What is “compete level” anyway?

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WAIT WAIT WAIT: before you click away, this isn’t an article in which I try to quantify compete level.

I think that trying to quantify “effort” in pro sports is a game of diminishing returns—if you’re looking to consistently gain advantage over another group of pro athletes, “trying harder” or raising your “compete level” probably isn’t the way to do it. Some teams or players have lazy moments, but I would wager those are extremely insignificant outliers on an overall level of competition that, to us mere mortals, is unfathomable. Everybody tries hard. 

I suspect that when I hear “effort,” like when I hear “focus” or “leadership” or “grit,” what I’m actually hearing is an easy substitution for any number of more nuanced and complex reasons for why a team might stink. Effort is always unquantifiable, so, there can always be more of it. What’s worrisome is that you hear these platitudes the most from Paul MacLean.

Now, MacLean isn’t exactly going to get up in front of the media and outline the Xs and Os of his playbook for all the world to see. What else is he going to say other than, “We need to get ready for the next game, prepare properly, and raise our compete level”? But I’m telling you—if this is what the players are getting in the dressing room, I don’t know how mad we can be about the Sens’ current record. After almost half a season of hearing about compete level, it’s starting to sound obnoxiously disconnected from the real world.

Saddled with one of the lowest payrolls in the league, the team is still top 10 in offense—and that’s with Michalek, Conacher and Greening all disappearing from view. The goalies are facing more shots than normal; if you told Lehner he didn’t compete he’d bite you on the face. Even the much maligned defense has a guy like Karlsson, who plays 30 minutes a game and last night skated end-to-end and back on a single shift about six times that I counted.

I’ve already written about how if the team’s PK picks up even a little bit, or if they take fewer penalties, they’ll be in a good spot. Their possession stats are trending in the right direction. So how can you look at all of this and conclude that they should just “try harder”?

Defensive coverage and a stinky PK seem to be the problem, and really, they’ve been a problem all season. Are special teams not assistant coach Dave Cameron’s area? Oh, and did you see Cameron screaming at Spezza from the bench last night after another blown play? Something isn’t right in his shop.

We don’t have access to the dressing room, or to the coach’s thoughts or strategies, but there’s a worrisome disconnect between the stats and the grizzled-leader stuff MacLean gives us whenever he’s asked for an explanation for his team’s poor play.

Stuff like this:

“We’re an inconsistent group. We can’t get the puck out of our zone. We play good against good teams. We play bad against teams below us. That’s just a lack of focus, a lack of leadership and that’s a lack of us wanting to play in the National Hockey League and be an elite team. We are a long, long way from being an elite team.”

So, when asked for a reason why the team is good against good teams and bad against bad teams, MacLean offers that we’re bad because we’re bad, and if we wanted to not be bad, we would be good. The reason we don’t want to be good? We don’t actually want to play in the NHL.

This stuff is maddening to hear night-in and night-out. And as frustrating as it is for us, you’ve got to really feel for the team if those are their marching orders.

James Day Preview: The Ottawa Senators visit The Devils of Newark

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HEY HEY!

It’s great to be back on the internet! I had to cool my heels south of the border for a minute. Let’s review how OUR Ott-a-wa Senatorrrrrrs did while I was away, shall we? *waits for Dot Matrix printout…tears off sheet, puts on crazy drinking straw glasses*  Mmmhmmm, okay I’m seeing barely beating the Sabrrrrres, getting heads kicked in by the Kiiiiiiiings and a completely unexpected win against one of the best teams in the league. Ahh, just as confusing as I left them!
I didn’t check out the Buffalo game because I don’t know, didn’t see the LA game because 5-2 LOSS DULY NOTED but I DID catch a good portion of the game against the Blues (WTYKY: Your Source for a guy who caught “a good portion” of a game!) I have to say watching the match up against St. Louis, I thought “Now THIS is what I expected the team to look like going into this season!”
Now I know it seems easy to cherry pick a game where the Senators defeated one of the league’s premier squads as an example of how they should play but let’s not forget it went to OT, and Ottawa nearly blew a power play through almost half the extra time. It was close! The win is great but to me it was the effort that was outstanding. If things turn around from here on out, they will play like the did against the Blues on a consistent basis, win or lose.

And now the unavoidable subject:
Don’t get me wrong I went to watch those highlights(?) against the Kings but when I read “Something-something Robin Lehner relieved Craig Anderson after he allowed two goals on four shots” I just said to my imaginary friend Ray-Ray, “I can’t fr*gging do this…” and shut down my #sic Intel Pentium II.
Look, the only person who’s given Anderson more chances to redeem himself than me has been Paul MacLean himself. I still think that vintage Andy is in there somewhere but what the hell man? Great to see he a had a really good game against Buffalo (required!) but as soon as he plays a good team things fall apart? In less than 5 shots? The East is a shitty conference but no denying it’s a competitive one. You have to be able to string together a couple good games and I feel he’s just been unable to do that so far. I guess he’s gotten inside his own head or something. I’m happy to see him put on the shelf for a minute. I don’t actually know if it will help but Ottawa needs to pile up some wins and Anderson’s not helping them do that right now. I hope he can sort it out because the skill is obviously there. It’s a position where the physical and mental truly meet and something has come unbalanced. SPEAKING OF MENTAL UNBALANCE, Robin Lehner will get his second straight start. I thought Lehner was a huge part of that win against St. Lou. He’s been able to put 3 wins together this year, something the team has only managed once this season. With games against much tougher opponents in Pittsburgh (who IIIIII haaate), Boston (x2, more like xBarf) and Washington starting next week to close out the year, this week would be a great opportunity to get some momentum going. Rookie netminder Martin Brodeur (who’s son is one year younger than Cody Ceci) gets the start for the Devils.

Hometown Boys Gunna Work It Out:
Much has been said of Cody Ceci’s heroic goal but what’s really fascinating beyond that is how comfortable he’s looked so far. Peep game on his slick breakout on this goal that I am currently in a committed romantic relationship with:

Now THAT’s the kind of zone exit you’ve come to expect from a defender playing his 3rd NHL game! With Methot missing another game as a healthy(?) scratch, the pressure will not be on Ceci to win the game again but to continue to look like he belongs in the game.
Much has been made of the Methot scratch thing but ASK me about how long it takes to feel back to normal after having a solid flu. With another game tomorrow night expect number 3 back then. I say no fire here.
On the subject of dudes getting it done, Jean Gabriel Pageau, the Franco so nice they named him twice, continues to stick with the big club. His two goals in his two limited call ups really speak not only to his ability to contribute no matter where he’s placed in the lineup but also to how much Cory Conacher is struggling to put one in the net. C’mon Big C, even Condra has 3 goals now. Would really love to see him get one what with Ben Bishop constantly rubbing his 18 and 5 record in our big dumb faces every single day.
Not complaining about their games but MacArthur and Ziba have been a little quiet lately. One of them could be due tonight. Milan Michalek, who in preparation for the future I sometimes forget is on the team, will play on Spezza’s wing along with Grizz. I don’t know whatever gets the guy going I guess?

I’m not going to even touch what the result of a win would mean for Ottawa’s place in the standings because it’s an absolute log jam.
So…thank you. Enjoy the ga–

You: But James, you barely talked about the New Jersey Devils aren’t you going to say anything e–

Does the Senators’ insistence on hitting make them easier to play against?

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There isn’t one thing you can point to to explain why this year’s Ottawa Senators have underperformed. Bad goaltending. Lack of secondary scoring. A sudden inability to transition the puck out of their own zone. An allergy to home ice and afternoon games. Daniel Alfredsson was actually a pretty useful player. The Western Conference in general. The list goes on.

Despite all of these shortcomings, it’s not as if the team has fallen off a cliff. As of today their playoff chances sit at about 20%, and they’re five points out of a wild card spot with underwhelming division rivals like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings hanging on by the skin of their teeth. They’re not going on extended losing streaks, or being blown out. Fix just one or two small things and maybe you see this team on the other side of the bubble.

The question is which of the many broken things you concentrate on when every loss makes recovery exponentially more difficult. MacLean has shown a remarkable faith in Craig Anderson, given that his play has sometimes ended the game by the first intermission, but it’s too easy to say “goaltending” when the trade market is frozen up due to lack of cap space or cash. Odds are this team ends the season with their $3.5MM starting goaltender. In other words, simply having a different team is not a solution to this team stinking.

However, there is one deficiency that seems a constant this year: Ottawa’s penalty kill is 24th in the league at about 79%, and they are the most penalized team in the league, having been shorthanded 141 times. (To contrast, San Jose, the least penalized team, has been shorthanded just 90 times.) These two stats may be related; your penalty kill will lag when it’s constantly out there.

So the question is whether to work on the penalty kill—which, in the absence of a trade market or a sudden strategic epiphany, seems unlikely to work—or to have the team actively try to take less penalties.

Perhaps surprisingly, Ottawa’s ratio of PK time to PP time is not too bad. They’re 21st in the league in that regard, which means they’re still drawing penalties, and their powerplay, at 13th in the league, is humming along. But that only reinforces the point that only a few less penalties and this team is in a much more favorable position to win games.

I imagine the most effective way to do this (outside of simply procuring additional skilled players) is to target players whose ratio of penalties-taken-to-penalties-drawn is particularly egregious, and to look a little more closely at how team behaviour drives penalty taking.

I’ve already written about how Chris Neil’s P-to-PD is a career worst–and, also, almost league worst. He takes 2.8 penalties per 60 minutes of play to only 0.3 penalties drawn. That’s horrendous. He’s second in the league in minor penalties—not the stuff you associate with enforcers, but the really boneheaded stuff like impeding a player with your stick or body.

To contrast, Zack Smith is also in the top ten in the league in minor penalties taken, but his penalties-drawn is slightly higher—he might cause some goals against, but with a good powerplay, you might still score more goals with Zack Smith on the team than not. He’s not a part of the problem.

The next closest Ottawa player is Jason Spezza, way down at 66th in the league. Interestingly, Spezza’s penalties drawn per 60 is 0.0, obviously lower than his penalties taken. That’s a weird stat for someone who’s supposed to be your most skilled player. Chris Phillips also takes more penalties than he draws. So, what you have is this team’s core consistently taking more penalties than it draws.

Does this speak to a leadership problem in Ottawa? Purely for fun, let’s look at Daniel Alfredsson’s P-to-PD…oh look, he draws more penalties than he takes, 0.9 per 60 to 0.4. Nothing to see here.

Still–how do you fix this? Many minor penalties are taken because the player is out of position, is being outworked, or isn’t skilled enough to strip the puck without impeding play. How do you fix this without resorting to “get a different team”-style solutions?

Which brings me to the second thing I noticed, and what the coaching staff might actually be in a position to affect. Ottawa is one of the “hittingest” teams in the league. I know the way that hits are tracked is not exactly scientific, but individual stats will serve our purpose here as a rough measure.

Tyler Dellow over at MC79 has written extensively about whether there’s any correlation between hitting and scoring. In a nutshell: teams that outhit seem to score less than teams that are outhit, in part because you usually don’t have the puck if you’re trying to hit, and in part because of the type of players you’re putting out on the ice in order to be a team that outhits. Going out of your way to hit or be a team that hits doesn’t necessarily make you a harder team to play against.

Ottawa has five players in the top 27 in the league in hitting: Colin Greening (3rd) Chris Neil (4th) Zack Smith (21st) Jared Cowen (24th) and Marc Methot (27th). (Chris Phillips is next at 68th, and Bobby Ryan – swoon—is 78th. Is there anything he can’t do?) Of these players, Greening and Smith are the only ones who draw more penalties than they take, though it’s slight in both cases. Every other player on this list, outside of Bobby Ryan, who’s not really in the hitting conversation so low down on the list, take more penalties than they draw. (And in the case of Chris Neil it’s a huge, huge disparity.)

Given that the club’s hit leaders are also some of their most penalized players, there may be something to the argument that a hit thrown leads to a player out of position, or an unnecessary roughing penalty. Someone with more access and skill than I—say, someone inside the Senators organization with time and resources on their hands—may wish to look at how often a minor penalty is incurred in the seconds following a hit. If there’s a trend there, asking that these specific players—Neil, Cowen and Methot—no longer try to hit everything in sight may be one small step towards righting the ship.

(I’m not even getting into the fact that Cowen’s dangerous hit on Buffalo’s Zemgus Girgensons led to a two game suspension and left the team low on defensive depth–a much more straightforward example of how hitting has a higher cost than benefit.)

What we might also learn from the hitting and penalty-ratio statistics is which players are making smart hits. Perhaps we can take a moment here to appreciate Colin Greening, who hits like an animal and doesn’t seem to get excessively penalized for it. Or Bobby Ryan, who seems to hit a lot for a scorer but obviously not at the expense of his scoring. If there is a correlation between hitting and minor penalties, then we can learn which players are hitting for hitting’s sake. They might be hitting because it makes them look good, but it’s actually hurting the team.

And if that’s the case, then benching or scratching Chris Neil to send a message about responsible play might be a start. It’s not as if Ottawa is lacking a fighter, or will miss Neil’s offensive production. But something has to be done for this team to understand that throwing more of the same hits at skilled teams only lands you back in the penalty box.

Combine fewer penalties with Anderson’s game recovering even a little bit and the team learning to score in the shootout and there might be hope for this season yet.

Varada Day Preview: Ottawa Slow Starts V. The Buffalo Buddha Bars

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Hey hey hey my beautiful babies, this is James….*record scratching noise* *James looks up from microphone in plush WTYKY studio, sees Varada on the other side of the sound-proof glass. He’s holding what looks to be a severed Santa Clause head* *James hits ejector seat button, which not only isn’t connected to anything but is actually just one of those ‘That Was Easy!’ Business Depot buttons, then slowly pushes himself out of the room on a roll-y chair.*

Hi guys, Varada here. James is celebrating his birthday, as one does, by travelling to New York City. (Oh, that old cliché thing that you do on your birthday. *burps up Jack Astor’s breakfast*) I can’t commit to filling in for every James Day Preview, or even being a fraction as funny as James is on his worst day, but TODAY…today is my day. My employer is ok with me spending time on this (I assume). Good thing I don’t work in health care research or anything. *pushes formula for cancer cure under some papers detailing Chris Neil possession statistics* Let’s get started!

So, where we are…at…is

Ottawa, looking absolutely pumped after winning in the shootout against a disappointing Philadelphia team who has owned them this year (sigh) then rolled into the home barn of the worst team in the league and…were thoroughly outplayed. If not for Buffalo’s epic inability to put a play together, and but for the grace of god, AKA a few Lehner saves (this is as close as I get to mentioning that one goal he gave up, which… *pinches nose*) that would have been a regulation loss. I mean, the Sens needed to have what was clearly a goal against waved off because of everyone’s favorite call – inteeeeeeeeeeent to blooooooooooooooow – in order to SQUEAK INTO OT against the Buffalo Sabres and get a point in an eventual loss. Sun rise, sun set.

But hey, here’s their chance to correct that embarrassing performance. They’re no longer playing back-to-back games, and it’s on home ice, which, according to this internet website I’m consulting, is supposed to “be an advantage.” Hmmm, let me check that again. *pushes glasses down on nose, looks at computer screen and furrows brow for 17 straight minutes* That can’t be right.

Cowen: currently my least favorite Ottawa Senator!

Look, Jared Cowen is a big guy, right? *checks off ‘Big Guy’ on checklist of things every GM wants, along with ‘Stick To-It-iveness’* What else do you want? Look how big he is. Big like a barn. Good tough barn, that Jared Cowen.

Well, for a start, I’d also like the biggest guy on my team to not try to actively kill other players. The Datsyuk hit I thought was eeeehhhhhhhhhh too close to call but Pavel did miss time and in hindsight I’d err on the side of ‘filthy.’ That hit on Tuesday, though…I mean, Jesus, that was an 18 year old kid Cowen just tried to decapitate. He’s not exactly tiny (he’s listed at 6-2), but bent forward as he was, and with Cowen being 6-5, it was a bit of a blindside hit. I know, I know—Gergemensonianness needs to be aware while skating through the neutral zone. But that’s two borderline hits for Cowen in a short amount of time, to go along with, you know, not being able to move the puck to save his life. Apples and oranges, ladies and gentlemen! Apples and oranges and Cowen acting like a dirtbag.

Cowen sits out the first of his two games while suspended, and I’m assuming Gryba draws into the lineup to provide the exact same style of game as Cowen at a fraction of the price. Karlsson’s ice-time increases from 37 to 75 minutes tonight as a result.

Who gets the start in the fishing net?

I don’t know, I’m writing this thing at 8:15am. It should be Lehner – give the friggin’ guy a chance to get on a roll, since “getting on a roll” is pretty much the only thing that’s going to save our season at this point. It’ll probably be Anderson.  I mean hey, you don’t pay a guy $3.5MM a year and not try to get him back on the horse right? But this is game 33 so…the horse is out of the barn, on the bus, in the next county, working at a Harvey’s inside a Home Depot inside a Walmart. Andy, bubby, bubbaloo: get comfortable already. Where’s that zen exterior we know and love so much? So tense, these shoulders of yours, you’re going to pull something, eat you’re so skinny.

The funny thing is that Lehner has always looked absolutely killer (both metaphorically and actually, in real life, like a killer) when his competition, be it Andy or Bishop, is also playing well. Now that he has the chance to unequivocally STEP UP (TM 2013 WTYKY) and declare himself the Ottawa Senators’ new starting goaltender…he’s no longer stealing games. I mean, I get it: stealing games in the NHL is a hard thing to do. But I feel like Lehner is one 47 save shutout away from Andy being pushed out to sea on an ice floe.

Sportsnet Ushers in the Next 1000 years of Coverage by….Breaking Coverage During the Shootout

For what it’s worth:

“In keeping with the regional broadcast regulations set forth by the NHL, there are broadcast boundaries for Sportsnet’s regional NHL games, and we are contractually obligated to follow them,” said spokesperson Jennifer Neziol. “The viewing region for Ottawa Senators games includes viewers who, depending on where they live in this region, receive either Sportsnet Ontario or Sportsnet East as their primary channel. During Ottawa Senators broadcasts, we change the feed for viewers in Ottawa receiving Sportsnet Ontario to the Sportsnet East feed. (Tuesday) night, as a result of human error, the Sportsnet East feed was turned off too early, and the feed reverted back to the Sportsnet Ontario feed prior to the end of the game. We are taking this issue very seriously and moving forward, we will be implementing more emergency checks with our master control to ensure this doesn’t happen again.”

Ok then.

Aside: cutting away to a commercial of Nick Kypreos explaining just how well he Knows the Leafs (“Kessel is worth every penny of that contract” – is this an unpopular opinion?) is exactly the sort of thing that fires every single trigger in a Senators fan’s psyche. If you’re going to cut away in the 40th round of a shootout, don’t put Kypreos’ mug on the screen to talk about the other Ontario team who wasn’t even playing that night.

What if Ottawa doesn’t win this one?

I don’t want to be all-panic-all-the-time, as Ottawa has pleeeeeeenty of time left to fully and completely shit the bed and we’ll need some panic left over for when they do. But I’m just saying that there are going to be a lot of people getting Ottawa Senators hockey tickets in their stockings this year (I almost always do and AGAIN WITH THE TICKET AGAINST BOSTON FUCK MOM ARE YOU DOING THIS ON PURPOSE?). Going into the New Year with, say, a record within spitting distance of .500 will make a big difference between those tickets being the The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Adventure (gold cartridge) of presents and the $15 gift certificate to Mark’s Work Wearhouse of presents. It’s already starting to feel like a bit of a chore to watch this team slog it out from two-goal deficits only to lose in the shootout. Don’t make me be reluctant about penciling in a Sens game in my calendar.

The thing is, the teams ahead of us in the Flortheast aren’t exactly racking up the poker chips right now. Toronto is experiencing their much-anticipated Neo-trying-to-jump-the-gap-between-two-buildings-in-the-Matrix moment. Montreal was just annihilated, which is hopefully a portent of things to come. (Easy there, I’ve got Price in my fantasy pool.) Detroit is the wishy-washiest of contenders I’ve ever seen. (EIGHT OT losses and nobody talks a gang of shit about how they can’t ‘get it done when it counts’?) For example, Toronto losing in regulation last night had a greater effect on Ottawa’s playoff chances than the loser point we earned against the Buffalo Matt Moulsons. Suffice to say: could we get a solid REGULATION HOME WIN AGAINST THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE? “At least we got a point” isn’t going to feel too good this time around.

This is where we are, December 2013: “Fan With Internet Blog to Senators: Can We Please Beat the Worst Team in the League? Like, Handily, Even?”

Enjoy the game! (James: call me. Your mother and I are worried sick.)

4D buffalo JDP

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James Day Preview: The Ottawa Shootouts visit the Buffalo Mozzarella

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Buffalo Ottawa JDP

Aye dawg aye,

Remember when Ottawa rolled into the city of Florida to play the Panthers and everyone was all, “Youz guyz HAVE to beat a team this terrible,” and then the Sens were somewhat expectedly victorious? Good times? Great times. Well, I’ve got news for your respective crews, this team, the Buffalo Sabres, no seriously brace hard for this, IS ACTUALLY WORSE than the Panthers. Now get ready for this bit: They are worse by a good margin.
To put it in perspective, I spent a fair portion of yesterday’s game preview, that you understandably skimmed through most of, discussing the fact that by mid December Ottawa had only won a putrid 4 games on home ice. Well, a day later that total has now skyrocketed to 5.
You: That’s a nice little fact you have there James, why do you bring it up?
James: Well, I’m quite glad you asked that, you. I’m pointing this out because BUFFALO HAS WON ONLY 6 GAMES TOTAL THIS SEASON.
Like, damn, even the Oilers (who beat Ottawa on home ice btw) are laughing at that.
Following a roller coaster of emotions that was last night’s game, Ottawa rolls into Buffalo with pretty much as good an opportunity as they’re going to get to string together 2 straight wins; something they haven’t done in over a month.

You know how sometimes when you look up Buffalo’s roster and you’re just trying to not be a complete dick about your game preview but then you look at the plus/minus column and you’re just sitting there all, “How am I supposed to avoid being a complete and utter dick about this?” when you notice that they don’t have a single player who’s been with the team for over 10 games who has a plus rating? Don’t you hate when that happens? I know as well as anyone that plus/minus isn’t the most telling stat in hockey in terms of providing the most accurate picture of a player’s on ice performance but not one guy? I mean come ON you guys, fans are paying their hard earned money to watch you play…so…yeah…HEADLINE.
What was I talking about? Oh yeah, holy crap you’d think that David McConnor kid was available in this year’s draft with a tank job like this. And I say this as a fan of the team that performed the ultimate tank job with less than sexy results. Youch.
Outside of relatively decent seasons from Matt Moulson (who is currently just edging Mika Zibanejad out of the top spot for NHL eyebrow leader) and Cody Hodgson and a …I don’t know competent 12 points from Tyler Ennis things get uh-ga-lee after that especially in terms of goal scoring. Oh sure captain Steve Ott and Marcus Foligno have reached the offensive heights of penalty killer Erik Condra and shutdown defender Jared Cowen’s respective 3 goal output but after that? Well, I’ll just save time by saying they have either 2 goals, 1 goal or zero goals.
Perspective: Chris Neil has 4 goals.
Further perspective: A struggling Jason Spezza still has 27 points in 30 games.

Speaking of Spezz, in terms of Ottawa’s offense, I suppose the big news is they finally got a big monkey off their backs by taking a shootout. The only goal by the hand of the captain with an absolutely glorious move. Look I don’t know whether you’ve LACED “EM” UP or not (it doesn’t matter all are welcome here) but can any of us put together how you could commit to looking like you’re going to go backhand five hole all the way to the blue paint and THEN end up going far stick side AFTER that? Wow.

Interesting fact there, 15,000 of those views are all me.

Clarke MacArthur has also picked a pretty great time to heat up as well. And by “heat up” I simply mean score more points on top of being a pretty much perfect hockey player. On both of his two goals last night all I could think was, “Well, when you’re hot like that they just start going in for you.” Cool thought, me!
Bryan Murray I know you’re reading this and I want to say thanks for signing Clarke and Bobby (who had an unreal feed last night). Ah screw it, let the good times roll, have a look:

That MacArthur – Spezza – Ryan line looking pretty awesome there.

So…
I’m always tempted to make fun of Ryan Miller because he seems like a smarty pants doofus with seriously the BLERST hair who– see, it’s hard! Anyway, looking this guy up…all that stuff aside? This guy gets the lion’s share of starts on a team with 6 wins on the season, has faced the 4th most shots in the league and still has a save percentage of .917? All I can say to that is respect. He is all Buffalo has going for them heading into tonight. It’s well documented that Miller is a UFA after this season and he is truly earning his way onto a better team. Fun fact: Literally every other team is a better team.

Though Craig Anderson still can’t stop the opening 10 shots (my least favorite thing!) I can’t deny that he had a good game last night. Again, not great but good. Still letting them in early, still surrendering over 3 goals, still giving up leads at back breaking times, but he also saved the team’s skin a few times (especially late) and ended the game by going perfect in the shootout. I bring this up because maybe Andy will start turning it around from here and I will get the goaltending controversy I’ve been wishing all season for: Battle of the Good Goaltenders. Robin Lehner gets the start tonight and I’m glad to say, has a pretty solid act to follow. A poor performance tonight and his stock will no doubt drop with the team. Even though this game is against the Buffalo Sabres it’s a pretty big one for Lehnny because of last night.

This is starting to be like making fun of a horrific crime scene but…
Did you know that Christian Ehrhoff is supposed to be Buffalo’s version of Erik Karlsson? He is on pace for 6 fewer points than Erik Karlsson currently has.
I cannot think of anything else to say about the Sabre’s defense.

I don’t want to get too excited here but Cowen and Wiercioch have looked a bit better the last couple of games. Here’s to hoping a home and home with the league’s worst team can further boost their confidence.

Enjoy the game! 

Of note: To the ones of people who read these things (sorry about these things btw) Thursday I will be travelling to the Windy City of Angely Love, New York City for some undeserved R and R. As such there will be little to no James Day Preview until I make my glorious return. Thanks for all of your messages of encouragement to write less that have inspired me to go away for awhile!

James Day Preview: #AccommodatingSens host the Flyadelphia Phillers

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Please send any questions you have to @superdigestive b/c I have no idea.

Please send any questions you have to @superdigestive b/c I have no idea.

Ugh……*notices you* Oh uhhh… Hi! I mean,

Hi everybody,

Guess what! The Sens REALLY need to win this goddamn game for a few reasons:
1. If they don’t win, well, if you think they’re low in the standings now…
2. Philadelphia Flyers: Not that good.
3. Ottawa hasn’t beaten Philadelphia this year for some reason. A loss tonight would mean a season sweep…I mean…………..c’mon.
4. A home win would be, y’know, NICE. Still only 4 home wins on the season.
5. 4 home wins this season
6. 4  wins at home so far this season
7. The Ottawa Senators have won only 4 games on home ice this season.
8. We’re behind the Bluejackets in the standings and I would like to stop butting out cigarettes into my forearm for five minutes.
9. *Charlie Brown music*
10. 

Headline: SENS SHOCKER, ZIBA TO COACH “I HAD SEX WITH YOUR WIFE!!!!” 
Listen, your father and I would like to have a serious discussion with you about how the world works. When a man loves a woman very, very much he might ask her to spend the rest of his life with her in holy macaroni. If some day his wife sleeps with a young, handsome Swedish forward of Iranian-Finnish decent, in order to exact revenge the man will banish that young forward to the forth line of the professional hockey team he coaches because we’re all sensitive people with so much to give and the world’s a complicated place AND THIS IS THE ONLY WAY I COULD POSSIBLY EXPLAIN WHY THIS KEEPS HAPPENING. Also Mike Hoffman is not playing for some reason.

A word on Zibanejad: You don’t sit in 4th place in goals among forwards and play like a top 6 player without making a few enemies. I don’t know what the purpose of putting a guy who’s been putting up points on the fourth line is. Here’s a guess, is it to finally “get Kassian going”? I’m perplexed.

A word on Kassian: Honestly, I’m not opening the enforcer debate. I actually didn’t have much of a problem with Carkner nor Konopka. Carkner could take a regular shift as a bottom pairing d man and Zenon was a faceoff expert (two uses!). Kassian averages less than 4 minutes per game. In a game Ottawa needs to win as desperately as this one, it feels like we’re weakening our forward corps because something-something the Flyers have Jay Rosehill. Honestly, you don’t HAVE to fight that guy (ask Brooks Orpik) and instead you could give Binghamton captain and points leader Mike Hoffman a fourth game to try to find his way. Just advice from a garbage fisherman from Garbage Island.

A word on Conacher: Hmm, let’s see here, *puts on reading glasses, opens latest issue of Ottawa Senators Aficionado magazine* Let’s take a look here mmm ah, Conacher, Cory. Hmmkay, 29 games playyyed, 2 goals, 2 assists *squints* oops says THREE assists. Hmph the more you know. I say, pretty #sic season so far.

A word on Hoffman: I suppose when you’re given top six time immediately upon getting called up you have to do something with it very quickly as it is very valuable ice time and ice time is ice money and ice money is icepreapprovedpaydayloans.com. Since he is waiver bound upon demotion, I suppose Hoff is up for a long look and this is a precautionary benching to keep him on his toes going forward (evidenced by this morning’s apparent bag skate he was on the business end of).

Heyyyyy Craig Anderson gets the start. I don’t even know what that means anymore THANKS FOR READING!
Move over Robin Lehner, there’s a NEW goalie in town who can’t get it done in the shootout! I kid because I love. It’s hard to judge a hockey team on their performance in the shootout because it’s not actually the game of hockey! What? Has James broken his LEGENDARY silence on how he feels about the shootout? Hmm not really though admittedly the Sens going something like 0-10 in the shootout has definitely made me hate it until further notice.
What was I talking about again? Oh yes, Graig Mandesson. Have we traveled from a universe where we had a goalie who was bound for Vezina glory just one season ago (IN THIS CALENDAR YEAR BTW) to a parallel existence where I am unsure about that same guy’s ability to out duel Steve Mason? What world is this? If I smash my head into a brick wall in this dimension will the James who is watching excellent Craig Anderson in the parallel world also feel it? I’m asking because I’m very jealous of him and want him to experience my pain.
Despite both of them having terrible records this year, I feel Lehner has provided the best chance of bailing out the team and so now I go into every Anderson start feeling extremely shaky. I’m not ready to throw in the towel on Andy or anything but he neeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeds to finally make our beloved Steve REST HIS CASE and stop the first ten shots of the game before I’m ready to go back to believing that this is the same Craig Anderson that we know and love. It’s a huge game tonight Craig, you’ve played bigger games PLEASE MAKE ME A BELIEVER AGAIN!

Does anyone else feel like Karlsson has been playing out of his mind good lately? 
Even in losses I’ve been pretty blown away by some of the stuff he’s been doing out there. Did you see how pumped he was when he tied that game that wont be named? ICYMI, his celly looked a little something…. like this:

Cool eh?
As for the rest of the defense umm…I don’t know. Figure it out, you guys? Wiercioch has been better lately. Uhh, Philips is 3rd in power play points (????)…Methot was invited to Olympic camp at one point? Hold on, I’m floundering here. This calls for back up:
Me: SIRI, please make something out of this:
<bleep BLOOP> SIRI: I’m sorry I cannot make out with something Mark Methylamine at this time.  

A closing note on the importance of this game: The East has been pathetically bad to the point that the Senators hopes aren’t even completely dashed despite RARELY winning. The odds of them making the playoffs have decreased significantly in the past couple of weeks but again due to the pathetic conference featuring things like Toronto’s dropping 7 of their last 10 games (ACCEPT OF COURSE AGAINST YOUR #ACCOMMODATINGSENS ON HOME ICE), the boys still have a glimmer of hope. It would seem the Viking Death Ship is turning around in terms of overall play but to me the bigger picture is this: Is a team that has only managed to pull out 4 wins on home ice by mid December and is only ahead of Florida and Buffalo one you even WANT to see in the playoffs? I actually still do I think. If only for the morale of the team and fans. If the boys start picking up more W’s in their own barn, it could still be a pretty productive month. If not, well, ENJOY THE GAME!(?)

A note on whether or not the Ottawa Senators actually stink. (No they do not.)

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Last night’s loss to Tampa Bay was a gut punch. Ottawa loses a close game, and every team that Ottawa is chasing wins theirs. In one night the Sens’ playoff probability drops from about 25% to 15%. Moreover, the feeling that this team takes one step back for every step forward weighs down the whole #fearless experience. The feeling of futility is settling in. But as is usually the case, the real story of the game lies just below the box score.

Ottawa outshot Tampa 34-22 and dominated possession 5v5 60.3%-39.7%. It was a one goal game right up until the last few minutes, and at one point, with the score tied, Bishop absolutely robbed Bobby Ryan. If he doesn’t maybe the whole narrative changes. A team with excellent goaltending stole a couple of close ones away from the team who should, by all rights, have won.

In fact, if you look at the Senators’ last 10 games—of which they’ve lost seven—they’ve controlled possession in seven of those games. In four of those games—also all losses—they’ve been north of 60% when 5v5, which, in a league this good, you can consider absolute domination in possession terms. In that same time they’ve allowed fewer than 30 shots on net at even strength eight times, and 20 or fewer shots at even strength five times.

The Senators, at even strength, are a good team. Or at least they have been lately. When Patrick Wiercioch said post-game that the team has been “finding ways to lose,” he’s not kidding.

So why are they losing so much? We don’t have to go far to find areas of legitimate concern. Their PK is terrible, currently rated 23rd in the league, and is absolutely giving the game away in places. This couldn’t be worse when you also consider Ottawa leads the league in times shorthanded. Their goaltending could also stand to make one or two more timely saves, which is a kind way of saying that Craig Anderson has been brutal this season. But my key takeaway here is that if this team stays out of the box even a little bit more, some of these losses turn to wins.

RELATED NOTE: Chris Neil’s penalties per 60 minutes of play this season is 2.9, which is 2nd in the league among players with 20 or more games played behind the also-useless Zac Rinaldo. This is almost a career high for Neil. (He took 3.1 penalties a game per 60 back in 2007-2008.) His penalties drawn? 0.4! That’s a career low.

For an agitator who doesn’t really do much to drive possession or put up points, that’s stunningly ineffective. For a team that is so pressed for cash that in order to call up Mike Hoffman they also need to send down effective fourth liner Derek Grant, Neil’s $1.9MM salary (for two more seasons after this…sigh) is a boat anchor.

I think the book is out on Chris Neil; the refs aren’t biting anymore. More importantly, I don’t know how you scratch young players for not playing responsibly in their own zone, and then not only give Chris Neil a free pass, but also the assistant captaincy. It can’t do much for your credibility.

Anyway…sometimes it’s helpful to just curse the hockey gods and move on. Toronto was massively outshot last night and eked out another win in OT, clinging to the edge of a regression cliff by their fingernails and the grace of good goaltending. Ottawa, at least over their last 10 games, is the reverse story. Their fundamentals are starting to come into alignment, but bad luck and discipline are doing them in.

To be a 92 point team they need to go 30-17-2 over the rest of the season. They have a big game against Toronto on Saturday—the battle of teams with opposite luck and possession. (I’m still looking for somebody to do an analysis of Ottawa’s record during Hockey Night in Canada broadcasts. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest it’s really very terrible.) And knowing the hockey god’s cruel sense of humour, it could go absolutely anywhere. But if there are two things that you can bet on, they’re that Chris Neil will take a penalty, and on the ensuing penalty kill, Ottawa will probably get scored on.

James Day Preview: The Senators visit The Tampa City Inclement Weather

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Memory Lane JDP

Ahh, snuggle up for the 1992 Expansion Classic!

Well hello everyone,

Let’s start this thing off proper:

HEYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY BOTH Ottawa Goalies Were Injured in Practice But At Least I’ve Vomited All Over Myself!!!!!!
So, Lehner was hit awkwardly in his left his right both shoulders this morning and appeared to be in considerable pain. Good thing Craig Anderson…took a puck off the knee and was…doubled over in pain…so… If only Ben Bi$hop could have started if Murray hadn’t have made that trade that made complete sense at the time only to be picked apart in hindsight! THANKS OBAMA!
At the time of this writing both goalies appear to be dancing out their injuries and Robin Lehner will get the start against Ben Bishop. I’m hoping for two things here:
1. Lehner isn’t being a hero and is fit enough to play because you know once the lightening hear he hurt both of his shoulders in practice they’re going to be shooting high on him all night long.
2.  Being familiar with both goalies I really hope this thing doesn’t go to a shootout.

Bish is 1-2-1 in his last 4 games but here’s the ruuuub: He’s posting a 0.98(!?) GAA and .969 save percentage on that one win in his last 4. EEP. So obviously if Ottawa can score like 3 goals they’ve won? But if they manage that Lehner will need to allow fewer than 3 goals…He had a pretty tough game against Detroit but facing a goalie who he might  definitely has an ax to grind with could help motivate him. Considering Bishop was brought in because the organization didn’t feel he was ready to take the reins Lehner should be fired up and a fired up Lehner is always bloodthirsty fun to watch!

Well, thanks for reading and — oh right other stuff besides goaltending.

Are the Sens about to play a game where they are the team who can score and the OTHER guys have trouble lighting the lamp?
In a complete reversal from last year Ottawa is actually tops in their division in Goals For while Tampa is in the lower half…only problem is Ottawa leads the division in goals against as well *fog horn* and Tampa is quite strong in this area. THESE TEAMS ARE THE ORIGINAL ODD COUPLE tune into their whack new sitcom Divisional RASCALS tonight at 7:30 Eastern / 8:00pm in Newfoundland!
It will be up to the D to keep from slipping in butterscotch early (hence Lehner starting 😉 ) and for the Senators to take advantage of their fire power. Lucky for them they have some fellas heating up at the right time.
Clarke MacArthur and Mika Zibanejad are both riding point streaks and have crept into the team’s top five in goal scoring trailing only Bobby Ryan (who I loooOOooOOOOOove) and Jason Spezza (who looked FIRED UP last game).
For what it’s worth does anyone else feel like the team has a couple of guys that are DUE to contribute? I’m speaking of course about Cory Conacher (0 goals in past 370 games) and Milan Michalek (0 G’s, 0 A’s). Seriously Cory….you’re starting to take on the spicy glow of “Dave’s Memories of Ryan Shannon” marinade. C’mon bro-bro put one past the starting goaltender that Murray gave up for you!
The 4th line tonight is 9MM-Zibanejad-Conacher. If those three can’t make some noise against whatever garb Tampa puts out against them well…
Mike Hoffman starts off the game with Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan which is pretty delightful for him. He sure seems expected to play a different role than Derek Grant did.  Let’s hope he takes advantage in time for the Battle of Ontario Derby at the Tires.com Arena on Saturday.
Erik Condra will play on the first line with Jason Spezza and MacArthur because someone put LSD in my coffee.

A Word On Defense: 

I don’t really know at this point. Everyone be as good as Karlsson?

I think this will be an interesting game. It was great to see Ottawa pull out a big road win in front of capacity crowd (like a we should make jokes about attendance) against the Panthers. Getting a ton of power plays and kicking the crap out of Florida (WHO DESPITE BEING FLORIDA STILL TOOK A TWO GOAL LEAD EARLY) is not much more than a mere confidence builder to me. Tonight they are facing an actual NHL team in Tampa. If they can take this one they could potentially have a bit of steam heading into the friendly confines of a Saturday HNIC game against the leefs (that whole thing btw)

Finally, 
You’ve probably heard about the proposed flash mob for the upcoming Sens-Yotes Battle of North America game. It’s a very 2014 idea. A lot of people are poking fun at it but after watching the instructional video I have to say it looks like a ton of fun and you might even catch the WTYKY staff joining in the fray! Learn the moves here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-k98bRUOb4g

ENJOY THE GAME! 

 

WTYKY Scotchcast Episode 2: A Steve is Born!

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Scotchcast

 

WTYKY Scotchcast 2: Secret of the Booze. Your favoritish internet acquaintances return in th– actually in a more accurate way of describing it: One guy returns, another has other affairs to attend to and a new person joins the fray in this rollicking PG-13 adventure that would probably make little to no sense to someone who doesn’t follow Ottawa Senators hockey!

Join in the fun as Steven and James AT LONG LAST break their silence on issues such as Alfred Danielsson’s return to the Tires.com Arena, get emotional about how the team isn’t doing well, share some EXPLOSIVE thoughts on the Heritage Classic jersey and MORE! They even let down their jewel encrusted monocles to take questions from you: The people who accidentally landed on this website! Enjoy!