Varada:

The Jack Adams award is generally awarded to one of three types of coaches: 1) the one whose team wins so handily that it is assumed, in this era of parity, that it must be the coach’s system that provides that decisive edge, or 2) a coach who takes over for a team in mid-season after the incumbent is fired and turns around the team’s fortunes, steering them away from the brink of disaster and into the playoffs, or 3) a coach whose team outperforms expectations, but only because those expectations were terrible.

Mid-season consensus seems to be that the Adams is Joel Quenneville’s to lose, what with the Blackhawks leading the entire league and the next closest team by five points (which might as well be an ocean in these standings, and especially in the West). Looking at the probabilities, the only way Chicago can miss the playoffs is if they lose their last 20 games in regulation. They need two more regulation wins to clinch a playoff spot, and we’re not even at the deadline yet.

Why Paul MacLean SHOULD win the Jack Adams

Not to diminish how amazing Chicago’s run is, but we can’t ignore that the Hawks have the sixth highest payroll in the league at $66,440,128, compared to Ottawa, at sixth last, with $53,594,377. And then of course you factor in Ottawa’s injuries. Without Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, Erik Karlsson, Craig Anderson, Mike Lundin, Jared Cowen, and Dave Dziurzynski, Ottawa’s payroll is more like $33,458,544. Which would put them last in the league in payroll by a staggering $17MM.

So not only are the Blackhawks playing with roughly double the active salaries of the Senators, they’re also a team that is keeping pace with almost every other team’s salaries. Ottawa isn’t even close. If they get all of their premier players back they’ll be catapulted back into their usual spot right at the bottom of the salary chain, competing with the Columbuses and Nashvilles of the world.

Currently, Ottawa sits sixth – sixth! – in the NHL, icing what is basically an AHL team. They have the best goals against average in the league, the second best penalty kill, and the best shots-per-game in the league. Their chances at the playoffs today are 96.4%, and they’d have to go 7-10-2 before those chances dropped by a ton, and even then they’d still have a 57.4% chance of making it.

Why Paul MacLean SHOULD NOT win the Jack Adams

Underlying all of Ottawa’s success is the sneaking suspicion that they’ve been riding goaltenders, switching out hot hands like it’s nothing, and the system perhaps isn’t as impressive.

As much as their offense has been finding a way to get it done by committee, Ottawa is second worst in the entire league in shots against.

Ottawa is tied for first in the league with the most charity points, having lost in overtime six times in less than 30 games. Without those, they’re a bubble team at best.

Finally, there are plenty of teams facing adversity with low payrolls who are outperforming. How about St. Louis, with the lowest payroll in the league and currently in 4^th in the ultra-competitive West? Or Columbus having a hot streak that puts them within two points of the playoffs after what everyone assumed would be a miserable, last-place season? How about Anaheim, who spend less money than the Florida Panthers or Winnipeg Jets, and would probably be leading the league if not for Chicago playing with all of the cheats on? Ultimately, that MacLean managed to keep his boys hanging in there won’t stand up against these glamour cases.

What do you think James? *Puts glasses with pictures of awake eyes on* 

Why Paul MacLean SHOULD win the Jack Adams

We`re going to overlap in our thinking a little here but I suppose I could discuss a different angle of the hilariousness of the payroll vs. performance thing. I agree that with the kind of lineup Chicago is icing and the amount they are paying them they SHOULD be dominating…but I mean the level to which they are; your hat has to be removed to Quenneville.

The flip side of where you dial H for Hilariousnessocity is jeez, who do we pick on here… OH I KNOW my favorite punching bag the New York Rangers! On paper, the Rangers should win the Stanley Cup pretty much every year. I love picking on this team because they always land a huge free agent and STILL have cap space left over and STILL aren’t all that threatening.
Funny to be talking about this seeing as impending FA Kori Perry was taken off the market last night. Awwe, now Free Agent Day is going to be so boring. Newsflash: Free Agent Day is ALWAYS pretty boring. Anyway back to the Rangers! Some terrible jokes to illustrate my thoughts: `

Whats the difference between Marian Gaborik and Kyle Turris? Turris has 2 more points and costs only $6,100,000 fewer dollars per year!

Jim O`Brien walks into a bar and says, `Hey Brad Richards, I know I have more goals than you (and so do 5 other Sens players) but it aint all bad news, I just got second place in a beauty contest!`

Fuck these are so shitty. One more…

`Something something, Robin Lehner is outplaying Henrik Lundqvist except something something 3 AHL defenders in front of him`

I think you`ve had enough. But you see what I`m saying though. Part of what makes a great coach isn’t just how well he can play Xs and Os (Am I right Sideshow Corey Clouston?) but how well he OR SHE can motivate their players. No one and I mean no one can convince me that another coach is doing that like MacLean is. If  MacLean isn’t even at least nominated well….

…except make what he`s saying about Ottawa coaching stuff…

Why Paul MacLean SHOULD NOT win the Jack Adams

Well sir, much like the “You there, Patrick Kane, hit a homerun” that impending Jack Adams winner Joel Quenneville can’t teach nor can Paul MacLean teach the outstanding goaltending he is getting from the guys who are getting absolutely shelled game in and game out. Hold on for a brief interruption:

THIS IS AN OTTAWA SENATORS AND I AM TALKING ABOUT THE TEAM BEING CARRIED BY OUTSTANDING GOALTENDING I REPEAT OUTSTANDING GOALTENDING WAS THE WAY I DESCRIBED OTTAWA”S GOALTENDING.

Despite being 2nd worst in the league for shots against, Andy *kisses index finger points it at the sky*, Bishop and Lehner have given the Sens a significant amount of wins or mercy points in games that would have flat out lost without their brilliant play.

As I’ve mentioned in a previous post (fact check me! I dare you! I DOUBLE DARE YOU) I’ve found MacLean’s coaching prowess was more of a conversation in the media last year.  To you and I this is laughable as he’s getting similar results without his top scorer, starting goaltender and Norris winning defenseman AND OTHER GUYS AS WELL…but this is the world we live in as Sens fans. Remember when Ottawa went on an 11 game winning streak in 2010 that basically no one outside the city even mentioned because the Washington Capitals were going on a similar winning streak? Yeah, that’s the perspective I come from when it comes to this stuff. Its not a bad one either if you ask me. Those same previously lauded Caps are now getting put through the meat grinder for their completely awful season. For us, everything that goes positive is layer upon layer of delicious crystal gravy.

Like Karlsson last year, win or lose we know this guy deserves this thing but…who knows how the votes will go. I just wish there was a Masterton Trophy for coaches because I would have to think MacLean would get a clean sweep for that thing with the amount of shit he’s had to go through so far.

So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

I guess this will be a semi-regular feature when I take slow Fridays in the office to look around the league and comment on things like P.A. Parenteau’s affinity for Bethesda Studio video games. Enjoy!

Habs-Stars Trade

You know how sometimes you hear about a trade that “makes sense for both teams” and everyone pats themselves on the back and does forty minutes worth of analysis anyways? Well, the Eric Cole for Michael Ryder trade is a weird, weird trade for both teams. I don’t think both teams lose, but…no, no, they pretty much both lose.

From the Habs’ perspective, it’s surreal to be sitting atop their conference and trade a leader, veteran, and top six player—even if Cole was having a terrible start to his season—for a guy who they basically booted out of town on the back of unrealistic expectations. Ryder is playing better hockey right now—again, possibly as a result of not playing in Montreal—and they got a pick, but you have to think this sends a strange message to the dressing room. Kudos to Bergevin, though, if he’s got a blueprint for a rebuild and he’s sticking to it, even if his team is acting like a contender. But the timing is particularly bizarre. The team is playing its best hockey. What a weirdo.

Dallas, meanwhile, sticks to its blueprint of rostering very old players making too much money. So…excellent job?

Speaking of contending, I suppose it’s time for all of us to admit we were wrong about Therrien. The Habs aren’t just benefiting from puck luck, or getting dominant goaltending; they’re dominating possession, outshooting their opponents by a wide margin, and playing with all kinds of confidence. They have a solid mix of veterans and skilled rookies, and you can’t underestimate the effect of having a healthy Andrei Markov on that team. I said before the season started that Montreal wasn’t your traditional rebuild waiting to happen, and they’re proving me right. They have too much skill to be anything worse than a bubble team. But Therrien is putting it all together, giving this team an identity and a purpose, and juggling his ice time perfectly.

Calgary refuses to recognize their situation

The O’Reilly offer sheet from Calgary, in and of itself, wasn’t anything too shocking; team offers premium for very good two way player. Ho hum. But what it signifies for a team like Calgary is almost shocking.

This team, sitting 14th in the West, sixth last overall, and with the seventh highest payroll in the league, was willing to give up a first and third round pick for the opportunity to pay Ryan O’Reilly $6.5MM next year. That’s dumbfounding. O’Reilly’s a great player (not $6.5MM great, but pretty great), but how could Calgary possibly look at their situation, at the golden opportunity they have with all of those still-productive-but-expensive veterans, and not launch one hell of a rebuild? It’s a deep draft; they could enter it with multiple first round picks if they play their cards right. Instead, they want to re-up with the sad old strategy that hasn’t worked for them for years. I feel bad for Calgary fans. I expect to see an announcement that they’ve re-signed Iginla any day now. David Simon could write a season of The Wire based on the Calgary Flames’ management.

As for the Avalanche, well, Greg Sherman’s press conference was pretty hilarious. They’d always made it a priority to sign O’Reilly, and they got it done? Are you kidding me? So, they were waiting to sign him…on somebody else’s terms? I’m already reading that they’ll trade him once the year embargo on matched offer sheets is up, and that seems obvious. I bet Calgary will be first in line to give up even more than a first and third rounder for the privilege.

Turris’ problems

James has written on this blog about Turris’ scoring problems, and they don’t need to be restated here. Though beyond all the goose eggs I was also struck by his performance against Montreal earlier this week. He was all over the ice—falling, taking a bad hooking penalty in OT, attempting low-yield passes through traffic, and just generally looking exactly like a player who knows he’s in a slump and is trying too hard to bust out of it. It’s telling that the kind of guys who are scoring—Greening, O’Brien, Dziurzynski—aren’t really capable of doing much more than going hard to the net and getting some lucky bounces.

Dziurzynski is the perfect foil for Turris right now: goes out and in ten minutes of ice time wires a lucky shot far side on Price, one of the best goaltenders in the league, while Turris, playing in every situation, gets his chances and is unable to finish. I don’t want to be like a Maple Loafs fan circa 1998, a proponent of lunch pail hockey at the expense of, you know, watchable hockey, but Turris needs to smoke an enormous doob before his next game and just let shit take care of itself. (Note: I am not a hockey coach, and this is terrible advice.)

Too bad Paul MacLean doesn’t have too many other options in order to take the pressure off of Turris. What is he going to do; play 19 year old Mika Zibanejad 20 minutes a game? Play Alfie at center? Wait…has he tried playing Alfie at center?

PMac for Jacko Mc’Adams?

At what point do the analysts stop talking about how Alfredsson should be traded once Ottawa inevitably goes off a cliff and start talking about how Paul MacLean should win the Jack Adams for having this team in fifth place in the East with THAT LINEUP? He was a finalist last year after coaching a fully stocked team to eighth. You could argue that his teams are being badly outshot and he’s saved by a trio of brilliant goaltenders. You could also argue that this team had the fifth lowest payroll in the league before it lost $23 MILLION in salary to injuries. If injured reserved didn’t count against the cap, Ottawa would have a payroll of about $30.6MM against a $70MM cap, or a staggering $20MM lower than the lowest payrolled team, which is St. Louis.

Big Rig Beer

Pretty good! Can’t hold a candle to Kichesippi 1855, and gets a little pissy if it’s not shockingly cold, but a worthy addition in a city that’s getting its fair share of really great craft brews. Great job Phillipsy!

In the past week, following Karlsson’s terrible injury and our official entry into wacky, SBP-is-haunted territory, Melnyk has shown up again and again in the media to voice is discontent. Discontent itself isn’t unusual; it’s a devastating injury, happening to pretty much the last player you’d want to see go down, and inflicted with whatever degree of intention by someone with a rotten reputation.

But at what point does someone–for the love of god, anyone–have a conversation with Melnyk about what the ideal role of a pro sports franchise owner can be? Owners can absolutely help their team win, and it’s not just by signing the cheques. They can also be the responsible voice of a classy, distinguished brand.

Look at Jeff Vinik in Tampa Bay. Other than showing his face at charitable events, maybe at the draft, he’s largely invisible. He’ll send out a press release congratulating his team on a good season, keep in communication with his General Manager, and other than that he pretty much leaves the hockey to the hockey people. And, most importantly, he stays the hell out of the media.

Melnyk, on the other hand, is much closer to the Terry Pegula school of rich-boy-with-a-team ownership. Forgetting the rumours that Melnyk is the one that influenced the signing of Alex Kovalev (for which there is less than substantial evidence), his presence on radio stations and in the print media is unmistakable and embarrassing. Some of this is definitely tied to sales–I’ve become accustomed to him putting out some scare-mongering quotes about small market teams and moving the franchise suspiciously close to season tickets going on sale. But some of it seems like it’s just because he wants to.

In the last few months we’ve heard Melnyk reveal that players in the Ottawa dressing room felt they were better than eventual Stanley Cup winners Los Angeles, and if they’d been able to finish off New York in the first round they could have gone all the way. True or not, that’s the kind of leave-it-in-the-dressing-room banter that reflects poorly on the team, and on the market. It’s almost compromised trust to reveal that.

Then Melnyk starts talking about Toronto fans being drunken buffoons and how we need to actively keep them out of home games, which makes the franchise seem petulant and hypocritical. (Last time I checked alcohol was available at SBP.) It also makes Ottawa seem like it still has an anti-Leafs complex, even though the rivalry has been pretty dormant for years now.

Then Melnyk starts in on Cooke, though Ottawa has or does employ pests and thugs like Chris Neil, Jarkko Ruutu, Matt Carkner, Zenon Konoptka, Francis Lessard, and Brian McGrattan. It’s not that they shouldn’t; it’s just that that’s a hockey decision, and what does Melnyk know about it?

Of course it’s his right to be a fan, and I guess it’s his right to be a fan who is audible in the media. Privileged people get access to those kinds of things, and he’s certainly paid for that right. But at some point you have to think about how this behaviour reflects on the franchise itself, and how players–whether unrestricted free agents, or players deciding whether or not to re-sign, and for how long–think about the prestige of that logo on the front of their chest. Does Buffalo look any more prestigious because Pegula occasionally say some overblown thing about winning the Cup, or do they look like more of a basket case than ever?

Ottawa has veterans who have been with the franchise for their entire careers, and respected hockey people at every position from scouting on up through the executive. And then, right there at the top of the chain, and on the radio, is Eugene Melnyk making inarticulate (borderline incoherent, really) comments about whatever comes into his brain.

At some point somebody needs to tell him that he is as much a representative of the Ottawa Senators as the players and the management. And just as you wouldn’t expect, say, Kyle Turris to get away with hopping on every other radio show to spout off about whatever, the franchise’s media rules should apply to the honcho at the top.

In this case Otis is Spezza. Possibly Bryan Murray.

Varada:

Assessing the mood on Twitter and Facebook, Karlsson’s gruesome, traumatic injury last night has struck a chord. It’s not just what it means for the Senators season, though we all know that with Karlsson, Spezza, and Cowen out for the season, and a combination of Michalek, Regin, Latendresse, and Gonchar already missing time, it’s enough to start reading pages like this one with greater interest. It’s more than a lost season. There’s a sort of sick feeling in the pit of the stomach because of this one, something worse than no playoffs.

I’ve been trying to put my finger on it. I didn’t feel this way when Spezza had back surgery. Alfie, the team’s most cherished and respected player, has missed time due to surgery before, and I’m not sure if I felt this way when it happened.

There’s something about seeing Karlsson’s face in AP photographer Gene J. Puskar’s various close-up photos; the way his face contorts in agony when he tries to put weight on his foot again; even in the way he throws his stick in frustration as he’s being helped off the ice. This was a sick injury (I’m reminded of a scene at the end of the Korean movie Old Boy, a scene designed to convey ultimate revenge, vulnerability, and horror.) It was like watching a car wreck: pointless, tragic, devastating. You can’t help but separate yourself from the fact that this is a game and feel real empathy for the guy.

Once the horror wears off a little bit, the sick stomach doesn’t end. There’s also the feeling that we’re losing a season of a dominant, transcendent athlete in his absolute prime, a player who is an absolute joy to watch. And there’s the fear that this injury, which may require up to a year of rehab and recovery, will somehow affect this player for the rest of his career. Karlsson was enjoying not just a good season; in many ways he even improved on his Norris-winning performance last year. He’s leading the entire league in shots, and has almost double the number of shots as the next defenceman, Jack Johnson, who is 46th. He may still win the Finnish league’s scoring title for defenceman, despite the fact that he left Jokerit a month ago, giving his competition plenty of time to catch up. He’s been playing with an undeniable confidence, propelling a surprising team to playoff contention, and almost single-handedly breaking the game wide open on almost a nightly basis.

This was a tough season already, but there’s something about this injury that is much, much worse than perhaps missing out on the playoffs (in a shortened season, and with a deep draft to console ourselves). There’s a fear that we won’t get the old Karlsson back. The sky was the limit this time yesterday. Now, I feel robbed of something special. That it happened on a nothing play, as just the arbitrary, chaotic nature of a fast, physical game played on razor sharp blades, makes it all seem so pointless and unfair.

In any case, we here at WTYKY, who derive our very name from a love for our Special Little Guy, are thinking about him today and wishing him a speedy recovery. Not just so he can get back here and help this team win a Cup, but because we feel for him and wish him well.

If you’re reading this blog, you’ve probably spent some time playing / being frustrated with EA’s ‘Be a GM’ mode in its NHL video games. There’s maybe nothing as satisfying as managing an Islanders-like team to a conference final on the back of your decision to sign Jaromir Jagr to a one-year, $6MM contract. Similarly, there’s maybe nothing as frustrating as trying to get around the expectations set by in-game ownership algorithms. Pick Calgary, for example. When you’re looking at which team you want to try to rebuild, Calgary’s owners think they’re a contender. You trade off your assets and they fire your ass. So, it’s exactly like real life then. How else do you explain their decision to sign Jiri Hudler and Dennis Wideman to multi-year, big money contracts? Somewhere in the back room, someone is playing NHL 2013 and it worked out for them.

If you were going to steward a rebuild, why not pick a contender? Well, there’s not much challenge in that. Give me the Vancouver Canucks or Boston Bruins and watch me do nothing but smoke cigars in the owner’s box. How about a team already rebuilding? Columbus traded what assets they had, and their rebuild is now set in motion. You’re committed to those assets brought back in the Nash trade, even if there’s no way in hell I would have traded for Jack Johnson. No thanks. Washington is promising, though it feels like only yesterday they finished their rebuild. I suppose I could fantasize about managing my home team Senators, but that’s pretty much what this blog is all about anyway.

Now Calgary…that’s a team just primed for an explosive rebuild. Take a look at these contracts. You could really put your stamp on that team, a team so ready to be messily and horribly disassembled in the public eye.

Currently Calgary spend more on player salaries than all but nine other teams in the league, and they sit dead last. Let’s have a look.

Jarome Iginla is going to hear his name in trade rumors all the way up to the deadline unless they lock him up to an extension. (Which they shouldn’t.) He alone can get you a package of picks and prospects that you can build on, something enviable to fanbases like ours who saw Ottawa launch their rebuild on the back of a Mike Fisher trade.

Anton Babchuk is also on an expiring contract. He’s your prototypical powerplay specialist and depth defenseman, exactly the kind of player that fetches you a pick at the deadline.

Kiprusoff and Bouwmeester both have a year left on their contracts after this season, but if someone is actually willing to take on a million years of Luongo’s remaining contract, with most of those years paying him close to $7MM per, then you can find a taker for Kipper. Bouwmeester has never played on a good team, and with the right expectations he could flourish. Both of these guys get you at least a pick or prospect, Kipper probably more.

Cammalleri, too, only has a year left. Watch those who miss out on the free agent bonanza next season start looking for top-tier wingers in the off-season. Especially with Calgary able to keep a part of the salary in a trade, they could maximize their return here.

Stepniak, Tanguay, and Stajan are probably only moderately tradeable, if at all. Outside of Stepniak, who sort of sucks, there’s a lot of years and money left on those deals.

Calgary isn’t a large market team, but they sure act like it. If they’re willing to swallow some of the salary on their big contracts, they could essentially buy their competition’s picks and prospects. We have yet to see anyone really take advantage of these provisions in the new CBA. Calgary should be the first. It would be a blast to see. I tried it in NHL 2011 (the last version of the game I bought) and I was fired after the first season because we finished third last.

If you could rebuild any team, who would you want to rebuild most?

Like most teams in a league that has taken huge strides to ensure parity, Ottawa finds themselves in that creamy, mediocre middle band. Not elite, not terrible; capable of making the playoffs one year, but always feeling like they’re one or two key injuries or Craig Anderson becoming human away from sinking below the magical 8^th seed cut-off. Expectations are a tricky thing; right now, while most of us armchair pundits would be disappointed but not crushed to find the team outside the playoff picture, and while rookies are just that, there’s a wide, forgiving berth.

It’s easy to lose sight of how optimal Ottawa’s situation is right now. A few key veterans—Spezza, Michalek, Anderson, and I suppose Karlsson is about a season away from not being considered a newbie anymore—are in their prime. A few older guys—Alfredsson, Phillips, Gonchar—provide the mustard and stories about how Springfield and Shelbyville once fought over a lemon tree. And an ocean of young talent with fresh faces and nebulous ceilings enjoy playing PSP on the plane. While Ottawa’s window to contend is certainly not open, its window to be a playoff competitor is. It’s an exciting team to watch.

The next season or two is going to be when the rebuild is really put to the test. Alfredsson and Gonchar are on their way out. Michalek will have one year left on his deal (and one that pays him $6MM) after this season, and Spezza two. Both of them will find themselves entering declining territory as they hit their 30s, and hard questions will have to be asked about their role on the team and what kind of contracts they should receive. Phillips is on a similar timeline, with it looking likely that he might be squeezed out by emerging talent on the back end. If the Zibanejads, Silfverbergs, Stones, and Lehners don’t pan out, or if this team doesn’t commit to a big purchase on the free agent market, the team could find itself settling for the next half-dozen years into that creamy middle: not quite elite, not quite terrible.

That’s why it sometimes pays to go with quantity during a rebuild, and why the organization’s decision to go with less pain in the short term might keep the team from becoming a true contender in the long term. Only time will tell of course.

The big question, for me, is whether the team decides to continue to build internally or to make that big trade. When we saw Ottawa deep in talks with Columbus last year, the rumor was they were willing to part with blue chip forward and goalie prospects, a first round pick, and a roster player for an aging and expensive Rick Nash. That should be worrisome, but unsurprising to fans. I’ve written on this blog before that I don’t think this management has the appetite for a true rebuild, and half-measures and Hail Marys might take the place of slow, methodical building.

There’s still lots of time to see where Ottawa’s prospects end up. Silfverberg and Stone both kind of came out of nowhere, projected to either be lower pairing players or not play in the NHL at all, and these long-bomb successes would make one or more of the team’s higher end prospects not working out easier to take. But without the incredibly deep pools that teams like St. Louis, Los Angeles, and Washington enjoyed when they launched their rebuilds, Ottawa is going to have to make contact more often than not, and really hit it out of the park in free agency, if it’s going to add to those banners above.