Varada

Thoughts on the new Sens 3rd jersey? All I really have to say is 1) finally this team’s marketing department took the no brainer move and gave people what they wanted, and 2) NO GOLD SPARKLES!

James

“This ones goin out to the haters/ the haters / the draw string haterrrrrrrrrrrrrzzzzzzz” – Snoopy Dogg Dogg Feat Dr. Dre Medicine Womyn
 
Its great. Its great. I, personally, like the draw string look alright. It might have to do with reading too many Olde Tyme Hockey Parchments and growing up in the 1950s but I find the draw
string trend…Could. Be. Worse. Could be a Burger King sash, mascot from a Disney movie sequel asymmetrically jumping through ice, a Phoenix Spirit Guides Decorative Pancho or an angry hockey puck with muscular arms that looks like the mascot of a tire rotation and balancing centre (readers korner: What OHL team am I talking about?). I can live with a draw string.
Honestly draw string haters of Ottawa, call off your dawgz this once! This jersey looks pretty awesome you cant deny this.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAnyway, Verada’s right that it seems like a welcome change that the Sens brass just did the easy thing: What the fans were clearly asking for…for years.
I think the internet is to thank for this. “You’re welcome” – Internet.com
I am starting to think this is going to be a rough season. I mean, the new scoreboard, the adorable attempt at a TV series, the nice new uniforms…either they are
trying to brace us for a bumpy ride or they are trying to make up for bad decisions.
I don’t really get bent out of shape over the gold sparkles. The sparkles have been there since the beginning. Through the good times and the bad. Speaking of reflecting on bad times,
these actions are giving me a hopeful outlook on the future dealings of the Sens apparel. What gives me this sense of optimism? The Buffalo Sabres. This poor
fan base has been kicked around time and again in terms of what they have to look at on the ice. Oh sure there’s the infamous Buffaslug but lest we forget that black Dominic
Hasek era angry Buffalo head or what I think to be one of the most underappreciated shitty uniforms ever http://www.goldenliterature.com/Pics/Sabres-Jersey-Old.PNG  (check that CHEST HAIR VENT!)
Did the Buffalo brass, who I imagine simply to be J. Jonah Jamieson, just chomp down on his cigar and say “Im not changing GAHT DAMN THING…NOW GET ME
SPIDERMANG ON LINE 2…AND GET ME DUCKULA WHILE IM WAITING!”? The answer is yes AND no. He did ask for Spiderman(g) and Duckula (RIP) but he also
realized the err of his ways. TOO MUCH TINKERING….CAUSED BY BAD BABYSITTING!. He went back to the original glorious uni and color scheme. Miracles (oops complete bastardization of that word!) can happen! It’s clear this time around Senscorp didn’t over think the shit out of it. Ugh. It makes me think of the Poochie (RIP) episode of The Simpsons where a boardroom of people are designing
the character…I think the meeting at SBP went a little something …………………………………..like this:

Glenn: “Guys, I want to sign off on this as much as the next person but I have to jump in and say SENS looks a little too much like SNES the acronym for Super Nintendo Entertainment System. Isn’t a bit weird to put a nickname on an official NHL product?”

Sally: “Ahhh, but that’s the subtle genius of it Glenn. According to our latest polling data Senators or ‘SENS’ fans aged 6 to 60 overwhelmingly prefer Super Nintendo to both the Sega CD AND Atari Jaguar platforms! Now, can we Flying Squirrel Clownify the insides of those arms by say 25-30%”
 
Bob: “Absolutely, more weird stripes on the inside. I’d also like to blue sky the idea of embroidering the Gladiator (RIP) who almost completed that stirring speech at the opening of the 2008 playoff game instead of
numbers on the back.”

Sally: “Okay, we’re way ahead of schedule here but this has nevertheless been a long month of meetings. I think we could all use a breather. Would anyone care to join me in another belt of scotch?”
 
All: “Yes”
 
Bob: “And I trust we’re going with “Back in Black” for the promotion campaign slogan/music right? Now that is a song people don’t hear ENOUGH. We’ll see if we can get Chez 106 to start playing it sometimes. It’s clever too because the Sens are BACK after being somewhere”
 
Glenn: “Of COURSE were going with that…its like…TWO things!”
 
Sally (into the intercom) “More scotch, Crystal!”
 
All: “Cheers! To being the smartest!”
 
Me “Sad Charlie Brown Music”
 
(Last names withheld to protect anonymity)
 
Anyway, hoping this leak is for realzies and that this is the new 3rd jersey. Team will be lookin sharp. Can’t wait to see one in person.

Varada

You’re right about those sparkles. They’ve been around since the beginning, and this we SHOULD NOT ignore. All those years when this team was loaded and could not get past the 2nd round of the playoffs / the Toronto Maple Leafs, all those years when it was blamed on a lack of leadership / grit / Gary Roberts / goaltending (Lalime’s sensational playoff numbers cry out in agony once more), all those years when we wondered how a team so deep it had Martin Havlat on its 3rd line could have such abysmal depth, maybe we should have said “Maybe it’s the sparkles?”
 
I guess what I’m saying is that this new uniform all but guarantees that we win the Stanley Cup this year.
 
I also love the new uniform. It is – ironic purchasing of old ’94 jersey on ebay aside – the first ACTUAL jersey I want to buy, even when I’ve very generously been offered an off-the-back-of-a-truck game-worn genuine replica Chris Kelly away jersey.
 
SIDE QUESTION: who the hell are you going to get on the back of this jersey? NO JOKE ANSWERS; THIS BLOG IS ABOUT SERIOUS ANALYSIS AND NOT THE PLACE FOR JOKES:
Antoine Vermette
Bahbeeleebooo Bhuhtlaahhhhrrrrgh
Tim Thomas
Game of Thrones
Nikita Filatov (the ‘O’ can be prised off and replaced with the logo of whatever KHL team he’s playing for next season)
Craig ‘Jesus Christ’ Anderson / just a picture of that monster roadster from his helmet
Daniel Alfredssson

Pete

To be perfectly honest (see: assface) not crazy about this look.

Seems like it’s trying a bit too hard to be retro. (Maybe that’s the point dumbass? Shut up, no Christmas while I’m typing!) I like the subtlety when teams go for the tribute or homage if you will, by adding slight retro touches. My opinion is that if you’re going to keep it retro, go light on the retro-ness. Striped socks anyone? Cooperall pants anyone?

The giant O leaves them open (ha!) to league wide ridicule, to wit:
The Ottawa NuvaRings (look it up…or don’t)
The Ottawa striped orgasms
The Ottawa inflamed o-rings
The Ottawa shrimp rings
The ringworm line (don’t look it up!)

I will only accept this jersey if they all wear old school brown, beaten up gloves and put a shit tonne of dapper dan in their hair.

Jersey I would purchase? Konopka

Prianka

After the ‘SENS’ jersey debacle, there was no where to go but up so saying that I am a fan of the new jersey is not much of a compliment. I really like that they went with a heritage jersey to mark 20 years of the franchise, although it makes you wonder what they will do for the 30th, etc years. I like that this one is a lot cleaner than the ones we’ve been seeing for the last few years (gold sparkles were the worst! It made me wonder who’s 13 year old daughter was helping design the jerseys), and they have also avoided having random and excessive stripes and blocks everywhere.

With about two months to go before training camps and a plethora of one-way contracts in place, the Ottawa Senators lineup is mostly set. We have a very different group from those lovable moppets who we watched crash and burn last year. This is a team with a lot of X factors, questions marks, grey areas, and Romulan Neutral Zones.

Having predicted the team to make the playoffs last year, this year all I will only concede that if all of the planets align and a ziggurat lands from space, the team could surprise—though the same could be said of any team. More likely is that this team finishes bottom ten, at least, and perhaps even with another lottery pick. (Not necessarily a bad thing in this second year of a rebuild.) But we’re optimists here, and it’s only July! No need to piss in our beer just yet.  

So what are the factors that will determine the likelihood of a surprising playoff appearance?

Craig Anderson 

A couple of seasons ago Anderson faced about 40 shots  a game all season long and stole enough of them to carry a young, thin Colorado team into the playoffs. The quality of his support and the number of times he’ll have to single-handedly rescue everyone is unlikely to change, but can he do it again? He’s one season removed from being a legitimate starter with flashes of utter brilliance. The year in between was a disastrous mixture of injuries and tough luck. (Leclaire, anyone?) When he came over at the deadline from Colorado, he did the same for Ottawa, and they won more games than they lost—though not by much.

(Aside: now that the Avs have decided not to qualify Brian Elliott—who signed in St. Louis, who also traded for Lalime back in the day, so what the hell St. Louis?—that trade looks like a complete waste of time and resources. They couldn’t get a mid-round pick for a starting goaltender? And then they went and traded a 1^st and 2^nd rounder for Varlamov? Greg Sherman is panicking, and very publicly. Or does he know something that we don’t?) 

So, can Anderson steal every other game?

Chances this happens: 33.333% 

Rebounds for pretty much everyone

There weren’t many players on the 2010-2011 edition of the Ottawa Senators who had respectable years, but there were a few who were especially bad: Chris Phillips, Filip Kuba, and Sergei Gonchar (AKA 50% of the defensive core, and all of their veterans) Nick Foligno, and super especially Peter Regin, who had one of the worst seasons of any starter in the post-2007 Cup run era.  

Can Phillips (new contract!) still effectively shut down the league’s top players? How about Kuba, in the last year of his contract and looking for one last payday before retirement? Will Gonchar play better now that he doesn’t have Cory Clouston insisting that he wear his skates on his hands and tape his stick to his feet? Is Nick Foligno a top six forward or just a really nice guy? (See expectations for Peter Regin in the next point, below.) We don’t need these players to play at the top of their game, just to not have new worst-ever-seasons.

Chances this happens: Seven pairs of beady Tim Murray eyes out of ten. 

2^nd line center

Every year there’s an elusive unicorn that will address all of the team’s woes: puck moving defenseman, legitimate starting goaltender, scoring winger. Welcome to a salary cap league. This year it’s…a lot of things, but Ottawa’s depth down the middle is the most pathetic. After Spezza (see: injuries) this team has Stephane DaCosta, who should spend a year in the AHL, Mika Zibanejad, who was drafted about eight minutes ago, Zack Smith, Zenon Konopka and…ahem…Peter Regin. That’s Islanders-level depth right there. If Regin plays like he did last year, and Spezza spends any amount of time hurt, this is going to be a looooooooong season. 

Chances someone steps up: About the same as me throwing a football over those goddamn mountains.

Nikita Filatov 

Look, I’m about as psyched as anyone to get a player with such pedigree for a 3^rd round pick, and I don’t understand how anyone can congratulate Scott Howson for just “getting something for him.” This is the Blue Jackets for Chrissakes, the team who has had a top ten pick every single year of their existence except one and still can’t compete. Obviously they aren’t known for player development. I’m hoping Murray can get something from him just by virtue of him not having anything to do with Columbus.

Everybody already has Filatov penciled in next to Spezza. But let’s be realistic: the kid was being developed by the Blue Jackets, but he also couldn’t break the Blue Jackets. He even stank up their AHL team for a while. He’s young, and he needs a contract next season, so I think it’s possible, but unless he scores about 20 goals, he’s probably KHL bound for a boatload of money next year.  

Chances this happens: well, he’ll probably get all the ice time in the world. I’m gonna go straight up coin toss.

Injuries 

Ah, that great mysterious force that moves through the league like a ghost. I’d like to think that Leclaire used up all of Ottawa’s injuries for the next century, but this is a team with Gonchar (age: 80), Michalek (only three knees left!), Alfredsson (age: 82), Kuba (broke leg stepping onto ice), Spezza (threw out back lifting groceries), Anderson (40+ shots a game), and Regin (not very good at anything) on it. You know these guys will miss at least ten games apiece, and maybe much more.

Now I want you to imagine what a team without those guys on it will look like. I’m talking a first line of Bobby Butler and Nick Foligno centered by Zack Smith. Now imagine them playing against THE BRUINS. Oh god. It’s enough to make you want to curl up on the floor in your forthcoming heritage jersey and cry. We’ll need close to full seasons from all of our top players just to keep our heads above water. 

Chances this happens: We’re talking injuries. They happen. 0%

David Rundblad 

If David Rundblad can’t smuggle the plans for this space station to Mon Mothma, then all is lost.

Chances this happens: Probably not fair to expect it, but he’ll get his shot. I’d say about two bushels and a hen’s beak as the crow flies. 

—

So, there you have it: my rose-colored prediction for the coming year. Maybe it’s kismet, this team strikes some Binghamton Senators gold, plays for one another all season long, Band of Brothers style, and grits out enough wins to make life difficult for a higher seed. Maybe Matt Puempel comes out of absolutely nowhere and scores 77 goals. Maybe Murray finally listens to my voicemails and trades for Zach Parise. But it’s gonna be a longshot.

Varada

I’ll start by saying that we did a run through available UFAs way back when, and CCFR readers should check it out because it’s mostly still current. (Update: Brooks Laich re-signed in Washington for several more years of being talked about in trade rumors due to early playoff exits, otherwise known as Antoine Vermette, Ottawa Senators, 2003-2007.)
 
Assuming that Murray doesn’t stand pat – which he might – who are your top picks to see in a (/probably poorly designed retro third-)Sens jersey? My top three are Scottie Upshall, Steve Sullivan and Jason Arnott.

James

I find I have really embraced this rebuild thing. I’m not overly interested in the Senators (yeah, I’m going full name today) grabbing a free agent vet at forward. I know its not the safest idea but unless the Senators trade one of the current crop I think if they plug up a hole with a vet than it doesn’t give a forward prospect much of a shot. I really agreed with his prediction so I’m going to borrow DarrenM’s projected lines from over at SilverSevenSen(ator)s:
 
Michalek – Spezza – Butler
Foligno – Regin – Alfredsson
Condra – Z. Smith – Greening
X – Winchester – Neil
 
Island of Misfit Boys: Da Costa, Filatov, Zibanejad, O’Brien, Wick, Shannon…Daugavins?

I know that these guys definitely vary in terms of age, pedigree, experience and likelihood of playing full time in the bigs but looking at those names it makes me wonder if Murray plans to fill this ONE possible opening with an FA? It wouldn’t break my heart if they signed an awesome player like Scottie Upshall but it begs the question: Are the Sens letting (super cheap) Ryan Shannon walk and don’t plan to fill his spot with one of these guys, namely Filatov? In my mind, call me crazy but I think it’s at least arguable that Filatov is that top 6 winger Murray talked about landing. Okay, that’s a tad crazy but maybe shuffle Condra and Greening between the third and fourth lines, Foligno between the second and third and let Filatov and Butler battle it out for top 3 winger. Are we rebuilding or are we rebuilding? I think we saw the potential of putting a rookie finesse scorer (Butler) on Spezza’s wing. The sample size was small but Butler really showed he had the finish to roll with a player of Spezza’s caliber. A quick aside, what I loved most about Butler’s performance on the top line was how he scored a variety of goals. He didn’t always need a pretty feed to put one away. That nose for the net coupled with Butler’s comments about how he is really trying to raise up his defensive game to the NHL level makes me think Butler could be effective in the top six if not top 3. As for Filatov, if he is given the chance to get some time and I stress TIME not like half a period (im looking at you Cory “Kansas City Shuffler” Clouston) to play with Jason Spezza hopefully HOPEFULLY he can recapture the magic of playing a couple dozen games with centre that people have heard of Derek Mackenzie on the powerhouse Blue Jackets.
If there is an FA i would really like to see the Senators land it would be Ty Conklin. Backup goaltender thats where the real hole in the lineup is. I wonder if Barry Brust is ready? Kind of terrifying but I want Robin Lehner to be undisputed no. 1 in Bingo. 

Pete

I think Ottawa should definitely be targeting a second line centre cause based on James’ and Silver Sens line breakdown that has to be one of the worst collection of middle men in the league. I’m all for finding a backup goalie but I dunno about these guys.

Who that person might be? I’m not sure, they don’t have to be flashy. I know a top six, goal scoring center doesn’t grow on a vine, so how about targeting a veteran face-off guy and explain to him going in that he’s probably going to play on a bunch of different line combos. Sometimes I think the concept of top 6 is GM speak intended to let vets know they have a little more stature in the room via the media. Kinda like putting an A on someone’s sweater ya know?

I’m tempering my expectations with Filatov, it’s not like he hasn’t had chances, even the Russian national team is down on this guy so you know it’s not culture clash. I hope things work out for the kid, I really do. But if he usurps Condra or Greening for ice time, well I wouldn’t fault them for sowing a little dissention in the locker room.

Either way in Murray I trust.

Ottawa traded up to draft this adorable chipmunk.

Varada

At the risk of sounding like a complete fanboy, I’m thrilled with this draft. With Murray having solidified his prospect depth on the backend, he was free to draft forwards, and we received scorers in bunches. Obviously Noesen was a surprise to some (and Zibanejad over Couturier also tweaked people a bit), but trading up to take Puempel was a pleasant surprise, as was the trade for Filatov. I didn’t think Murray had any interest in players whose skills are built solely around scoring goals. But with Filatov, Butler, and Puempel in the system I like the odds of one of them turning into a 20 goal man.

And let’s talk about Filatov. People are saying things about risk, but to me this was an absolute steal. You think about all of the work that goes into assessment during the draft – something we should obviously be well aware of after this year – and all of the work Columbus did in coming to the decision to use a 6th overall pick on this guy, and only three years later he can be got for a 3rd rounder? A 22 year old with that kind of pedigree gets less than, say, Chris Kelly at the deadline? I understand that he might go the KHL in a worst-case scenario, but I’d take that risk any day. He needs to grow up a little, maybe, but at 22 I’d be willing to put him in a different system and see if it takes. Maybe after being traded he’ll wake up a little bit and buy into the program. I’m really excited to see what a line with Spezza, Michalek and Filatov might look like.

I’m a bit surprised that a goaltender wasn’t drafted, as Murray explicitly said that he would draft one to drive Lehner’s development – someone to chase, someone chasing him. I guess it was a weak draft for (chicken)tenders.

Pete

Holy snaps, remember when we all wanted Murray out of town? That dude can draft.
I’m not sure if its his reliance upon a couple of key scouts or if he’s got this Charles Xavier thing going on where he wheels (pardon the pun) and deals and boom, next thing you know January Jones is wearing retro lingerie… By that I mean other gm’s are playing checkers and Murray is straight up playing chess. (mmm sexy mixed metaphor, or sexaphore, if you will)

I liked the emphasis on size and scoring, They passed on Couturier because he just wasn’t big enough and like the edge Mika plays with. I think this draft completes the overall strategy of having the mini puck movers on the back end and more power forwards up front. I still think they’re going to get pushed around quite a bit next year, but if you think of these moves within the context of a year into a five year rebuild, I believe they are ahead of schedule.

About Filatov, Every GM agrees this was a steal on paper. My biggest concern is that this kid comes in displays his brilliance during camp, makes the team then settles into bad habits. This could be a tough challenge to throw your new coach. I’m afraid his attitude will be tolerated which sends a horrible message to your kids who you bring in to grind and work for everything. It will be interesting to see how much the new staff tolerates.

One final mind blowing note, both giant US sports news sites, ESPN and SI.com lauded the moves made by B. Murray. You know when the American papes are dapping you up, you did well!

James

“We’ve been pumping Bryan Murray’s tires all draft long and we haven’t heard him say one good thing about us yet” – ESPN & Sports Illustrated
 
Remember when Roberto Luongo said something like that and on TV no less? AAAAAAAAAdorable.
 
Speaking of remembering, remember in our pre-draft round up how I said “I hope they only go for high risk, high ceiling forwards aaaaaaaaaaall the live long day” (slight paraphrase). So one could say I’m pleased that what I wanted to happen, happened.

Zika Mibanejad: Okay, so the Sens didn’t take the projected no.6 Shawn Couturier. Something occurred to me after the maple leaf special (late season improvement in play after being mathematically knocked out of the playoff race), when it became clear that the Sens were not going to hit the absolute bottom of the league but were likely going to land in the bottom ten. I thought that Bryan Murray was entering a bit of a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation. A situation that could easily come about from not picking in say the top 3 but rather the top 10, particularly in a draft like this one was. What I’m talking about is the strong likelihood that a team is going to get a Jeff Skinner or Logan Couture guy. The type of player that people weren’t talking about like a slam dunk on draft day but ends up really excelling in relation to their rookie peers. By passing on Couturier and taking Zibanejad, Murray will either end up look like a genius or a goat. Since neither player has skated on NHL ice I am very into them picking Zibanejad. He rose to the #2 ranking among European prospects and with the Sens Euro …oh who am I kidding Swedish scouting being what it is I trust whatever justification went into choosing MZ. As a fan of the Ottawa Senators, with the recent selection of Jared Cowan you can see how a prospect’s stock can plummet given injury or illness (Cowan had knee surgery – the Michalek special) and mono, which made him appear sluggish to many scouts through the season of his draft and at the WJC. Maybe the same thing happened to Couturier who was also suffering from Mono during the season. I think no. 6 was actually a pretty tough pick – especially given the blow that came with losing 5th spot to New Jersey- I am very excited about the selection and am mentally prepared for the top ten guys to exceed expectations and others to underwhelm over the coming years. And I do mean years ….remember Stamkos’ first season vs. second season? Also, remember that guy Jonathan Tavares? Guy is layin LOW. Im not saying he sucks or hes a bust or anything…just so, so, so hard to live up to that kind of hype right away, esp with the shit team he was drafted by. In closing, the name Zibanejad is awesome. 
 
Stefan Noesen: A forward? From Texas? Comparisons to Corey Perry? Cool! 
 
Matt Puempel: This guy is pretty exciting. More of what I was talking about above with that injury dropping a player’s draft value. I think that this pick has the potential of ending up being a big time steal. I watched him play some impressive games a couple times against the 67s on an otherwise flaccid Peterborough Petes. I kept hearing rumblings all season about him being the lone spark lighting it up on a pretty bad squad and that he might go high in the draft. Then alas, a bad hip injury curtailed his season. But fear not friends he was fixed up by the same surgeon who operated on Mario Lemieux (!!!!) AND Pascal Le….claire…..uh…okay moving on! I wanted high risk and got it. He was an OHL sophmore this past season so time is on the kid’s side. I hope he bounces back and that his development is not hampered (doiobviously). As the third of three 1st round picks for me, the pressure’s off this kid to turn heads in a hurry. Take your time young man. Glad the Sens took a chance. 
 
Shane Prince: All my moaning about the San Jose Shanks poaching all of the Ottawa 67s best players comes to an end. After failing to take Tyler Taffoli and Ryan Martindale I was very happy to see Prince get selected by Ottawa. I became a fan of Prince this season and judging by all the Prince jerseys at the Civic Centre I wasn’t alone. The only knock is that because it’s so easy to get seats up very close at 67s I have to take issue with Prince’s 5’11 billing. He looked considerably smaller than one inch under 6 foot to me and that was on a rink full of juniors. But anyway, its NHL 8.0 so…go for it Shane! 
 
The Guy From the Olympiques & the other picks: Cool…obviously its time to talk about Nikita Filatov. 
 
Trading for Nikita Filatov: Okayyyyyyy put some extra ketchup on that shit and shit. I had read about Filatov to Ottawa rumors all season deep on message boards. I was hoping they were true but they just felt so Eklund make believe land. Why would Columbus give up one of their most highly touted prospects before he’s barely had a chance at the NHL level? When I read that the deal had gone down I could not believe it! But then I remembered that the Blue Jackets are literally the worst team in the NHL at developing talent. Seriously, one round of the playoffs in franchise history and all they have to show for it is Rick Nash, Pascal Leclaire’s groin and the Ghost of Steve Mason? Anyway, about the kid’s ‘tude… I don’t know, its 50/50 for me. We just endured 2 seasons of master of ‘tude Alex Kovalev after his apprentice Dany Heatley jumped ship just prior to that. I think Peter makes a really good point about what MacLean and Co will let slide with all these kids but  Filatov for a 3rd rounder? Fucking 50 bucks on black. Also, not getting along with Ken Hitchcock to me is like not getting along with John Tortarella…as in… looks like a hard guy to get along with. Especially as a young offensive player on a team as consistently terrible as Columbus.  I think if he’s given top 6 minutes maybe even top 3 and delivers the scoring punch we all know he has those criticisms might melt away. I saw him play in person once at the now famous Canada-Russia game at the WJC in 2009. I remember during the game daydreaming about how awesome it would be to see the Sens one day have an exciting kid like that on the roster. Frigging crazy that I’m actually going to see how that plays out.

We’re in that weird flux between the end of the playoffs and the beginning of the draft – simultaenously the  most and least significant period for hockey clubs. Meaning we’re still mired in speculation, but at least this speculation has the flavor of possibility given all the interviews and articles which are reporting on basically nothing.

Interesting article in today’s Ottawa Citizen:

As well all know, and knew days in advance of the official announcement, Paul MacLean is the Ottawa Senators’ new head coach. In the days following the unofficial announcement by the Ottawa Sun (who always arrive prematurely, if you know what I’m saying), we’ve heard the overwhelmingly positive analysis – i.e. he’s been a part of a winning team, he commands respect, he’s a former NHL player, he’s a player’s coach, he’s a communicator, he has a moustache – and a few grumblers – he’s never been a head coach in the NHL, he…has a moustache. This post isn’t meant to fall on either side, but directly through the middle, into the creamy pit of mediocrity between.

Which is to say: do any of us, CCFR or otherwise, really know how to assess a good coach in the NHL?

Spezza had a brief comment at the end of the year about how important communication is and how it was an area where Clouston needed to improve, and now it’s on the lips of all armchair assessors of coaching talent. MacLean, we understand, is a communicator. And who better to assess his communications skills than Bryan Murray, who seethes with contempt for the media, and started the very press conference announcing MacLean with a joke that nobody understood or laughed at? Who better than Murray, who so thoroughly bungled the Heatley debacle in the public arena? Who better than Murray, who generally displays a lack of appreciation or understanding of the importance of effective PR in the overall perception of a franchise?

I don’t have the first clue how to assess a coach other than looking at his track record and assuming a correlation. Ottawa only had guys without head coaching experience and old timers who haven’t coached in a while to choose from, and they chose someone from a winning franchise, so I feel okay about it. But more to the point is that feeling okay about it or thinking it’s a terrible choice doesn’t mean a thing. It’s rare that you get someone like Guy Boucher, whose “I use an entirely different system than everyone else!” helps to distinguish him. The rest of the time we’re talking about assessing a person we’ve never met on their ability to be personable and communicate effectively. More often than not, when asked what sort of system they’ll employ, coaches will say something about work ethic and pressure on the opposing team creating turnovers. MacLean is no different, saying that he’ll speak to his players about playing “all 200 feet” of the rink. As if any coach in the league doesn’t preach hard work and a strong forecheck / backcheck. Does Bruce Boudreau not understand the importance of hard work because he has Alex Semin on his team? (P.S. Jeremy over at Black Aces had it right: how many questions into the presser did we get before MacLean got his first question about teaching Spezza defence? Two?)

 Over the course of a season we see a little bit – a very little bit, actually – of how a coach’s strategy plays out. We learned that Clouston insisted on playing Gonchar on his wrong side, for example, and we can blame that for Gonch’s career-worst season, though we might not be right. (i.e. he’s also 64 years old.) And we can look at Guy Boucher’s unorthodox tactics and attribute Tampa’s success to it, though again, we might not be right. (i.e. Dwayne Roloson.) So I submit to you, dear reader: if you count yourself among the apparently very many people who approve of MacLean’s hiring, why is that? What is it about Paul MacLean (who I personally had never heard of until about two weeks ago) that has you excited?

I thought I would save this rant for the absolute dead of summer.

The Senators have to have one of the most reserved, unenthusiastic blogospheres of any team. This isn’t meant as a dig, and in fact, as the voice of (relative) cynicism for The CCFR, I can appreciate that restraint. This isn’t a fanbase that will take one look at Peter Regin’s quasi-breakout playoffs and think the team is competitive. It’s more likely that we will trip all over ourselves undercutting predictions of 20 goals on the season. This extends to almost all facets of our club’s development: should we sign that big UFA? Nope, save the cap space. Should we trade picks for more developed players? Nope, we should be patient and watch our team develop arduously over years. What does success X mean for season Y? Probably nothing, the team is going to stink for a while. All reasonable positions, I guess.

But after the B-Sens win the Calder, I’ve got to ask why we aren’t getting more excited about what this means for a rebuilding club. I can’t think of a better sign that the team might be okay than their farm team winning it all in the FIRST YEAR of the big club’s rebuild – and led by their goalie of the future, no less. Signings like Butler stepped up big time, role players like Greening and Condra played solid two-way games and did the little things right, and even blue chippers like Cowen stepped in to play top minutes after already playing a full season and playoffs with another team. These are all incredibly positive things. I can’t help put think that if it was, say, the Islanders’ AHL affiliate (The Rancho Relaxos, I believe), that they’d feel great.

So all I’m saying, people, is c’mon: it’s June. It’s okay to get a little crazy. We won the Calder, and that means next year we’re gonna win the Cup.

Note: big ups to Cap Geek, which is where I pulled this list from. Only looked at UFA forwards, assuming we aren’t in the market for more defencemen or goalies. 

This year’s UFA period is set to be boringly terrific. Teams like the Rangers and Leafs will launch into their fortieth straight years of a plan to spend their way into contention though it only works .002% of the time; Florida will try to find at least ten new players who would like to play for a team about to set a record for most years out of the playoffs; and Ottawa will not to sign an aging Russian…or will they! Ottawa has $16M in cap space and there’s almost nothing else to write about in Sens news, so here we goooooooooo!

That’s basically where I gave up, because from here on out it’s like the Island of Lost Toys, and I expect most of these players will find themselves leading the Atomic Barracuda Barrels of the Germanic Series in secondary assists.

John Muckler was fired as GM of the Ottawa Senators in mid-June 2007, despite his team making the Stanley Cup finals just weeks earlier. Bryan Murray, the coach that helped get them there and the former GM of the team that beat them, was seen as the true mastermind, succeeding despite Muckler rather than because of him. In what seems, four years later, like a change in the very culture of this hockey club, Murray was promoted to replace Muckler. In the intervening years, Ottawa never won another playoff series, missed the playoffs twice, and were swept once. They’ve had four coaches, including Murray’s second stint. In the kind of irony that can only happen in Ottawa, Murray, age 69, was renewed for three years. For all the clichés about how this is a results-based business, Stanley Cup Finals equalled “you’re out on your ass” and fifth last in the league an extension.

The governing thought seems to be that Murray is too respected, brings too many intangibles to the prestige of the club to let him go. His drafting record, or at least his choices in a scouting department, are lauded. The failures of this club to contend are Muckler’s, and Muckler’s successes were…someone else’s. Being just another hockey fan on the outside, I can do little else but concede that this might be the case. All I have is a record of transactions and public statements on which to base my skepticism. One thing can’t really be debated, which is that the culture of the Murrays is now inextricably tied to this franchise, and rather than make a huge cultural change, Melnyk decided to keep the same vision and plan in place for the foreseeable future. If Kanata sort of resembles a desert, Bryan Murray now sort of resembles Hosni Mubarek.

But in an attempt to restore some semblance of the results-based analysis, let’s look at Murray’s spotty transaction record up close. It ain’t pretty.

 So there you have it. Pretty middling, if you ask me. Combine this with his coaching hires, his UFA signings, and his inability to throw Cyril Leeder down some stairs for the SNES jersey, and I’m pretty ambivalent. He re-signed Chris Phillips after a brutal year, re-signed Craig Anderson to what will seem like a looooooooong deal if it doesn’t work out, and he picked up some decent looking NCAA guys, so maybe that’s a wash? Hard to imagine, with all the thirst for change in Ottawa, that three more years of this seems at all reasonable. Only time will tell if (*suddenly stops writing because this post took forever *)

Throughout this rebuild, I’ve been solidly pessimistic. For weeks I’d been writing about how this was the perfect year for a rebuild, even if the Sens were a playoff bubble team, but when the rebuild began I was afraid that it didn’t go far enough. Major pieces like Spezza, Phillips, Michalek and Alfredsson were left untouched. Secondary pieces like Chris Neil and Filip Kuba stayed, too. Anderson, a goalie we might have traded for a pick, was re-signed for four years, and Phillips for another three. While the team might be improved in a year or two, I didn’t think that the team did enough this year – or guaranteed a low enough finish next year – to truly load up and become a contender. Melnyk started his usual trumpeting, Murray looks like he’ll be staying, and all along I thought that this team was just setting itself up for some Leafs-style mediocrity. Which is to say, never quite mediocre enough, and never quite a contender.

Admittedly, Anderson has been standing on his head and there’s no guarantee that he can play this way for 70+ games next year. But after yesterday’s thrilling OT win over Montreal, I’m a convert: this team has a future, and it’s only a couple of years away.

Bobby Butler and Stephane Da Costa are two key prospects picked up without using a draft-pick; the Sens have five picks in the first 60 (possibly six, if Nashville’s conditional kicks in); David Rundblad and Jared Cowen are set to make the team next year; current rookies like Condra and Greening have surprised, and not looked out of place in the NHL; the team has a top five pick, and though they finished so low, they’re a full 13 points above last place and about eight wins from being a playoff team; the team has about $16M in cap space heading into next year; a new coach is due; Spezza looks dominant, and like he’s finally matured into the player this team always wanted him to be. (He also has 22 points in 14 games.)

With all of those factors in play, the Sens are still far from a shoo-in, and definitely are not contenders. But can anyone say that they can’t see this team, playing the way they’re playing now, winning eight more games than last year?  If a team with a bottom four on defense of Andre Benoit, David Hale, Derek Smith and Brian Lee (and an unimpressive top pairing of Phillips and Kuba) can win games like last night’s, a team with Karlsson, Gonchar, Rundblad and Cowen in the lineup can do more. Imagine if Da Costa plays at the level Bobby Butler is playing at now, if Peter Regin rebounds from his terrible season, if the team signs a new top six UFA, even poaches as RFA by offer sheet (Parise anyone?).

I never thought I’d say it, but could Ottawa return to the playoffs next year?