Conrad

I’m still in Chicago, where hockey highlights, even with the defending champs having played last night, are harder to come by than NBA highlights in Canada, and the Bears played yesterday so checking in on the Senators is tantamount to being a KHL fan in Sao Paolo. But from what I see, Karlsson has decided to make his Chrastmusborg resolution to get the Sens into the playoffs, and after back-to-back wins the team is four points out of 8th. (Though, it should be said, they’ve played four more (!) games than 8th place Boston at this point, and Sportsclubstats still shows their chances of taking 8th at 3%.) As if we need any more evidence that this team should reload, a tiny, 20-year old defenceman selected 15th overall and only in his sophomore year now LEADS THE TEAM IN SCORING. I don’t know whether to get psyched by this or be really depressed about the rest of the team, but it’s probably a little bit of both.

Peter

Actually, you know what was weird last night? I thought the team looked like only one or two guys away from being really dangerous. Thinking in my head, “maybe a total teardown isn’t completely necessary.” Also seeing the highlights of Jared Cowan in Buffalo for the WJHC earlier in the day was mucho encouraging.

If Murray can get his hands on one more physical blueliner and some consistent secondary scoring, we might be okay. Then again we might be not okay since the Spezz now needs meddz. Gulp.

Conrad

I think the Senators are caught now in what I’d term the Rangers Trap: lots of high-paid players, and so the assumption is that they have a high ceiling. One thinks that if all of Alfie, Spezz, Fish, Gonchar, Kovalev and Leclaire played to the level management seems to think they’re capable of, that maybe they would dominate. But you watch a team with a lot of high draft picks – even a team like Atlanta, who have traditionally been terrible – and you get the sense that the Senators are just aging and infirm. There’s a level of speed that just seems beyond this team.

Also, and only partially related, if Gonchar doesn’t start shooting the puck more I think it’s gonna be a long three seasons.

Conrad:

So James is back, having returned from his scouting trip of every NHL team, in what was the hopes of finding a home for Brian Lee, and I believe he has secured Lee a position as towel boy for the San Antonio Spurs. To celebrate, we went to the Sens game last night. Hooooo-boy is Ottawa not very good right now.

I’m starting to think that the Sens should re-sign Ruutu, if only because that third line is the only group to get traction on anything. They keep it simple – one dumps the puck while the second chases it into the corner and dishes the hit, and the third crashes the net. Then they work the cycle and generate chances. You have to wonder why this isn’t working for, say, Spezza-Michalek-Kovalev, who generally accept a pass at the blueline, try to stickhandle through the entire team (the opposing coach having realized that all he needs to do to stop the Ottawa Senators is play the trap), lose the puck, and enjoy the sounds of booing as our opponent gets an odd-man rush the other way.

Spezza was awful last night. I get that he’s a creative player, and that’s a bit of a high-wire act that won’t always work out, but it would be nice to see some fundamentals on, say, the powerplay. When your team is down by a goal, there’s ten minutes left, you get two powerplays, and you’re not able to get a single shot on goal, then you know you’ve got problems. Honestly, I would have put Neil, Kelly and Shannon out there before Michalek, Alfie and Kovalev.

Oh, also: Gonchar. Does. Not. Shoot.

Lastly, being at the game you really get a sense of how down on Spezza most people are. I feel like all of the frustration at once having had such a fun 1st line and now only having the youngest and most inconsistent player of the three left (Alfie having transcended to a higher / lower plane of age) is now taken out on him. The boos came readily, given the team only lost by a goal and was leading through one. People are really frustrated. Too bad. With an announced attendance of 19k, it was a packed building, and the team blew it.

Peter:

Watched last night’s game in shifts. First period at my parents’ place where everything was gravy. Washington looked like a team that had lost 8 straight. Ottawa was winning battles along the boards, putting guys in front the net and generally carrying the play.

After the first period I decided to hightail it back to my apartment. I walked in the door to Perrault’s second tally. Basically a tale of two games. After the intermission, I can only imagine what Boudreau said in the room but I suppose it sounded something close to Joe Pesci’s character in Home Along 2. (nope, didn’t stay home saturday night to watch that movie)

The crazy thing in all this aside from the play which Conrad highlighted earlier, is that they’ve picked up 6 of the 10 available points in the last five games. Hello 8 spot.

So here’s my zany, “Islanders make the playoffs” type prediction for the second half of this season. Ottawa makes the playoffs, draws Atlanta and wins that first round series only to be swept in the one that follows. Think about it, it affords the delusional optimism most fans have come to expect (heck even embrace) while after its conclusion there’s still enough fodder for the “what’s wrong with these guys?” pundits. The perfect mix!

Conrad:

I would take that scenario. Looking at the standings, the parity certainly does give the impression that almost anyone can make it. There’s enough hockey left that were the Sens to go on a run, it’s possible. Though, again due to parity, a team being six points out of the playoffs, as the Senators are, is huge these days. According to Sportsclubstats, the Sens have a 1% chance of taking the 8th seed, and less than that of going any higher. (Which seems sort of ridiculous, and I don’t know if the math bears out.) Again, to put it into perspective, the Sens are only four points up on Florida, who is rebuilding, and Toronto, who is cursed, and only three up on Edmonton, whose average age is eleventeen. I’m rooting for that 8th place finish (though I’m not-so-secretly rooting for a blow-up), but let’s just say I’ve been reading about top ten picks lately.

James:

Welcome back ME! *dodges sharp garbage*

Well, I’ve decided that forced retirement is not for me. No, rather, in the spirit of my BDSM club, the floggings must continue until morale improves. (No judgements at the CCFR)

As such, like Conrad mentioned, we attended last night’s floor behind the toilet that no one ever cleans at Scotiabankplace.com. I returned from blog jail a few days ago to check up on the Senators, only to be pleasantly surprised: No big blow outs to speak of, Pascal Leclaire alive, some mercy points for good measure, Karlsson point streak…okay, I can get into this.

Welllllll welcome back curseface! (I am curseface.) I returned to see the Sens blow a lead in Colorado only to stage a semi-valiant comeback and then suffer a regular-valiant counter comeback from the Avs.

Theeeeeeeeeeeen there was last night. Wow…is the Sens third line ever flying! Leading the team with work ethic, speed, some flashy passing and scoring–! Oops …call coming in…absolutely have to take this…

Hello CCFR, junior blogger at arms James speaking …oh hey boss, thanks for not throwing my desk in the garbage while I was gone. Hmmm…third line, yeah…nope I meant to type third line just there…no, I did. Yes, I am pretty drunk right now but I can assure you… Yes, I know that those are adjectives you would typically use to describe the first line on pretty much any team. Well, I’d love to erase it because it IS pretty embarrassing but there’s no backspace on my electronic typewriter. Yes, that would explain my spelling and grammar—

Oh he hung up. Anyway, the Sens looked like a goddamn mess last night. By the Barfzone I mean Second Period here were the lines:

Forwards:
Carkner Jr. – Melnyk – Mendez
Regin – Jong Il -Woody Allen
Foligno– Brust – Foligno
Ruutu – Alfredsson – Captials Fans

Defense:
Spezza – Clouston
Rundblad – Spartamoose
Murray- Schubert

Starting goalie – Eli Wilson

CLOUSTON I KNOW YOU’RE READING THIS. THIS BLOG IS THE FOURTH RETURN ON GOOGLE WHEN YOU SEARCH YOUR NAME: CHILL OUT WITH THE LINE COMBOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I might be uncharacteristically short on the recap:

-Maybe Spezza’s worst game of the season. Was definitely hurting the team more than helping.
– Michalek and Phillips both bet on the Capitals or something
-Line combos are bordering on insane
-Gonchar still playing on wrong side?…Totally working.
-Team can actually look at a DISADVANTAGE on the power play
-Defense is making Elliot break his back and as a result Elliot is breaking the team’s back
– Karlsson is currently the only dynamic puck possession player on a supposed dynamic puck possession team.
– Alfie looks hurt or really tired. Age 38 (happy belated Papa Alfie) on the first line? Give him a week off or something at this point.
– Pascal Leclaire is on an IV
– Third line looks like First line
-Yikes.
– I think Gonchar was smoking weed with Kovalev before the game…but I think Kovalev can handle his stuff way more.
– Stuff people scream out at the game? Really, really funny…oops…oops not very funny…that’s confirmed as NOT very funny. You’re KILLING it bros. We’re allllll paying attention to you just like your parents didn’t. We / your parents hate you.

I’m excited about the Sens upcoming game against the Cleveland Barons.

According to Google Image, this guy’s name is also Erik Karlsson. Lace ’em up, Erik, you’re going in.

Everywhere you look, Sens blogs (including this one) and “legitimate” “newspaper” “writers” are bemoaning a Senators team that, according to Playoffstatus, have a 7% chance of snagging the 8th seed. Who can blame them? The year before last, which was the first playoff-less year in over a decade, was seen as an anomaly for a team switching coaches every few months and dealing with the Emery mess. But this year is different: there’s been no torrid start, and no scoring, let alone win streaks. This team came out of the gate like a wet noodle and hasn’t fared much better since. It’s rare to look at a season that is still so young and know that you don’t have much to look forward to, be it playoffs or a high draft pick. (As an aside, we definitely picked a great season in which to start a Sens blog.) There are still about 50 games on the schedule, and so long as this team stays in the mediocre middle – not rebuilding, but not competitive – I don’t know how long fans will tune in. They’re pretty savvy in Ottawa; they’re not that into “anything can happen in the playoffs” being the plan for the future.

Which brings me to Erik Karlsson. He’s in a unique position, in that he represents the youth of this club, but is playing out his entry-level contract while the rest of our good defensive prospects – Cowen, Wiercioch, Rundblad – are still looking at a year or two of development. He hasn’t hit his ceiling by a long-shot, and he hasn’t filled out (though expecting him to be physical is like expecting him to be a different kind of player), but we’ve seen glimpses of what he’s capable of. He’s in that purgatorial state where he’s neither a prospect nor a veteran, and for all of his talent is not enough of a blue-chipper that this team can build around him.

So the tough question is: if this team launches into a rebuild (which remains to be seen), is Karlsson actually tradable?

From a sentimental point of view, I say no: I like his play, his enthusiasm and creativity, and how his voice sounds like he’s sucking back helium. He’s only in his second season, and I feel he has a lot more to show us. But from a strictly developmental perspective, the timing isn’t great. After next season he’ll need another contract, and one would have to think that he’ll be earning at least $2M – $2.5M given he plays twenty minutes a night and occasionally quarterbacks Ottawa’s power play. (Which, it should be noted, is rated 12th in the NHL after last year being rated 21st, and spending most of the season next to last.) He’s worth that money, but is also worth more now from a trading perspective than he’ll ever be. If Ottawa is going to implement a plan to win in three to five seasons rather than right now, are we better off with a high draft pick / a prospect that’s a year or two from breaking the big game, or is Erik a big part of Ottawa’s future?

Of course, trading him will never happen. Murray traded last season’s pick for a player selected in the same spot a year earlier, jumping the development line by a year – he’s not looking to build long term, he’s looking to jump start production. But if this team is facing the big ideological questions of what kind of team it wants to be, where do you see Erik Karlsson fitting in?

Conrad

What do you guys think of the rumor on Senschirp and 6th Sens that the Blues called about Kovalev, and might want to offer Brad Boyes in return?

A few stats:

– Boyes has another year on his contract after this one at a $4M cap hit. He’s 28 years old, and his best season, in terms of point production, was 72 points (33-39…and a minus 20), two seasons ago, though the year prior to that he scored 43 goals
– He might be a suffering from a bit of the Cheechoos: After 42 and 33 goals, the year after he scored 14 and this year he’s on pace for 18
– Keep in mind, though, that his best years were with Paul Kariya, and in his down years Kariya was out with injuries. He clearly needs an elite playmaker, and this team has been trying to find someone to play with Spezza ever since Heatley ripped Spartacat’s heart out and ate in in front of his litter
– Brad Boyes is no two-way player. Now that St. Louis has some depth, he’s dropped down the chart and his effectiveness has diminished greatly. He’s the sort of player the team would need to commit to, giving him big minutes and a chance to mesh with Spezza; but he isn’t the complete package
– Also keep in mind that Kovalev is completely and totally useless
– Clearly Kovalev’s value lies in his expiring contract, and so whether or not this is a viable deal will depend mightily on what this franchise’s plans are for the offseason. If they have designs on a certain, high-priced player, they may not wish to spend that space on someone they had no interest in. On the other hand, if this team has any desire to make the playoffs this year and wants to shake up the lineup, this is a way to do it.

Personally, I would go for it. Were Foligno and Regin playing to their potential, maybe I wouldn’t, but with only one season left on his contract and lots of cap space coming up, I don’t see it as a very big risk. But of course Murray should ask whoever is going to replace him as GM if it’s okay first, so as to not muck with their plans.

Peter

Interesting, I suppose it depends on which other FA’s they’re planning on bringing back. Are they going to try and keep this “red-shirt star trek dudes ” of a team together or are they going to wipe the slate clean? I think they want Jarkko and Phillips back, which means they’d only have about 5 mil total. Are they going after one big name? (doubtful). Is Boyes worth sacrificing the depth of multiple free agent signings?

No, I’m going to pass because the sens have had issues with “rejuventation” projects. They’re currently paying two of them already. This just trades one bad contract for another. The caveat here is that if they agree to take Kuba in exchange for an UFA or a pick. Then I do this deal in a heartbeat, call up David Hale and sleep like a baby at night while my team tanks.

Conrad

So, Pete and I watched the game in a bar with lots of completely silent people wearing Sens jerseys and one loud Rangers fan. Sounds about right.

Some observations:

Fisher’s ‘non-goal’ in the second, where he had Lundie beat and the puck hit one post, ricocheted off the other post, and then out without ever crossing the line, is a perfect metaphor for the Senators’ season so far. That and Gonchar falling on his ass.

Speaking of which: Time-outs in hockey are completely ridiculous. You spend two minutes watching the coach painstakingly diagram a play and then the whistle blows and everyone falls all over each other like toddlers. Or, in last night’s case, Spezza wins the draw back to Sergei Gonchar, who falls over and gives up the empty net goal. Triumphant.

I don’t know if Elliott needs to play a lot of games in a row to be good. But last night he certainly wasn’t good. I think it takes a miraculous act of goaltending, one that defies Euclid, to actually allow that Fedotenko goal from that angle and, of course, it goes without saying that to allow a goal from behind the goal line while hugging the post is truly incredible. Happens to the best of us (meaning them), I guess, but to have two such goals in one game is like being punched in one nut and then very soon after being punched in the other nut. By Ruslan Fedotenko.

Pete

I assumed that one loud rangers fan was a degenrate gambler since he never really got loud again after New York tied it for the first time. Once the rangers beat the spread with the empty netter he was probably just as despondant as the rest of us.

Speaking of that first Rangers goal, it was memorable because we actually got to watch Gonchar have a mental breakdown and you didn’t need the telestrator to illustrate it. Stepan crosses the blueline with Gonchar graciously donating ample time and space, drops the puck to Gaborik who, according to Ottawa’s scouting report “plays hockey” and then… (wait for it) … STEPAN PROCEEDS TO GO TO THE NET!!! Where the fuck did you think he was going Sergei? He waltzed right past you and filed his nails waiting for the return feed. Elliott was helpless! Sometimes I think we need to start watching Sens games in abandoned warehouses and foreign protectorates with lax property laws so we can riot and march on the capital with little to no reprocussions. It’s torch and pitchfork time. (If you’ll allow me to continue Conrad’s Dickensian theme)

But that wasn’t the best part, there were certain individual players who seemed determined to out do themselves in the pants-shitting department. Elliott’s post allergy Conrad alluded to was topped by the five hole gift he gave Sauer on the PP. I already mentioned Gonchar’s wet brain fart, only to be topped by his pirouette and fall down off the draw.

Slow clap