Edmonton won the 2012 draft lottery yesterday, the same day Brian Burke used his exit press conference to exhibit his typical stubbornness and unwillingness to modify strategy. On the same day Edmonton earned the right to select first overall for an almost unprecedented third year in a row, Burke insisted that the draft was no way to rebuild. Responding to what the press referred to as the “Pittsburg model,” Burke shot back that Pittsburg won a lottery for one of the best players in the world—they had dumb luck and nothing more—and that that was the only factor in their sole Cup win.

It got me to thinking about the approach to rebuilding employed by these three Canadian teams – Toronto, Edmonton, and Ottawa – because they seem very different, and yet only in degrees relative to an underlying assumption about the effectiveness of the draft.

First, check out James Mirtle’s waaaaay old blog post about where picks in the draft end up. He has an even older post, which I can’t find, in which he breaks it down by picks inside the first round. I’m drawing from a shitty memory, but if I remember right there’s a disproportionately high number of top five picks who end up regular NHLers—not necessarily stars, just bona fide pros—after which the percentage drops precipitously.

Which informs my assumption about the “Pittsburg model”: it’s absolutely real, but needs to be employed fully to be effective. Meaning, you have to really, really suck for it to work. The draft can work if you’re Detroit and you exploit a system (Sweden) before anyone else in the league, or if you get lucky. Otherwise a rebuild through the draft is comprised of two parts: 1) tanking badly for a few years in order to obtain those few franchise pieces to build around, e.g. M-A Fleury, Crosby, Malkin, Jordan Staal; and 2) making trades and key signings once that core is obtained to complement and enhance the team, e.g. Gary Roberts, Marian Hossa, James Neal, Chris Kunitz, Paul Martin and Zybnek Michalek. While I’ll admit that no approach guarantees a team the Cup, this one seems the most reliable model for obtaining a core who will play with each other in their prime, and on affordable entry-level and/or RFA contracts, enabling other UFA signings. Three to five years of poor regular season performance, if your team can afford it, seems like a sure way to buy yourself double that time of playoff contention. Pittsburg have won their Cup, and their core will remain in their prime for another half-dozen years.

Edmonton seems the closest to replicating this model in textbook fashion. They haven’t escaped withering criticism from one of my favorite hockey bloggers, Tyler Dellow of MC79 Hockey, and he’s right to be concerned. They certainly give Dellow enough ammunition, what with their propensity for messing up minor elements of the CBA, mismanagement of key prospects, and their inability to negotiate a fair market contract for mediocre players. There’s also the small factor of totally imbalanced system development, with little to no defensive depth for a team top-heavy on offensive talent.

 It’s also difficult to ignore that Edmonton hasn’t just been bad, they’ve been far and away the worst team in the league since the lockout, and that not all of those years have been strictly rebuilding years—they were just years in which the team thought it should compete, and didn’t. Concern that their management team will not be able to make key acquisitions to complement their core when the time is right, or negotiate long term deals for their future stars, is valid. But the fact remains that the Oilers are so bad that they can’t help but fall ass backwards into a playoff team. Their multiple first overall selections are talented enough to escape even the Oilers’ inability to develop players optimally. They’ve consistently selected high enough to obtain those can’t miss building blocks. A few key defensive signings, a GM and coach who know what they’re doing, and even two or three of their later round picks panning out to provide depth to their raft of high-end franchise players, and the Oilers are set. They’re at the point where the team has to start showing improvement, but it could be a lot worse: they could be Calgary or Toronto, two markets who for years have been unable to admit their situation and are stuck in purgatory as a result.

Brian Burke on Pittsburg: “They got a lottery. They won a god damn lottery and they got the best player in the game. Is that available to me? Should we do that? Should we ask the League to have a lottery this year, and maybe we pick first?”

There are a few dozen levels on which this quote is confusing, and not only for its arrogance (truculence?) and stubbornness. First of all is the “Is that available to me?” question, which implies the draft lottery as a method of rebuilding a team isn’t available to Toronto when of course it is. Burke has repeatedly demonstrated an unwillingness to avail himself of provisions in the CBA that are commonly used, be it long-tail contracts, offer sheets, or the draft. More importantly, the implication is that unless the team gets the first overall pick and a generational player is available, that there is no value to the lottery. I have to admit, this isn’t totally unfair. While Pittsburg drafted Malkin and Staal second overall, there are as many cautionary tales (usually Columbus picks like Filatov and Zherdev) as there are success stories.

Nonetheless, Burke’s comments are weirdly nonsensical. “Should we ask the League to have a lottery this year, and maybe we pick first?” is a good one, as he doesn’t need to ask the League to have a lottery: they had one, and Toronto had the chance to win it and pick first. Burke almost seems pissed to not have the choice to opt out of the opportunity.

I’ve already written about how Toronto is having trouble conceptualizing a rebuild without adhering, at least a little bit, to building through the draft. If you don’t draft, and the UFA market is thin (which every GM worth a dollar saw coming as a result of the salary cap and teams locking up their young talent to long term contracts), all you’re left with is trades. True to form, Burke announced that trades would be his primary route this offseason. He will once again swap out components of a bottom-ten team for similar components, and will probably finish in the bottom ten next year as a result. I’m left to conclude that Burke’s strength—his principled approach and unbending willpower—are in this case the franchise’s greatest weakness. Toronto will never rebuild properly until they have a GM who doesn’t get up in front of the media and say things like, “I’m not a patient person. I was born impatient, I’m going to die impatient.”

Which brings us to Ottawa.

If the comments on this and other Senators blogs are any indication, we Sens fans are feeling pretty damn good about our pipeline. We have pedigree in Zibanejad, Filatov, Turris, and Cowen, and we have surprising, even dominant performances from Stone, Silfverberg, Lehner, Bishop and Noesen. There are also plenty of X factors in the system, promising players who might put it together. These are combined with a young franchise player in Erik Karlsson hitting his prime and realistically able to play for the Senators for the next decade-plus. In this way, Ottawa’s drafting and development is probably closer to, say, Los Angeles’, a team with a strong system despite rarely tanking all the way, than it is to Edmonton’s or the New York Islanders’, two teams who always seem to be in the bottom five and have been unable, as yet, to show improvement in the standings.

I’m optimistic, too, about how well Ottawa has seemed to do with only one draft off of which to launch a rebuild. The logic goes that if this team can make the playoffs as currently constructed, and has at least a couple quality NHLers on the way, that it will only improve, even with the impending retirement of the team’s heart and soul player, Daniel Alfredsson.

Except that I still think the goal of any rebuild has to be to win the Cup, not simply improve. How close is Ottawa compared to their fellow rebuilders? How close will they be after the 2012 draft? How about five years from now?

Like Los Angeles, Ottawa is on track to develop into a bubble team. Hopefully this means more years in the playoffs than out, but it also doesn’t quite mean an extended period of genuine Cup contention. The assumption is that this year’s unexpected playoff appearance is indicative of a franchise further ahead in its process, which I think is simply untrue. A team that chose not to sell off many of its key veterans—Chris Phillips, Daniel Alfredsson, Sergei Gonchar and Filip Kuba, primarily—combined with a Norris-worthy season from Karlsson and some late-game heroics in the early going, results in a team that can eke into the eighth seed for the right to play a team who finished 17 points better than them in the standings. Subtract a few of those veterans as they get older or retire; have Karlsson play at a human level; and have the incoming rookies play like rookies. What you have is a team that traded in a valuable year of drafting and development for what will most likely be a brief, if awesome, appearance in the playoffs.

There are a lot of angles at which to look at the problem: is Melnyk right when he says things like this team needs to get to the second round to break even, and so they can’t survive a few years without playoffs? Does it make sense to re-sign Bryan Murray when he’s clearly in his final contract and will most likely not want to spend it managing a basement team? Are Senators prospects like Matt Puempel 2011’s Angelo Esposito? (Remember that highly regarded prospect?)

Most of all: what does the fan base want? Three to five years of terrible hockey in exchange for a decade of contention, or one year of terrible hockey in exchange for five years of exciting if totally unpredictable bubble team games. Both are completely reasonable choices. I actually agree with the statement that “anything can happen in the playoffs.” I just want to make sure we’re in them more years than not.

I hate to say it, but as much as Edmonton or the Islanders look like a joke now—as much like a joke as Pittsburg back in the day—they are both much closer to winning a Cup than Ottawa is, despite Ottawa being in the playoffs in 2011.

As always, it could be worse: we could be Toronto. Let’s hope it never comes to that.

The nicest man in dodge?

Unsurprisingly, reports have Jarome Iginla once more contemplating a trade out of Calgary. This has been a news story every April, given the Flames have found themselves out of the playoffs for the past three years running. But with only a year left on his contract and the Flames finally looking like they’ll embrace a rebuild, this is probably it for the aging power forward. It’s hard to wrap your head around him in another uniform, but it’s probably going to happen.

At $7MM a year, there won’t be many teams able to take on Iginla’s salary, and unless Calgary is looking to do a “halfie” rebuild—part veterans and part younger players in return—there will be few suitors. Those with the cap space don’t often have the financial means. Those with the means and the space may not have the picks or prospects.

Ottawa could be one of those few teams in the sweet spot. They have the cap space, even after signing Karlsson to whatever he’s gonna get. One thinks they have the money, considering the playoff and All-Star revenue from this year, the buy-outs coming off the books this season, and the fact that Alfie’s salary decreases by about three million bucks next year. They have the prospects to send back in exchange, and a low enough first round pick not to miss it too much.

But is he even any good these days? The numbers aren’t in dispute, even as Iginla has aged: he’s scored more than 30 goals and more than 60 points every single season since 1999-2000, and often playing without a number one centerman. He’s one season removed from a 43-43-86 season. And, let’s all say it again: only one season left on that deal.

The X-factor here is Alfredsson. Would the likelihood of a trade for Iginla increase or decrease if Alfie retires this year? They’re both right wingers, and so Iginla could step in and fill the vacuum of skill, tenacity, and leadership if he’s gone. If he’s not, it may not make sense to have so much money loaded up on the right wing, but then again maybe Iginla would be more likely to accept a trade to Ottawa with the Captain around.

Everyone’s offseason crush is going to be Zach Parise, and I absolutely think Ottawa should be in on that mad bidding war, but I know the odds are slim. What say you? In the absence of younger impact players, would you be willing to part with the picks and prospects to trade for Jarome Iginla?

A marked contrast to our jumped-the-gun preview of Ottawa’s series against Boston, Ottawa has an actual chance in their first round match-up against the New York Rangers. The Boston Bruins and specifically Tim Thomas had Ottawa’s number in addition to stunning regular season numbers. New York, despite finishing better in the standings and winning the President’s Trophy, finished worse than Boston in most categories, both offensive and defensive. More importantly, they also finished worse than Ottawa in a few key categories.

Ottawa has a fight on its hands, but for the first time in the history of the modern franchise it has the chance to play the first round upset, and gain even more respect from a league that’s underestimated them from day one.

Offense

Ottawa’s got a goals-per-game of 2.96, good for fourth in the league, which compares to New York’s 2.71, which is 11^th.

Ottawa’s powerplay is 11^th at 18.2% compared to New York’s surprisingly pathetic 23^rd place 15.7%.

Ottawa also outshoots New York 31.4 to 28.5 per game.

Their faceoff percentage is almost exactly the same, 50.1% to 50% in favor of Ottawa.

When comparing Ottawa to Boston, Ottawa only had an advantage on the powerplay. Against New York, their offensive advantage is much more pronounced, as they lead in every category. This will be particularly interesting to see against Henrik Lundqvist, who has been the regular season guy for New York but has never been that guy in the playoffs, and has had trouble against Ottawa.

New York’s offense looks great on paper, with elite scoring and two-way forwards throughout the lineup. Players like Callahan and Dubinsky are supposed to make their hay in the playoffs. One hopes that the pressure and “win-now” mentality gets to New York’s nine million dollar Brad Richards and seven million dollar Gaborik. If they don’t produce, and produce easily, they’re going to face some uncomfortable interviews.

Ottawa gets the most out of its league minimum rookies and sandpaper third liners, with key scoring from Colin Greening, Eric Condra, and Zack Smith. Those role players will need to help out Jason “Not Considered Elite for Some Reason” Spezza and Erik “Can’t Win the Norris Trophy Because He Doesn’t Play on the Penalty Kill” Karlsson. A player like Nick Foligno can prove his worth heading into a contract negotiation by being Ottawa’s Callahan.

Defense

The two teams’ defensive prowess is the exact opposite of its offensive matchup, with New York having better defense and goaltending in pretty much every category.

New York’s goals against per game were third best in the league at 2.22, while Ottawa is a terrible, terrible 24^th at 2.88.

Likewise, New York’s penalty kill is fifth best in the league at 86.2% compared to Ottawa’s 20^th at 81.6%.

New York’s shots against per game is sixth best in the league at 27.8 compared to Ottawa’s bruuuuuuuuutal 29^th at 32 per game.

So, not unlike their potential matchup with Boston, Ottawa is going to need to outscore New York to overcome their own defensive deficiencies. It’s just not so dire as Boston’s impossible, invincible late game lock-downs. For example, New York is only 16^th in the league when leading after the first period compared to Boston’s first place, and New York is eighth when leading after two periods, compared, again, to Boston’s first place. All of this leads to the possibility that Ottawa can pull off their cardiac kid routine.

New York has great young defenders Del Zotto and McDonagh (WHAT THE FUCK, MONTREAL), shutdown defence in Marc Staal, and seems-like-a-good-guy Dan Girardi.

Ottawa has several promising young defenders—Cowen, Karlsson—and the ghosts of several players who were once quite good in Kuba, Phillips and Gonchar. Together they might become a super ghost capable of turning in some great games.

Once again, New York looks better on paper, but that hasn’t quite translated to regular season victories against Ottawa.

Baconator

Ottawa faces a similar situation to what they would have faced against Boston, except the volume is turned down ever so slightly. They face a world-class goaltender, a solid defensive system, and depth two-way forwards. For some reason, they’ve just ended up on the winning side of the ledger, where against Boston they’ve come out stymied and frustrated.

The powerplay still needs to get its mojo back, and Ottawa will need the Craig Anderson who steals a game or two compared to the one who allows a goal from center ice.

But most of all, Ottawa needs to take advantage of the crushing pressure on New York to be a Stanley Cup champion like RIGHT NOW. Ottawa’s been in New York’s shoes before. A pesky team who can score goals and occasionally get hot can be the fly in the ointment to what is otherwise a dream season. If Ottawa can steal a game against New York on the road—especially game one—they can then sit back and allow the New York media to go into hysterical mode and eat the team alive. Let Tortorella lose his head and scream at his boys while MacLean says lots of Zen things about building a foundation and how this is all gravy.

Every non-Ottawa publication is going to pick New York in five or six. But we know better: Ottawa has a real chance of pulling this thing off.

I wrote this yesterday, before Boston’s 3-1 win over a lethargic Senators squad, with the intention of posting it when playoff seeding was finalized. But now, with the real possibility that the Senators will face the Rangers if they lose in regulation to New Jersey and Washington wins their remaining game, I figured I should probably just post this thing so it’s not all for naught. I’ll write another 1700 words about the Rangers if need be. So here you have our Epic First Round Preview Which May Never Happen:

And lo’, did our Lord and Savior Bryan Murray in his 187^th year look upon what he had built and think: this is Good, or at the very least I expect us to be competitive and anything can happen in the playoffs and so on. For the Ottawa Senators were returned to the land of milk and honey, that place where it is rumored that each home date produces an additional million dollars in ticket revenue to say nothing of merchandise sales, and where people are compelled to descend upon James Street Feed Company so that they may drink beer from dirty taps and sup on a feast of deep fried somethings that do make one’s stomach churn mightily. And we did think back to the days of Cory Clouston and did weep at our foolishness. And we did laugh at the Toronto Maple Leafs and their fan base, who are cursed and rightly so, for they have not, nor will they, know such joy as playoff hockey.

But hark, the Beast that is before us is a strong and shitty one. Built for playoff hockey, armed with a defenceman that Ottawa spurned in favor of Wade Redden, and stacked from top to bottom with professional agitators, Murray knoweth this is probably the worst matchup for Ottawa. Hell, it’s bad for anyone. Even the better-ranked New York Rangers would be preferable. Our faith will be tested. But if we manage to stay awake on the bus ride out to Kanata we’ll give it our all and with laser pointers in hand will aim into the eyes of the Beast (Editor’s note: don’t actually do that.) and anyway we’ll be drunk.

Offense

Ottawa and Boston are ranked about as comparably as can be in goals-per-game, with Boston ranked third in the league at 3.18 and Ottawa fourth at an even 3. Boston’s 5-on-5 goals are a bit better at 1.32, which is again third in the league, compared to Ottawa’s 1.06, which is 10^th. Boston’s powerplay is ranked 14^th at 17.3% compared to Ottawa’s ninth at 18.5%–and that, ladies and gentlemen, is just about the only category you will find in which Ottawa has a statistical advantage over Boston. Boston is also ranked third in the league in shots per game, at 32.3 to Ottawa’s 31.3, good for ninth. Finally, Boston is the best team in the league in faceoff percentage. (Damn you Bergeron.) Ottawa is 15^th.

Which is to say that we’d better hope Ottawa’s recent struggles on the powerplay are temporary. Boston outmatches Ottawa in every regard at even strength, and their G/G averages are only close because Ottawa spent so much of the early season dominating with the man advantage. Milan Michalek’s otherworldly shooting percentage, which tumbled in the back half of the season, needs to pick up. Karlsson needs to heat up again and rack up assists, to say nothing of starting to score goals again. And the depth scoring—Greening, Smith, Condra, Neil, Foligno—need to get back to where they were early on, scoring timely if not frequent goals. But more than anything, so much more than anything that it needs to be stated again, the friggin’ powerplay needs to start clicking. If they go 0-for-9 or something, they’re a turkey dinner.

Boston will be missing Nathan Horton to injury, lost Michael Ryder to free agency and Mark Recchi to retirement. Otherwise they’ll have their scary forward depth at full power. Faceoff invincibility is assured by Patrice Bergeron and it flows from there with grit and skill throughout. Lucic and Krejci are representative of the team’s all-around two-way play and go-to-the-net-itude. Pest Marchand is prepped to make Gonchar make that baby-with-gas face he makes, and sophomore Stanley Cup-ring-having Tyler Seguin (FUCK, TORONTO, WHAT THE HELL) will return to see if he can occasionally score a hat trick. Players like Benoit Pouliot and Chris Kelly extend the skill and two-way excellence all the way down.

Ottawa will not be missing anyone other than Peter Regin, who’s been hurt since 1978, and potentially Bobby Butler, who will probably be scratched. They will also hope that Boston forgets that Jason Spezza, he of the point-per-game play, is in the game.

Defense

Obviously Tim Thomas and the Bruins have had Ottawa’s number all year. Thomas is 4-1 against Ottawa this season with a .932SV% and 2.41 GAA. He’s also a ridiculous 23-9-2 all time against the Sens, with a .937SV% and 1.98 GAA. Thomas has done nothing but consistently stonewall the Senators, so we’re obviously all hoping he tweaks his groin and Ottawa ends up facing Marty Turco instead.

In Ottawa’s end, the team has lived and died, and will continue to do so, with Craig Anderson. Though the team has some options with exciting young players in Robin Lehner (who earned the team’s only win against Boston with a shutout this season) and Ben Bishop, Anderson is the team’s starter. He, along with the team’s powerplay, will remain the biggest influence on this entire series. Will he be the Anderson who faces 40+ shots and steals the game? Or will he be the Anderson who allows a goal from center ice or gets all mopey-faced when he wanders out of his net and bobbles the puck? I think he can be a game-changer, not just someone who “gives the team a chance to win.” But he’ll have to outduel the reigning Vezina and Conn Smythe winner. Just keep Don Brennan away from him.

Team defense doesn’t look nearly so even handed as offense. Boston is sixth in the league with a 2.44 goals-per-game, and to find Ottawa you need to look waaaaaaaay down to 25^th and their 2.86. Boston is also 11^th in shots allowed per game at 29.6 and Ottawa is second worst in the entire league at 32.1. Perhaps surprisingly, Boston and Ottawa share similar penalty kills at 83.2% (11^th) and 81.9% (15^th) respectively. Also interestingly, Boston has the fewest overtime losses in the league with four compared with Ottawa’s 13^th place 10 OT losses. Not sure how much can be read into this, but it being the playoffs you know there will probably be some overtime played, and Boston has a tendency to get it done in the extra frame.

Boston may be missing the recently re-signed Johnny Boychuk, who is more important to that team than a lot of people realize, which is I guess is the scenario in preparation for which they picked up defensive depth in Greg Zanon. They also have this guy Zdeno Chara playing 30+ minutes a night, who is apparently pretty good, and Dennis Seidenberg, who is one of the league’s best shot-blockers. Ottawa will have to try and exploit their speed against a team that at times can look like a wall.

Some other interesting (depressing) statistics: Boston is first in the league in winning percentage when scoring the first goal at .853%, and first in the league in winning when leading after one period at a mind-bending 91.7%. (Ottawa is 17^th and 20^th respectively). The second best team (Philly) is at only 86.7%. It’s not even close.  Oh, and get this: Boston has won 100% of the games in which they were leading after two periods. Ugh. This team locks down like a motherfucker. Ottawa needs to get on the board early, and first. The cardiac kid routine isn’t going to work here.

The Senators’ defense is founded on Murray’s quasi-famous (in Ottawa at least) proclamation that the “other team should block our shots for a change,” which is why he let Anton Volchenkov go and signed the ghost of gnarly wizard Sergei Gonchar, who according to Wikipedia used to be one of the best puck moving defencemen in the league! Pretty cool. Erik Karlsson is running this shit at this point, dragging along his scrappy doghouse of veterans, giving Filip Kuba a good enough +/- to get him another contract and probably painting Chris Phillips’ house.

It’s sort of absurd to think that Ottawa’s chances in this series against the Boston Fucking Bruins will rest on the shoulders of a 180lb offensive defenseman, but it looks like that’s the case. He seems to feed on confidence, and he didn’t look out of place two seasons ago playing against Pittsburg. Here’s hoping that he saunters into this series against the defending champs with enough swagger to carry the fragile egos and puppy dog faces of veterans Chris Phillips and Sergei Gonchar, and surprises the Boston faithful. Let’s also hope Chara doesn’t Phaneuf-hitting-Da Costa the kid in the neutral zone and accidentally kill him on national television.

Baconater

I don’t want to sound like the series is a foregone conclusion: Ottawa’s been surprising teams all season long, though they’ve come down to earth a bit in recent weeks and months. At the very least this will be an enormous advantage for Ottawa’s rookies, an experience for them to build on and an important step to establishing a winning culture in Ottawa’s dressing room.

With the Bruins’ propensity for edgy play, Ottawa might benefit from a few penalty calls, and their ability to steal this series will be dependent almost entirely on Anderson’s play and whether they can score on Tim Thomas on the powerplay. Other than that it’s all one game at a time. If they can get that split in Boston and then come home, then they’re off to the races. This is clearly a case of trying to out-score the opposition. They can’t clamp down and play tight playoff hockey—they’ll have to run-and-gun it and hope someone in our colors is still alive on the other side. If they try to beat the Bruins at their own game, which is to say spend the first period having Chris Neil take a run at Marchand and Matt Carkner overcompensating for the Bruins’ toughness, then the Sens will probably spend most of the game in the penalty box. Ottawa needs to play smart, not take the bait, and more than anything get shots on net. The rest will be up to Craig Anderson.

No pressure, dude.

We know that next year’s roster will likely include Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, and possibly more of Ottawa’s many prospects, not to mention lost souls Bobby Butler, Stephane Da Costa and Nikita Filatov, who are scouring the bottom of the ocean looking for their game. So we’ve got a few UFAs to consider. (I’m not looking at RFAs like Nick Foligno or Peter Regin, because I assume they’ll all be back.) What better time than an exciting ramp up to the playoffs to look beyond said playoffs and consider the dry logistics of contract negotiation?

Jesse Winchester – After an injury shortened season, Winchester may end up the victim of incoming depth, particularly with the emergence of Jim O’Brien as a reliable 3/4 centerman and Peter Regin’s ability to switch to wing. I’d think he has to be worth the close-to-league minimum salary he’ll earn though, especially given how easily he draws into the lineup, his play on the penalty kill, and how strong he is along the boards. True NHLers who also happen to be cheap and will accept short contracts are valuable. If you have to sit him in the press box because of excess depth, that’s a problem most GMs would love to have. RE-SIGN HIM.

Zenon Konopka – When Zenon joined the Senators as his fifth NHL club in seven seasons, I was one of I imagine few people to be quite happy with it. Cheap, good face-off man, good in the room (we hear) and consistently leads the NHL is fighting majors, I was convinced that if you’re going to insist on having a player like that on your roster it may as well be him. 55 NHL games later and I’m not so sure. One consequence of Konopka fighting so much is that it seems to have little effect on the game itself. He fights as a matter of professional obligation, and it rarely seems in response to anything happening in game. It’s not accurate to say that he’s policing . I’ve become desensitized to Konopka’s presence. Worse, he’s prone to taking terrible penalties at bad times. CUT HIM LOOSE.

Colonel Klinkhammer – The Curious Case of Dr. Bob Klinkhammer, currently enjoying his longest stint in the NHL and not exactly lighting it up despite an opportunity to play extended periods with Alfredsson and Turris. 14 games in and he’s still looking for that first NHL goal. You’ve got to think that his natural spot on the team will be absorbed by Silfverberg or Zibanejad. At only 25 there’s plenty of potential here, but unless he’s willing to accept a two-way contract and spend time in Binghamton I just don’t see him returning to Ottawa. THROW THAT SKELETON OUT A HELICOPTER.

Filip Kuba – This is the biggest question facing Murray in the offseason other than how many zeros to add to Erik Karlsson’s contract. Kuba’s posting the best +/- of his career, and playing 20+ minutes a night. He’s a legitimate top four defenseman, and take a look at how few of those will be available July 1st. Barring some impossible run at Ryan Suter, Dennis Wideman, or maybe Johnny Oduya, this team isn’t going to replace those minutes internally. Or it could sign Jeff Finger. On the other hand, at 35 this is probably Kuba’s last professional contract, and I can’t blame him for insisting on three to four years at an average of $2MM-$3MM. That’s overpayment for Ottawa, but I’d still make the argument that it should happen. Cowen is still young, playing 20 minutes one night and 12 the next. There isn’t much defensive depth coming up, unless you think Eric Gryba is better than a bottom pairing D. Gonchar and Phillips will be a year older and less likely to shoulder the load. And he plays well with Karlsson. I think you’ve gotta PIAY THE MIAN HEESE MIONEE.

Matt Gilroy – Gilroy’s a tough nut to crack. He’s getting plenty of ice time, but in a system as wide-open as Ottawa’s you’ve got to think that a puck moving defenceman could do better than one assist in 13 games and a -2, especially considering that he had 17 in 53 and was a plus player with the terrible Lightning. He’s had his chances, and has famously blown a few open net shots. His CORSI is anemic. At this point you’ve got to think that he’s already scoping out potential destinations. MAKE HIM WATCH THE SANDRA BULLOCK VEHICLE ‘THE NET’ AND THEN DON’T RE-SIGN HIM.

Matt Carkner – I may be in the minority in thinking that Matt Carkner represents a fairly valuable type of player: cheap enough to occasionally sit without major consequence, willing to take a short deal, can play as a 6-7 defenseman in the NHL, and fights. Defensive depth is the name of the game, and if the acquisition of Matt Gilroy has showed us anything, a player good enough that you barely notice him is worth something. He may seem expendable, but he’s a low-risk player. Murray may let him walk only because he deserves a chance to sign longer term somewhere else, but if he’ll take something resembling his current deal, then UPGRADE HIS KITCHEN.

Alex Auld – Who? I think Auld got a raw deal this year, never being put in a position to succeed, but he’s obviously expendable with Ben Bishop towering over his shoulder and asking Auld “are you going to eat that?” Plus if Auld sticks around any longer Robin Lehner will cut the brake lines in his car. With so many teams desperate for goaltending, he’ll find work. RELEASE THE HOUNDS.

Well, there it is: no late season collapse robbing us of our newfound feeling of entitlement to playoff hockey, just another afternoon domination of the perpetually rebuilding Islanders. The Senators clinch a playoff spot to top off what has been a long and thoroughly fucking awesome season of Senators hockey.

A few thoughts:

1) Turris: I’ve been as vocal as anyone from the day Rundblad was traded to Phoenix that I didn’t like the trade. I’ve maintained that Rundblad could have been the centerpiece of some larger, better trade, and moreover, was nowhere near his full trade value when sent packing. But it’s games like today’s that make a man admit when he looks wrong. And Turris made me look wroooooooong today. The casual way he delayed on that first goal was a delicious marinara sauce. I can admit it. He looks great.

2) The Islanders: you know, I’ve also kind of felt for a while that the Islanders, while of course a bit of a joke for all of the obvious reasons, were running a really solid rebuild. They’ve drafted and developed their prospects patiently. They’ve locked up their core players. They have great prospects coming up. They should be active in the offseason, possibly trading for veteran contracts from teams who’ve bottomed out. (If I was Garth Snow, I’d be the first one to call Montreal’s new GM, Pierre McGuire.) They’re probably moving to Brooklyn, which is an awesome place. I truly do believe that there will come a season, and pretty soon, when the Islanders will be the team-du-jour to get behind.

But you know, there are times when you’re watching the New York Islanders, with Al Fucking Montoya in net, and JOHN FUCKING GRAHAME backing him up, and you just have to think that the Islanders will be hopeless forever. Is there any franchise other than the Islanders that you could picture having a goaltending tandem of Montoya and Grahame? What a bunch of maroons.

3) First round match ups: I’m sure there’s going to be about a million articles about first round match ups for you folks in the next few days and weeks, but I’m getting some early worrying done about facing Boston. Florida is obviously everyone’s favorite dance partner, and I’d rather face the New York Rangers any day of the week. Needless to say, now that we’ve clinched I’ll be cheering Washington on a bit to take over that 7th seed.

4) Earlier today I saw an old woman fall down some stairs outside a church: don’t worry, she was okay, but she’ll have a real goose egg over her right eye. I told her it’ll look really badass. She didn’t agree.

5) You know who I’m kind of sick of? Chris Neil: I mean, I get it. A tough guy who can chip in some goals is worthwhile, and the way he drew that penalty shows that he can be a useful pest rather than one of those ‘remnants of the way the game used to be played’ pests. But during games like this, when you’re missing two top six forwards and he’s a key veteran who you expect to step up, you can really see the limit of his abilities. I like him because he’s a Senator, but I can imagine being a fan of another team and detesting Neil.

6) What’s your favorite Sens playoff goal? Mine is Dean McAmmond’s shorthanded goal on Brodeur during the 2007 Cup Run. I can’t find a clip of it, but this McAmmond to Saprykin goal was also pretty sweet.