LOL

Varada

I don’t think we’ve really weighed in on the whole Rick Nash to Ottawa thing here. I mean, we have in an off-beat “oh yeah and that’s also happening” kind of way, but we’ve never really dedicated a post to it. Part of it is that the 6^th Sens guys have been pretty serious about covering every aspect of the potential trade (and then adding “please don’t” at the end of every post). The other is that Scott Howson’s asking price was so high that it was hard to imagine the rumored prospects-and-picks-and-Nick Foligno package actually getting it done.

But of course there’s going to be an element of regret the day after Nash is finally traded to the Rangers, especially seeing how relatively little Sather had to give up. Dubinsky is a quality, two-way top-six player, but as the cornerstone of a trade package he’s lacking. He’s a 50 point player who put up 34 points last year. Artem Anisimov is skilled and improving, but is a one-dimensional goal scorer, sort of like the Kristian Huselius that Columbus just got rid of. Tim Erixon is a quality prospect, though one that New York didn’t have to give up very much to obtain (two 2^nd rounders and a shitty prospect, as Erixon was refusing to sign with Calgary, who drafted him 23^rd overall back in 2009). Finally, they gave up what’s going to be a late 1^st round pick.

So, three nice guys and a lottery ticket for a franchise players and captain who will pay his own salary in jersey sales. And Columbus had to send back a 3^rd round pick and a prospect, albeit a minor leaguer, to make it happen. It’s sort of incredible.

Also incredible that Howson managed to get that package without any of New York’s truly high end prospects or up-and-comers. You’d think he would almost prefer a one-for-one, Nash-for-Stepan-or-Kreider-or-Del Zotto trade, if only for the cost savings. Instead he adds depth to a lineup that’s all depth at this point. This brings us back to Ottawa’s rumored package for Nash, and the pervasive feeling among the blogging community that Nash isn’t worth it.

Let’s look at the criticisms of Nash. I don’t dispute any of them, though I wonder if they matter.

He’s past his prime: Yup. Completely. You’ll start to see a steady decline in his numbers, and by the end of the remaining six years you’ll be lucky to have a top six forward. But this production is only disappointing relative to that of the package going back and the salary cost. Let’s say the package going back would be Foligno, Lehner, Zibanejad and a 1^st round pick. Two prospects, a borderline top six player, and a pick which, granted, could land just about anywhere. That package could certainly outproduce a declining Nash, but if you’re a GM and you have to plan around your team’s projected performance, you can’t pencil in anything around prospects. There’s too much variability. I like Zibanejad a lot, but MacLean’s already calling him out at prospect development camp, he’s got concussions, he underproduced in the SEL last season, and Ottawa is already including him in trade packages. I’m not putting my chips on Mika just yet. Lehner has looked great at times, but he’s a goalie. How on earth you predict their performance is a mystery to me. Foligno is entering his prime, but is a 50 point player in the Dubinsky mould. You’re giving Columbus some choice lottery tickets there, but what you’re getting back in certainty, even if it’s certainty around declining performance, is something you can plan around. And in the short term, you basically get another Milan Michalek to play on the other side of Spezza.

Which brings us to…

He costs too much: Again, yup. His performance will probably not be worth $7.8MM a year. My question is: when would this possibly matter except in a scenario in which Ottawa is spending to the cap? At this point, Ottawa is struggling just to get to the cap floor. If Melnyk doesn’t get his money’s worth from Nash, why would I care? There are bargains up and down the lineup. An expensive and aging power forward being paid, what, about $1.8MM too much? I’m not going to lose sleep over that. It’s not like having Nash is preventing us from being in on some other high end free agent, or from re-signing a quality player. Having Nash is not paying Kovalev $5MM per. Not only that, but if there’s a salary rollback in the new CBA, Nash’s salary could perfectly align with his production, at least for the next two to three seasons.

Complaining that Nash costs too much on a non-cap team is like complaining that there was a cheaper scoreboard out there or that the team is paying too much to re-pave the parking lot.

He’s never done anything in the playoffs: Eh, neither has half our team. If Alfie retires, I think the Senators’ average age dips down to about 14.

I don’t think Nash is a sure thing—despite his performance on the international stage, chemistry with Spezza, and ability to produce on a team that has consistently been one of the worst in the league every year of its existence—and all of the criticisms of him as a player and his contract are perfectly valid and uncontested here. But what the New York Rangers gave up to slot Rick Nash alongside a premier playmaking center—hey, we’ve got one of those!—should have at least a few fans wishing Nash had considered putting Ottawa on his list.

As for Columbus…well, I do a lot of jumping up and down on Columbus on this blog, and it’s not likely to stop. But look at this lineup. It is hockey we’re talking about here, so I won’t be surprised if the team goes on some unlikely run and outperforms expectations, but which team is going to be intimidated by group of players?

Poor Nick Foligno.

James

Scotty, Scotty, Scotty…how did this happen? I’m trying to figure this out. It’s really hard to make sense of how Howson went from big timing offers at the deadline from what I would imagine to be all of the teams on Nash’s list (which I can only believe are all good teams gearing up for a playoff run and as such all have good players to trade) and then some (non-list teams like Ottawa and Toronto) and ended up trading for what’s essentially Nick Foligno, Zack Smith plus 10 points and minus all toughness, Patrick Weircioch and what could end up being 30^th overall pick (STILL A FINE PICK BUT NOT IN EXCHANGE FOR RICK NA$H!). My best guess is that Howson played chicken with Nash’s list thinking it was going to expand if he waited long enough and he lost. Perhaps widespread interest dried up and Nash’s list remained intact. Again, that list being presumably full of good teams that may not necessarily have been particularly “desperate” to obtain a Rick Nash as they are already good teams and trade options got a bit thin. I could be (likely totally am) wrong about how this whole thing went down. It’s just a guess. One thing I do know is that these blockbuster trades pretty much always end up looking disappointing, especially when an NTC is involved. I survived Cheechoo for Heatley 2009! For Columbus’ fans sake I hope they do too. The Blue Jackets now have three 1^st round picks (same amount Murray DIDN’T have to trade Jeff Carter and Rick Nash for!) in next year’s draft. One would think that for their franchise’s future that it’s crucial that they get something exciting going quick. Anyway, congratulations to the New York Rangers, I wish you nothing but less success than the Ottawa Senators in future endeavors!

I have had many a discussion with friends about obtaining Rick Nash since Ottawa made their intensions clear. I always found it important to couch everything with, “Before I start, let’s not for a second pretend that having Rick Nash on your team is a shitty situation…” The Rangers are obviously more dangerous now with him in the lineup regardless of the knocks on his career.

That out of the way, let me now say that I am firmly in the camp of being very relieved that Ottawa did not do this. Frankly, I’m a bit shocked that they were apparently quite aggressive in pursuing him. I suppose it is a GM’s job to explore all avenues to make their team better and that there is due diligence to be do’ed when a player like this is (sort of) on the market, but this early in the rebuild? I think Varada makes very valid (and terrifying!) points about Zibanejad but as fun as potentially fleecing a team by trading them a prospect that ends up being nothing is, I think given the Sens absolute wealth of them during an admitted rebuild they should hang onto them, let them play and get a clearer picture of who has what to offer. This is a rare opportunity where the franchise has the time to do this. I’m okay with Michalek-Spezza-Greening for another year to find out if Ziba/Stone/Infinity is the real deal! Did we all kiss Dave Poile’s ass for not trading any picks or prospects for years for nothing? Murray has made moves this summer and not given up shit. I commend him for it. In my opinion, Rick Nash simply never was the type of guy for what should be this team’s strategic plan.

So would I have done the “essentially Nick Foligno, Zack Smith plus 10 points and minus all toughness, Patrick Weircioch and what could end up being 30^th overall pick” deal it ended up being? Still no. It is wayyyyyy better than Foligno/Zibanejad/Lehner/1^st (holy FUCK typing that out really drives home how much of an overpayment that is) but let me express how much I HATE HATE HAAAAAATE that contract (so much!). It’s a Columbus banking on Nash being their franchise player contract. I gotta say, on the whole ‘Im not paying him so who cares if he’s not a high end top six forward in a few years?’ thing?.I’ll tell you who’d care, fucking EVERYONE would. Sergei Gonchar played over 20 minutes a night, put up nearly 40 points and had a very solid playoff performance and people in this town want to launch him into space! We’re a tough crowd when it comes to they money players make, roll back or no roll back. The team is at the floor now but in all goes well in a few short years Turris, Cowen, Silfverberg, Lehner/Bishop and who knows whatever other player that emerges will all be looking for new deals. A tough side effect of having an exciting young team I suppose. Now that’s not even to mention if less marquee names like Greening or Smith really start performing their respective roles effectively and command more money as well. If that sounds preposterous now look back at how the Sens got in all that cap trouble in the first place.

Ottawa hasn’t been a strong team in a number of years and I have watched them miss out on sweepstakes after sweepstakes and it’s taught me a lot. For one, it’s taught me that I haven’t felt like I’ve necessarily missed out as a fan most of the time. I didn’t feel like the Sens blew it when they missed out on Ilya Kovalchuk and I certainly don’t feel they missed out here. This isn’t to say I’m against grabbing an established guy to make the team better faster, it’s just that this seemed like such a wrong fit from the start. For me, the smart money would be Bobby Ryan. Comparable production, comparable pedigree, younger, more playoff experience, something something probably also scored a bunch of goals against Estonia internationally, and most importantly a shorter, cheaper deal if things go south. As happy as I am that Murray did not land Nash I’m equally disappointed that if he wanted a quality forward so bad that he was willing to give up top prospects that he didn’t go all in for Bobby Ryan.

Well, that concludes a week of Free Agent Frittatas, and let me say, it’s been almost as boring to write these things as it’s been for you to read them. Thank you, good night! Roger Federer is fucking amazing!

Nicky Foligno – Nicholai Foligniani’s new deal gives us a pretty good sense of what he would have signed for in Ottawa. Three years, $9.25MM, makes him about a $3MM/year player—or about what Marc Methot makes. Ottawa looked at their forward depth (and for our purposes here, I’m using “depth” to mean a very good number one center, a goal scorer with bionic knees, a 40 year old who might not come back, a reclamation project, and a bunch of rookies), and then at their back end, and decided to switch one out for the other. Not a terrible idea, though it seems to confirm that Ottawa plans on not just competing on a budget, but on being a cap floor team heading into next season. Unless Murray has something schneeky up his sleeve.

Here’s where it gets sort of interesting for me. There’s a lot of moaning when a franchise signs a player to a bloated contract. But unless you’re a team who spends to the cap, and intends to do the most with every inch of space, then who cares? It’s not my money. This is why I think it’s completely fair to expect the team to go after the occasional UFA, even if it requires inflating spending, if you’re not a cap team.

There’s a big difference between giving Kovalev $5MM a year when the Sens were spending like mad and the money could be used more effectively, and giving, say, Semin an inflated deal this year, when it probably still means being about $15MM-$20MM under the cap. (Just as an example. I’m not a particularly big fan of Semin.)

That’s why I’m happy to hear, even if it comes from notable Twitter-trash-talker Blech Garrioch, that the Senators are in on Bobby Ryan. Like any billionaire pharmaceutical magnate, Melnyk needs to spend some money. I don’t necessarily think they’ll get Ryan, and I’m anxious just what needs to go back the other way. But I do hope that Melnyk is willing to spend—not necessarily as much as he can, but just a little bit more than he is now.

Melnyk writes emails to the Sun guys – You have to wonder how much Melnyk is helping when he calls the other teams’ managers “idiots” for spending wildly. Once again, with feeling: Ottawa ain’t won shit yet, Mel.

Shea Weber – you’ve got to think that there’s no way Poile puts his other franchise defenseman on the block right after losing Ryan Suter. The team is obviously way better with him than without, and it would be a real step backward, almost to the point of necessitating a rebuild, to trade him for players and prospects.

…still, it’s fun to fantasize, amiright? Imagine a blueline with Erik Karlsson AND Shea Weber? My pants just popped open and I peed all over my desk.

The debates around trading for Rick Nash often revolved around the player’s ability or inability to reach lofty expectations. I agree with the notion that a $7.8MM-a-year, aging power forward is something to be wary of. But I sort of couldn’t believe people would be against trading Nick Foligno and a couple of prospects and picks for him.

So naturally, the question is, what would Ottawa (not just management, but the fans) be willing to part with for Weber?

My opinion? Whatever the hell Nashville wants. Really, short of Erik Karlsson, they can have whoever. They can have half the team. They can have Alfredsson. They can have the Scotiabank Place and we’ll go back to playing at the Civic Center. If Shea Weber is actually on the block, you do what you’ve got to do to put in a competitive bid, and then sign him for the rest of his life.

Okay, have a great weekend everyone!

Matt Carle – another day, another quality free agent off the market. Tampa signed Matt Carle to a six year, $33MM contract that will pay him a $5.5MM cap hit. This makes him the highest paid d-man on the team. 

Six years may seem like a lot for a 3-4 defenseman, as does that hit, but he is only 27 years old. The Lightning get themselves a stalwart who they can count on to provide NHL quality defense for years. Can’t complain too much about that.

They’ve also quietly assembled an interesting defense corp, though it’s one with a lot of question marks. You have Carle, Victor Hedman, Eric Brewer, twin grampas Matt Ohlund and Sami Salo, and our boy Brian Lee. If Anders Lindback works out for them–and by works out, I mean provides NHL replacement level goaltending–they should return to the playoffs in the typically weak South East. Also worth mentioning that the usually poor Lightning now have the ninth highest payroll in the league. The honeymoon is going to be over for Yzerman if they miss the dance again.

Tim Murray interview – the boys over on 6th Sens did their interview transcribing thing with Tim Murray, and Timmy said a few confusing things. First, he thinks Latendresse will score differently than Foligno because he goes hard to the net. I don’t think I ever saw Foligno score a goal that wasn’t the greasy, in-the-crease variety, and he took about a million goaltender interference penalties last season to prove it. Murray then goes on to cite injury and conditioning concerns for Latendresse. Well, I’m psyched.

Timmy also gets a dig in on Columbus, and how Methot should be excited he doesn’t have to play there anymore. Eaaaaaasy Studebaker: Sens finished fifth last a couple of seasons ago. We’re not exactly heavyweights here.

Finally, it sounds like the team is pretty much set on a defensive corp of Karlsson, Methot, Phillips, Gonchar, Cowen, Lundin, and Borowiecki. Here’s hoping Cowen takes that next step…one also has visions of a Gonchar trade dancing in one’s head.

Hugh Jessiman – Ah, who cares. It’s a warm body for Binghamton. When is the other shoe going to drop on reaching the cap floor, though?

You have to think that Murray is going to bring in at least another $2MM-$2.5MM player (presuming he re-signs O’Brien and Daugavins to similar contracts to what they received last year), and he may need to fill up to $7MM of space if Alfredsson decides not to return. Maybe Adnan over on SilverSevens gets his wish and we see Alex Semin in a Senators uniform. But I’d bet on more defensive depth. The forward corp is already looking at players in the press box.

Jagr – This is just hilarious. $4.5MM for a 54 point player? Every article I’ve read so far talks about how “invigorated” Jagr seemed last year in Philadelphia, and how he helped Claude Giroux become a dominant player. How about playing with Giroux helping Jagr to score 54 points, which, by the way, was only seven more points than Nick Foligno? Dallas will probably sell a few more jerseys as a result, but can’t imagine Jagr possibly living up to this salary.

Who’s left? – there’s a lot of 30+ year old veterans on the market – Doan, Huselius, Hagman – but not a lot of players who you want taking time from your prospects. Michael Rozsival out of Phoenix might be worth looking into, having played good second pairing minutes to a great CORSI rating. Carlo Colaiacovo too. And then there’s Peter Mueller, who could be reunited with Kyle Turris as two players Phoenix poured all kinds of development time into and got nearly nothing out of.

Again, some random thoughts on free agency as we head out into the hockey wastelands of summer.

Cap floor – I went on Twitter for a little while yesterday (not usually something I like to do) and it seemed like there was much discussion and confusion on just how far under the cap floor Ottawa is after these first couple of days of free agency. According to Capgeek, Ottawa has to spend almost $4.3 million to reach the cap floor. And other than Jim O’Brien and Kaspars Daugavins, there are no additional free agents that need signing.

That means that there has to be another move pending from Brian Murray, doesn’t there? Do we trade for the ghost of Tim Thomas? Did Jonathan Cheechoo sell his house in Orleans?

Who’s left? – other than Parise and Suter, I mean. I read somewhere that Parise wants $12M in each of the first two years and at least a decade-long deal, so let’s not touch that with a ten foot pole. Suter would be an amazing pick-up, but will probably get something similar. The rest is a whole lotta mixed nuts. Anyone want a slightly used Wojtek Wolski or Marco Sturm? Can only hope Ottawa is in on these Bobby Ryan sweepstakes. Apparently Anaheim wants a second line center back in return. We have a couple of those (kind of) in Turris, Regin, maybe Zibanejad. They probably don’t want prospects though.

Toronto Maple Leafs  – hilarious to see Brian Burke pontificate on how July 1st brings out the worst in GMs when he so memorably said “July 1st is our draft” only a few years ago. So, let me get this straight: he doesn’t use the draft to build, doesn’t use offer sheets, doesn’t offer front-loaded contracts, and doesn’t rely on July 1st. How can any GM abstain from so much on principle and still hope to build a team? What’s left except to trade mediocre players for different mediocre players?

Didn’t stop TSN from dedicating a few too many words on the Leafs signing a third line centerman, though.

Derek Roy – sort of can’t believe Buffalo only got Ott and Pardy for Roy. Sure, Roy had a stinky last season, but Buffalo is a team with a permanent coach. Surely there was a GM out there who thought Roy could be productive in a different system with different linemates, especially on such an affordable deal and with only one year left on it. Instead, the Sabres get a pesk who can put up a few points, and an enforcer. It’s like trading Chris Neil and Zenon Konopka for a former first line center. Seems totally weird to me.

If there was any doubt that Ottawa is a team on a tight internal budget, that’s all gone now. Having poured money into Karlsson’s new deal, Ottawa couldn’t even bring in their shutdown defenceman without shipping out a comparable deal in return. Then they took a flyer on two players who figure to contribute or barely play at all, giving them one year deals for about a million each. We’re thinking of changing our name to Welcome to Your Lundin Years.

Foligno for Methot – I think we all knew that Foligno was going to be traded sooner or later. Like Antoine Vermette years ago, he was a player who, rightly or wrongly, had expectations foisted upon him and didn’t meet them. Like Vermette, he was long rumored to be a part of one package or another, and was sought by other GMs who know he can be a solid complementary player. And LIke Vermette, when Murray finally pulled the trigger, it was for a return with potential to go either way.

Ottawa needed a shutdown defenseman, and with players like Jason Garrison getting $4M+ and SIX YEARS (nuts), it seemed the only way it was going to happen was by trade. Also, with Foligno set to get around Methot’s annual pay anyway ($3MM cap hit), they offset each other.

But is he any good? I guess, in a word: maybe. Methot played a career high average of about 17 minutes a night last season, having previously hovered around 16. His CORSI is all over the damn place – Relative CORSI is a terrible -16.3, but QOC was positive (even if it was only 0.920). So he was one of the worst players on a very poor team, basically. He’s also already 27, so he probably doesn’t have much room to grow.

There are plenty of questions about how he was used by coach Scott Arniel, so I’ll reserve judgement. But to me, this move seems about what Murray can afford. If the Senators need to be a team close to the cap floor, then maybe he couldn’t afford a new deal for Foligno and the defenseman he needed. Still, I hate to see Foligno go this way. It’s like trading a likeable guy with some upside just as he’s entering his prime for new carpeting in the dressing room.

Filip Kuba – Unlike almost everyone else, I think $4M a year is pretty reasonable for a guy who can play 18-20 minutes a night. Or, if it’s too much, it’s not by much. I think he’ll be a good player for Florida. Unspectacular and reliable.

You have to wonder if Ottawa would have been better off giving Kuba this deal than having to give up Foligno for Methot, who’s on a four year deal, and makes almost as much as the salary escalates year-over-year.

Not signing PA Parenteau or David Moss – Two random names, I know, but I like both players and thought they’d complement Ottawa’s system well. Parenteau got four years at $4M per in Colorado, and Moss got two years in Phoenix.