Brian Lee for Matt Gilroy. Clearly Ottawa is now a Cup contender. They were also considering a deal for a bale of hay, which would have been more mobile than Matt Carkner.

And so ended the definition of anticlimactic programming, as TSN’s entire synergistic strategy – to become about hockey at all times – exploded in their face. Using their “DAN-DAN-DAN / DAN-DAN-DAN!” sound effect every time there was a trade was adorable, especially when the trades were THIS BAD. I think Bob MacKenzie was playing Jet Pack Joyride on his Blackberry.

Most surprising of course were the teams that really, really should have done something, or at least more, and who sat pat. I’m not talking about the contenders, though I am surprised that Philadelphia didn’t do something else, if only because they feel a compulsion to constantly trade and sign players. I’m talking mostly about Edmonton, Minnesota, Montreal, Carolina. I can understand Columbus not trading Rick Nash, because they absolutely must get that trade right. But why on earth, say, Buffalo wouldn’t take whatever the hell they could for their army of pending UFAs is totally beyond me. Maybe after Nashville gave up a first for Paul freaking Gaustad they started asking for too much. That’s like Ottawa getting a first round pick for Chris Neil.

Anyway, I mostly like that Ottawa didn’t do much, though again, without those delicious second round picks – the perfect trade deadline resource – what were they going to do anyway? Turris is Ottawa’s big mid-season acquisition, and it’s mostly worked out. Ben Bishop is here now too, so Ottawa got taller I guess.

So, Bryan Murray acquired behemoth goaltending prospect Ben Bishop from St. Louis for a 2013 second round pick. We don’t know much at this point, but we can probably read the following in the tea leaves:

1) That’s it for Alex Auld. Okay, maybe you didn’t need this move to know it, but I thought Auld didn’t get much of a fair shake this season. Ottawa preferred to play Anderson all the time: during both games in back-to-backs, after poor outings, against teams weak and strong. It’s tough to come into a game cold, and Auld never got on a roll. He has plenty of NHL experience. Given the chance, you’d think he might fill in suitably. Otherwise, why pay him a million bucks a year? Now, with Ben Bishop having arrived, and Robin Lehner going so far as to sabotage Craig Anderson’s frozen chicken so he can get his chance ; ), Auld is probably on his way to a ninth team in what will be 13 seasons. He’s still only 31; he’s cheap; he’ll find a home somewhere. Can Murray move him before tomorrow’s deadline? (Hint: no)

2) Ottawa don’t need no second round picks. This is just weird for a team that is supposedly rebuilding. Second round picks are the perfect trade resources – you’re not giving up a sure thing, but they have real value when you consider that the best way to build depth is with volume. I suppose Ottawa has only fastracked a prospect by taking a 25 year old, former 3rd rounder rather than wait the five years or so it takes a second round pick to pan out. But if you had told me that Bryan Murray would trade away both his 2012 and 2013 second rounders before the season was out-and both in deals for risky or unproven players, I would have said that that was unlikely, and taken your beer and poured it down the kitchen sink.

3) The team is not so sold on Robin Lehner. At least not yet. Sure, Bishop can play in Binghamton too, and they need the help, but considering he’s signing a one-way deal, we’re probably going to see an Anderson / Bishop tandem. Lehner is going to have to wait before he runs for mayor of Ottawa and crushes crime in his iron grip.

4) Tomorrow’s trade deadline will be boring for Ottawa fans. Given the complete lack of second rounders and management’s disinterest in trading prospects, Ottawa is pretty much set for the season. Maybe Murray trades a mid-round pick for some bottom-six depth. But it won’t be anywhere close to as interesting as when Alex Semin is traded to the Peoria Rivermen.

After Karlsson’s big four point Family Day game (for those outside of Ontario, we were bribed a couple of elections ago with the promise of an additional holiday in February, and we regret nothing) I turned to a friend of mine and asked, “So, do you think Karlsson is going to win the Norris this year?”

Having played his whole life, and with a brother who’s played in the AHL, ECHL, and elsewhere, this friend of mine is more literate in hockey than me. He’s able to read hockey in an intuitive way that I’ve never been able to muster. I’ll look at stats and profiles, trying to find some evidence of the fluid game I enjoy in the static numbers and standings; he simply looks at the gait or shot of a young player and has a more nuanced read of his potential.

He answered no immediately. “He doesn’t kill penalties.”

I’m open to the idea that Karlsson can’t win the Norris this season, but the difference between my friend and I is that I attribute that to some sort of institutional bias. Shea Weber should have won last year, but Lidstrom did, as if the gesture were required as the penultimate recognition of an all-time great before an impending retirement. (Meanwhile, Lidstrom looks like he can play for another couple of seasons…) The thinking seemed to go that Weber would have his day to win the Norris, and that when it happened—which is to say, this season—it would be seen as the passing of the torch from one great defenceman to the next.

And so I assumed that Weber would get his due, possibly at Karlsson’s expense, but that it wouldn’t be because of Karlsson. He leads defencemen in scoring by a country mile. He leads Shea Weber in CORSI. If it’s true that he has defensive liabilities as a result of his small frame, he far outweighs them (er…out-lights them?) with offensive contributions. He’s on the ice for more of his team’s goals than any other defenceman in the league.

But, as my friend pointed out again, “He doesn’t kill penalties. That might not be fair,” he said, “but that’s how the award gets voted. A defenceman who doesn’t kill penalties isn’t going to win the award for best defenceman.” I should point out that it’s true: Karlsson doesn’t really kill penalties. He’s on the ice for less than a minute of shorthanded time per game, one would assume right before the penalty is set to expire, while Weber leads the top penalty killing unit in Nashville with Ryan Suter. (Though, I suppose it’s worth mentioning, he’s not even in the top 30 in the league in shorthanded time on the ice, but that could have something to do with Nashville not getting as many penalties. Also worth mentioning is that with big Hal Gill traded to Nashville, Weber’s shorthanded time should take a dip. Gill is third in the league in shorthanded time on ice per 60 minutes. Final aside: Jared Cowen is 18^th. Not bad for a kid.)

What we have is a philosophical question, and one that could have huge ramifications for a team gearing up to negotiate Karlsson’s next contract: is it more valuable to have a very, very good all-around player, or a player who is better than any other in the league in a few particular things? Because Karlsson isn’t just having a good season: offensively he’s dominating the league, and in a way that, at least this season, is putting him on another plane. The answer to that question is the difference between five and seven million dollars per year.

The closest correlative is supposed to be Mike Green, a similarly offensively gifted player who is supposedly defensively stunted. In 2009-2010 he led defencemen in scoring with 76 points. But the point here isn’t that Karlsson will score close to the same number of points, it’s the distance by which he’s outpacing the competition. In 09/10, Duncan Keith was only seven points behind Green (although he played seven more games). In 2008-2009 Green led defencemen as well, with Andrei Markov nine points behind him with ten more games played. The gap was large, though not large enough to see Green lose to Norris.

This season Karlsson is a whopping 17 points ahead of his next closest competition, Brian Campbell, is +14 to Campbell’s -9, and he’s doing it on a team most picked to finish bottom five in the league. He’s the team’s MVP, perhaps even responsible for their current playoff spot. If there’s a case to be made—and I think there is—it’s not only that Karlsson excels at one aspect of his position to a degree that no other player seems capable of matching, it’s the distance he’s put between himself and the rest of the pack. That he doesn’t play on the penalty kill on a team with Jared Cowen, Chris Phillips, Filip Kuba, Matt Carkner, Brian Lee, and other defencemen who seem better suited to it, seems like a strange reason to disqualify Karlsson from Norris consideration.

But it still nags at me a little: those other defencemen are better suited, and this friend of mine, like I said, didn’t even hesitate to say Karlsson wouldn’t win it, and not only because it’s ‘not his turn’ but because he doesn’t deserve it. It seems like what we have is a recurring debate, one about the traditional conception of the responsibility and role of a defenceman versus the staggering reality of Karlsson’s incredible season. And so Ottawa is faced with their first big debate about the value of a defenceman since they got the Redden / Chara choice so, so wrong.

The Hockey Gods have finally thrown a bone to those few still looking forward to Trade Deadline 2012. Rather than watch seven straight hours of panel analysis on how Boston’s (or whoever’s) decision to acquire Bryan Allen for a second round pick was a strategic masterstroke, instead we get this: Rick Nash is on the block.

Now, I imagine every blog for every team will be writing their version of this post over the next couple of days, so let me start by saying that Ottawa’s chances of obtaining him are practically nil. He’s got a no-movement clause in his contract, so he can pick where he goes, and I’m not sure why he’d assent to move from one rebuilder (albeit a perpetual one) to another while in his prime, even if the latter rebuilder is playing better than expected.

As I see it, the three things that might work in Ottawa’s favor are:

1)      Nash’s experience playing with Jason Spezza in the World Championships. It seems like every year this happens, and the two tear it up (against terrible competition), and Ottawa Senators blogs write about what it would take to get Nash and how it will never happen, and Columbus blogs write about what it would take to get Spezza (and how it might actually happen). The point being that this elusive ‘elite center’ that Nash requires to reach his potential is not a turnkey solution, and Nash is a player Ottawa actually has game tape of playing with their guy. It’s less of a risk for Ottawa to gamble resources on obtaining him. Jeff Carter hasn’t looked comfortable playing with Nash, though to be fair he hasn’t looked comfortable in Columbus, period. Sticking Nash on a line with Brad Richards (he of $9MM a year and three more points than Nick Foligno) in New York is no guarantee. The other teams reported to be scouting him (seriously…scouting Rick Nash? What’s to scout?) are Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Detroit, and all but Dallas have truly elite centers to play with Nash. But again, you’re making a huge commitment in money and years in the hopes that chemistry is there. With Spezza you at least know that the two work together, which means maybe Murray is willing to outbid the opposition on this one.

Which brings me to…

2)      Ottawa has the cap space and the prospects. Most of the teams who are in the running have the pro rated room this season (if I’m understanding the deadline cap calculation process correctly), but would have to let substantial pieces walk in the offseason to fit Nash going forward. In the case of a team like New York, you’re mucking with a team at the top of the standings all season long by trading away at least one roster player to obtain Nash, and then allowing yet more to walk to maintain the cap space. Other teams might have to insist that Columbus take salary back in the deal. Ottawa, as of this writing, has a trillion dollars in cap space, doesn’t have to insist on a salary dump, and doesn’t have to give up a major piece going forward. Again, Murray can deal a great hand if he decides Nash needs to be in an Ottawa jersey.

3)      Nash apparently doesn’t want to go to a big market. I don’t know about this one, as it’s a bit nebulous – hey, who wouldn’t want to live in New York City? – but that’s the rumor. Would he want to go to New York or Toronto only to have the media shoot him in the kneecap the first game he goes without a point? Ottawa offers him another under-the-radar market, but in a hockey mad country, and in a city only marginally as cursed. Might be a nice middle ground.

Sooooooooo what would it take to get him? That Puck Daddy story says New York is rumored to give up Brandon Dubinsky, prospect Chris Kreider and a first round pick. Frankly, that doesn’t sound like much for an elite player. You’re talking a solid top six player who is good but you can’t likely build around, a good but not elite prospect (Kreider was drafted 19^th overall in 2009, and projects as a top six power forward) and a very late 1^st rounder.

Ottawa doesn’t really have a roster player of Dubinsky’s quality and tradeability (that’s not a word) that they’d want to part with (Karlsson is untouchable, and what’s the point of giving up Spezza if the whole point is to pair the two?), but might beat that package with one of their own late 2011 first rounders (Puempel, Noesen), one of their surprising later rounders like Mark Stone (who might be a the height of his trade value now after the World Juniors, and if you believe, as I do, that he’ll have trouble transitioning his game to the NHL), and their 2012 first round pick, which projects as top 15. If not that, perhaps a package with Jared Cowen or Mika Zibanejad as its cornerstone could get it done. Stephan DaCosta is still alive, this Binghamton newspaper I’m reading says.

I return again to the notion that Ottawa pulled the trigger on that Rundblad trade way too early. Turris is paying off for Ottawa right now, but knowing that a rare player like Nash might be available, and that Rundblad would surely have been a key bargaining chip, I wonder if the best we could get for the best offensive-defenseman prospect in the game and a second rounder was a potential bust who, thank god, is working out for now. Knowing that we have a CBA negotiation coming up, there may be even more teams who find themselves in impossible situations come 2013 and so have to offload salary in a hurry, and Ottawa was primed as a team with cap space and prospects to take advantage of those situations. It will be harder to do that now, as our remaining prospects are not as redundant as Rundblad was.

If I had to wager a guess, I say Nash goes to New York, if only because that’s the way it always works with that market. (Brad Richard, Marian Gaborick and Rick Nash all playing on the same team? How could it be anywhere other than New York? Then they’ll sign Semin next year, just you watch.) Or possibly Toronto, since Brian Burke is long overdue for his mid-season overhaul and it’s been talked about for about 17 years.

Editor’s correction: Gaborick is actually spelled Gaborik. I must have been thinking of his brother, Rick Gaborick.

It’s no longer a given that Ottawa is a buyer at this year’s deadline. In the last two weeks they’ve gone from a 90% chance at the playoffs to around 40%, according to Sportsclubstats. But let’s forget about how used we’ve become to the idea of Ottawa in the playoffs. Head back to the beginning of the season, when everyone was predicting Ottawa to be somewhere between dead last in the NHL and dead last in the OHL. If back then you were told you could have a 40% chance at the playoffs in February, do you think you would have taken it? I sure would have.

So now, on to righting the ship. A few caveats: 1) I don’t necessarily think that Ottawa should be a buyer. I’m not one for watching my team get destroyed in the first round. But I’m going to assume that management has been convinced that playoffs are obtainable, and that if they can find help for the right price, they’ll go for it. 2) The 2^nd round pick is the perfect trade deadline currency. It’s just late enough in the draft not to sting a team who wants to gamble on a pending UFA, and just close enough to offer tantalizing promise to a seller. The point here being that Ottawa obviously doesn’t have its 2^nd rounder anymore, having packaged it with one of the best offensive-defenseman prospects in the entire league to take a risk on a borderline bust who, thank Christ, seems to be working out pretty well.

It seems like if Ottawa were to obtain anything at the deadline, it will be a forward. Murray’s said as much, and they’re heavily linked to Tuomo Ruutu by newspapers who have promised 36 straight hours of coverage of the deadline even though there aren’t really any big names on the market. (Aside: remember when Sportsnet had Eklund that one deadline?) I’ve declared my favor for the notion of throwing everything we’ve got at obtaining Zach Parise, but I know that’s not going to happen, especially with the Devils in a playoff position.

But more importantly, I think Ottawa’s offense – or recent lack thereof – can be linked to their porous defense and shoddy goaltending. We’ve seen it before: the early or untimely goal that deflates the team; the aging defenceman who turns in a pylon-esque performance; the inability to run a rudimentary breakout play. Ottawa has shown that it has the guns to score in this league. Perhaps the problem stems from the backend having gone hollow. Sure, we have our glut of mediocrity back there now, and not a lot of room, but with Brian Lee and Matt Carkner making peanuts the team can afford to sit them, or package them along with a pick as a mini-salary dump.

Puck Daddy published its list of seven defensemen who could make an impact, and there are some intriguing names there – especially because Ottawa has its share of puck movers and not nearly enough shut down / shot blockers, which seems to be most of what’s available.

Most obvious to me is the familiar Andy Sutton. I’m on record (looks around, notes that no one is actually producing a record of everything I say) saying that I think he should have been re-signed by Ottawa. After an underwhelming and injury-plagued performance in Anaheim, he’s reclaimed his game a bit in Edmonton. He was obtained two seasons ago for a 2^nd rounder; could he be had this season for a 3^rd?

Hall Gill is a workhorse, if a one-dimensional player, and is the perennial deadline acquisition for some team meaning to employ the “if I stuck a sumo wrestler in front of the net, would it work?” strategy. Obviously he skates like two traffic signs taped together, and with limited resources on the market some fool team might make this into a bidding war, but Ottawa should keep its head in the room. He’s not a glamorous player, but he’s played some solid playoff hockey.

Pavel Kubina might be one of the most experienced and versatile defenders available, and given his larger cap hit and Ottawa’s excess cap space (even with pro rating giving everyone a jillion dollars in space), they might take advantage of wary shoppers and get him for less than usual. I’m skeptical, as Kubina looked terrible in Toronto and less than impressive in Tampa, but as a complimentary player rather than a core defensive pairing, I could see this paying off. Would tampa take a flyer on Brian Lee and a pick to get Kubina’s remaining million or so off the books, or would it take a late 1st rounder?

Finally, Ottawa could shoot for the moon and try to obtain one (or both!) of Ryan Suter or Shea Weber. I imagine they would have to part with pretty much everyone on their roster and all of their picks from now until the end of time, and probably Scotiabank Place, but it’s still pretty cool to imagine.

Who would you rather have at the deadline?

A quick glance around the Sensosphere ™ this morning and it seems like we’ve settled on the notion that Ottawa’s baffling slide is due to a sudden lack of motivation. It’s as if the whole team suddenly came down with chronic vitamin D deficiency, which, being from Ottawa and it being February, I wouldn’t be surprised by. (I’m suddenly listening to nothing by Husker Du and drinking 19 beers after work every night.) But then again, I’m skeptical.

Ottawa threw 49 shots at James Reimer on Saturday night, and while not all of them were quality chances, I can’t see any discernable difference between the effort level of these Ottawa Senators and the ones who were winning games they had no business winning just a few weeks ago. While the early season successes had a lot to do with everything going right at the same time, now the inverse is true.

1) The goaltending is still mostly bad

Even with Anderson playing the hero in December and stealing a few wins for the team, they’ve now allowed the first goal in a staggering 287 straight games (might be off by a few games, but it’s close). Combined with the goal from center-ice against Boston, the goals at inopportune times, and the seemingly thousands of close calls, this is all eerily familiar: the team is as deflated as they were by Brian Elliott’s unreliable goaltending last season. The tragic part is that at least Elliott was making peanuts and wasn’t signed for four years…I’m not ready to throw Anderson under the bus yet, but there’s no denying that something’s broken right now. Would it really be all that bad to give Auld, who hasn’t played since 1981, a game or two?

2) Players once overachieving have turned into ghosts

Zack Smith was once on pace for 20 goals – fantastic for a third line center. Nick Foligno was having a resurgent year, and looking like a 50 point player. Milan Michalek was leading the league in scoring (for a few days). Jared Cowen was playing 30 minutes a night and looking good doing it. Sergei Gonchar was looking like he was close to a 50 point defenseman. Greening and Condra were scoring big goals at the right times. Karlsson, Spezza and Alfie were dominant at times. Even Butler was scoring the odd game winner. It’s not so much that all of these players have gone cold; perhaps it’s that we became too used to this overachieving. Except for Michalek. That dude cannot be this bad all of a sudden – one point in his last five games!

3) Other teams have stopped taking the team lightly

How many backups did this team used to see? How many times would a dominant team come out and muster 19 shots against Ottawa, only to realize too late that they were letting the game get out of hand? When you’re 6th in the conference (or once were), they stop with the gimmes. Ottawa is seeing the best other teams have to offer, and to put it plainly, they’re not good enough to compete. Now that the playing field is level, you’re not getting anywhere if you’re not going to at least win games against the Islanders and Leafs in your own barn.

4) The team’s ‘work for it’ system is the same system everyone else uses, except most of them have about $18MM more in salary on their roster

I wrote about this a long time ago, but I remember reading an ‘anonymous GM’ quote about how hard Ottawa planned on riding these kids, and how it would be difficult for them to keep it up late in the season. I think we’re seeing this become prophetic – you can’t outwork the other team unless you’re being underestimated or your team finds another level. It’s not reasonable to assume another level every game, so it comes down to skill and a better system. At this point in the season, it’s looking more and more like a simple trap in the neutral zone is enough to produce turnovers. Passes aren’t making it through. Ottawa’s defence is slow. It’s not that they aren’t working hard; hard work isn’t enough in the best league in the world. MacLean needs to respond by out coaching the opposition rather than going back to what worked when legs were fresh.

5) Ottawa’s powerplay is awful

Not sure what else needs to be said here. It used to be top five – yet another reason why Ottawa was winning games where they were also allowing four or five goals. Now it’s down to 18th. (Its PK is even worse at 22nd.)

–

It’s not all doom and gloom – Ottawa could turn this around. Even playing .500 hockey from  here on out puts them in a playoff position. But in the last two weeks they’ve stumbled from a 90% chance at the playoffs to 50%. We’re down to 27 games and a coin toss. And for all the quotes from Murray that this team isn’t going to fall off because they just work too hard, it’s discouraging to think management became as ensorcelled by the early season run as the rest of us. With the team primed to take a run at Tuomo Ruutu (goodbye first round pick), and their best prospect out the door already, I don’t know that they haven’t pushed all their chips forward this season.

I’ve probably got a much longer post in me somewhere about how Ottawa is squandering a once in a decade chance to rebuild properly, and how we’re destined for ten year’s worth of bubble team hockey as a result, but for now I’ll just say that what we’re seeing now is likely closer to what a team of eager young players is capable of producing. Hopefully this is just a late-season sag, and they’ll go back on upswing just in time to really push back in the first round of the playoffs. But in the meantime, saying that they just aren’t trying seems like a bit of a cop out.