A quick glance around the Sensosphere ™ this morning and it seems like we’ve settled on the notion that Ottawa’s baffling slide is due to a sudden lack of motivation. It’s as if the whole team suddenly came down with chronic vitamin D deficiency, which, being from Ottawa and it being February, I wouldn’t be surprised by. (I’m suddenly listening to nothing by Husker Du and drinking 19 beers after work every night.) But then again, I’m skeptical.

Ottawa threw 49 shots at James Reimer on Saturday night, and while not all of them were quality chances, I can’t see any discernable difference between the effort level of these Ottawa Senators and the ones who were winning games they had no business winning just a few weeks ago. While the early season successes had a lot to do with everything going right at the same time, now the inverse is true.

1) The goaltending is still mostly bad

Even with Anderson playing the hero in December and stealing a few wins for the team, they’ve now allowed the first goal in a staggering 287 straight games (might be off by a few games, but it’s close). Combined with the goal from center-ice against Boston, the goals at inopportune times, and the seemingly thousands of close calls, this is all eerily familiar: the team is as deflated as they were by Brian Elliott’s unreliable goaltending last season. The tragic part is that at least Elliott was making peanuts and wasn’t signed for four years…I’m not ready to throw Anderson under the bus yet, but there’s no denying that something’s broken right now. Would it really be all that bad to give Auld, who hasn’t played since 1981, a game or two?

2) Players once overachieving have turned into ghosts

Zack Smith was once on pace for 20 goals – fantastic for a third line center. Nick Foligno was having a resurgent year, and looking like a 50 point player. Milan Michalek was leading the league in scoring (for a few days). Jared Cowen was playing 30 minutes a night and looking good doing it. Sergei Gonchar was looking like he was close to a 50 point defenseman. Greening and Condra were scoring big goals at the right times. Karlsson, Spezza and Alfie were dominant at times. Even Butler was scoring the odd game winner. It’s not so much that all of these players have gone cold; perhaps it’s that we became too used to this overachieving. Except for Michalek. That dude cannot be this bad all of a sudden – one point in his last five games!

3) Other teams have stopped taking the team lightly

How many backups did this team used to see? How many times would a dominant team come out and muster 19 shots against Ottawa, only to realize too late that they were letting the game get out of hand? When you’re 6th in the conference (or once were), they stop with the gimmes. Ottawa is seeing the best other teams have to offer, and to put it plainly, they’re not good enough to compete. Now that the playing field is level, you’re not getting anywhere if you’re not going to at least win games against the Islanders and Leafs in your own barn.

4) The team’s ‘work for it’ system is the same system everyone else uses, except most of them have about $18MM more in salary on their roster

I wrote about this a long time ago, but I remember reading an ‘anonymous GM’ quote about how hard Ottawa planned on riding these kids, and how it would be difficult for them to keep it up late in the season. I think we’re seeing this become prophetic – you can’t outwork the other team unless you’re being underestimated or your team finds another level. It’s not reasonable to assume another level every game, so it comes down to skill and a better system. At this point in the season, it’s looking more and more like a simple trap in the neutral zone is enough to produce turnovers. Passes aren’t making it through. Ottawa’s defence is slow. It’s not that they aren’t working hard; hard work isn’t enough in the best league in the world. MacLean needs to respond by out coaching the opposition rather than going back to what worked when legs were fresh.

5) Ottawa’s powerplay is awful

Not sure what else needs to be said here. It used to be top five – yet another reason why Ottawa was winning games where they were also allowing four or five goals. Now it’s down to 18th. (Its PK is even worse at 22nd.)

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It’s not all doom and gloom – Ottawa could turn this around. Even playing .500 hockey from  here on out puts them in a playoff position. But in the last two weeks they’ve stumbled from a 90% chance at the playoffs to 50%. We’re down to 27 games and a coin toss. And for all the quotes from Murray that this team isn’t going to fall off because they just work too hard, it’s discouraging to think management became as ensorcelled by the early season run as the rest of us. With the team primed to take a run at Tuomo Ruutu (goodbye first round pick), and their best prospect out the door already, I don’t know that they haven’t pushed all their chips forward this season.

I’ve probably got a much longer post in me somewhere about how Ottawa is squandering a once in a decade chance to rebuild properly, and how we’re destined for ten year’s worth of bubble team hockey as a result, but for now I’ll just say that what we’re seeing now is likely closer to what a team of eager young players is capable of producing. Hopefully this is just a late-season sag, and they’ll go back on upswing just in time to really push back in the first round of the playoffs. But in the meantime, saying that they just aren’t trying seems like a bit of a cop out.

“LEAFS SUCK”: while at a game where the Leafs are not playing.

Yes, they do. This is a matter of statistical fact; you only need to look at the standings to know this. But pointing this out during a game when they’re not even around is like being that guy who wears a Leafs jersey to a Sens game where the Leafs aren’t playing. It’s only telegraphing your insecurities to the world. (For Sens fans: that they can’t beat the Leafs in the playoffs; for Leafs fans: that their fathers hate them.)

“HEATLEY SUCKS:” When playing whoever Heatley’s recently been traded to this time.

Sure, he’s not that great for a player making eight million dollars this year. But where telling him he sucks might run counter to the whole idea of his general history of excellence, and thus be an expression of just how much we hate him because HE WRONGED US (or whatever), he also legitimately sucks now. I can just imagine any non-Sens fan watching on TV being like, “Well, yeah. You gave him that contract.” Makes us look like the bitter dump-ee.

“SHOOT:” At any time of the game.

Because the worst thing a team can do is listen to the advice of thousands and thousands of people who have never really given a serious thought to dedicating some time to an endeavour, let alone the kind of time required to understand something at a professional level. This is especially true in Ottawa, where 85% of those in attendance work a government job where they can’t really describe their responsibilities. Shouting “SHOOT” is like standing over a civil servant’s shoulder and yelling “WORK.” It doesn’t mean anything.

“DO SOMETHING.” The ultimate indication that you don’t really like hockey that much.

I don’t know what to say. That you exemplify all that our disgusting commercial lifestyle encourages? That instant satisfaction is not something you will encounter when watching a three hour sporting event where the score is often 2-1 or 3-2? That these guys are constantly “doing something” and that perhaps learning to appreciate those things that are not scoring is sometimes also pretty cool? Would you stand in a restaurant and yell “HUNGRY” over and over again until the situation remedies itself?

And lo, did the Ottawa Senators begin a casual dominance hastened to an end by the hated Winnibargian Jethisens

 Varada

You might have heard that Ottawa is rebuilding. Well, sorry, but you’re wrong. They’re sitting 5th in the conference, their playoff probability is up in the high-80s these days, and Murray is saying things about adding at the deadline. I’m not really a fan of your 2nd-round-pick-for-Andy-Sutton sorta deals (though I don’t hate them either). Especially because we don’t have a 2nd round pick anymore (THANKS A LOT, KYLE) and Kuba’s not going anywhere. What I would love is for Murray to add someone at the deadline that will make an impact, but that the team also has a realistic chance of re-signing long-term.

I don’t know about those chances, by my dream acquisition begins and ends with Zach Parise. With Alfredsson set to retire either this year or next, the team is going to need a winger with a scoring touch who is known for solid leadership and responsible two-way hockey. Wishful thinking, I know: Parise is the best pending UFA on the market, which means he’s bound for Toronto, New York, or Philadelphia. (And some other, previously-coveted UFA is bound for the Swiss League or the minors to make room. Salary cap schmalery schmap.)

According to this totally authoritative piece (Sun Media, you say? Who is this enterprising Bruce Garrioch fellow?) it would take a “young player, a prospect, and a 1st round pick” to get him. The latter two of those Ottawa has. The first I can’t imagine them parting with, unless you consider Nick Foligno sufficient trade bait. (He’s not.) Would you be willing to trade, say, Mika Zibanejad (especially now that we’ve got this other 2nd line center guy)? How about a Jared Cowen?

Any other UFAs on this list that tickle your belly? There ain’t much. Ales Hemsky? Shane Doan? Alex Semin? Tuomo Ruutu? We could probably get Brad Boyes for about $50. It says here we could trade for Filip Kuba.
Anyway – I would go all out to get Zach Parise, and then throw everything at him to sign long-term. What say you?

James

I would not could not on a train, I would not could not listening to Nirvana’s “On A Plain” (now available on iTunes)!

Before I get into it, it was too bad both Cullen and Sutton couldn’t be kept around, I liked those guys during their short stints. They were good acquisitions at the time but in the long run I guess it kind of worked out because of their respective ages and the current team model dont really mesh. I liked them for the Sens then, but the now Sens dont really need them.

All that said, “I’m well over it, mate” – British People. I don’t really disagree with your idea of “if we’re going to get someone let’s get someone next level.” To me clearly this is not a team that is in all that big a need to acquire a gritty two way forward who can stop em, drop em or shut em down open up shop em (Zack Smith) or an aging but still effective power play specialist (Sergei Gonchar) or blah di blah. The team currently has a lot of the kind of guys Murray would try to pick up in the past. Mayyyybe we see Kuba go b/c of his expiring contract (gotta get that second back) and Phillips aint goin nowhere even if he could because I cant see the Sens moving him after 1000 games with the organization. The optics of that would be really bad. Who are we Montreal? (I kid, all teams GMs have the capacity for that kind of crap).

Back to the essence, no, I would not pay a Mika Zibanejad, Jared Cowen (that guy would be the DUMBEST to give up. Its’ not like there’s other 20 year old Dmen laying around, ready to step in a play 25 mins a night! Stand PAT BryMurr, you won that hand already)…I don’t even think I would pay a Nick Foligno, a first round pick that’s playing great right now. I wouldn’t want to part with the any of the first round picks acquired just a few months ago. So what I’m saying is I basically hope they don’t swap anybody right now.

Since when is this such a “thing” too? Just b/c your team makes the playoffs you gotta go get some other guy? I know, I know…it’s about giving your team the best chance and stuff but I think IT IS STILL A REBUILD (to me at least). I would love for Turris to be the big move of the year. I think he’s a top six acquisition that has made the team better. Mission: So Far So Goodomplished. It worked out great, quit while you’re ahead Murray! I want him to hold a press conference at 6am on trade deadline day and with his best J. Jonah Jamieson voice be all “IM NOT CHANGIN A GAAAAD DAAAMN THING. ANYONE WHO WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL CALL ME!” and then slap on of those 1-800-EAT-SHIT bumper stickers on his forehead, pose for pictures for like 5 seconds and then drop the mic and leave.

Am I going to get that? Probably not. As such I am actually hoping for a Jesse Winchester/Brian Lee for a different KIND of Jesse Wincheser/Brian Lee type deals that we’ll forget about in two seasons. Actually, I would probably like to see a deal for a different backup goalie seeing as Anderson is playing literally every single game right now. That’s the one thing that hasn’t clicked for the Sens this year, otherwise there is some crazy good chemistry I wouldn’t mess with.  Remember when George W. Bush stayed the course and everything worked out amazing? I want that too.

The main thing that gets my mind grapes going about a big fish type acquisition/signing is that our 3rd highest scorer is THIRTY NINE and if he needs to be replaced or given a bit of a lesser role for the next 10 years that he is going to play, that’s gotta get done at some point. I think we’re finally at a stage where the prospects are plentiful, role players are working out and bigger stars are producing. I’d like to see if we have a Zack Parise in the system. It’s not outlandish to think that. We took three players in the first round and with Zibanejad playing the wing more and Silfverberg coming over, I think that sticking with them is a safer bet than giving up everything on the first date for a guy who could jump ship come summer.

Notice how I didn’t even get into Hemsky (blech, injury prone and can’t hang in Edmonton at this point?), Doan (I want the Sens to stay getting young not older), Alex Semin (I cant think of a good Kovalev joke right now but you could imagine if I could!), the OTHER Ruutu (mmmm, maybe I’d be down for this dude if the price was kind of low. Maybe Carolina would take Kuba for him…you KNOW they miss Kaberle).

No, I don’t know what this is either.

–

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Senators spend the first two periods being outshot, parading to the penalty box, and generally having no chance at the game, only to suddenly turn it on in the last period and pull out a win. That’s not surprising anymore. What’s surprising is that one key veteran is becoming less and less a part of the Senators’ surprising season.

While Jason Spezza, Sergei Gonchar, and Daniel Alfredsson are all enjoying bounceback seasons (Alfie even having reinvented himself as the clutch goal scorer rather than the two-way, do-everything, 30-minute-a-night guy), there is a conspicuous absence on the back-end. Chris Phillips, now relegated to the 3rd pairing with either Brian Lee or Matt Carkner, played between 15 and about 18 minutes a night in his last five games compared to rookie Jared Cowen’s 22 to 25. Even in this last game against Montreal, when Cowen was far from perfect, had trouble controlling the puck, and the team was giving up far too many chances, MacLean went to Cowen over Phillips again and again as his shut-down D.

Not a terrible situation: having a veteran player match up against lesser competition means, theoretically, that this team is deep. (Though the chances this team gives up and that Anderson has had to stand on his head most nights suggest otherwise.) Phillips isn’t hurting the club this season, but his diminishing role has consequences for the future of the team.

Filip Kuba has played himself into a new contract. It’s far from unanimous – I’m sure a few readers here will protest – but it surely wouldn’t be a surprise if Murray renews a defenceman now playing top pairing minutes and providing a steady partner to franchise defenseman Erik Karlsson. Gonchar still isn’t going anywhere with that contract, even with his improved play. There are players in Binghamton who deserve their shot, and who won’t cost this team $3MM a year to play on the 3rd pairing. There are also UFA options, and the team has boatloads of caproom.

I wasn’t a fan of the Phillips extension when it happened, but now it’s proving an awkward impediment to the development of young players and the rebuild in general. Lee and Carkner might also be cut lose to make room for young guys, but again: they’re making a third of Phillips’ salary.

Defensive depth has enormous value in this league, and having a player with Phillips’ history out there, even at half what he played last season, surely has some value. But with the emphasis now shifting towards paying our premier players big 2nd contracts and developing our young talent, it’s hard to imagine what the expensive, shut down defenseman who isn’t used to shut down anyone might bring outside the dressing room.

I admit, not only did I think that January would be a make-or-break month for the Senators, I thought it would break them. They’re a decent home team, but on the road they’ve been pretty mediocre; their string of miraculous, third-period comebacks couldn’t last; Anderson’s had a lot of puck luck; they’ve been seeing a lot of backup goaltenders; and they were set to play the class of the East with two games against the deep and tenacious Flyers, the well-coached Penguins, and the Beastor Rangers.

But with seven out of a possible eight points through four games, and wins over the Devils and Lightning to start the month, Ottawa has points in 12 out of their last 13 games. Incredible.

It’s not over. There’s a West coast road trip coming up, and it ends with a game against the pretty much invincible Boston Bruins. But even if they only win a couple of their upcoming games, they’ve kept themselves afloat in January. That’s huge.

How huge? In my mind, tonight’s shutout of the Rangers was the point at which I stopped believing that this was a non-playoff team enjoying some early season success. I now think we’ll be watching Senators playoff hockey this April. They’re not pretenders. MacLean’s system is real, the talent is there, and what shortcomings exist are covered (at least lately) by luck and work habit.

Craig Anderson is .951 in his last five games. Spezza has six points and an unreal face-off win percentage in the same span. Karlsson is still wizardly. Michalek has recovered well from a concussion and has four goals in his last four. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised; we said way back during our season preview that there was no way every single player would have yet another career-worst season.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but…well, fuck the rebuild I guess. On to the hapless Habs!

(Having said that, all of the reports that Murray is a buyer at the deadline, and the brainless Sun editorials calling for trades of Noesen and Puempel for whoever, have got me freaked.  How short a memory this group seems to have. I have no doubt that the thought of at least a round’s worth of playoff revenue has got management thinking late-first-rounder-schmate-schmirst-schmounder.)

Look, I like what I’ve seen of Kyle Turris. He has a great attitude, he looks like an amazing skater, and his shot is deadly. He hasn’t looked out of place and he isn’t even fully adjusted to Ottawa’s system yet. But as I mentioned in my diplomatically titled reaction to the trade: it’s not about Turris, a player with boatloads of potential. It’s about what might have been received in exchange for David Rundblad.

Rundblad was Ottawa’s key trading chip. A top flight prospect, highly considered by every analyst who’s bothered to make their thoughts on him public, who plays in the model of Erik Karlsson, who is currently thriving in Paul McLean’s system. Ottawa needed a second line center, there’s no doubt about that, and Bryan Murray cashed in his one golden chip. And now, two articles in one day on Puck Daddy: Anaheim is open for business, and Rick Nash would waive his no trade.

Now, I’m not saying that Ottawa should pursue point-per-game Ryan Getzlaf, 25 year old three-time 30+ goal scoring Bobby Ryan, reigning Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry, or RICK FRIGGING NASH…wait, why wouldn’t we pursue those types of players? MVPs, scoring leaders, team captains, Olympians…in the case of the Anaheim players, each making reasonable salaries. Not to get all hysterical, but we’re talking about some of the best players in the league being available in an era when superstars rarely make it to UFA market, and when your team rarely has the cap space to acquire them. The only other way you get players like this is if you draft and spend years developing them.

If they go on the block, even with Rundblad Ottawa might not have enough to trade, as each will command staggering returns. But the one thing I’m positive about is that without Rundblad, Ottawa is out of any race that develops, and for good.

Look down Ottawa’s lineup, and what do they have to offer in exchange for high end players? Karlsson is untouchable at this point. Spezza is looking great, but it would be one step forward one step back to trade a top line center, even for another top line center. Michalek is playing well, and is a top six player, but might not qualify as the centerpiece of a trade package as his comfort zone is probably as a 20-25 goal scorer. Gonchar and Kuba were both written off at the beginning of the season as deadline dumps. Cowen figures huge in the franchise’s future. There are plenty of promising prospects in the system, but it would hurt too much to lose the most valuable of those, like Zibanejad. The Puempels and Noesens of the world are lottery tickets at this point. And then you’ve got the team’s 1^st round pick, which could end up anywhere between top five and bottom ten at this point.

Oh, and I guess this team could trade Turris. Apparently he can get you a player as good as David Rundblad and a 2^nd round pick.

My point being that trading any of the team’s best prospects or core players for a superstar leaves an equally big hole in the lineup down the road. Rundblad was expendable and valuable. He might have been the starting point of any trade discussion. Now, if this team is a part of trade speculation, it will be considering far more painful amputations to get it done.

I know I’m in fantasy land here, but who would you prefer as a seconde line center: Kyle Turris or Ryan Getzlaf?

Interesting post by Tyler Dellow in which he speaks about the disproportionate percentage of league revenue that comes from Canadian hockey teams. This in itself is nothing new, though it contrasts rather inconveniently with local writers and business interests who paint a picture of Canadian clubs on the edge of profitability in order to ensure 1) monopolies in their markets, and 2) some degree of fear-driven support from fans.

Melnyk’s resorted to as much, playing up how much money the team has lost in recent years and making repeated reference to a break-even point of the second round of the playoffs. In the spreadsheet Dellow links to you’ll see that Ottawa actually does fall around the middle of the pack in per game ticket revenue in 2010-2011, during which they made $45.10MM. This is just over $1MM in revenue per home game, or roughly half what Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver make. Last season Ottawa spent to the cap and had a horrible year, so you can see why Melnyk feels justified in making his annual entreaty to fans, strategically just days before tickets go on sale, to support the team. On a superficial level–you buy tickets to see the team, and they spent more on salary and operating expenses than they made on tickets–the team did lose money.

But this doesn’t tell the whole story. The spreadsheet doesn’t contain revenue from television sales, merchandising, from other events at ScotiaBank Place from which Melnyk derives pure profit (assuming fixed costs are paid out of hockey revenues), or revenues shared by all teams from the sales of NHL memorabilia. That remains under wraps. This spreadsheet–leaked to Toronto Star, as it is every year–is unhelpful because it enables those with an interest in the status quo to make the case that NHL clubs lose money on a strictly ticket-for-services basis. It also allows the owners to plead poverty in the upcoming CBA negotiations, despite Bettman’s perpetual reports of rising profits. The in-out dynamic of most profit calculation is politically motiviated, and ignores many of the residual profits associated with team ownership.

But the spreadsheet does allow us to speculate about this year’s profitability. The team is spending roughly $14MM less on salary this year than last, and is vastly more competitive. The 20th Anniversary Season and All Star Game (which you can only attend by buying ticket packages) are also pushing the brand, and revenues. Revenue per ticket may not be up, but attendance is. (Ottawa is seventh in league attendance this season, up from 11th last season.) Television revenue, heritage jersey sales, and more may contribute to a larger take. Ottawa is going to have a big, though not huge, year.

I’m not trying to portray Melnyk negatively here. He spends to the cap on salaries when appropriate, and wants to bring a Cup to Ottawa. Sometimes he seems like the most delusional Sens homer of all. He just spent $5MM on a new scoreboard, albeit one he had little choice in acquiring as the new one was literally only quasi-operational. And the team continues to include a number of money saving ticket deals for fans, from throwing in two tickets with the purchase of a jersey, to food voucher specials, to family packs of tickets for a hundred bucks. I appreciate these things, knowing they would never, ever happen in a market like Toronto. It’s just as important to consider these things part of the big picture as it is to remember that billionaire franchise owners aren’t prone to running money losing ventures.