Senators at (about) the halfway point

First off…how have we never found this image before?

We’re not quite there yet, but close enough to take stock of our Senators, catalogue some reactions, and wonder about the second half of the season. In themes!

What does this mean for the rebuild?

Obviously if the team is outperforming expectations, it’s neither rational nor fair to lament a lost rebuild. I’m looking at the Islanders or Blue Jackets and am not at all jealous of them for having a shot at Nail Yakupov so much as thinking that if he ends up there Yakupov will face some serious obstacles to having a fulfilling, competitive career. The Senators have both exciting prospects (Zibanejad, Noesen, Puempel, Lehner, Prince, Silfverberg), unexpectedly exciting ones (Stone, the mysterious defenceman in Binghamton that Murray alluded to being “almost ready”), some young players already performing beyond expectations (Karlsson, Cowen) and some X factors (DaCosta, Filatov). More than enough, one might think, to elevate what is already there to something more.

But there are still plenty of questions for a team that is, even with all pistons pumping, essentially a bubble team, and one with too many question marks to seriously trouble a team like the Bruins, Penguins, Flyers or Rangers. (I keep Florida off that list because, seriously, does anyone know what that team is about now? Would you be surprised if they went 21-21 for the rest of the season?) Players like Kuba and Alfredsson mean a lot for the team’s success so far this season, and the picks or prospects they might yield in a deadline trade won’t be useful for three or four seasons. A playoff round’s worth of ticket revenue might be worth the longterm depth of this team.

This seems evidenced by Murray’s decision to roll the dice on Kyle Turris, who has looked pumped to be playing in a hockey market, but who cost the team a lot in their best prospect and a pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole strategy of conservative building goes out the window if the team shows a strong, six-game loss in the first round—even if that means more prospects leaving town, or free agent acquisitions.

This is a fickle market, but I don’t think there’s ever been a time when the fan base was more amenable to doing what was necessary to build a contender. It’s easy to get swept up in exciting hockey, and I’m all for building a winning culture. But I don’t want to see this team mortgage depth for another year of “anything can happen in the playoffs” attitude.

Is the team playing above their heads?

With Karlsson leading defencemen in scoring, Spezza having flirted with top ten in scoring, and Michalek with the lead in goals, this team has players who, occasionally, are among the best in the league. Not to take anything away from their stellar play, but that’s not something you can count on season in and season out, and it’s one of the main reasons Ottawa is where they are in the standings. A couple of key injuries, and the Senators are in a world of trouble. Heading into the second half of the season, you might expect these players to tail off a bit. Or they might put together a full season, but it’s best to plan around a more modest forecast than to say “this is the new norm.” Especially with Daniel Alfredsson, their best all around player, considering retirement.

Are the Senators as bad as everyone thought they were at the beginning of the year? Of course not. We all predicted a bottom ten, maybe a bottom five finish, but anyone familiar with their lineup, and who didn’t become enamored with other teams’ acquisitions (Jeff Carter was going to turn the Blue Jackets into a scoring machine?) knew better than to pencil in the worst. But realistically, this is a team that will miss the playoffs. I hope they bust all of those paper bag predictions, but it looks the case.

Goaltending. Sigh.

The more things change…

No one could have predicted that after being traded for Craig Anderson, playing himself out of a qualifying offer from Colorado, and then being signed as a backup in St. Louis that Brian Elliott would be among the best tenders in the league. Similarly, no one could have thought after Anderson’s play down the stretch that he would be one of the weakest links on a defensively porous team. He may face more shots than all but two other teams it the league (Dallas and Minnie, for those keeping track, who have also succeeded by outscoring their opposition), but his numbers are atrocious. Alex Auld has not proven himself capable of stealing the starting job, and Robin Lehner still lacks a lot of maturity. One hopes that Anderson’s performance will trend upward in the second half of the season, but it’s hard to get excited about what we see there today. I hated the four year deal when it came down—and I’m an Anderson fan, I was when he was in Florida—so all we can do now is hope for the best.

What to do in the offseason?

Getting waaaaay ahead of myself here, but there are some key questions heading into 2012. Karlsson and Foligno are due new deals, and we know at least the first of those will involve an enormous pay raise. If they receive $7M and $3M per year respectively, the team allows Kuba, Carkner and Winchester to walk, Alfie stays for the last year of his deal, and all other RFAs remain at about the same pay, that’s about $18M in cap space. (Including a bunch of buyouts coming off the books.) That’s a lot of coin to play with, unless this team wants to maintain an internal cap. (Gotta pay for that scoreboard, if the heritage jersey sales haven’t already.) You have to wonder if the team will consider one of the premier free agents—does Ryan Suter make it to market? How about Zach Parise? Does the team go for a second tier player like Huselius, or does Murray reunite with Dustin Penner for a good ol’ fashioned reclamation project?

What Should Senators Fans Be Thankful For in 2012?

Answer: the rest of the Northeast Division (minus the Bruins)

The Senators, now in a golden age of Reasonable Expectations, can only compare positively to most of their Northeastern brethren.

As I’ve already written about on this blog, the Sabres stink. Not just as a matter of luck, but to their very core, as if to stink is to answer an existential quandary. It’s their identity. How else do you explain their blind faith in Lindy Ruff and Darcy Regier after so many years of mediocrity? The commitment to players like Derek Roy, Paul Gaustad and the disgusting Patrick Kaleta? Pegula might get around to firing Regier, which then makes the firing of Ruff possible, but the damage is already done. They’re only in the first year of those brutal Erhoff and Leino contracts. Imagine how much more awful this team will be with about $10M coming off the cap next year. I can’t wait for them to pay Alex Semin all that money, only to conclude once again that “it will all depend on Ryan Miller!”

In Toronto, Brian Burke needs about four assistant GMs so that he can continue to make asinine decisions based entirely on his all-important sense of integrity, whether it be not to avail himself of the mechanisms permitted under the CBA, or to impose restrictions observed by no other team, or to, ludicrously and hilariously, renew Ron Wilson’s contract for absolutely no discernible reason beyond their apparent friendship and shared values. For this he is the highest paid GM in the history of the sport. If they miss the playoffs again by a few points, their story will become the stuff of Greek tragedies.

And then, finally, there’s Montreal, AKA Bizarro Land, where some actually fantasize about bringing back the GM who traded for Gomez, and signed Camalleri and Gionta, and where it falls well within the confines of etiquette and reason to set police cars on fire no matter what the results of a game. Every decision they make this season results in a worse team than the day before. Two more months and they’ll be having discussions about buy-outs and blowing it up. Except that it’s Montreal, so they’ll talk about Rocket Richard and then also put in a bid for Alex Semin.

Toronto and Montreal are both subject to the same temporary insanity we’re accustomed to with all large market teams. Philadelphia and New York act no saner. Theirs are systems with tyrant leaders, whose intuition is treated as scripture, whose credibility in the old boys’ world of hockey is capital. That Buffalo now aspires to be one of this group is just amazing. Let them sit at the popular kids’ table and eat each other alive.

If it wasn’t for Boston, who right now are basically invincible, the Northeast would be the most schizophrenic, irrational, hopelessly lost in all of hockey. And as Ottawa enters the 2nd year of their accelerated rebuild, we should pause and give thanks. They’ll be right where they are now as our window of contention opens, living their perpetual crisis. I can’t wait for it.

We complete our Turris trade reactions with the creamy middle

James

Release the Krackhead…BOOOOOOOOOOOM

I am warming up to this trade I suppose. A huge part of such warming comes with the fact that the trade DONE been made and there’s no undoing it now so might as well think of some of the potential. If you take into account a lot of the prospects looking to move up next season it almost seems like the Sens have two whole sets of teams in the works let alone just a log jam at defense (keeping in mind that Filatov was just sent back to CCCP Srebrenica and DaCosta demoted), the Sens have bodies. I think there’re a lot of exciting players in the mix and logically there’s not room for urrybody. Someone, someone likely very good, was going to get flipped at some point and we as fans would do our jobs and get angry. The real rub of this situation (and I mean in a bad way) is the pedigree and potential of the guy who got flipped. I think if we fans were a week ago leaked the knowledge that a Sens rookie was on the move and asked to make a list of most likely to be traded at the top and least likely at the bottom Rundblad would be more certain to be found in the basement than THIS GUY. Listen, it HURT to hear Rundblad was gone. I got a text from Steven walking down Rideau street and was literally stopped dead in my tracks by the news. I was just saying to someone on Friday night that after attending a few games the last couple of weeks that it appears that once Rundblad can start making his decisions just a split second earlier he could approach Karlsson heights of dominawesomeness. Similar to the Filatov situation before him, I don’t think I’m alone in having the notion that we barely got half a look at the kid’s game. Gone is the organization’s prime prospect AND A Pick. And a pick. You guys, is this the worst or is it not necessarily the worst?

Some people are saying this is Murray cow towing (does ANYONE know what that means? Sound off in the comment section or @wtyky with answers/suggestions) to a playoff push. What? I don’t really see acquiring Kyle Turris as that at all. I think that the deficiency at centre has been the most talked about issue of this season (and the off season: see our HOTTT preseason predictions in the achieves for more! Or don’t!) and Murray has been upfront in communications with the media that he was still looking to add a top 6 forward via trade. Yes, Foligno has been filling in admirably at centre and yes Regin is back and YES DaCosta and Zibanejad (who’s 18 btw) are waiting in the wings but I don’t really believe most NHL GMs think about things like this. I think Murray might see it more as…

1. By around this time last year Spezza was juuuuust about ready to shut ‘er down for an extended period on the IR which saw the team win ONE motherfucking game in a month without him.
2(a). Peter Regin cant even take draws right now because his shoulder has been reconstructed using melted down California Raisins figurines.
2(b) He has a winger who just took TWO knee on knees in a couple days potentially taking draws against the likes of Malkin/Staal, anyone on the Bruins, Scott Gomez (KIIIIIIIIIIIIDDIIIIIIIING but you get the idea)…Im sorry but …yikes
3. Zibanejad looking really awesome but far from ready at 18 years old. Maybe they want to give him 2 years to develop. No need to rush him…like Kyle Turris was uhhh…moving on… Ottawa needed more depth at centre for sure just hot holy shit that was a spicy toaster strudel of a price tag. One sunny side I will offer up about the pain of seeing a 2nd round pick – and this is coming from the guy who has said all year, ‘do what you gotta do Murray just DON’T SURRENDER PICKS, is that … by trade deadline, that pick will be recovered. Right Kuba!?

A lot of bandwidth has been spent on the “Emergence of Jared Cowen” being the impetus of this trade. YOWZERS I hope that’s not the case. That would be on some “what have you done for me lately” type shit that saw Da Costa getting thunderous applause at the introductions at the home opener for scoring one goal and Gonchar and Kuba getting booed for playing poorly in the first week. In the coming years I think we’ll see, as we are seeing now, that Cowen isn’t some Phillips/Carks style shutdownbot 3000. The kid was told to “contribute more offensively” in his last year at Spokane and posted 48 points in 58 games up 18 from a still respectable 30 in 59 the previous season. The kid’s not just a bulldozer, he’s got a little swag. Maybe the organization has more faith in Weircioch than we realize. Maybe this has less to do with blue line mobility and more to do with leaving the offense to King K, Cowen, maybe one other (Gonchar sticking around?) and looking more to bolster the CRYSTAL CLEAR defensive lapses the team suffers from with the likes of Lee, Borowecki, Gryba, Blood…I don’t know. Im just saying…maybe in the end they sold high on….well, an incredible asset.

That said: Maybe they sold stupidly low. I think one of the most painful things in the inevitable comparisons in years to come is that even if Turris works out well, we WILL be forever a touch burned on this trade. In that all Sens fans that are smart and good looking and have the same opinion as me, know that Rundblad is going to be amazing. It will always suck to see him excelling on another team a la Brooks Laich…but maybe more so.
The Filatov debacle is still smarting like …I don’t know…getting kicked in your area by Condoleezza Rice? And this feels like this situations could be Filatov on steroids. To get burned AND lose Rundbald will be…well it will be Bryan Murray’s retirement party no doubt.

So it seems Murray paid up to win the Turris sweepstakes. I suppose that unlike Filatov there were actually sweepstakes to obtain him…so that’s nice. Also unlike Filatov, Turris, I think is a lock for the top 6, more ice time, is not a flight risk and will more opportunity to play, though for his sake I hope they integrate him slowly as there will be a need for some adjustment time. Go easy in the meantime everyone. At least the Sens will improve in the shootout.which should come in handy when Auld is in net. OHHHH and Turris will reportedly be wearing number 7. Sound off in the comment section whether you think this is MORE delicious or LESS delicious than him wearing number 91.

Here we go…

Varada

Most of my thoughts are documented in that hate-tastic rant from the weekend. (And you know I’ve got to hate something to post on a weekend.) But I’ve had a couple of days to think about it, to weigh some of the excellent opinions and reactions on the web, and to consider my position from new perspectives. And yeah. I still hate this trade.
 
I’m excited to see Turris. I’m glad I availed myself of that Groupon for Sens tickets, because now I get to see him in action on Thursday. (Side note: was this trade all a way to sell more Groupons?) Nothing against the kid, center depth is important, and I’ve said all year that it’s only a matter of time before Spezza spends at least a few games hurt, and I’m not sold on Regin as a 20 minute a night man, at which time you either recall DaCosta (playing pretty well in the AHL, by the way) or play Zack Smith as your first line center. So we have options now that we didn’t before. And this is good.
 
But if there was any year that could be sacrificed in the name of having a truly terrifying team 2-3 seasons from now, it’s this one. Yeah, Cowen is playing great, and Karlsson is the new sliced bread. But that doesn’t mean there’s no room for Rundblad. It means you can roll a solid defence without having to play your top pairing to death.

As for the whole thing about Gonchar and Kuba coming back…really? Gonchar and Kuba who everyone has been mentally trading in their head from the moment they were brought in? Or maybe one of the best prospects in the game should have been traded because Phillips was re-signed? Ugh.
 
This is a huge risk. Massive. And it might work out, but we don’t even really have a sense of what “working out” looks like. If Turris puts up, what, 30 points, how will we feel? I have hopes for this trade, but the value just doesn’t seem right.

I Hate Hate Hate Hate Hate This Trade: A Totally Measured Reaction To the Turris / Rundblad Trade

Image

One good thing about this trade: TSN dusts off the ol’ “Capital Gain” headline.

Okay, so let’s take the following epithets: “Build from the net out.” “Slow and steady rebuild.” “Five year plan.” And put those in a basket and then just sort of pitch them flaming into the night sky. Because the dream scenario of having three elite defensemen capable of playing 20+ minutes a night, playing solid two-way hockey, and driving the offense for years, of combining them with solid goaltending, and of complementing them with available and affordable 20-goal scorers, is now null. 

It’s not that I don’t agree that the team has its share of depth on the backend, or that forward depth is a priority, or that Cowen and Karlsson are both working out wonderfully, or that the options for the 2nd line center pivot in Zibanejad, DaCosta and Regin are seriously lacking at the moment. It’s just that this isn’t the right time to trade a bluechip prospect, isn’t the maximum yield for that trade, and isn’t the right time for the franchise to be taking on more risk.

It’s the Vermette situation all over again: a good player, who you know you can turn into an asset that will help the team, is flipped in the name of winning now. Like the Vermette trade, this could burn Ottawa in a big way.

Remember where Karlsson was halfway through his first season? Sent down to the AHL for some conditioning, looking small and overmatched, he showed flashes of offensive brilliance but was thought to be a player who might only be used selectively. And if he turned out to only be a powerplay specialist, no one would have minded if he were traded at the time for a player who could “help the team now.” After all, the team had yet to admit that it couldn’t compete. The playoffs were in sight.

And thank god that never happened. Karlsson’s value is now at its height, and he’s a cornerstone of a team rebuild. All the more reason why Rundblad might have become expendable, but two questions:

1) Why trade Rundblad now, after a third of a season, when in a season or two he might be at his most valuable? You’d think Karlsson now might get more than just a Turris-like reclamation project. If Rundblad comes anywhere close to Karlsson’s current state, one thinks he might have gotten much more.

2) Why trade the pick that turned into Tarasenko for Rundblad only to trade Rundblad two seasons later for a player looking less likely to succeed than Tarasenko? If this club is lacking in offense, the players available at the time of the draft might have provided the same services, and without two or three seasons of wasted development.

There’s no doubt that Turris is an elite prospect – or, at least once was – but Ottawa shouldn’t be taking these kinds of risks at this point in the rebuild. Rundblad was as close to a sure thing as you could get. And he’s traded, well before he reaches full value, for a lottery ticket. It’s almost as if the team is caught up in being a bubble team and is fantasizing about that sweet playoff revenue. Gotta pay for that scoreboard, I guess.

Oh yeah, and they needed to throw in a second round pick! Which could very well turn into a very high pick if the team plays more like people expected them to! Perfect.

You know what? Buffalo sucks. They just suck.

Varada

Buffalo is one point above Ottawa in the standings, despite spending $15M more than them in salary. And despite often taking the rebuilding Sens to task and just generally eking out some wins to stay in the playoff picture, they’re a team absolutely nobody in the Eastern Conference fears meeting in the playoffs. In 2010 they were talked about as if they were a powerhouse division champions (in a mediocre division), third in the conference, and Boston took care of them like they were bringing a suit to the dry cleaners. It was never in doubt. In 2011, Philadelphia beat them in seven in what seemed to me to be one of the most one-sided seven game series I’d ever watched. Two straight first round exits. Before that they missed completely.

Somehow this team gets talked about the way a child is encouraged by a room full of relatives to believe that he is truly unique, talented, and bound for success. But there’s never been a time watching them I’ve felt like, despite all of their depth, that they played with anything resembling passion, or even a system. They routinely attempt lazy breakouts; the forwards cycle around their own blue line and wait for the puck; their inability to stick up for their goaltender has been well documented. They’ll pull off one beautiful play a game (last night’s tic-tac-to second goal against Ottawa was amazing, I admit it) and the rest of the time it’s like they’re in a skills competition. It must drive Sabres fans crazy.

The blame for this has to be on Lindy Ruff, who’s coached them since 1745. In fact, if ever there was an example of institutional malaise in place, it’s the Ruff / Regier regime, whose idea of putting this team over the top is Ville Leino and Christian Ehrhoff. They’ve got six forwards making at least $4M, and a couple of guys on their third line making between $2.5M-$3.5M. We’ve already seen a half-dozen coaches fired, and if Bruce Freaking Boudreau can be fired by the Caps, then Ruff can be fired by Buffalo. They’re spending the money. And this is still the pillow-soft team we’ve seen year after year. They’ll get killed in the first round again this year. “Unless Miller can steal it for them!” goes the refrain, and I’m sure Miller must be getting tired of being thrown under the bus. A team spending $67M in salary should not hope that their goalie steals them a series.

James

“It’s funny how money change tha situation.” President Glenn Beck said that. In previous seasons when the Sabres were just that sort of middling bunch of hamburger clowns expectations seemed way different. Having a good shot at the playoffs was a great thing for them. Yes, they’ve always had some good players but they were always of that “Connolly, Vanek, Pomminville” variety, meaning: Good players but totally beatable. For a long time now, I wouldn’t go as far as to say that Buffalo has been an opponent I don’t respect but damned if I didn’t see them as the “get in Ryan Miller’s kitchen and there’s a 90% chance of victory” house of cards of a team. Even in the blurst of times its felt like the Sens had a real chance at 2 points against them. Now that Rich Uncle Pennybags has bought the Sabres and the 2011 UFA market with them…things are different for Buffalo. They have this team of high skill mercenaries that for the price tag you would almost HAVE to expect the world from. And we know, Ville Leino is going to be an awesome player when he’s a second line scorer on the Flyers but he aint gonna get you deep in the playoffs. Ditto Christian Ehrhoff. Great guy to have in your hockey pool but last night, Colin Greening, who played in the US College system a little over a year ago, got 6 shots past him. Greening putting up Ovechkin numbers of shots against an average Buffalo team? Rough night for the blue line but when they are against a guy who is making that “remember when Heatley was making 10M per year here and a 39 goal year was completely unacceptable” money? You’ve gotta be sweating watching that. Some of those paycheques they have going change everything. Now that we are in the rebuild I see more than ever that I’d rather have an underperforming Peter Regin than an underperforming Scott Gomez. Its hard to avoid of course as Gomez is a former 80+ point guy and a cup champ and Regin is from a country known more for the exports of Lego and pastries than hockey players but those kind of contracts have nearly set players up for failure. In a cap world…try to save that kind of money for generational talent if you can spot it.

To be honest, the Sabres now remind me of the Sens that recently had to be dismantled. Some dangerous players here and there … a little too much money distributed all around making it impossible for team to live up to expectation, too much reliance on one player and if they don’t measure up…they become the scapegoat (Spezza for us, Miller for them). There’s a fair amount of skill on the team but not the kind that has the opposition shaking in their shoes during warmup. Buffalo’s play last night reminded me a little of the “Let’s waste our power play cycling so we can see if Kovalev can fart something cool looking” stuff that had me ripping up my program in frustration watching at SBP. Management wise, Buffalo seems to share the Pre-rebuild Sens’ trademark combination of complacency AND tinkering that had us all calling for Murray’s head last year, though maybe Buffalo has a little more going in the way of young guns getting ice time than the Sens did a few years back.

Speaking of management, I don’t know what Lindy Ruff has pictures of D’Arcy Regier doing but it must be even HOTTER than whatever Bryan Murray has pictures of Melnyk doing! Same set of pictures maybe? But seriously ladies and germs, that guy has enjoyed a more secure tenure than Noam Chomsky at MIT!  *bows and falls on face, while curtain closes over my corpse to everyone’s delight* As Sens fans we know it’s a dangerous game when you have entrenched management, a lot of high priced players (more than a few of them very good) and a perennial “good shot at making the playoffs.” It can lead to some real dragon chasing that can leave you waking up from a few seasons’ too long bender wondering where your pizza line went and what the hell Kovalev’s clothes are doing all over your floor while he’s singing Maroon 5’s “Moves like Jagr” in the shower. As a fan of a divisional rival, I say, keep chasing that dragon Buffalo! Maybe we’ll see you in the upcoming McCain Delicio Rising Crust Pizza Presents New Mediterranean Style Vegetarian Presents Eastern Conference Sector B Playoffs! Don’t run Miller out of town in the meantime!

The Filatov Experiment Ends, for Some Reason

What a fizzle. In a rebuild year, when you would think this team could afford to gamble on the development of a supremely talented player with incredible pedigree, Nikita Filatov was played on the fourth line with Zenon Konopka as his center, given ten minutes of ice time a game, demoted to the AHL twice, healthy scratched numerous times, and now, finally, is being loaned to the KHL, where Senators management has little hope of monitoring his development or deriving any value whatsoever for the third round pick sacrificed to bring him in.

I don’t know, maybe he’s a coke dealer? What other explanation can there be for the fact that Colin Greening starts game after game on Spezza’s wing–even after going on a mind-numbing cold streak–and Filatov is summarily dismissed by team and fan base alike or lacking the finer points of the game? I can accept that perhaps he hasn’t bought into the system enough. I can accept that his attitude might need an adjustment. I know he needs to get stronger, both with and without the puck. He’s not where he needs to be yet. But if he’s still a prospect, how is this not expected?

Multiple sources are reporting that Ottawa plans to qualify him when his entry-level deal expires after this season, but realistically, what signals have been sent that there’s a place for this high-end prospect on the Ottawa Senators’ roster? Do you get the sense that Filatov has been extended even a fraction of the trust the team’s own picks have received?

It seems already that there are players who have earned the benefit of management’s doubt, and Filatov is just not one of them. There might be plenty of reasons why this is the right decision. But hopefully some measure of communication is extended to Senators fans, who were excited to see what an infusion of skill might bring to a team who is still one Michalek or Spezza injury away from basically getting shut out every night.

Is the Heatley deal actually paying dividends for Ottawa?

The Ottawa Sun earned a lot of respect during that period for their nuanced, measured response to a contentious issue.

I don’t think there’s much debate that at the time of the Dany Heatley deal, Ottawa was thoroughly fleeced. Heatley was a prennial all-star, a cornerstone of the franchise, and the perfect trigger-man for the team’s other big-ticket player, Jason Spezza.

The return was underwhelming, if not quite Luongo-for-Bertuzzi bad. Milan Michalek was seen as a good all-around player with pedigree, albeit one with injury concerns and signed on a contract that escalated each year. Jonathan Cheechoo was a good team player but a reclamation project, and was soon given up on. (His buy-out cap hit is still on the books in 2011-2012.) The 2nd round pick was useful insofar as it got the team some deadline assistance, but is long-gone. In return, San Jose received a bona fide scorer, even if he couldn’t replicate his 50 goal days playing alongside one of the league’s best playmakers.

I still remember the day the trade came down, and thinking there was no way Murray would have agreed to such a lopsided return. Then, as is usually the case with Twitter, the story was verified by about 700 additional people, and I went for beers.

It’s all about timing, and the fact that Ottawa’s window of contention was slammed shut that much faster while San Jose went to two Conference Finals in a row will always skew this trade in the Sharks’ favor. We also can’t ignore that Cheechoo cost Ottawa millions without bringing much in the way of value.

But two seasons later, and the deal isn’t looking quite so horrible anymore. Milan Michalek has really come into his own this season. At a very reasonable $4.3 million cap hit, he’s on pace for 47 goals and 67 points, and he plays in all situations. He’s becoming a leader, both on the ice and in the dressing room. And he’s a steadying presence no matter where he’s placed in the lineup, unlike Heatley, who was seen as someone who had to play with either Spezza or Alfredsson to make use of his ability to find open ice.

Dany Heatley, on the other hand, is on pace for 20 goals and 47 points, which would be a career low. He’s making a whopping $8 million this season, with a cap hit of $7.5 million. The thing is, Minnesota isn’t a high-scoring team, and Dany Heatley is still playing close to 20 minutes a night. They also happen to be tops in the league right now, sitting above the ultra-competitive Western Conference and playing stellar hockey.

Ottawa has earned its wins this season by overcoming its terrible defense and outscoring the competition. Minnesota has won through a stingy, system-wide defensive strategy. While Michalek has overtaken Heatley’s point-scoring potential, determining who is the better player, and thus who won the trade (2011-2012 Edition) has a lot to do with who has the better two-way game.

Michalek’s On-Ice CORSI rating is 6.50, with about 15 minutes of even-strength ice time a game. Reasonable, but not amazing, reflecting the tendency for Ottawa to give up a lot of shots. Heatley’s, however, is -10.08 with about the same amount of ice time. Part of this is Michalek’s unreal shooting percentage through the first half of the season (20%!). Part of it is just that Heatley, well…sort of stinks.

CORSI and point production aren’t the whole picture of course, but they are preliminary indicators. And if Heatley isn’t scoring, it also doesn’t look like his defensive game is making up for it. The Wild are winning despite Dany Heatley, not because of him, and with three years left on his deal one has to wonder if Ottawa got out from under a boondoggle of a contract. Which brings us to the other factor in Ottawa’s advantage, which is the cap space.

If you argue that the team’s run to the Finals in 2007 was an anomaly, and that they should have started a rebuild soon after because of Muckler’s mismanagement of prospects, then perhaps Heatley doesn’t even receive the contract offer from Ottawa. But he did, and the fact that they could move one of their big-ticket contracts is a huge plus. That San Jose chose to move that contract too is telling. Were Ottawa to try to move Heatley today, they might not have even landed what they got in 2009.

Ottawa’s performance over the last two or three seasons has been hugely disappointing, but it’s very gratifying to see a team with the sixth lowest payroll in the league overperform the way they are. Milan Michalek is a huge part of that process, and it took Dany Heatley to get him. Sens fans can take some comfort now in feeling like they may have come out ahead after so much of hearing how they were screwed.

On This Filatov Mess

If we let Nikita dye his hair, next thing you know Anton Chigur will cattle spike you in the brain. It's a dismal tide.

I’ve held off on commenting on the unfortunate situation developing around Nikita Filatov, if only because Ottawa has an equally unfortunate history of dumping on Russian players at the slightest notice of trouble. It lowers us to our basest demeanor, and I loathe to invite more “Shut up and go back to the KHL” nuance around one of our most talented prospects.

No one is promised a spot on the team: you have to earn it. That’s the mantra. To refrain from enforcing this principle is to subject the team’s system, its sense of identity, its very being to anarchy. This is roughly the logical equivalent of a politician’s position on ‘family values’ for fear of rampant violence, even if no one can agree on what the family values, or the violence, will look like.

My argument is that the risk inherent to showing what might be perceived as slight favoritism is much, much smaller than the risk of not allowing a high-pedigree, very skilled player the opportunity to prove himself, and thereby losing him to more lucrative contracts in his home country. Obvious point, maybe, but why exactly have we not seen Nikita Filatov on Ottawa’s powerplay? Why have we not seen him playing with Jason Spezza, which everyone and their brother predicted the moment news of the trade broke?

It’s also completely unclear what Filatov has done to earn himself such harsh skepticism. In his six games (out of 21) with the club, he’s only once received more than 10 minutes of ice time. His linemates have been Eric Condra and Zenon Konopka, which is like asking a surgeon to perform an appendectomy with a dump truck. He had one assist and was +1. Compare to Mika Zibanejad, who, having never played in the NHL, and at three years younger than Filatov, received three more games, about eight to 10 more shifts per game, and also had one assist but was a -3. Or Da Costa, who continues to play game after game, even though clearly out of his depth and now chronically underutilized. Granted, Zibanejad and Da Costa are centers on a team perilously shallow down the middle, but the fact remains that the Filatov has done everything asked of his teammates – and more, given they weren’t asked to go to the AHL, where Filatov now leads the team in goal scoring – and doesn’t seem to have earned the same respect or opportunities.

Maybe I’m just a fan of skill. As the team’s powerplay comes back to earth and the team’s 5-on-5 GF:GA ratio continues to sit somewhere in the bottom third of the league, I wonder why the team is so much more willing to give players like Nick Foligno the benefit of the doubt. (Hey, I like Foligno, this is more about giving other plays a chance than taking his away.) Filatov’s cup of coffee with the club didn’t last nearly long enough, if his fourth line minutes count at all, and already the team is struggling to create chances or get shots on net. As if creativity and offense isn’t exactly the reason Filatov was drafted 6th overall, and called the purest offensively gifted player available that year.

Now we have word that Filatov is meeting with Murray to discuss his future, and rumours that he’s considering a return to Russia to play in the KHL, where he’ll surely be paid better, be treated like a pro, and maybe even get to play some ice hockey from time to time. Does this kid in fact have an enormous attitude problem? Are there secret dangers that lurk beneath the surface of his game which endanger the entire system on which the Senators are currently surprising the league (err, by not being terrible)?

Or is the team as prone to their arbitrary preferences and prejudices as Senators fans can be? It’s a total mystery at this point what Bryan Murray’s motivations are, or their expectations for this player. Do they see him being a part of the club beyond this year? Why give up a third round pick if not? The trade for Filatov still has the potential to be a huge steal for Ottawa. It would be a shame if the team lost out on that opportunity for the sake of come nebulous concept of control.

UPDATE 12:46pm: James is a longwinded shithead that cant just let Varada make a point and be done with it.

James

I’m almost all the way with you on this one but there are a still a few issues for me. The DaCosta/Zibanejad thing is a different ball of wax (thing?) as you pointed out, both are centres, and I felt in my gut (science) the whole time that as an 18 year old Mika was going back to the land of Volvos and assemble it yourself cabinetry after 9 games. Which, who knows, may turn out to be far fewer games than Filatov will end up getting this season. If Filatov was a centre, I bet he’d be playing in Ottawa steadily. That said, I’m also a little confused as to why the kid’s hardly gotten top 6 time / much ice time at all in the games he’s been in. It makes me think that it is a bit of a waste of an asset to give up a 3rd rounder for a guy who as of right now is an AHL player. Considering we have a rookie 7th round pick on our first line and a (two time!) third rounder in net, quantity of selections can be just as important as quality especially during a rebuild.

Anyway, this whole Russian bias thing…do Ottawa fans really have it? Or do we just kind of have shithead fatigue? As far as Russians go, sure overall we hated Kovalev but we all loved us some Volchy Bear. I think both of those guys merited their fan sentiment. As for the Russian Sub in the room, Yashin…2 contract holdouts? That guy would have to be FROM Ottawa to earn more jeers for doing that. Basically he was the Russian Heatley (Heater probably holds the crown for the most hated Sen ever and is Canadian as McCain Deep and Delicious Cake despite being born in Germania). If perhaps there appears a bias in regards to Ottawa drafting Ruskies until the KHL transfer agreement unsketchifies itself, it’s just smart GMing to go easy on selecting our friends to the East in a post-Alexander Radulov paradigm. Note to Radulov: Congratulations on your recent winning of the Whatever the KHL Championship Cup Is Called CUP! The OTHER Svenska Mästare!
All this said, I more or less GET why Filatov might jet to the world’s 3rd best league for the reasons you outlined. Money, fame, home cooked borsht. It’s not an outlandish desire at all. I think its frustrating to be in a line of work where your career could end at any moment from an injury and you’re stuck in upstate New York making as much as a dude who sells speakers out of the back of a van (Note to dude: STILL waiting on those speakers, bro. I’m not MADE of waiting in this parking lot.) On the other side of the coin, it is still very early in the season. I remember wanting Butler to get called up so bad as he was tearing up the AHL and the Big Boy Sens couldn’t score to save their lives. When Butsy did get his shot (in I believe the second half of the season) he got the same start in the bottom 6 Filatov got only he had to wait much longer for it. The fact that this Filatov thing has gotten a little ugly pre-December is concerning. The leaking of his potential desire to go back to Russia (which he’s done once already in his short pro career btw) may very well end up serving as the nail in the coffin of his NHL career. Maybe Sens mangement have reason to believe that the kid is bolting at season’s end whether they give him 6 games or 60 games and don’t want to use an NHL roster spot to help him pad the prelim to his contract negotiations with CSKA Moscow. Especially so when it could come at the expense of the development of THE DOGMAN….who admittedly captured my heart long ago.

Another important area of concern is that MAYBE THIS KID IS A SHITHEAD. IIIIIIIIII’m not even totally sure I believe this  whole ‘Filly don’t do rebounds’ story and even if its not true or exaggerated, there’s red flags a plenty elsewhere, this kid has already been basically given away by a team that could probably use his offense more than any team in the league right now after picking him 6th, he was stripped of his captaincy of the Russian junior squad, apparently for being an entitled shithead – in the opinion of his Russian coach I might add, AND was read the riot act (along with Butler) by MacLean for dogging it during practice in Ottawa.

After suffering through a team that was clearly a terrible vibe last season, maybe the kid didn’t really turn over a new leaf after all and Murray and MacLean don’t really have time for it. Especially with a lot of eager kids with tons of talent in the pipe. In my opinion, even though I think Alex Ovechkin is the most beloved (sorry Crosby a lot peoples cant stands yuh) and marketable (bring back that amazing “Midnight Filings” ad) player in the league I agree that there is some defintie xenophobia toward Russian players in the NHL. Though I am sensitive to this, I don’t want to give Filatov a free pass because he’s Russian so much as I don’t want to stick up for Kyle Turris because he’s Canadian. Both are red flag/big gamble players to me. It’s a long season and I think Filatov (and/or his handlers) might have played their hand a little bit too early. Maybe they didn’t. I still very much want to see him play in the NHL for the Sens and I think he’s made a strong case since this controversy started. The question is: Is his sudden burst of productivity in Binghamton a good sign or a bad sign?

Best ECHL Team Logo

It’s part two of our ongoing series looking at team logos from the best, bat-shit craziest catalogue of hockey logos in history: the ECHL. Last edition we looked at three logos that were seriously well designed – the Chicago Express, the Las Vegas Wranglers and the Colorado Eagles. (Chicago Express won, despite, as someone pointed out, looking like a dildo.) Any you could imagine adorning the front of an actual NHL team’s jersey.

Today we travel to the absurd side of the spectrum. Which of the following three logos are the most gloriously weird? Which would make you swell with some strange, conflicted sense of pride and shame, were you to live in these places? Why are fish involved so goddamned much at the ECHL level?

Just a reminder: Craig Rivet plays in the ECHL! Seriously!