In which Varada seeds disinformation and erodes democratic values

So we’re doing this again.

The Senators get their first-round teeth kicked in, fail to meet the whole “these guys are built for the playoffs” mythology we’ve constructed around them, and a small but vocal corner of the internet looks at Brady Tkachuk’s contract, his brother’s Florida zip code, and his offseason house in New Jersey, and decides that the only logical path forward is to ship the captain out of town for parts. Every spring, the rest of us pour a beverage and try to talk them down.

I wrote on Bluesky that “You have to admit, Sens reporters and hockey podcasters repeatedly “reporting the news” that there’s speculation about Tkachuk without citing any sources except each other speculating about it isn’t just annoying and a distraction, it’s pretty unethical journalism.” 

And “The coach, GM, and player are straight up chastising journalists to their face for manufacturing news and the news story those journalists will run the next day will be headlined “trade speculation is only beginning.” It reads like a threat!” 

My opinion hasn’t changed. I strongly believe reporters whose job is to investigate and report are being lazy writing blog posts like the one I’m writing here. There is nothing to report. Am I being lazy by writing about this topic anyway? Yes! I am not a professional hockey reporter.

Let’s call this kind of post what it is: fun speculation. If you don’t find it fun to speculate, that is fair (and healthy). If you do, read on. But keep in mind that what this post does not contain is news.

So, with that caveat delivered, let’s engage with it. Pros. Cons. Trade packages. Therapy. The works.

The thing nobody wants to talk about: the window

Before we get to whether Ottawa should trade Brady, we need to establish why this conversation isn’t insane. It’s because of two contracts that look more ridiculous every time the salary cap goes up.

Tim Stützle is signed for $8.35M through 2030-31. He’s 24. Jake Sanderson is signed for $8.05M through 2032-33. He’s 23.

When Stützle signed his deal in 2022, his cap hit was 10% of the league cap. Next season, with the cap projected at $104M and rising, that same contract is going to eat about 8%. By the back half of the deal, he could be a top-line center taking up less cap space than your average second-pairing defenseman. Sanderson is on a similar trajectory.

This is the entire ballgame. Pierre Dorion, in between making moves that are still emotionally damaging Senators fans, accidentally signed two of the better long-term value contracts in the league. The challenge — the thing Steve Staios actually has to solve — is building a Cup contender around two stars whose deals are getting more team-friendly every July 1.

Tkachuk’s $8.2M is fine. It’s not the problem. And the $12M minimum he’ll get on his next deal is probably also “fine.” But “fine” is a relative concept when the players around him are “absurdly underpaid.”

Pros of trading Brady (the case for chaos)

1. Tkachuk has a no-movement clause and two years left. This is not a five-year runway. Trade him in 2027 and you’re trading a 28-year-old rental who controls his destination. Trade him this summer and you get something close to peak value for a player coming off five straight 30-goal seasons. Waiting is expensive.

2. The roster construction problem is real. Ottawa’s lineup right now: a top-six winger making $8.2M (Tkachuk), a top-line winger/center making $8.35M (Stützle), a #1 D making $8.05M (Sanderson), and the contracts you’ve seen handed out at every other position. There’s a version of this team where the Tkachuk dollars get redirected into a 2C, a real top-pairing right-shot defenseman, and depth scoring — and that team is structurally better than the one with Tkachuk on it.

3. A star winger is the least valuable kind of star. Capology 101: an $8M top-pair right-shot defenseman is a unicorn, an $8M top-line center is the cost of doing business, and an $8M winger is — politely — a luxury good. Tkachuk is an elite version of the cheapest position on the ice. The dollars do more work literally anywhere else on the roster, which is the entire reason this conversation exists.

4. The “is he the captain of a contender” question. Brady plays incredibly hard. He also takes penalties at a rate that would make a Bruin or a Flyer blush, and the playoffs have not exactly been a coronation. This is the most heretical pro on the list. We move on.

5. He’d presumably approve a destination he wants. The list of teams he’d say yes to is short, but every team on it has assets Ottawa actually needs. That’s leverage — small leverage, but leverage.

Cons of trading Brady (the case for not setting your own house on fire)

1. He is, by a wide margin, the best power forward Ottawa has produced since the Alfredsson era, and trying to replace 35-goal, 200-hit seasons is a fool’s errand. The math of trades like this is brutal: you almost always lose the deal in pure-talent terms and have to make it up on construction.

2. He’s not just “intangibles” good. He’s actually good. Brady has won everyone over with his compete level, his leadership, his attitude, and his ability to raise his game in high-pressure moments that are not the first round of the NHL playoffs. These are important, if occasionally overvalued, characteristics. But Brady’s underlying numbers are also, to use analytics terminology, “stupid.” I’m not sure how you replace this (per HockeyViz):

Tkachuk: 0.62 xGF/60 (+25%) / -0.08 xGA/60 (-3%)

McDavid: +0.57 X GF/60 (+23%) / -0.10 XGA/60 (-4%)

3. The optics in Ottawa would be apocalyptic. “We traded our captain to clear cap” is a sentence that ends GM careers in this market. Even if it’s the right hockey move, it requires the trade return to be visibly excellent on day one — not “in 18 months when the kid develops” excellent.

4. Tkachuk has an NMC and presumably likes Ottawa. This entire conversation is conditional on him being willing to leave. Every report so far suggests he isn’t. If you ask and he says no, you’ve just told your captain you tried to trade him. Have fun with that locker room.

5. The Stützle/Sanderson window thing cuts both ways. Yes, those contracts are great. They’re also great with Tkachuk on the roster. The window doesn’t open because you trade him; it opens because the other two are signed.

OK fine, what would the trade look like

Three scenarios, in decreasing order of “I would actually do this.”

The Florida thing

Sens get: Anton Lundell, Mackie Samoskevich, 2027 1st Panthers get: Brady Tkachuk

Lundell is 24, signed at $5M through 2029-30, and is exactly the 2C Ottawa hasn’t had since the invention of indoor plumbing. Samoskevich is a young top-six winger coming off his ELC. Brady gets to play with Matthew, signs an identical deal, and hopefully visibly declines on the same trajectory as his brother and an Atlantic division rival is crippled with $30 million worth of contracts tied up in two ineffective power forwards. Net cap impact: roughly a wash, depending on what Samoskevich signs for.

The Devils thing (a.k.a. “fix the right side”)

Sens get: Simon Nemec, Dougie Hamilton Devils get: Brady Tkachuk

This is the one that solves Ottawa’s actual structural problem. Nemec is 22, a former #2 overall, RFA, and a long-term answer on the right side of the blueline. Hamilton is 32, expensive, and not the future — but he’s a real top-four RHD for two years while Nemec develops, and the Devils have been openly trying to move him. Brady gets to commute home from his New Jersey house. The Sens fix two roster holes with one trade and finally have a top-four right side that doesn’t make you want to lie down.

The Rangers thing

Sens get: Alexis Lafrenière, Braden Schneider, 2027 1st Rangers get: Brady Tkachuk

Two 24-year-olds, both signable long term, one of whom is the right-shot defender Ottawa has been trying to acquire since the Harper administration. The downside is the cap math: Lafrenière at $7.45M plus Schneider’s next deal will probably push Ottawa $3-4M over what Tkachuk currently costs. (But not what he would cost after re-signing.) You’re betting on volume over a single star, which works only if you actually believe Lafrenière is about to break out. Some days I do. And it would be fun to have three picks from the top five in the 2020 NHL draft.

So, should they?

Probably not. Probably they keep him.

The honest read is that the only deal where Ottawa unambiguously wins is the New Jersey one, and that requires the Devils to part with both Nemec while shedding Hamilton and open up a massive hole on the right side of their defence corps. It can be done. It probably won’t be.

The Florida deal is the most fun/traumatic and the most likely to actually get agreed to despite the fact that both teams are in the Atlantic, but Lundell + Samoskevich + a pick is a lateral move, not an upgrade — you’re basically swapping star power for depth and praying the depth ages well. Now, if Florida were to offer their first round pick in this year’s draft (currently eighth overall), we’d really have a conversation…

The Rangers deal is the one Twitter wants and the one that costs Ottawa the most cap flexibility for the most uncertain return. This has shades of trading for Nikita Filatov and hoping he reaches his potential, which is a pretty unfair thing for me to say about Lafrenière.

The boring answer — keep Brady, find a 2C in free agency or via a smaller trade, or just keep working with Cozens to develop his defensive game, and ride the Stützle/Sanderson contracts into the next three seasons. The window is open because of those two deals, not because of any one move Staios might make this summer.

But if it’s July 14th and Brady walks into the GM’s office with a list of four teams, well…use promo code “WTYKY” for 20% off your first online therapy session with Sens Shrink.