How the 2012 lockout affects the way I interact with hockey

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It’s been a long, long time since I’ve written anything on this blog. In fact, the last post I wrote, on September 20th, was a petition vowing that if any games were cancelled that I wouldn’t watch any hockey for the rest of the season. Since that time I’ve had just about no desire to contemplate our situation as hockey fans, and no interest in covering the ongoing non-event that is this lockout.

The reaction to that petition was predictable and fair. Most seemed to appreciate the sentiment–that only by withholding our dollars can we actually communicate with owners and/or players–but admitted that they would eat hockey up if and when it returned. I’m missing hockey something fierce; I don’t begrudge anyone the opportunity to watch the Sens play again. But I thought it only right to follow up on whether or not my position has changed over the last month plus…

Nope. The owners have cynically positioned the fans, leveraging our passion for the sport in a fight to undermine player rights. They’ve irreparably set the sport back at least a year or two after what had been years of record growth and some of the best hockey in years. My sense is still one of deep resentment. If any other company or brand, selling me any other product, so fragrantly took me for granted in this way I would never go back to them.

Now, I’m not saying that I’m never going to watch hockey again. And I have to acknowledge that Melnyk doesn’t seem to be one of the hardliners among the ownership cadre driving this thing. But I simply can’t go back to the way things were and pretend that this level of greed is a normal and cyclical thing in the overall scheme of CBA negotiations.

So what were my plans for 2012-2013? Well, after a surprisingly competitive season last year, I planned to consume Ottawa Senators hockey to about the same degree as any fan who bothers to write about hockey on his own blog. Which is to say that I was going to watch every game at least on TV, attend between a half-dozen and dozen home games, go to as many playoff games as I can, buy some merch, and drink a shit-ton of $11 beers at Scotiabank Place. I don’t spend like a madman when it comes to hockey. But I’m part of the gristle that makes hockey profitable in this city. If I was a die-hard with season tickets and a version of every jersey, then peeling back a little doesn’t make that much difference; I’d still be spending like mad. Instead, I’m the kind of consumer who had built hockey into my routine. What any lockout demonstrates to the consumer like me is that I don’t need hockey in my life that badly.

When there are this many companies willing to bend over backward for my entertainment buck I can’t go back to hockey spending. I won’t be going to any home games if and when hockey is back, not even playoff games. I won’t buy any merch, like jerseys or t-shirts. (Not even that Ottawa Senators Dream Capture Kit.) I won’t spend any money on arena food or beer.

So, why would I punish our small market team? Well, I’m on record (here and here) thinking that Melnyk has a habit of stretching the truth when it comes to describing the challenges of breaking even. And I can’t ignore that Daniel Alfredsson is re-considering his plans to play another year, and that we’re losing a year of Erik Karlsson and Jason Spezza in their prime. Hockey, and Ottawa Senators hockey specifically, is damaged because of this lockout. If we never break out of this habit of flocking back to hockey because we’ve missed it so badly, then we’ll only have ourselves to blame when all of this happens again in 6-7 years.

Sign this petition to end the lockout

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SIGN HERE

I submit to you a thesis: that the consumer of NHL hockey does not sit at the powerless nexus between billionaire owners and millionaire players in their fight to divide a $3.3 billion pie but, in fact, has agency.

That agency is his or her almighty dollar, the many billions of which these owners and players are fighting over, after all. And though we might feel powerless in this situation, the one decision that no person or corporation can take from us, no matter how influential they are, is the decision to leave our wallets in our back pockets.

Because let’s face it: we’re being taken for granted here. And it’s far more egregious than how Canadian hockey fans feel taken for granted when their dollars are used to subsidize expansion into non-traditional markets. There is a tacit assumption on the part of ownership that the fans will come back. There will be no fiscal penalty, relatively speaking, for taking away something that we love. We’ve come back before.

It’s tempting to take sides, particularly against the owners. Their bull-headed position is matched only by their willingness to fire staff or cut back their hours and pay, and the inevitability of even higher ticket prices should they succeed in maximizing their profit. Their arrogance seems all the more despicable for the very public way in which it’s dissected by a hockey starved sports media. But taking sides is nothing but semantics for any hockey consumer who doesn’t happen to have a pulpit from which to speak about labor issues. You can buy a ticket because you like the players, the owners, the ice girls, or the popcorn. But you only have one type of almighty dollar to spend and no matter why you spend it, that dollar ends up in the same place.

Which is why I propose not spending it. Somewhere in league offices there is probably an algorithm that demonstrates the degree to which the owners can risk good consumer relations against what they stand to gain in a labor dispute. And the only way to speak to them in their language is to demonstrate that their decision to deny hockey fans hockey has repercussions.

If the league comes back to play a truncated season, it will be tempting to watch. But how can I, after experiencing yet another lockout, send that signal to Bettman and the owners? Why would I rush out to buy another season ticket package or jersey? Why would I celebrate a team’s deep prospect pool, an unexpected playoff appearance, a gritty performance, or the glory of a championship? Why would I become reinvested when the owners are so quick to take it away?

Boycotting and staying away for a prolonged period of time—and, just as importantly, letting management know through a written letter campaign—is the only way to send a  message to this league that they can’t take hockey fans for granted.

That’s why I humbly propose the following pledge:

If a single game is lost from the 2012-2013 NHL season, I pledge not to watch any NHL hockey for the duration of said season if and when hockey returns. I will buy no tickets or merchandise for my home team or any other team. I will not watch NHL hockey or related shows on television. I will not listen to NHL hockey or related shows on the radio. I do this to send a message to NHL ownership that we, as consumers, demand respect. If you deny us this game that we so love, we will deny you our dollars.

SIGN HERE

Hey, What Are We Searching For? Battle of the Deluxe Top 41 Edition.

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So the other day I’m surfing on Twitter. Sorry “surfing” is slang that means I was standing in Twitter. Suddenly a thing lit up. It was a question from loyal reader/comment poster/twitter follower-interacter/fellow blog haver @Rory_mg. He said, “@wtyky” and I said, “Yes, @rory_mg?” He said, “What’s the weirdest search term that has been used to bring ppl to your blog? Apparently I’m the go to for “shea weber shirtless”

Thanks for your question and follow up statement, Ror’. Now, as none of you know, we here at WTYKY track many strange search items on our Big Brotheresque surveillance  system. Items that bring us tiny crystal marshmallows of joy and traffic. We even started a periodical column called “Hey, What Are We Searching For?” that I would appreciate you pretending you read. So many memories. Sharing  both the laughter and love.
Before Rory (I’m assuming his real name is Rory)’s question came along, I had never considered these search items in terms of an overall Champion of Weirdness. I figured since there is NOT EVEN SO MUCH AS GODDAMN TRAINING CAMP TO WRITE ABOUT I would go through a bunch. OH NO NO NO WAIT WAIT You don’t have to go through all them yet! I still have some stuff to tell you! As you’ll seeeee EYES UP! As you will see, the crop was too bountiful for me to choose a favorite. I leave it to you, dear reader, with a list of the top #41 with a snide comment from yours truly in brackets for good measure. Vote for your favorite one in the poll or in the comment section. Our team of crack researchers (the name comes from what we pay them in!) will tally the results and our very own Steven will create an image representing the winner*!

*With the exception of #12 you can go anywhere to see that. Page me if you want some EXCLUSIVE recommendations. I will be counting any votes for 12 as Sergio Gonchar because that is my pick as it is what I want most to see Steve do something with.

In no particular order the nominees are…

1. brodeur crayon picture (Looks surprisingly like a blonde TJ’s Big Boy)

2. jail_infinity room (Home sweet home)

3. yoda cop (Look forward to more amazing fan fiction like this in the event of a lockout!)

4. erik karlsson ottawa bod (I don’t know if we’ve made any posts specifically about that (yet) but…I would imagine dude has a pretty killer bod, THANKS FOR READING!)

5. jail_infinity code (#45349596546897569823452908240598420569248503495680569803968063458036752689357015-9048526858976905867)

6. sammy hagar a jerk (Don’t take my word for it! Read all about it in his new tell all autobiography, “Red” or according to Wikipedia, his cameo as a bartender in an episode of Nash Bridges)

7. piss off we’re full (we’re not full btw, in fact, Welcome to our internet kingdom! …follow us on twitter/everything/seriously there’s a lockout looming please help us)

8. sergio gonchar (La più bella uomo difesa italiana a cinghia mai su un paio di pattini da ghiaccio! Saluti Sergio!)

9. mike fisher t-shirt chopped into pieces (okay my little Senscrafters, now let’s get out our glue stick and begin distributing the shirt pieces evenly over the Spartacat hair …good. That’s good. Now lets apply some of our Alex Auld mask sparkles!)

10. logos fish (Ugh! ANOTHER Logo’s Land redirect)

11. bdsm penalty bench (Wow, the internet is not doing a very good job of helping people find what they are looking for)

12. fucking couple (No, really, the internet is not doing a very good job of helping people find what they are looking for…I can think of maybe a billion better sites to find that on than ours. You’re fired Askjeeves! )

13. pissed off toddlers (Funny, we haven’t written about the labor negotiations very much so far)

14. in dads pool (that’s where you’ll fiiiiiiiiiiind meeee…peeing…and…blogging)

15. head shots of Christ (We’re like the Judeo-Christian IMDB)

16. bill simmons idea (Our office is actually just like a sports writer version of Being John Malkovich but with hockey writers…or are we like Herman’s Head? Either way, Yardley Smith is here. REFERENCES!)

17. lame palm (We are SO over those leaves and we are not about to stop writing about how whack they are. Oh and you’re next ASPEN LEAVES)

18. english homework covers (I think we can agree English Homework is one of the greatest bands of all time but we do not endorse any covers or remixes of their songs. Just leave those classics be!)

19. make me feel pretty (Done and done. YOURE WELCOME READERS)

20..shittiness travelled back in time (Someone must have been searching for one of our old posts)

21. pissed off boy + table ( = us blogging, right?)

22. “colin mcgowan” and “desire” (I don’t even know what that is. I have to admit I suddenly find myself jealous of Colin McGowan)

23. sphere watch (The conclusion of Michael Crichton’s classic left a LOT of questions unanswered… join the conversation on twitter by searching #spherewatch today!)

24. chris campoli blog (Okay, if this existed it would be one of the best things on the internet….I would be willing to settle for a Campoli twitter parody someone get on this)

25. uhh ahh game (Uhh…AHH…AHH…AHH UHH …Ahh. I win again. Don’t mess with the master.)

26. highlights of Canada (You guys, we’ve been shortlisted!!!)

27. real unicorn still alive (but…for how long?)

28. jarkko ruutu flute (from the makers of Mike Comrie Oboe and Wade Redden Bouzouki)

29. teemu selanne yacht (From our classic coverage, “Aint No Party Like a Teemu in International Waters Party!” I still have a couple scars from that weekend. Worth it.)

30. foods that rhyme (4 hits based on this! What can I say people flock to us for ideas on how to complete that poem about nutritious snacks)

31. new age fantasy (basically your poem about nutritious snacks but accompanied by Jarkko Ruutu flute and taking place on Teemu Selanne’s yacht in the fourth dimension)

32. ngwafusi (Look, I have a tendency to mash the keyboard with my hands…but after a bit of research it’s someone’s last name. I ask you this: Which of these two things brought us this traffic?)

33. these are your karlson years sens blog (this one is not all that odd but it is a very, very popular searh item. Are you trying to tell us that we should have called this blog “These Are Your Karlsson Years”?_

34. advantages of hard work (how in god’s name did this get associated with us?)

35. sleeping (now thaaaaaaaaat’s more like it)

36. fantasy place (now thaaaaaaaaaat’s even more like it…unless that’s supposed to mean fantasy as in “fantasy sports pool” … Ask Varada about that kind of shit)

37. bogglins (Question: Do we really reference Bogglins that much? Follow up question: Would anyone subscribe to a podcast about Bogglins if we started one?)

38. phantasy acid bilder (10 minute organ solo followed by 15 minute bass solo followed by you waking up in a hospital)

39. young pierre mcguire photos (WTYKY…your source…for….why are you looking for that and why did you think that we have that?)

40. alkoholizam (I kann kwit anythyme I whant)

and finally I’ll just leave this one alone to echo through the corridors of centuries…

41. oops embarrassed fart

ESPN Releases Ultimate Standings, acknowledges that Ottawa has a sports franchise

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ESPN’s crack team of NHL analysts

It’s only natural that the hockey community’s perspective on ESPN’s amazing/contentious idea, their “Ultimate Standings,” would focus on the Leafs being dead last among all sports franchises. For even such a flawed methodology as one that basically asks a frustrated group of fans what they think, those results deserve a little bit of commentary. But there might also be a few things we can learn from what amounts to marketing data made public.

(Aside: what is with this trend? Pitchfork did something similar with their People’s List, which was treated around the internet as if it wasn’t just free market research. They even broke down all the demographics. Sports has always been a little bit more comfortable with its commercial nature, but indie music? It’s a weird contradiction to me to have so many indie fans happy to share their consumer habits in a public way.)

ESPN’s methodology is a combination of the standard—weighted averages across eight key categories, designed to smooth outliers and exemptions, economic analysis—and counterproductive—polling fans by phone and online. I say it’s counterproductive because if the goal is to collect reliable data and drop the extreme deviations, then you’d also need to account for the fact that sports fans tend to harbor hyperbolic attitudes towards their favorite and least favorite franchises. You can’t just ask sports fans for the objective truth. A real “Ultimate List” would measure fans actions over time, as opposed to opinions. (That’s an interesting discussion in itself: what counts? Just attendance at events and watching on TV, or blogging, and shopping, and Tweeting, etc.?) It’s not unusual for a sports fan to put one thing in extremely strong terms and do another thing altogether.

It’s also difficult to understand how a fan in one city might render judgment of another city’s “fan experience.” How would an Ottawa Senators fan answer the question of fan experience about the Leafs? I’ve been to a Leafs game and thought the atmosphere was amazing, especially considering they were already out of the playoffs and they were playing the Blues. Can I be trusted, as a rival fan, to say that in a poll? Even just looking at Title Track: “Championships already won or expected in the lifetime of current fans.” Pretty sure we know how Leafs fans feel about the latter part of that sentence, but they won quite a few Cups back when the sport was played in a tanning factory in Depression Era New England. How does a Leafs fan answer that question v. a Sens fan?

A good deal of the factors are economic—in other words, value for money—which is often tied directly to how poor the team is. The Coyotes are listed as the best NHL team on the strength of coaching, loyalty to players, and how cheap everything is. Depending on solid coaching, loyal players, and cheap tickets is just the sort of thing a team this close to folding has to do.

Therein is the contradiction for fans to consider when in the middle of CBA negotiation designed to increase the prosperity of teams. If the Toronto Maple Leafs, the most profitable team in the league, are the worst at delivering a good product at a good price, and the Coyotes, a total financial mess, are the best, is there an inverse relationship between a team’s profitability and fan enjoyment? Makes sense to me. You will derive more value buying products that are not in high demand. The OHL team in Ottawa, the 67s, delivers an amazing product for about $20 a pop. That’s much more value than the Senators, but we can’t pretend that the OHL is the NHL anymore than we can pretend that the Coyotes are as valuable to the league as the Leafs.

It calls into question the way the ratings are weighted. Title track is weighted much less than, say, coaching or affordability. But I can imagine quite a few Leafs fans who would think that all of the expensive tickets and years of poor coaching would be worth it if they could have that one, cathartic championship win. More importantly, I can think of a few Leafs fans who would spend all of their money on anything Leafs related if the Leafs won a cup. But it’s still a valid question: would you rather have a cheap and still reasonably fun hockey experience or a contender?

A lot of the NHL teams near the top of list are either teams that are forced to sell cheap tickets due to poor economic performance, or are in non-traditional hockey markets—Tampa Bay, New Jersey, Nashville, St. Louis. Some of the most profitable teams in hockey are near or at the bottom—the New York Rangers are in the middle at 63, the Canucks are 92, Montreal is 111, and of course Toronto is last at 122. I’m left to wonder, relying only on the results of ESPN’s flawed algorithm, if the fan who intersects with the game on very tangible levels—how much do tickets cost and does the team win?—will be better off without greater economic and performance parity. It seems to me that the better the team is in both of these categories, the more the fan is bled for their bucks.

It’s something to consider as players and league officials try to win the hearts and minds of fans during a lockout. Bettman has promised lower ticket prices before, and he probably learned enough of a lesson not to do that again. But when asked what they want out of this whole mess, fans may do well to remember that the owners have no intention of making their product more affordable if they get the kind of concessions they’re seeking from the players.

For Sens fans, Ottawa finds itself at a respectable 42. They do particularly well in fan relations (32), ownership (25 – which also includes community involvement, which Ottawa has a great history of. Glad to see it recognized here) and, interestingly, coaching and on-field leadership (21). You’ve got Jack Adams nominee Paul MacLean, and Alfredsson as one of the longest serving captains in the league, but last year they were rated 117 in that category. Quite an improvement for one year. Similarly, ownership improved by 25 spots and fan relations by 20 spots. The players’ ‘effort and likeability’ also improved an incredible 47 spots, which sounds about right considering the team doesn’t employ Alex Kovalev anymore.

I don’t know if the team’s community outreach was really that much better last season than the season before, but that’s fan perception for you: if a team outperforms dismal expectations, every single aspect of your team is perceived more favorably. It will be interesting to see where Ottawa figures on this list next year now that the Hockey News has picked them to be a playoff team. In the meantime, we’re left to wonder if the next six or seven year CBA will create a landscape in which owners will make much more profit and pass along their good fortune to us in the form of price hikes.

“Let’s Give ‘Em Somethin’ to Talk About. How About Terrrrrm”

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Contracts, right?

James

Bryan Murray bolts upright in bed in the middle of the night in sweat soaked pajamas, “I must give the bloggers something to talk about. I must sign another highly debatable contract!” And you KNOW he wears those weird suit pajamas. Anyway, thank you Bryan for the conversational items this summer. You know though, I think we’re kind of good now homie. You don’t need to preemptively sign each and every Ben Bishop to 4 years. It’s alright if you just cool out and wait and see on a couple of these guys…

Okay so the big thing with this deal is that it addresses a team need. With Konopka and Carkner both gone the team lacked a tough presence and aside from Darren Kramer, I don’t think Ottawa has much coming down the pike (Varada taught me that saying!) in the way of Zack Smith type guys. It would seem the farm system has truly entered its Shane Prince type guy years. What I mean by that is the vast majority of prospects in the pool are of the “top 6 or bust” variety. Sure there are a couple of big strapping dudes like Ben Blood kicking around but speaking frankly, he was drafted in 2007 and Blood probably would have made the team by now if he was going to. Nearly all the teams in the North East got tougher and I don’t think Ottawa can much afford to wait around for another Matt Carkner to emerge. Speaking of which, even though the heavyweight toughness of Carkner will be missed it’s pretty good to see that a defensive defenseman wont constantly be sitting in the penalty box serving fighting majors.

There’s been some ballyhoo so far surrounding Smith’s lack of NHL points but to base the dollar value of all contracts on points is pretty narrow minded. So is discounting the value of a guy who can punch someone’s lights out if need be *gets pelted with internet tomatoes*. I know the NHL doesn’t have room for straight up goons like it used to (WHICH IS FINE!) but to think we’re in a post-enforcer world is ignorant of Dan Carcillo/Steve Downie/Brandon Prust type guys all over the league and more specifically in our division. Isn’t that right Sideshow Patrick Kaleta?

We all want Erik Karlsson to be happy and healthy and productive going forward and anyone who watched the Sens latest playoff series knows deep down that people are going to try and stop this through physical force and intimidation. And if anyone thinks the threat of penalties and suspensions is going to stop that…what am I talking about? OH RIGHT, Zack Smith’s contract. What I’m saying is Smith is clearly not just a fighter he, like Chris Neil, is a player that can fight and this is how your tough guys have to be in 2012. Points wise, Smith’s 14 goals last season is only one short of Chris Kelly’s career high as a Senator and Chris Kelly was awesome. He has the capacity to stick up for his teammates should the need arise but he’s not going to sit in the press box until the Bruins come to town. I like that balance.

The biggest gamble here is this: Betting that Smith’s nearly complete drop off in production (12 goals in first half of the season, 2 in the second) was definitely attributed to overplay between Binghamton and Ottawa. He reproduces or bests he’s a great deal. He drops off, ehhhhhhh he still doesn’t really make all that much and still protects our wee ones. Like Varada said in a recent post (I don’t know which one I don’t read this thing, blech) I don’t really care if Eugene pays 1.88MM for a player or 600K so long as they deserve their spot in the lineup. The trick here is that it would seem is that Smith is now expected to perform his role consistently into his late 20s.

To be perfectly honest, contracts like this make me feel like I know bupkis about building and managing a hockey team (THANKS FOR READING!). A four year term for a guy like Z Smith shows there is some kind of intricate strategy at work here. My best guess is it’s The Euge saying, “Murray, make the core of this team as high quality as you can manage and make it as cheap as possible going forward.” If the Sens are to be a team operating on the cheap while avoiding being the New York Islanders, I suppose a gamble or two is in order…that doesn’t mean I get why they gave him four years though.

The funniest thing I read so far was that the deal maybe had too much $$$ mustard on it and could potentially block the future acquisition of a missing piece. Even with additional signings the Sens could still potentially through around Shea Weber money if they wanted too. With the Sens hovering at the cap floor I sincerely doubt Smith’s contract would ever get in the way of a big deal getting done and even it did a guy who can actually play AND fight will always find a home in a trade and at 1.88MM. In the event of complete failure what would a buyout on that contract look like? A drop in the bucket as far as buyouts go.

Varaaaaaaada

I’ll just start by saying that when you consider $3MM a year / 4 year deal Boston gave Chris Kelly, well, this doesn’t look too bad. And we are basically talking about the same player here, with a few minor adjustments: third line centers who play the penalty kill and can occasionally chip in with a goal. Those players are valuable, and that Smith agitates (I don’t think he really “enforces” all that much) is a plus. So it’s impossible for me to get mad about the money. Also, refer to my rambling and not-very-coherent post from a few days ago about how I really couldn’t give a shit if Eugene Melnyk is paying $500k more than he needs to for his third line center if the team is going to be $18MM below the cap. What should it be? $1.3MM, $1.4MM? How many season ticket packages have been sold so far? Who cares.

As always, it’s the term that’s just totally weird. If I had the gumption and I wasn’t writing this post in the middle of a Powerpoint presentation I’m delivering to my organization’s board of directors, I’d look up some great posts from James Mirtle on just how replaceable bottom six forwards are. I don’t want to underestimate how hard it is to draft and develop an NHL player–any NHL player–but look at the UFA market. I’m pretty sure you can find a bottom six center who can also play on the penalty kill, especially if you’re willing to pay $1.88MM for him. Also: Ottawa’s penalty kill wasn’t even all that good. It was 20th in the league last year. I don’t know, blame Chris Phillips or whoever. Probably shouldn’t have signed that dude to so many years either.

What? Oh, what we’re talking about, right: four years for a replaceable player is totally weird. I don’t know if the team thinks that Smith can stand in occasionally as a top six center during injuries, but remember when we didn’t have a second line center last year? Who got that spot? Nick Foligno…a winger. Smith stayed right where he was, getting 14 minutes a night. Then again, this is a team that pays Chris Neil a couple million bucks to be Chris Neil. It has a lot of affection for putting $8MM-$10MM on the third line, if only to balance out getting value from Colin Greening, I guess. Also, look at the structure of Smith’s deal. He’s making $2.35MM in the last year of his deal! What exactly does the team think he’ll be doing that year? If he ends up losing his job to 2014-15’s version of Kaspars Daugavins, Murray is gonna look plenty stupid. (From his cottage.)

Maybe Melnyk is feeding Bry-Bry super-secret information from the totally mature and completely reasonable CBA negotiations currently taking place in Cold War Russia. If there’s a salary roll-back, or increased escrow, or ow my brain hurts, then maybe this team is just locking the fuck up out of everyone knowing they’re about to get downsized and shipped off to India to answer technical support questions for confused white people who don’t know how to search for documents.