In this case Otis is Spezza. Possibly Bryan Murray.
Varada:
Milan Michalek has one year left on his deal after this year, a deal with a fairly scrumtellescent $4.333333MM cap hit but a real life grab-blowing-cash-in-a-glass-box paycheque of $6MM. (Note: while the Sens sort of lucked out on not having to pay Spezza about half of his $8MM this year because of the lockout, and next year his salary dips to $5MM, they sort of take it in the nads with this one.)
When thinking about whether or not Milo should be re-signed, there are the two obvious questions: 1) what kind of money does he want, and 2) is he a core or complimentary player? The latter question is more important than the former, first because it determines the validity of the former’s outcome, and second because this team is stacked with complimentary players already.
Out of a 259 potential games (as of this writing), Milo has played in 222. I found that a bit surprising, as Michalek holds a place in my mind with those Sens approaching “injury prone” status. It’s not volume of games missed, it turns out, but that he has a propensity for getting hurt at a bad time. (See: playoffs under Clouston; right now.) Over his first two seasons he missed a not-unsubstantial 16 games (including playoff time), and last year he got into a great 77 games. But this year he’s injuring himself in warm-ups, and worse, it’s always his knees. This seems like the worst of both worlds: he’s not missed enough time for Ottawa to allow that to influence contract negotiations, but enough to make everyone worry.
He did score 35 goals once, which is great, especially since he’s also a player who you can use on the penalty kill. Like Mike Fisher with better luck / possibly just more ice time. But what chances will that outlier season have of distorting negotiations?
His relative CORSI is not exactly beastly out there, especially since he starts over 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone. In the year when he scored 35 goals, which happened as a result of an ungodly high shooting percentage through about a third of the year (at one point he was on pace for 50 goals, and then he predictably regressed), and in which he played 77 games, his relative CORSI was 1.1. Compare this to his line mate, Spezza, whose RC was 6. He also draws about as many penalties as he takes.
I have to conclude that Milo is a versatile player with a lot of upside. His defensive game is not deficient, which is very valuable for a player making his kind of offensive contributions. This alone makes him well worth re-signing, but he isn’t exactly a game breaker, and barely a core player to build around. He’s still relatively young at 28, but exiting him prime for a power forward. And then there’s those knees.
You also have to consider the players coming up who might be able to play that role of the utility forward with scoring upside: Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Stone.
All of this implies to me that he shouldn’t make anywhere near that $6MM base salary (perhaps obviously; this was negotiated with San Jose, who were giving him one of those deals predicated on his 6th overall draft position and his youth, perhaps). It’s possible that his cap hit is even a bit high.
James, I know you’re more concerned about term than money, and I can’t say I disagree with you; I don’t much care if Papa Melnyk shells out an extra mill for Milo considering this team is going to spend about $20MM less than the cap every year anyway. I would be concerned, however, about giving him those sweet, sweet Turris years. I’d be concerned to see Murray going more than 3-4, which might be tough, because Milo at 28 will probably be looking for what could be his last NHL deal.
If he’s to be re-signed, I think anything in the area of 3-4 years has to be viewed as a maximum, and at no more than his current cap hit, but preferably less. Perhaps smarter, though, is to hope he parlays some rest and the return of Spezza into a strong season next year, at which point he can be traded. I see Milo making attractive trade bait to a desperate team with a flailing GM–think Gauthier trading Cammalleri for Bourque last year.
James:
This is a very tough question. There is a surprising amount to unpack with Michalek. The most interesting point you brought up being that he hasn’t missed as many games as one would think during his time here, but also that almost all of those owies have been knee related…minus the time Erik Karlsson laid him the fuck out and concussed him. More troubling is that those knee problems predate his time here. It’s weird because it seems for every plus for Michalek there is a minus. He’s young but he has pretty chronic injury problems for a young guy. He’s a proven scorer but can’t seem to put up points without a good playmaker. Possesses tremendous speed but that speed is dependent on those shanananananaKNEEEES KNEEEEES.
I’m glad you brought up Zibanejad because a big question I ask going forward, “Is Zibanejad being developed as the heir apparent to Michalek’s role?” On paper, Mika is a similar player. He’s big and strong with great speed, unafraid to do dirty work, plays a good defensive game. That and Mika comes with the added bonuses of possessing a blistering shot and the ability to take draws. Like most young European forwards I’m going to assume Ziba is good in the shootout as well. Hmmph, appears he was 2 for 3 in Binghamton this year. Pretty damn good. Of course, the thing with this Zibanejad comparison is that it’s too early too tell how he’ll develop. Meanwhile, Michalek is a proven top 6 guy.
Perhaps the biggest plus here is that Michalek has averaged 25 goals per year in his time in Ottawa. That kind of production lacks in a big way among Sens forwards especially when you consider Alfie’s time winding down. Of note: We have a 40 year old in our top 6.
So it does really seem to come down to whether one thinks Milo is a core or a complimentary guy. I would say he is in the highest echelon of complimentary player or Complimentary +++ to use a scientific term. The team doesn’t necessarily fall apart without him but if this year has made two things abundantly clear to me: Our rookies aren’t quite there yet AND, most importantly, you can’t have enough players who can comfortably play a top 6 role.
You’re right Varadddzz, it’s more about term than dollars to me but that’s only right now when the team has like 10 rookies in the line up and is only really spending big dough on a couple players. When some of these guys start making nice-nice and their ELCs get used up we will no longer be the cap floor team we’ve come to know and love. I’d love to see Murray shell out more for fewer years. Maybe 6MM (see what I did there?) for 3-4 years and re-evaluate from there. The down side is that will never happen. Milo and his agent are going to go for long ass term. If it goes 5 years, I still say go for it…but we’re talking Bryan “One More Year” Murray negotiating with Allan “I just got comparable player Travis Zajac signed for 8 years” Walsh. Resign him though; Ottawa needs those 25 goals.
Varada and James have a brief friendly chat about the prospect of Ottawa getting their disgusting little mitts on contract holdout Ryan O’Reilly. Come away with us!
Varada says: I know I wrote just the other day that I don’t think Ottawa should trade for anyone, but then I didn’t think a guy like O’Reilly was available. When I think about “replacing Spezza,” I guess I was thinking of going after a similar guy–veteran, in his prime, high-priced–and that’s not who I think Ottawa should be going after. O’Reilly, on the other hand, fits the rebuild pretty damn well. He’s a centerman, 22, shoots left, and has already pretty much proven himself in the NHL. Much like last year’s Kyle Turris trade, this seems like a great fit.
TSN reported that Colorado would look for a roster player and a top prospect in return. In terms of top prospects, Ottawa has plenty to spare, especially if they’re bringing in a center. While I wouldn’t really want to part with Zibanejad or Stone, I wonder if the Avs could be swayed by Noesen, Puempel, or even Ceci. It’s the “roster player” part where I get stuck. Who on Ottawa’s roster could you see the team parting with? Da Costa? It’s not like they’re going to trade for Phillips or Gonchar.
James says:
Interesting as O’Reilly crossed my mind in the last thread but my opinion differs on acquiring him in the spirit of the rebuild. As you pointed out, this would be similar to the Kyle Turris trade but for me Ottawa already made this trade when they acquired Turris. Though I do quite like O’Reilly’s age, I think that the acquisition of this player has to be the long term kind (hence the contract holdout). I’m not sure if Spezza needs to be replaced like this quite just yet. Yes, he is 29 years old but I simply dont think the rebuild will take so long that he will no longer be relevant as player by the time Ottawa finds itself in the “contender” conversation. I recognize that I am an almost frustrating defender of Spezza but it’s simply because I firmly believe that Spezza’s skill set is rare like Mr. Clean with hair. O’Reilly is a very good player and his career best 55 points in 81 games last season is good. Kyle Turris good. Spezza has 621 points in 611 NHL games as well as 51 points in 53 playoff games. Is he a perfect player? No but that kind of production is something I don’t see the need to give away injuries problems and all. If, say, by the time Ottawa starts becoming a contender if Spezza is no longer a first line caliber centreman, that’s a pretty dynamite 2nd line pivot to have much like how Alfredsson is still a pretty fantastic 2nd line player even at age 40. The Sens have been an organization that values career players and I think that Spezza should be one as he has certainly delivered on his pedigree for 9 seasons now. Keep Spezza and I think he’ll give the team 1000 points eventually. Turris will likely be that important 55-60 per year guy.
Further the fact that Colorado wants a top prospect for O’Reilly is proof to me that the Av’s are willing to gamble that O’Reilly can be replaced by a top prospect. Maybe I’m a conservative with this but i think if Spezza is replaced it’s by a marquee FA of comparable quality that you have to pay through the nose for (IE Some other team’s Jason Spezza). That or…this is all a bunch of media hype and it just gets worked out between the two sides a la PK Subban was our generation’s Ryan O’Reilly.
I’m like a broken record with this but take into consideration all the bitching that went down / kiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiind of still goes down about giving up David Rundblad and a second for Kyle Turris. I dont think a week goes by without someone talking about him in a Sens blog (that isnt ours) comment section or on twitter or something. Turris has stepped right into the top 6 and played well and people still talk about Rundblad like he’s the one who got away. There’s little doubt that Rundblad will be a good player and we got one in return which is great. As Sens fans we know how much it sucks when it doesn’t work out. Where iz you going with this one James? We’ll put simply, I dont see the need to give up a roster player AND a prospect to be able to give Ryan O’Reilly his next contract as I think with the wealth of prospects that the organization currently holds we will soon discover we have our own O”Reilly that we had to surrender nothing beyond what we’ve already surrendered for the pick in the first place (Mike Fisher, Chris Kelly). I’m a quantity man when it comes to drafting and I think that’s something Ottawa should hang onto. It’s the Jason Spezzas of the world that are so hard to find so dont give them up when you dont have to.
Assessing the mood on Twitter and Facebook, Karlsson’s gruesome, traumatic injury last night has struck a chord. It’s not just what it means for the Senators season, though we all know that with Karlsson, Spezza, and Cowen out for the season, and a combination of Michalek, Regin, Latendresse, and Gonchar already missing time, it’s enough to start reading pages like this one with greater interest. It’s more than a lost season. There’s a sort of sick feeling in the pit of the stomach because of this one, something worse than no playoffs.
I’ve been trying to put my finger on it. I didn’t feel this way when Spezza had back surgery. Alfie, the team’s most cherished and respected player, has missed time due to surgery before, and I’m not sure if I felt this way when it happened.
There’s something about seeing Karlsson’s face in AP photographer Gene J. Puskar’s various close-up photos; the way his face contorts in agony when he tries to put weight on his foot again; even in the way he throws his stick in frustration as he’s being helped off the ice. This was a sick injury (I’m reminded of a scene at the end of the Korean movie Old Boy, a scene designed to convey ultimate revenge, vulnerability, and horror.) It was like watching a car wreck: pointless, tragic, devastating. You can’t help but separate yourself from the fact that this is a game and feel real empathy for the guy.
Once the horror wears off a little bit, the sick stomach doesn’t end. There’s also the feeling that we’re losing a season of a dominant, transcendent athlete in his absolute prime, a player who is an absolute joy to watch. And there’s the fear that this injury, which may require up to a year of rehab and recovery, will somehow affect this player for the rest of his career. Karlsson was enjoying not just a good season; in many ways he even improved on his Norris-winning performance last year. He’s leading the entire league in shots, and has almost double the number of shots as the next defenceman, Jack Johnson, who is 46th. He may still win the Finnish league’s scoring title for defenceman, despite the fact that he left Jokerit a month ago, giving his competition plenty of time to catch up. He’s been playing with an undeniable confidence, propelling a surprising team to playoff contention, and almost single-handedly breaking the game wide open on almost a nightly basis.
This was a tough season already, but there’s something about this injury that is much, much worse than perhaps missing out on the playoffs (in a shortened season, and with a deep draft to console ourselves). There’s a fear that we won’t get the old Karlsson back. The sky was the limit this time yesterday. Now, I feel robbed of something special. That it happened on a nothing play, as just the arbitrary, chaotic nature of a fast, physical game played on razor sharp blades, makes it all seem so pointless and unfair.
In any case, we here at WTYKY, who derive our very name from a love for our Special Little Guy, are thinking about him today and wishing him a speedy recovery. Not just so he can get back here and help this team win a Cup, but because we feel for him and wish him well.
You’ve been waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting and waiting but the day has come: Ottawa FINALLY takes on the Buffalo Sabres. It’s not all bad! Despite being old hat, a game against the Sabres can serve as a reliable slump buster. The proof is in the pudding that Buffalo is ripe for the picking with 2009 Calder Trophy winner and current Guinness World Record Holder for Longest Human Neck, Tyler Myers getting scratched the other night to send a message to the league’s most porous defence. Will Myers enter this game fired up or will his downward slide continue? All I know is that I want to see Erik Karlsson continue to Big Time him. You cannot WRITE that kind of comedy.
Thomas Vanek continues his contribution to making Buffalo the weirdest team in the North East by putting up 23 points in his last 12 games good for a 12th place standing in conference. What is he, Mario Lemieux on the 1986 Penguins? …or better yet 1986 Buffalo Sabres?
Ottawa has a bit of soul searching (thing?) to do after turning what should have been a tap in into one of the most boring games in recent memory (recent memory being that 1-0 loss to Carolina). Ottawa’s sputtering offense has prompted to MacLean to shuffle his lines which I will discuss now in a segment called…
Shades of Clouston
Okay, so I’ll be the first to say that when you’re getting shut out by Al Montoya at home your offense does indeed need a bit of a spark but is it just me or are these line combos getting a bit on the psychedelic side?
MacLean’s Forward Lines Based on this Morning’s Practice:
Alfredsson-Zibanejad-Alfredsson
…I’m no coach (I’m just a caveman) but sometimes I wonder what the better call is, mixing things up by putting a 19 year old with 16 NHL games under his belt that you WERE all about sheltering one week ago on the first or second line or just keeping the lines together for a couple of games to shake their respective sillies out and start scoring again. It’s not like they haven’t been scoring all year it’s just been on and off. I don’t know if another line shuffle will necessarily help with consistency but in fairness, MacLean has little choice in mixing things up as in addition to losing his premier playmaker (well aside from Karlsson) Peter Regin has fulfilled reaching the double digits in games played and has moved to his rightful place on the IR. On a related note I want to congratulate Guillaume Latendresse and wish him the best of luck in his recent decision to opt out of his NHL contract to fight the Islamist insurgency in Northern Mali. We hardly knew ye in the SIX GAMES you played here.
Honestly if you’re going to try out some wild stuff might as well be against Buffalo.
Well Well Get Well Soon We Want You to Get Well.
Krang Anderson gets the start against Ryan Miller. Prediction: Craig Anderson will somehow manage to have better hair than Ryan Miller.
DVD EXTRA:
James and Varada discuss their big stupid thoughts on whether or not Ottawa should make a trade to supplement for Spezza…with SEXY results (obvi).
Varada says:
Obviously being shut out by defensive juggernaut Al Montoya makes a person think long and hard about what the rest of this season is going to look like. Turris has played well, considering what we’re throwing at him. And I like seeing the kids get experience. But we’re in for a bumpy ride.
As for trading to replace Spezza, I’m gonna go back to my early season comments about how if there was ever a season when I was comfortable with this team collapsing, it’s this season. Already a quarter of a season in, you say? That’s just bonkers. I never want to live through the season-before-last, out-almost-immediately rebuild season again (how do you do it, Islanders fans?), so if there’s an opportunity to get a top five pick while only having to live through 48 games of failure, I say go for it. I can take having another rebuilding year knowing that we don’t suck as much as all that, we just ran into some hard luck injuries with Spezza and Cowen. Embracing the suck also allows this team to trade Gonchar at the deadline for a pick, which ain’t gonna happen if we’re on the bubble.
Obviously hoping for a tank job when you’re 6th in the conference is a bit weird, but you see the before-and-after-Spezza’s-injury team scoring, and who are we going to get to replace 4th-in-scoring-last-year Spezza with? We can probably trade for Weiss out of Florida or something, but then there goes your first rounder. So it just doesn’t seem worth it to me.
Ride it out, and if the wheels come off the wagon, so be it.
James Says:
I agree completely. If the asking price to trade for someone for 30 odd games is any of our prospects I don’t want to pay it. Look at our team. We love them and everything but they’ve been icing up to 3 AHL defenders and have already lost 2 top six forwards thus far. It’s pretty impressive that they are even competitive most nights. As a fan I’m okay with wherever this team lands in the standings in this weird year. The alarming thing is that, according to my source (Twitter), Ottawa had a scout at Columbus’ game last night. I will go on record in saying: Pleeeeeeease don’t make us cheer for Vinny Prospal (again). In a contract year Prospal’s definitely a prime candidate for a trade. Another likely lad in that conversation is perennial Murray boner-giver Derrick Brassard. With a combined 13 points (6 for Prospal, 7 for Brassard), those aren’t the kind of performances that are unattainable even with Ottawa’s depleted line up. I mean Zibanejad and Silfverbeg already have…some points and … let’s move on…If Murray makes any move I’d like it to be signing one of the many fine quality FA’s who are just sitting there. Like say, Jason Arnott or or… JESSIE WINCHESTER! I hear Nikita Filatov is 4th in scoring on his Italian Roller Hockey League team the Milano Pizzas.
I once read an interview where Morrissey described Prince William and Kate Middleton as, “so dull as people that it is actually impossible to discuss them.” Oh Moz, I bow to the Queen of All Bitches. Anyway, if I am Morrissey the Carolina Hurricanes are my Will and Kate. This team has a frigging Stanley Cup banner and boasts some bona fide stars on their roster and yet I still find it a chore to even look at how they’ve performed in their last 5 games.
Oh, super the Hurricanes are a perfectly .500 team and their last game against Ottawa had a 1-0 result whew boy…it’s tired in here *yawn* ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ…
The biggest factor in this game for me in terms of entertainment value is that it’s going to be played at Scotiabank Place. I skipped out on last Friday’s game because I HAVE A LIFE OUTSIDE OF THIS YOU KNOW!!! and I absolutely loathe games played at the PNC centre in Raleigh. That place has the most noticeably shitty ice in the league. This is especially frustrating when your favourite team has Jason Spezza on it and when he plays there none of his moves work, he gets frustrated and tends to play poorly. What’s that? Jason Spezza doesn’t play for this team right now? Oh, well let’s get into it then…
What’s Reasonable to Expect From Kyle Turris and How Much is it Going to Cost Me In Taxes?
Let me start by saying “Thank Jah the team has a guy this skilled right now”. While he’s not flying out there like he was at the very beginning of the season he doesn’t look at all lost and is still contributing with 2 points in his last two games. That said, other than a shootout marker in a losing effort against Pittsburgh, Turris hasn’t scored a regulation goal since the loss to the Scampi Tail Lightning on January 25th. Soooo that was almost two weeks ago. I am a bit divided as to how to feel about Turris of late. He is holding it down in an unexpected role with competence which is awesome but also…two weeks is starting to be a long frigging time to go without a goal after potting 4 in 4 games to start the season. What say you gentle reader? Is Turris chugging along just fine or is he struggling to finish on the top line? If he continues to line up with players who possess shots like Alfie and Zibanejad do I could see him switching his role to playmaker and carry on stacking up the assists.
I Just Flew In From Raleigh and Boy Are My Erik Karlssons Playing Over 30 Minutes A Game.
This is already becoming a bit of a tired storyline. In my opinion, Karlsson’s 2+ minute shifts and 30+ minutes a game will only be a factor when HE ACTUALLY SHOWS ANY SIGNS OF FATIGUE. Tuesday was Karlsson’s 3rd game in 5 days and he logged 31 minutes and he was great offensively notching his 4th goal and even saw time on a penalty kill that stymied the Sabres a perfect 4 times. He has been dominant nearly every time he has the puck on his stick even showing tremendous effort to regain possession when something goes wrong.
Apparently, tonight will see the return of Sergei Gonchar and the Ottawa debut of Mike Lundin. These two should serve to take a little pressure off of EK. I hope Gonchar is back in game shape as the person he’s ostensibly replacing in Patrick Wiercioch has not looked out of place in his stead the past few games. Mike Lundin I expect little more than an Ikea Billy Bookcase-like performance. Sounds like he is simply a lower pairing D man and this will be his first game with a new club so…get out there and be a $99.00 birch veneer bookshelf (as in be dependable as in don’t fuck up).
Craig Anderson’s 2nd and 3rd Period Shutout Streak Only Went 9 Games? Shame!
Tonight might end up being another goaltending duel like last game against the Canes that I thankfully didn’t watch but could imagine…The Sens have lit up a couple backups so far this season but Dan Ellis is no Jhonas “Big Rig Wobbler” Enroth. With a .942 PCT in his last 3 games Carolina could have quite the one-two punch in net with Cam Ward. Again, I say “could” because I am unsure because I fell asleep from boredom trying to research that claim. If the last game against Carolina demonstrated one thing it’s that even with the exception season Andy is having thus far he can’t win every game without scoring support. There are going to be a lot of nights where its going to take 4 goals to eek out a victory. Also shout out to André Benoit’s ballin’ shot block to save the game. Sloppy an affair as it was Tuesday’s win against Buffalo was the kind of full team effort the Sens will need on a consistent basis to stay high in the conference standing and make the post season.
If you’re reading this blog, you’ve probably spent some time playing / being frustrated with EA’s ‘Be a GM’ mode in its NHL video games. There’s maybe nothing as satisfying as managing an Islanders-like team to a conference final on the back of your decision to sign Jaromir Jagr to a one-year, $6MM contract. Similarly, there’s maybe nothing as frustrating as trying to get around the expectations set by in-game ownership algorithms. Pick Calgary, for example. When you’re looking at which team you want to try to rebuild, Calgary’s owners think they’re a contender. You trade off your assets and they fire your ass. So, it’s exactly like real life then. How else do you explain their decision to sign Jiri Hudler and Dennis Wideman to multi-year, big money contracts? Somewhere in the back room, someone is playing NHL 2013 and it worked out for them.
If you were going to steward a rebuild, why not pick a contender? Well, there’s not much challenge in that. Give me the Vancouver Canucks or Boston Bruins and watch me do nothing but smoke cigars in the owner’s box. How about a team already rebuilding? Columbus traded what assets they had, and their rebuild is now set in motion. You’re committed to those assets brought back in the Nash trade, even if there’s no way in hell I would have traded for Jack Johnson. No thanks. Washington is promising, though it feels like only yesterday they finished their rebuild. I suppose I could fantasize about managing my home team Senators, but that’s pretty much what this blog is all about anyway.
Now Calgary…that’s a team just primed for an explosive rebuild. Take a look at these contracts. You could really put your stamp on that team, a team so ready to be messily and horribly disassembled in the public eye.
Currently Calgary spend more on player salaries than all but nine other teams in the league, and they sit dead last. Let’s have a look.
Jarome Iginla is going to hear his name in trade rumors all the way up to the deadline unless they lock him up to an extension. (Which they shouldn’t.) He alone can get you a package of picks and prospects that you can build on, something enviable to fanbases like ours who saw Ottawa launch their rebuild on the back of a Mike Fisher trade.
Anton Babchuk is also on an expiring contract. He’s your prototypical powerplay specialist and depth defenseman, exactly the kind of player that fetches you a pick at the deadline.
Kiprusoff and Bouwmeester both have a year left on their contracts after this season, but if someone is actually willing to take on a million years of Luongo’s remaining contract, with most of those years paying him close to $7MM per, then you can find a taker for Kipper. Bouwmeester has never played on a good team, and with the right expectations he could flourish. Both of these guys get you at least a pick or prospect, Kipper probably more.
Cammalleri, too, only has a year left. Watch those who miss out on the free agent bonanza next season start looking for top-tier wingers in the off-season. Especially with Calgary able to keep a part of the salary in a trade, they could maximize their return here.
Stepniak, Tanguay, and Stajan are probably only moderately tradeable, if at all. Outside of Stepniak, who sort of sucks, there’s a lot of years and money left on those deals.
Calgary isn’t a large market team, but they sure act like it. If they’re willing to swallow some of the salary on their big contracts, they could essentially buy their competition’s picks and prospects. We have yet to see anyone really take advantage of these provisions in the new CBA. Calgary should be the first. It would be a blast to see. I tried it in NHL 2011 (the last version of the game I bought) and I was fired after the first season because we finished third last.
If you could rebuild any team, who would you want to rebuild most?
LETS GET THIS KARLSSON STAAARRRTEEEEEED (Get this KarlssoOOoooOOn StaaaAAAARrrrRRteeEEEeeeeeed)
Come Meet Me Up In This Tree So I Can Talk To You About Peter Regin for a Little
I am going to preface this for those of you who don’t read this blog regularly by saying I don’t believe in Peter Regin as a top 6 player anymore. Much like how Jonathan Cheechoo seems like a really, really nice guy; YES, Peter Regin DID have that one great playoff round but that doesn’t necessarily mean I give either guy’s shite point totals as Sens a pass.
I know Ottawa is in a super tough spot down the middle right now but I think the organization needs to REST IT’S CASE in terms of believing this guy will take it to the next level. Another example of a guy a lot of people thought just couldn’t take it to the next level is Nick Foligno. Last season, Nicky’s 47 point performance was just 5 points shy of Regin’s 53 CAREER points. Oh and that 4 points in a playoff round 3 years ago that is the go-to highlight of Regin’s career? Yeah, Foligno had 4 against the Rangers last year. Life goes on without Foligno like Vermette before him. Now Nicky (who was also a decent centre) is in Columbus while Regin was Centring a mix of the first and second lines for Ottawa on Sunday. I acknowledge that Regin is a very good possession player and has great wheels and I also acknowledge that Ottawa needs all the centres they can get with the current Spezzacrisis but watching Regin get knocked around in Montreal really tested my patience as a fan. Last year in his 10 games pre-injury *rubs face and takes deep breath* we witnessed an inspired performance from Regin but this year he has looked listless. Bad timing bro the team is/was really depending on you. Maybe it’s that he is all too aware that his career is basically on the line and with the short season he has even less time than usual to right the ship. Seeing as I am not Peter Regin’s agent (yet) I am completely fine with the Sens mixing it up by bringing in talented but undersized centre Stephane DaCosta. I don’t expect DaCosta to be too much of an upgrade from Regin per se but he might have a little more fire to his game and could be an effective powerplay engine for the second unit. If he doesn’t get knocked on his ass. Anything to get Regin or you know, THE TEAM (I must keep in mind that the entire team is not scoring right now not just poor #13) going. If the trend of numbers like 2 goals for and 3 against deciding games continues this will not be a team that makes the post season.
Really Getting Behind This Al Silfversson Kid!
In case you missed it, some Vintage* Bob Cole (who doesn’t sound like he’s 80 years old at all) on that Al Silfversson goal on Sunday. Also of note: THE GOAL. Alberto “Al” Silfversson made Carey Price’s glove look like it was in slow motion delivering on a Dave’s Memories of David Rundblad Stretch Pass Marinade (available at fine stores) from Patrick Wiercioch. Silfverberg has been a little quiet but solid with the Senators of late but hopefully his breakaway reminded him that he has a terrifying release that can even take elite NHL goaltenders by surprise. Lets look at it:
Doesn’t. Even. Wind. Up.
Hopefully many more to come from this Al Silfversson. Tonight he’ll be playing on a line with Milan Michalek and Zack Smith…so yeah, gunna be a weird season. Let’s move on 🙂
Ghost of Harry Caray says, “Ottawa Needs to get the Bats Goin”
After losing one game 1-0 and losing another 2-2 (WINK) Ottawa faces a much different challenge against Buffalo. This is a team that can score. Thomas Vanek (boasting a stupefying 19 points in 8 games) is Craig Anderson’s Stefan Urquelle. One a goal stopper the other a scoring machine. They’re the original odd couple! Both Buffalo and Ottawa are looking to take advantage of those respective performances (aaaaadoi). Ottawa’s offense has its work cut out for it facing Ryan Miller but his current 3.11 GAA helps explain why despite the ridiculous out put from Vanek (and Pomminville for that matter) Buffalo currently resides in the 12th slot in the East. *UPDATE: Jhonas Enroth gets the nod in net for Buffalo*
As for Ottawa I ask where is that team that was scoring in bunches? Huh? What’s that? Oh Jason Spezza was on that team…hmmm. Well, question asked, question answered. Seriously though, score some fucking goals. Christian Ehrhoff, who on an hilarious, hilarious note is signed though to the fantastic Star Date 2021, is out tonight, the Senators have a great opportunity here to get back in the win column at home. People are paying good Groupon money to watch you boys play so give them something to cheer about!
Key to Victory: Buffalo stinks.
Bonus Prediction: I will extend my streak of not liking how the game is reffed to an impressive 10 straight!
Fake Offer: If André Benoit gets a goal tonight I will give you FORTY DOLLARS! That would be sweet. The scoring not me giving you $40.
Like most teams in a league that has taken huge strides to ensure parity, Ottawa finds themselves in that creamy, mediocre middle band. Not elite, not terrible; capable of making the playoffs one year, but always feeling like they’re one or two key injuries or Craig Anderson becoming human away from sinking below the magical 8th seed cut-off. Expectations are a tricky thing; right now, while most of us armchair pundits would be disappointed but not crushed to find the team outside the playoff picture, and while rookies are just that, there’s a wide, forgiving berth.
It’s easy to lose sight of how optimal Ottawa’s situation is right now. A few key veterans—Spezza, Michalek, Anderson, and I suppose Karlsson is about a season away from not being considered a newbie anymore—are in their prime. A few older guys—Alfredsson, Phillips, Gonchar—provide the mustard and stories about how Springfield and Shelbyville once fought over a lemon tree. And an ocean of young talent with fresh faces and nebulous ceilings enjoy playing PSP on the plane. While Ottawa’s window to contend is certainly not open, its window to be a playoff competitor is. It’s an exciting team to watch.
The next season or two is going to be when the rebuild is really put to the test. Alfredsson and Gonchar are on their way out. Michalek will have one year left on his deal (and one that pays him $6MM) after this season, and Spezza two. Both of them will find themselves entering declining territory as they hit their 30s, and hard questions will have to be asked about their role on the team and what kind of contracts they should receive. Phillips is on a similar timeline, with it looking likely that he might be squeezed out by emerging talent on the back end. If the Zibanejads, Silfverbergs, Stones, and Lehners don’t pan out, or if this team doesn’t commit to a big purchase on the free agent market, the team could find itself settling for the next half-dozen years into that creamy middle: not quite elite, not quite terrible.
That’s why it sometimes pays to go with quantity during a rebuild, and why the organization’s decision to go with less pain in the short term might keep the team from becoming a true contender in the long term. Only time will tell of course.
The big question, for me, is whether the team decides to continue to build internally or to make that big trade. When we saw Ottawa deep in talks with Columbus last year, the rumor was they were willing to part with blue chip forward and goalie prospects, a first round pick, and a roster player for an aging and expensive Rick Nash. That should be worrisome, but unsurprising to fans. I’ve written on this blog before that I don’t think this management has the appetite for a true rebuild, and half-measures and Hail Marys might take the place of slow, methodical building.
There’s still lots of time to see where Ottawa’s prospects end up. Silfverberg and Stone both kind of came out of nowhere, projected to either be lower pairing players or not play in the NHL at all, and these long-bomb successes would make one or more of the team’s higher end prospects not working out easier to take. But without the incredibly deep pools that teams like St. Louis, Los Angeles, and Washington enjoyed when they launched their rebuilds, Ottawa is going to have to make contact more often than not, and really hit it out of the park in free agency, if it’s going to add to those banners above.
You know when you’re sitting down to sip at a snifter of Mrs. Butterworth’s gelatinous mash LIKE A GENTLEMAN and you’re just about to write a James Day Preview (your name is James in this story) about how the Ottawa Senators played a statement game against Montreal and what happens? Jason Spezza dies and that just dominates the news cycle for the next couple of days. Now you have to come up with something new. Think you/me THINK…I know…
TONIGHT IS A STATEMENT GAME!!!
It really is though. As much as that last game was one too: A divisional rival on a winning streak with a hot powerplay rolls into town and are stymied by a masterful performance from Craig Anderson and plenty of goals from throughout the depth chart. Yes, they will have Gonchar back in the line up tonight and that’s a plus but unlike last game there’s a new pressure to get it done without the possibility of the teams #1 centre coming back any time soon. Though Carolina is not as much of a threat as the streaking Canadiens were per se, there’s something about games against the Hurricanes. They are never a walk in the park. Jeff Skinner has 5 goals by the way. Cover his shit.
I know the Senators can’t be expected to win every game (esp the 4th game of the week on the road on probably the league’s most noticeably shitty ice) but each W they put up now is one less they have to under the pressure of the end of season playoff race. I’m really excited to see the FaceSmasherz line of Greening-Smith-Neil do their thing. Would love to see Smith get one tonight. Something tells me their’s a quiet confidence in that dressing room that they can keep this ship afloat in the absence of Spezza. A victory would do wonders to further build that confidence.
Can We Talk About How Amazing Erik Karlsson Is?
Although he had one assist on the night how much of a frigging BO$$ was Erik Karlsson all game long against Montreal? He deserved more. Is there anyone that he doesn’t make look a step slow? Numerous amazing plays each period. I don’t know if he has a third lung no one knows about or what. The guy played 29 and a half minutes and didn’t even look bagged at any point. Twitter was all atwitter (last time I use that) about how it was dumb of MacLean to play him for 9 minutes in the third period even though the game was well in hand. That’s a pretty good point but I am interested to see if that even matters with this kid. He’s on some Weapon X shit. With Spezza out, Karlsson will be doing double duty as first pairing defenseman and first line centre. I feel fine about that.
Heyyyyyyyyyyy Guillaume Latendresse Has Already Missed Time Twice and the Season Isn’t Even Ten Games Old
Since he was acquired I’ve spend a fair share of time poking fun at Tender Willy. Injury this, Fatendresse that. It was all in good fun. For all my “get ready for the Dollar Store Version of Cheechoo” posturing I was hoping deep down to be pleasantly surprised by a solid but not flashy out put from Latendresse. His performance so far hasn’t been the worst or anything, he’s been slow out of the gate but that was to be expected. What’s worrying me is that he’s already missed two games. One for injury (eeee) and tonight the flu. Now, obviously Gui-Gui cant help getting the flu but as Papa Alfie showed against Washington even the best players don’t quite look their best when they return “healthy enough to play.” I foresee Latendresse getting his game together suffering a bit of a set back so mentally preparing for more of the same from him. Zibanejad NOT Za-bin-ejad…You Fuckin’ Idiots.
Kid’s looked dynamite out there. Bringing a game of strength, speed and getting kicked out of the faceoff circleocity. He said something interesting before his first game regarding what advice the coaching staff had given him about his game. He said they wanted to see him play less tentative to go out and make things happen. Not defer to others to dictate the play. I have to say you can really notice he’s doing that and the results speak for themselves. I guess playing with Eric Condra gives you a shoot-first mentality. For real though, Condra has been quietly awesome out there. Very excited to see Condra and Zibby playing together again they’ve gelled nicely. Speaking of dictating play, I cant imagine how hard it is to be a rookie and suddenly start the season on a line with Spezza and Michalek and not shit yourself and just try to get the puck to one of the guys how had over 30 goals before Malkin strips you of the puck. That said, if Silfverberg just played with a bit more of that intensity he showed in Binghamton, I think he’ll start rolling. He’s been bumped down to the 4th line to start the game but that’s not the worst thing in the world. Takes the pressure off him a bit and hey, Zibby was playing bottom six the last two games and he made things happen.
Every Game I’m Anderson’ Every Game I’m Anderson’
Anderson gets the start A DOI OI OI OI OI OI OI OI. Thought they’d give this one to Bishop but I’m just going to leave that there because I don’t want to jinx it. Someone stupid starts for Carolina. How hard is this team to like. They even have Alex Semin now.
ENJOY THE GAME!
Welcome To Your Karlsson Years 