clouston piece in the citizen a few weeks ago where it was like “The Lighter Side of our Steely Coach” themed. Anyway, best part was how his brother was talking about his hobbies like “yeah we  like to go up to a cottage and fish” but then revealed that Clouston will periodically disappear to go do push ups” You gotta love it.

ps. i bought a suit at Stars before grad…the fit of the blazer…left quelque choses to be desired.

Peter to me, James
show details 8:16 PM (16 hours ago)

peter to me
show details 9:50 AM (3 hours ago)

Jakob Culek, recent sens draft pick. He looks like the side-kick to dog the bounty hunter.

peter to James, me
show details 10:25 AM (2 hours ago)

This link never fails to cheer me up.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000541993.html

Conrad to peter, James
show details 10:29 AM (2 hours ago)

It takes something special to score 63 points in 80 games and still finish a -46. Norm Maciver must have played 57 minutes a night.

peter to me, James
show details 10:47 AM (2 hours ago)

The “Where Are they now?” forum on Hockey DB lists Norm’s location as “On the ice, Ottawa Civic Centre.”

As a side note, it took three seasons for a Senator skater to register a plus rating (min 25 games) and the same amount of time for a goalie to have a sub 3 GAA. (Why Damian Rhodes never got the knickname of Colossus, I’ll never know)

I like to think the timing was impeccable, the Sens gawky, humiliating adolescence matched my own, gangly stride for gangly stride.

James to peter, me
show details 11:26 AM (1 hour ago)

A lot of detbates have recently sprung up with the signing of Russian star Sergei Gonchar. The most popular being the question of, before this acquisition, who is the best puck moving defenseman in Senators history? Who QB’ed the back end best?
Was it the smooth skating and pinpoint passing accuracy of Wade Redden in his prime? Or Did Zdeno Chara’s unprecedented combination of size and heavy shot best dominate the offensive-defensive game?
For me, I offer up a dark horse candidate of Brad Marsh who’s explosive 3 assists in 59 games and minus -29 Rating in 92-93 got him not only the cover of NHL ’93 but his 5th consecutive Norris. Bobby Orr once remarked Marsh(‘s recently purchased used Mazda) as “a Protégé” of sorts.

Fun Fact: Marsh holds a 15 year standing NHL record for eating three Big Extra Hamburgers in one period while remaining an impressive minus -17 on the night! This feat shattered Tiger Williams previous 2 Arby’s cheddar melts and plus +1 over the course of a whole game while with the Vancouver Canucks.

Conrad to James, peter
show details 1:04 PM (4 minutes ago)

Best PP quarterback in Sens history? Weirdly enough, I think it’s Alfie. He always seems to end up in the role halfway through a game when it’s like “The Sens are down 2-0 and Paddock / Hartsburg / Clouston are changing up the gameplan to get back on track!” Which means playing Alfie in every position at once, including in net.

peter to James, me
show details 1:25 PM (3 minutes ago)

Can I go off the board?

I’m thinking Steve Duchesne (or as pronounced by my Italian neighbor as “Dutch-es-nee”) Was pretty instrumental in 96-97, the first year they made the playoffs. I remember being mesmerized by his skating ability and how he was never out of position. Back then my hockey knowledge was pretty un-sophisticated to say the least! My idea of puck moving defenceman was Darren Rumble awkwardly back-handing the puck along the wall in his own zone before delivering a forearm shiver to the brain of the incoming forechecker.

After Redden Phillips and Chara, Jason York is the highest scoring d-man in franchise history. If Gonchar produces like he does throughout the length of his deal. He’ll pass Chara and maybe even Phillips.

An argument could be made that we’ve never really had a puck mover. Which falls in line with conrad’s choice of Alfie.

James to me, peter
show details 2:23 PM (1 hour ago)
Love the new Subtitle on the blog.

Also, pretty impressed with myself
for making a joke about Brad Marsh that ended up sparking an interesting take on the best PPQB in Sens history.
Ps. Im hosting a PPBQ this weekend.

peter to me, James
show details 2:40 PM (47 minutes ago)
To back my Stevie D claim I present the following youtube clip that not only proves my point but also proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that white, male  hockey fans can not dance. It opens with Llyndon Sssllewdge’s usual attempt to deep throat a microphone and gets better and better till it kinda just ends.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cM-muR0h9FY&feature=related

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