So, Bryan Murray acquired behemoth goaltending prospect Ben Bishop from St. Louis for a 2013 second round pick. We don’t know much at this point, but we can probably read the following in the tea leaves:

1) That’s it for Alex Auld. Okay, maybe you didn’t need this move to know it, but I thought Auld didn’t get much of a fair shake this season. Ottawa preferred to play Anderson all the time: during both games in back-to-backs, after poor outings, against teams weak and strong. It’s tough to come into a game cold, and Auld never got on a roll. He has plenty of NHL experience. Given the chance, you’d think he might fill in suitably. Otherwise, why pay him a million bucks a year? Now, with Ben Bishop having arrived, and Robin Lehner going so far as to sabotage Craig Anderson’s frozen chicken so he can get his chance ; ), Auld is probably on his way to a ninth team in what will be 13 seasons. He’s still only 31; he’s cheap; he’ll find a home somewhere. Can Murray move him before tomorrow’s deadline? (Hint: no)

2) Ottawa don’t need no second round picks. This is just weird for a team that is supposedly rebuilding. Second round picks are the perfect trade resources – you’re not giving up a sure thing, but they have real value when you consider that the best way to build depth is with volume. I suppose Ottawa has only fastracked a prospect by taking a 25 year old, former 3rd rounder rather than wait the five years or so it takes a second round pick to pan out. But if you had told me that Bryan Murray would trade away both his 2012 and 2013 second rounders before the season was out-and both in deals for risky or unproven players, I would have said that that was unlikely, and taken your beer and poured it down the kitchen sink.

3) The team is not so sold on Robin Lehner. At least not yet. Sure, Bishop can play in Binghamton too, and they need the help, but considering he’s signing a one-way deal, we’re probably going to see an Anderson / Bishop tandem. Lehner is going to have to wait before he runs for mayor of Ottawa and crushes crime in his iron grip.

4) Tomorrow’s trade deadline will be boring for Ottawa fans. Given the complete lack of second rounders and management’s disinterest in trading prospects, Ottawa is pretty much set for the season. Maybe Murray trades a mid-round pick for some bottom-six depth. But it won’t be anywhere close to as interesting as when Alex Semin is traded to the Peoria Rivermen.

After Karlsson’s big four point Family Day game (for those outside of Ontario, we were bribed a couple of elections ago with the promise of an additional holiday in February, and we regret nothing) I turned to a friend of mine and asked, “So, do you think Karlsson is going to win the Norris this year?”

Having played his whole life, and with a brother who’s played in the AHL, ECHL, and elsewhere, this friend of mine is more literate in hockey than me. He’s able to read hockey in an intuitive way that I’ve never been able to muster. I’ll look at stats and profiles, trying to find some evidence of the fluid game I enjoy in the static numbers and standings; he simply looks at the gait or shot of a young player and has a more nuanced read of his potential.

He answered no immediately. “He doesn’t kill penalties.”

I’m open to the idea that Karlsson can’t win the Norris this season, but the difference between my friend and I is that I attribute that to some sort of institutional bias. Shea Weber should have won last year, but Lidstrom did, as if the gesture were required as the penultimate recognition of an all-time great before an impending retirement. (Meanwhile, Lidstrom looks like he can play for another couple of seasons…) The thinking seemed to go that Weber would have his day to win the Norris, and that when it happened—which is to say, this season—it would be seen as the passing of the torch from one great defenceman to the next.

And so I assumed that Weber would get his due, possibly at Karlsson’s expense, but that it wouldn’t be because of Karlsson. He leads defencemen in scoring by a country mile. He leads Shea Weber in CORSI. If it’s true that he has defensive liabilities as a result of his small frame, he far outweighs them (er…out-lights them?) with offensive contributions. He’s on the ice for more of his team’s goals than any other defenceman in the league.

But, as my friend pointed out again, “He doesn’t kill penalties. That might not be fair,” he said, “but that’s how the award gets voted. A defenceman who doesn’t kill penalties isn’t going to win the award for best defenceman.” I should point out that it’s true: Karlsson doesn’t really kill penalties. He’s on the ice for less than a minute of shorthanded time per game, one would assume right before the penalty is set to expire, while Weber leads the top penalty killing unit in Nashville with Ryan Suter. (Though, I suppose it’s worth mentioning, he’s not even in the top 30 in the league in shorthanded time on the ice, but that could have something to do with Nashville not getting as many penalties. Also worth mentioning is that with big Hal Gill traded to Nashville, Weber’s shorthanded time should take a dip. Gill is third in the league in shorthanded time on ice per 60 minutes. Final aside: Jared Cowen is 18^th. Not bad for a kid.)

What we have is a philosophical question, and one that could have huge ramifications for a team gearing up to negotiate Karlsson’s next contract: is it more valuable to have a very, very good all-around player, or a player who is better than any other in the league in a few particular things? Because Karlsson isn’t just having a good season: offensively he’s dominating the league, and in a way that, at least this season, is putting him on another plane. The answer to that question is the difference between five and seven million dollars per year.

The closest correlative is supposed to be Mike Green, a similarly offensively gifted player who is supposedly defensively stunted. In 2009-2010 he led defencemen in scoring with 76 points. But the point here isn’t that Karlsson will score close to the same number of points, it’s the distance by which he’s outpacing the competition. In 09/10, Duncan Keith was only seven points behind Green (although he played seven more games). In 2008-2009 Green led defencemen as well, with Andrei Markov nine points behind him with ten more games played. The gap was large, though not large enough to see Green lose to Norris.

This season Karlsson is a whopping 17 points ahead of his next closest competition, Brian Campbell, is +14 to Campbell’s -9, and he’s doing it on a team most picked to finish bottom five in the league. He’s the team’s MVP, perhaps even responsible for their current playoff spot. If there’s a case to be made—and I think there is—it’s not only that Karlsson excels at one aspect of his position to a degree that no other player seems capable of matching, it’s the distance he’s put between himself and the rest of the pack. That he doesn’t play on the penalty kill on a team with Jared Cowen, Chris Phillips, Filip Kuba, Matt Carkner, Brian Lee, and other defencemen who seem better suited to it, seems like a strange reason to disqualify Karlsson from Norris consideration.

But it still nags at me a little: those other defencemen are better suited, and this friend of mine, like I said, didn’t even hesitate to say Karlsson wouldn’t win it, and not only because it’s ‘not his turn’ but because he doesn’t deserve it. It seems like what we have is a recurring debate, one about the traditional conception of the responsibility and role of a defenceman versus the staggering reality of Karlsson’s incredible season. And so Ottawa is faced with their first big debate about the value of a defenceman since they got the Redden / Chara choice so, so wrong.

I know that seems a little extreme but the beauty part is that in 2012, the idea of Karlsson scoring 20 goals only seems a LITTLE extreme. I raise this question because this number, 20, she has a history with me that dates back to that whacky year of our lord, 2010.

I was Tokyo drifting about on the salt flat that is the Offseason Sensphere where fans and writers alike are trying with all their might to find things to discuss*. Anyway, I can’t remember exactly where I read this, but in the heady, uncertain time that was the post-Heatley/pre-rebuild era some kind soul offered up a fan poll “Hey brosephine(s), who do you think will score 20 g/d goals for the Sens this year?” Pretty sure that was the exact wording.

It was a really good question at the time. With Spezza chronically struggling with injury, Jonathan Cheechoo living under the name Dr. Mario Prettyhorse and hiding in Burkina-Faso (oops sorry to give you away Cheech, my keyboard has no backspace button), Alex Kovalev was busy finishing up his Masters in Early 21^st Century Money Collection, a general malaise loomed surrounding the team’s prospects for a 20 goal scorer. The notion that the Sens might have more than one 20 plus guy on the roster seemed rare, like Mr. Clean with hair.

On the message board below the poll, a poster expressed confidence that Erik Karlsson might perhaps be able to reach this milestone. Well, as you could imagine, many others on the message board tore that person to shreds (I know, rare behavior on a message board but bare with me). “ARE YOU KIDDING ME WHO DO YOU THINK HE IS PHIL HOUSLEY!?!?! OBVIOUSLY ITS GOING TO BE PETER REGIN!!!!” they scream-typed.

Now that the dust of that season has settled, at the close of 2010-2011 the Sens ended up with Spezza as Ottawa’s only 20 goal man, tallying 21.

Following much ballyhoo (is that not the worst word you’ve ever heard?) that breakout season for Regin never came to fruition and he finished with an abysmal 3 goals on the year. Sophomore Erik Karlsson, on the other hand, posted up an impressive 13 goals, which was interestingly the same number that Regin had finished the 2009-2010 season with and got a lot of fans talking about the (at the time) very real possibility that he could pot 7 more if given time in the top 6.

Seeing as Karlsson finished last season with 13 and is currently (conservatively IMO) on pace for 14. Do you think it is possible for him to put up 6 or 7 more in a season? Wait, before you answer, shut up for a second while I continue to say stuff!

The question on my mind is this, what exactly is a realistic ceiling projection for Karlsstud at this point? This kid has, for me, gone from “phew, working out nicely” to “hot holy Moses, He is the future of this team.” Where do we find our delicious nougatty middle that is packed with peanuts? This season’s performance sees our Special Little Guy poised to make all of the money currently on planet Earth. I’m not exaggerating, hockey insider Bob MacKenzie estimates that Karlsson will sign twixt the neighbourhood of eleventy trillion and one hundredy squillion Spacedollars depending on the new CBA. Rein it in? Time for me to rein it in.

Okay, so as of this writing, EK sits at 10 goals and is on pace for whopping 72 points which again I actually think is a little on the conservative side considering the amount of multi point performances the kid has put up. Regardless, that is right in the neighborhood  of elite puck mover Mike Green’s best season of 76 points. Long term what are we looking at here? At 21 years of age and in the midst of only his 3rd NHL season, do we have that oh so rare nearly point per game defensemen on our hands? It’s not so unreasonable considering his performance playing only on Sens teams that have varied from playoff bubble to lotto pick and back. Does anyone think maybe we will we see a Doughty-like regression once Karlsson is given ALL OF THE MONEY and becomes one of the five richest kings of the moon? It’s at least possible considering it happened to Drew Doughty.

It has got to be super motivating to watch every multipoint performance turn into visions of the Cadillac Escalade edition jet skis that Karlsson is all but assured to earn with his next contract but looking at the kid’s point totals each year, I am willing to accept this is perhaps an exceptional season but at the same time I do not expect much of a drop off for years to come. A drop off seems even less likely if the rebuild continues to go as planned and the Senators as a team get progressively better. It’s not like Karlsson can log many more minutes than he’s already playing but can he put up even more points within those minutes?

Okay so thanks for coming to my crib MTV, you’ve seen my hover boards, you’ve seen the kitchen made entirely of platinum that I’ve never looked at or used, you’ve seen my Jacuzzi full of Faberge eggs and organic rice pudding, now its time for you to go and tell me if you think Karlsson’s got 20 goals in him. Sub Question: Could he do it this year?

*Save for the entire staff of Welcome To Your Karlsson Years who, come summertime, return to our jobs writing commercials for Cheetah Power Surge Energy Drink. Wait till you see the new one we have planned with Ben Johnson. It’s a laugh riot. What’s that? Who is Ben Johnson? Are you serious? He’s only an Olympic sprinter who got caught cheating well over 20 years ago! DUH, read the late 1980’s news much? Anyway, really, really, hip stuff. Stay Tuned. I have a feeling that 2012 is going to be the year of the Mayan Apocalypse Cheetah Power Surge Energy Drink. Frank D’Angelo seems like a really good dude.

The Hockey Gods have finally thrown a bone to those few still looking forward to Trade Deadline 2012. Rather than watch seven straight hours of panel analysis on how Boston’s (or whoever’s) decision to acquire Bryan Allen for a second round pick was a strategic masterstroke, instead we get this: Rick Nash is on the block.

Now, I imagine every blog for every team will be writing their version of this post over the next couple of days, so let me start by saying that Ottawa’s chances of obtaining him are practically nil. He’s got a no-movement clause in his contract, so he can pick where he goes, and I’m not sure why he’d assent to move from one rebuilder (albeit a perpetual one) to another while in his prime, even if the latter rebuilder is playing better than expected.

As I see it, the three things that might work in Ottawa’s favor are:

1)      Nash’s experience playing with Jason Spezza in the World Championships. It seems like every year this happens, and the two tear it up (against terrible competition), and Ottawa Senators blogs write about what it would take to get Nash and how it will never happen, and Columbus blogs write about what it would take to get Spezza (and how it might actually happen). The point being that this elusive ‘elite center’ that Nash requires to reach his potential is not a turnkey solution, and Nash is a player Ottawa actually has game tape of playing with their guy. It’s less of a risk for Ottawa to gamble resources on obtaining him. Jeff Carter hasn’t looked comfortable playing with Nash, though to be fair he hasn’t looked comfortable in Columbus, period. Sticking Nash on a line with Brad Richards (he of $9MM a year and three more points than Nick Foligno) in New York is no guarantee. The other teams reported to be scouting him (seriously…scouting Rick Nash? What’s to scout?) are Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Detroit, and all but Dallas have truly elite centers to play with Nash. But again, you’re making a huge commitment in money and years in the hopes that chemistry is there. With Spezza you at least know that the two work together, which means maybe Murray is willing to outbid the opposition on this one.

Which brings me to…

2)      Ottawa has the cap space and the prospects. Most of the teams who are in the running have the pro rated room this season (if I’m understanding the deadline cap calculation process correctly), but would have to let substantial pieces walk in the offseason to fit Nash going forward. In the case of a team like New York, you’re mucking with a team at the top of the standings all season long by trading away at least one roster player to obtain Nash, and then allowing yet more to walk to maintain the cap space. Other teams might have to insist that Columbus take salary back in the deal. Ottawa, as of this writing, has a trillion dollars in cap space, doesn’t have to insist on a salary dump, and doesn’t have to give up a major piece going forward. Again, Murray can deal a great hand if he decides Nash needs to be in an Ottawa jersey.

3)      Nash apparently doesn’t want to go to a big market. I don’t know about this one, as it’s a bit nebulous – hey, who wouldn’t want to live in New York City? – but that’s the rumor. Would he want to go to New York or Toronto only to have the media shoot him in the kneecap the first game he goes without a point? Ottawa offers him another under-the-radar market, but in a hockey mad country, and in a city only marginally as cursed. Might be a nice middle ground.

Sooooooooo what would it take to get him? That Puck Daddy story says New York is rumored to give up Brandon Dubinsky, prospect Chris Kreider and a first round pick. Frankly, that doesn’t sound like much for an elite player. You’re talking a solid top six player who is good but you can’t likely build around, a good but not elite prospect (Kreider was drafted 19^th overall in 2009, and projects as a top six power forward) and a very late 1^st rounder.

Ottawa doesn’t really have a roster player of Dubinsky’s quality and tradeability (that’s not a word) that they’d want to part with (Karlsson is untouchable, and what’s the point of giving up Spezza if the whole point is to pair the two?), but might beat that package with one of their own late 2011 first rounders (Puempel, Noesen), one of their surprising later rounders like Mark Stone (who might be a the height of his trade value now after the World Juniors, and if you believe, as I do, that he’ll have trouble transitioning his game to the NHL), and their 2012 first round pick, which projects as top 15. If not that, perhaps a package with Jared Cowen or Mika Zibanejad as its cornerstone could get it done. Stephan DaCosta is still alive, this Binghamton newspaper I’m reading says.

I return again to the notion that Ottawa pulled the trigger on that Rundblad trade way too early. Turris is paying off for Ottawa right now, but knowing that a rare player like Nash might be available, and that Rundblad would surely have been a key bargaining chip, I wonder if the best we could get for the best offensive-defenseman prospect in the game and a second rounder was a potential bust who, thank god, is working out for now. Knowing that we have a CBA negotiation coming up, there may be even more teams who find themselves in impossible situations come 2013 and so have to offload salary in a hurry, and Ottawa was primed as a team with cap space and prospects to take advantage of those situations. It will be harder to do that now, as our remaining prospects are not as redundant as Rundblad was.

If I had to wager a guess, I say Nash goes to New York, if only because that’s the way it always works with that market. (Brad Richard, Marian Gaborick and Rick Nash all playing on the same team? How could it be anywhere other than New York? Then they’ll sign Semin next year, just you watch.) Or possibly Toronto, since Brian Burke is long overdue for his mid-season overhaul and it’s been talked about for about 17 years.

Editor’s correction: Gaborick is actually spelled Gaborik. I must have been thinking of his brother, Rick Gaborick.

It’s no longer a given that Ottawa is a buyer at this year’s deadline. In the last two weeks they’ve gone from a 90% chance at the playoffs to around 40%, according to Sportsclubstats. But let’s forget about how used we’ve become to the idea of Ottawa in the playoffs. Head back to the beginning of the season, when everyone was predicting Ottawa to be somewhere between dead last in the NHL and dead last in the OHL. If back then you were told you could have a 40% chance at the playoffs in February, do you think you would have taken it? I sure would have.

So now, on to righting the ship. A few caveats: 1) I don’t necessarily think that Ottawa should be a buyer. I’m not one for watching my team get destroyed in the first round. But I’m going to assume that management has been convinced that playoffs are obtainable, and that if they can find help for the right price, they’ll go for it. 2) The 2^nd round pick is the perfect trade deadline currency. It’s just late enough in the draft not to sting a team who wants to gamble on a pending UFA, and just close enough to offer tantalizing promise to a seller. The point here being that Ottawa obviously doesn’t have its 2^nd rounder anymore, having packaged it with one of the best offensive-defenseman prospects in the entire league to take a risk on a borderline bust who, thank Christ, seems to be working out pretty well.

It seems like if Ottawa were to obtain anything at the deadline, it will be a forward. Murray’s said as much, and they’re heavily linked to Tuomo Ruutu by newspapers who have promised 36 straight hours of coverage of the deadline even though there aren’t really any big names on the market. (Aside: remember when Sportsnet had Eklund that one deadline?) I’ve declared my favor for the notion of throwing everything we’ve got at obtaining Zach Parise, but I know that’s not going to happen, especially with the Devils in a playoff position.

But more importantly, I think Ottawa’s offense – or recent lack thereof – can be linked to their porous defense and shoddy goaltending. We’ve seen it before: the early or untimely goal that deflates the team; the aging defenceman who turns in a pylon-esque performance; the inability to run a rudimentary breakout play. Ottawa has shown that it has the guns to score in this league. Perhaps the problem stems from the backend having gone hollow. Sure, we have our glut of mediocrity back there now, and not a lot of room, but with Brian Lee and Matt Carkner making peanuts the team can afford to sit them, or package them along with a pick as a mini-salary dump.

Puck Daddy published its list of seven defensemen who could make an impact, and there are some intriguing names there – especially because Ottawa has its share of puck movers and not nearly enough shut down / shot blockers, which seems to be most of what’s available.

Most obvious to me is the familiar Andy Sutton. I’m on record (looks around, notes that no one is actually producing a record of everything I say) saying that I think he should have been re-signed by Ottawa. After an underwhelming and injury-plagued performance in Anaheim, he’s reclaimed his game a bit in Edmonton. He was obtained two seasons ago for a 2^nd rounder; could he be had this season for a 3^rd?

Hall Gill is a workhorse, if a one-dimensional player, and is the perennial deadline acquisition for some team meaning to employ the “if I stuck a sumo wrestler in front of the net, would it work?” strategy. Obviously he skates like two traffic signs taped together, and with limited resources on the market some fool team might make this into a bidding war, but Ottawa should keep its head in the room. He’s not a glamorous player, but he’s played some solid playoff hockey.

Pavel Kubina might be one of the most experienced and versatile defenders available, and given his larger cap hit and Ottawa’s excess cap space (even with pro rating giving everyone a jillion dollars in space), they might take advantage of wary shoppers and get him for less than usual. I’m skeptical, as Kubina looked terrible in Toronto and less than impressive in Tampa, but as a complimentary player rather than a core defensive pairing, I could see this paying off. Would tampa take a flyer on Brian Lee and a pick to get Kubina’s remaining million or so off the books, or would it take a late 1st rounder?

Finally, Ottawa could shoot for the moon and try to obtain one (or both!) of Ryan Suter or Shea Weber. I imagine they would have to part with pretty much everyone on their roster and all of their picks from now until the end of time, and probably Scotiabank Place, but it’s still pretty cool to imagine.

Who would you rather have at the deadline?

A quick glance around the Sensosphere ™ this morning and it seems like we’ve settled on the notion that Ottawa’s baffling slide is due to a sudden lack of motivation. It’s as if the whole team suddenly came down with chronic vitamin D deficiency, which, being from Ottawa and it being February, I wouldn’t be surprised by. (I’m suddenly listening to nothing by Husker Du and drinking 19 beers after work every night.) But then again, I’m skeptical.

Ottawa threw 49 shots at James Reimer on Saturday night, and while not all of them were quality chances, I can’t see any discernable difference between the effort level of these Ottawa Senators and the ones who were winning games they had no business winning just a few weeks ago. While the early season successes had a lot to do with everything going right at the same time, now the inverse is true.

1) The goaltending is still mostly bad

Even with Anderson playing the hero in December and stealing a few wins for the team, they’ve now allowed the first goal in a staggering 287 straight games (might be off by a few games, but it’s close). Combined with the goal from center-ice against Boston, the goals at inopportune times, and the seemingly thousands of close calls, this is all eerily familiar: the team is as deflated as they were by Brian Elliott’s unreliable goaltending last season. The tragic part is that at least Elliott was making peanuts and wasn’t signed for four years…I’m not ready to throw Anderson under the bus yet, but there’s no denying that something’s broken right now. Would it really be all that bad to give Auld, who hasn’t played since 1981, a game or two?

2) Players once overachieving have turned into ghosts

Zack Smith was once on pace for 20 goals – fantastic for a third line center. Nick Foligno was having a resurgent year, and looking like a 50 point player. Milan Michalek was leading the league in scoring (for a few days). Jared Cowen was playing 30 minutes a night and looking good doing it. Sergei Gonchar was looking like he was close to a 50 point defenseman. Greening and Condra were scoring big goals at the right times. Karlsson, Spezza and Alfie were dominant at times. Even Butler was scoring the odd game winner. It’s not so much that all of these players have gone cold; perhaps it’s that we became too used to this overachieving. Except for Michalek. That dude cannot be this bad all of a sudden – one point in his last five games!

3) Other teams have stopped taking the team lightly

How many backups did this team used to see? How many times would a dominant team come out and muster 19 shots against Ottawa, only to realize too late that they were letting the game get out of hand? When you’re 6th in the conference (or once were), they stop with the gimmes. Ottawa is seeing the best other teams have to offer, and to put it plainly, they’re not good enough to compete. Now that the playing field is level, you’re not getting anywhere if you’re not going to at least win games against the Islanders and Leafs in your own barn.

4) The team’s ‘work for it’ system is the same system everyone else uses, except most of them have about $18MM more in salary on their roster

I wrote about this a long time ago, but I remember reading an ‘anonymous GM’ quote about how hard Ottawa planned on riding these kids, and how it would be difficult for them to keep it up late in the season. I think we’re seeing this become prophetic – you can’t outwork the other team unless you’re being underestimated or your team finds another level. It’s not reasonable to assume another level every game, so it comes down to skill and a better system. At this point in the season, it’s looking more and more like a simple trap in the neutral zone is enough to produce turnovers. Passes aren’t making it through. Ottawa’s defence is slow. It’s not that they aren’t working hard; hard work isn’t enough in the best league in the world. MacLean needs to respond by out coaching the opposition rather than going back to what worked when legs were fresh.

5) Ottawa’s powerplay is awful

Not sure what else needs to be said here. It used to be top five – yet another reason why Ottawa was winning games where they were also allowing four or five goals. Now it’s down to 18th. (Its PK is even worse at 22nd.)

–

It’s not all doom and gloom – Ottawa could turn this around. Even playing .500 hockey from  here on out puts them in a playoff position. But in the last two weeks they’ve stumbled from a 90% chance at the playoffs to 50%. We’re down to 27 games and a coin toss. And for all the quotes from Murray that this team isn’t going to fall off because they just work too hard, it’s discouraging to think management became as ensorcelled by the early season run as the rest of us. With the team primed to take a run at Tuomo Ruutu (goodbye first round pick), and their best prospect out the door already, I don’t know that they haven’t pushed all their chips forward this season.

I’ve probably got a much longer post in me somewhere about how Ottawa is squandering a once in a decade chance to rebuild properly, and how we’re destined for ten year’s worth of bubble team hockey as a result, but for now I’ll just say that what we’re seeing now is likely closer to what a team of eager young players is capable of producing. Hopefully this is just a late-season sag, and they’ll go back on upswing just in time to really push back in the first round of the playoffs. But in the meantime, saying that they just aren’t trying seems like a bit of a cop out.

Starts.

 No seriously, I’m really starting to get worried about all of the starts that Craig Anderson is getting. This guy gets… STARTS, by the way.

Now, I wanted to make sure I didn’t post this after a loss so I didn’t look all, “UHHHGRR, SEE, I DONE TOLD YOU IF YOU START HIM TOO MUCH THEY’D LOSE UHHHHGR” (That’s what I sound like when I speak for those of you who are curious about that). But then a bunch of losses happened and then I went to jail during the All Star break and then this post was just sitting there and here we are. Really good article so far? Really GREAT article so far. I really need to talk about my feelings, everyone…

Now, before I start I just want you to know that even though your mother and I will be sleeping on separate futons for the foreseeable future, we still love you as much as we did yesterday, MAYBE EVEN MORE and that further, I love this team and I would have written this if they won every game on that Jah forsaken road trip.

Look, this is a sporting goods team, I get it. You win some, you lose some, it was the pizza of times, it was the far less popular calzone of times. I am really enjoying all of this winning the Sens are doing this season, loving it all day and all night. Forgive old uncle Me for breaking out the same old story, but for fans of a team that was predicted nearly across the board to end up with a bottom 5 lottomax finish AT BEST, seeing Les Boys challenge for a place in the top neighborhood of the East has felt like one big ecstasy fueled weekend in Cabo San Lucas with Denis Potvin and his massive entourage.

So, that just about wraps it it up…yadda yadda yadda, it’s been a whirl of wind, I can put my arm back on, you can’t so play saf— wait, I didn’t get around to talking about anything yet…

 As fun as all this winning (and only mild amounts of losing!) has been, is anyone else out there worried about the prospect of seeing Craig Anderson run out of fuel late in the season…no reason why I’m calling it ‘late in the season’, nope, not superstitious at all… *turns around 6 and a half times, says playoffs backwards and spits on two mirrors* anyway what was I saying? Oh, right, yes…

When Little Man Tate (I’m talking about Anderson here – no idea why I called him that, can we just get this weird nickname off the ground already? #littlemantate) came to town, word on the street was that he likes a lot of consecutive starts and as a Sens fan I thought, “Wait, don’t goalies just start as many games as they win in a row and once they lose one they get benched for an equally shaky goalie who is not sure if he is the back up or starter?”

Remember them times, back in the Jon Paddock few months era, how he out and out said he employed a “win and you’re in” strategy with the goaltending tandem? Did anyone else hear him say that this was his actual plan then look reflectively into their Kalhua Mudslide and quietly muse, “Win …and you’re…in? All those years of videogame hockey have paid OFF…I suddenly think I have what it takes to be an NHL coach!!” Just kidding, Jon Paddock isn’t an NHL coach *rim shot*

When Paddock was fired, there was a lot of ‘meet the new boss, same as the old boss’ when it came to how the players were yelled at and how the goalie tandems where truly treated as such.

Do I think it came in part from Ottawa’s goaltenders being a revolving door of guys who didn’t exactly help make exceptional cases for themselves and/or died of injuries? Yes, I do. I also think goalies are psychopaths made of magic, habits and superstitions and have to know their place in the world.

Even Brian Elliot who would periodically do things like go on huge win streaks, post back to back shutouts, get named one of NHL three stars of the week and STILL never seemed to feel like the established number one. I am not all that floored that Elliot has had a great season. He always had tons of potential but could never achieve like he is now in St Louis on the Sens squad he was a part of. He needed a change of scenery where people didn’t know to not believe in him yet and I think the culture change has allowed him to thrive. Good for him. *burrrp* AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAnyway, when Elliot was given the heave ho and Andy came to town, not only did he put up a 50 save OT shutout over the leafs, he also had the audacity to not completely implode for the rest of the season! I don’t think I was the only one holding my breath wondering “Heavens to Grundo, is this the thing of legend? The starting goalie that has been prophesized?”

The question was answered when Andy was resigned for four years (whew) and then good fortune struck, a rebuild was initiated, a new coach was hired and expectations changed drastically.

Instead of defiantly stinking against the odds, the Senators were just supposed to plain stink. Oh, and as the 2011-2012 season kicked in stink they did. Did I mention how just to make Anderson feel like the startinest goalie in town, BryMurr resigned Alex Auld, backup of all back ups?

So, Anderson had quite a few pucks get past him early in the season. He saw his GAA inflate and save percentage deflate, he’s been pulled his fair share of times and straight up had bad games. Yet, here we are at the end of January, he’s the undisputed #1. And how.

Those constant starts have given Andy a chance to heat up, to steal games, to give those early season doubters something to chew on. But will all the trust that Paul MacLean has put in Anderson going to come back to bite the Senators? Three game slide aside, not so far, though I can’t help but keep think that there is still plenty of season left.

I will put myself out there in saying that I really like Anderson. I think he can handle the work load but he’s still a human being. Human beings get tired and hurt. Anderson has so far played in 47 of  52 games. Damn! What if he needs a “rest” for whatever reason? Points are only going to get more valuable as the season unfolds and I think it’s not much of a secret that Alex Auld has looked colder than Eugene Melnyk’s Desk Fridge.

That’s not to completely fault Auld. He has had the exact opposite season as Andy. He’s never really gotten the chance to prove much of anything so far. That said, I haven’t really been enamored from what I’ve seen of him either. I’m actually pretty happy to see Anderson in game after game, I just don’t know if this model is sustainable.

Currently, Andy is on pace for 73 starts. Yeah, that’s seven three. This amount of games for a goalie seems other worldly to me but Andy has thrived in the past when handed a heavy workload.

In the 2009-10 season when he basically single handedly won Varada his hockey pool out of nowhere, Anderson played 71 regular season games. Of course, many believe that Andy had carried the surprising Avalanche team a little too much and by the time the playoffs rolled around that he looked out of gas. Colorado were knocked out by the Sharks in 6 games.

I didn’t watch any of that series because mom and weekend dad (Rick, who I HATE) said it’s lights out at 9pm SHARP but judging by the numbers it would appear that he did pretty well. A .933 save percentage and 2.62 goals against are damn pretty decent numbers for a goalie on a team that badly outmatched. Not so decent looking in the annuls of history are the 2 goals Statsny, Duchesne and O’Reilly combined for. Also they were playing the Sharks who are just going to dominate (THE EARLY ROUNDS OF) the playoffs *no rim shot* Perhaps Craig would fare better with a stronger Senators squad in front of him. In a more wide open East to boot. That is of course if he’s good to go should such a point in time arrive.

In the off-season when Lehner was coming off his stellar Whatever the Calder Cup Playoffs MVP Trophy is Called winning performance and Auld was resigned, I remember hearing rumblings that Auld would be receiving spot duty only (so far so true), and that Lehner would be called up to fill in for any extensive stretches needed. I suppose we may or may not see if that is the actual plan but with a tough season of battling injuries on a Binghamton squad that t’aint what it used to be, it remains doubtful that we’ll see much of Lehner this year.

The Senators are more of a bubble team now than they were a few weeks ago after struggling through what appeared to be a draining road trip and all those games they have in hand over the rest of the division aren’t making things look locked up any time soon. Stay well soon Craig Anderson!  What do you think is the best plan?
*waits*… *takes sip of port while staring at you* …*waaaaits*

“LEAFS SUCK”: while at a game where the Leafs are not playing.

Yes, they do. This is a matter of statistical fact; you only need to look at the standings to know this. But pointing this out during a game when they’re not even around is like being that guy who wears a Leafs jersey to a Sens game where the Leafs aren’t playing. It’s only telegraphing your insecurities to the world. (For Sens fans: that they can’t beat the Leafs in the playoffs; for Leafs fans: that their fathers hate them.)

“HEATLEY SUCKS:” When playing whoever Heatley’s recently been traded to this time.

Sure, he’s not that great for a player making eight million dollars this year. But where telling him he sucks might run counter to the whole idea of his general history of excellence, and thus be an expression of just how much we hate him because HE WRONGED US (or whatever), he also legitimately sucks now. I can just imagine any non-Sens fan watching on TV being like, “Well, yeah. You gave him that contract.” Makes us look like the bitter dump-ee.

“SHOOT:” At any time of the game.

Because the worst thing a team can do is listen to the advice of thousands and thousands of people who have never really given a serious thought to dedicating some time to an endeavour, let alone the kind of time required to understand something at a professional level. This is especially true in Ottawa, where 85% of those in attendance work a government job where they can’t really describe their responsibilities. Shouting “SHOOT” is like standing over a civil servant’s shoulder and yelling “WORK.” It doesn’t mean anything.

“DO SOMETHING.” The ultimate indication that you don’t really like hockey that much.

I don’t know what to say. That you exemplify all that our disgusting commercial lifestyle encourages? That instant satisfaction is not something you will encounter when watching a three hour sporting event where the score is often 2-1 or 3-2? That these guys are constantly “doing something” and that perhaps learning to appreciate those things that are not scoring is sometimes also pretty cool? Would you stand in a restaurant and yell “HUNGRY” over and over again until the situation remedies itself?

And lo, did the Ottawa Senators begin a casual dominance hastened to an end by the hated Winnibargian Jethisens

 Varada

You might have heard that Ottawa is rebuilding. Well, sorry, but you’re wrong. They’re sitting 5th in the conference, their playoff probability is up in the high-80s these days, and Murray is saying things about adding at the deadline. I’m not really a fan of your 2nd-round-pick-for-Andy-Sutton sorta deals (though I don’t hate them either). Especially because we don’t have a 2nd round pick anymore (THANKS A LOT, KYLE) and Kuba’s not going anywhere. What I would love is for Murray to add someone at the deadline that will make an impact, but that the team also has a realistic chance of re-signing long-term.

I don’t know about those chances, by my dream acquisition begins and ends with Zach Parise. With Alfredsson set to retire either this year or next, the team is going to need a winger with a scoring touch who is known for solid leadership and responsible two-way hockey. Wishful thinking, I know: Parise is the best pending UFA on the market, which means he’s bound for Toronto, New York, or Philadelphia. (And some other, previously-coveted UFA is bound for the Swiss League or the minors to make room. Salary cap schmalery schmap.)

According to this totally authoritative piece (Sun Media, you say? Who is this enterprising Bruce Garrioch fellow?) it would take a “young player, a prospect, and a 1st round pick” to get him. The latter two of those Ottawa has. The first I can’t imagine them parting with, unless you consider Nick Foligno sufficient trade bait. (He’s not.) Would you be willing to trade, say, Mika Zibanejad (especially now that we’ve got this other 2nd line center guy)? How about a Jared Cowen?

Any other UFAs on this list that tickle your belly? There ain’t much. Ales Hemsky? Shane Doan? Alex Semin? Tuomo Ruutu? We could probably get Brad Boyes for about $50. It says here we could trade for Filip Kuba.
Anyway – I would go all out to get Zach Parise, and then throw everything at him to sign long-term. What say you?

James

I would not could not on a train, I would not could not listening to Nirvana’s “On A Plain” (now available on iTunes)!

Before I get into it, it was too bad both Cullen and Sutton couldn’t be kept around, I liked those guys during their short stints. They were good acquisitions at the time but in the long run I guess it kind of worked out because of their respective ages and the current team model dont really mesh. I liked them for the Sens then, but the now Sens dont really need them.

All that said, “I’m well over it, mate” – British People. I don’t really disagree with your idea of “if we’re going to get someone let’s get someone next level.” To me clearly this is not a team that is in all that big a need to acquire a gritty two way forward who can stop em, drop em or shut em down open up shop em (Zack Smith) or an aging but still effective power play specialist (Sergei Gonchar) or blah di blah. The team currently has a lot of the kind of guys Murray would try to pick up in the past. Mayyyybe we see Kuba go b/c of his expiring contract (gotta get that second back) and Phillips aint goin nowhere even if he could because I cant see the Sens moving him after 1000 games with the organization. The optics of that would be really bad. Who are we Montreal? (I kid, all teams GMs have the capacity for that kind of crap).

Back to the essence, no, I would not pay a Mika Zibanejad, Jared Cowen (that guy would be the DUMBEST to give up. Its’ not like there’s other 20 year old Dmen laying around, ready to step in a play 25 mins a night! Stand PAT BryMurr, you won that hand already)…I don’t even think I would pay a Nick Foligno, a first round pick that’s playing great right now. I wouldn’t want to part with the any of the first round picks acquired just a few months ago. So what I’m saying is I basically hope they don’t swap anybody right now.

Since when is this such a “thing” too? Just b/c your team makes the playoffs you gotta go get some other guy? I know, I know…it’s about giving your team the best chance and stuff but I think IT IS STILL A REBUILD (to me at least). I would love for Turris to be the big move of the year. I think he’s a top six acquisition that has made the team better. Mission: So Far So Goodomplished. It worked out great, quit while you’re ahead Murray! I want him to hold a press conference at 6am on trade deadline day and with his best J. Jonah Jamieson voice be all “IM NOT CHANGIN A GAAAAD DAAAMN THING. ANYONE WHO WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL CALL ME!” and then slap on of those 1-800-EAT-SHIT bumper stickers on his forehead, pose for pictures for like 5 seconds and then drop the mic and leave.

Am I going to get that? Probably not. As such I am actually hoping for a Jesse Winchester/Brian Lee for a different KIND of Jesse Wincheser/Brian Lee type deals that we’ll forget about in two seasons. Actually, I would probably like to see a deal for a different backup goalie seeing as Anderson is playing literally every single game right now. That’s the one thing that hasn’t clicked for the Sens this year, otherwise there is some crazy good chemistry I wouldn’t mess with.  Remember when George W. Bush stayed the course and everything worked out amazing? I want that too.

The main thing that gets my mind grapes going about a big fish type acquisition/signing is that our 3rd highest scorer is THIRTY NINE and if he needs to be replaced or given a bit of a lesser role for the next 10 years that he is going to play, that’s gotta get done at some point. I think we’re finally at a stage where the prospects are plentiful, role players are working out and bigger stars are producing. I’d like to see if we have a Zack Parise in the system. It’s not outlandish to think that. We took three players in the first round and with Zibanejad playing the wing more and Silfverberg coming over, I think that sticking with them is a safer bet than giving up everything on the first date for a guy who could jump ship come summer.

Notice how I didn’t even get into Hemsky (blech, injury prone and can’t hang in Edmonton at this point?), Doan (I want the Sens to stay getting young not older), Alex Semin (I cant think of a good Kovalev joke right now but you could imagine if I could!), the OTHER Ruutu (mmmm, maybe I’d be down for this dude if the price was kind of low. Maybe Carolina would take Kuba for him…you KNOW they miss Kaberle).

No, I don’t know what this is either.

–

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Senators spend the first two periods being outshot, parading to the penalty box, and generally having no chance at the game, only to suddenly turn it on in the last period and pull out a win. That’s not surprising anymore. What’s surprising is that one key veteran is becoming less and less a part of the Senators’ surprising season.

While Jason Spezza, Sergei Gonchar, and Daniel Alfredsson are all enjoying bounceback seasons (Alfie even having reinvented himself as the clutch goal scorer rather than the two-way, do-everything, 30-minute-a-night guy), there is a conspicuous absence on the back-end. Chris Phillips, now relegated to the 3rd pairing with either Brian Lee or Matt Carkner, played between 15 and about 18 minutes a night in his last five games compared to rookie Jared Cowen’s 22 to 25. Even in this last game against Montreal, when Cowen was far from perfect, had trouble controlling the puck, and the team was giving up far too many chances, MacLean went to Cowen over Phillips again and again as his shut-down D.

Not a terrible situation: having a veteran player match up against lesser competition means, theoretically, that this team is deep. (Though the chances this team gives up and that Anderson has had to stand on his head most nights suggest otherwise.) Phillips isn’t hurting the club this season, but his diminishing role has consequences for the future of the team.

Filip Kuba has played himself into a new contract. It’s far from unanimous – I’m sure a few readers here will protest – but it surely wouldn’t be a surprise if Murray renews a defenceman now playing top pairing minutes and providing a steady partner to franchise defenseman Erik Karlsson. Gonchar still isn’t going anywhere with that contract, even with his improved play. There are players in Binghamton who deserve their shot, and who won’t cost this team $3MM a year to play on the 3rd pairing. There are also UFA options, and the team has boatloads of caproom.

I wasn’t a fan of the Phillips extension when it happened, but now it’s proving an awkward impediment to the development of young players and the rebuild in general. Lee and Carkner might also be cut lose to make room for young guys, but again: they’re making a third of Phillips’ salary.

Defensive depth has enormous value in this league, and having a player with Phillips’ history out there, even at half what he played last season, surely has some value. But with the emphasis now shifting towards paying our premier players big 2nd contracts and developing our young talent, it’s hard to imagine what the expensive, shut down defenseman who isn’t used to shut down anyone might bring outside the dressing room.