Roundtable of Death – Draft Edition

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Varada

I’m torn about the Cody Ceci pick, which is to say that I’m not totally pumped, but I’m on board for now.

Obviously snagging the second highest scoring defenseman in the OHL, who is already man-sized (copyright PJ Harvey) at 6’1, 205 lbs, and was forecast to go in the top ten, is a huge plus. It may actually qualify as a steal. Ottawa didn’t need to give up assets to trade up. They got a hometown boy. All these things are awesome things.

Of my two outstanding doubts, which I guess are healthy to have when we’re talking drafting 18 years olds, the first is outlined in my previous post and expanded on with typical rigor by Tyler Dellow over here. The gist is that defensemen are less likely to become elite than forwards because their development is more difficult to predict, and as such it makes more sense to use valuable first round picks on forwards and more late-round picks on defensemen. Obviously this didn’t bear out this year, with 257 defensemen selected in the first 15 picks.

The second doubt comes from having left skilled Teuvo Teravainen on the board. I have no more detailed analysis than that, only that Teravainen seemed like the most skilled forward left at 15th, and I wonder if it makes sense to use first rounders on forwards. Having said that, Ottawa drafted Karlsson and Cowen with valuable first rounders, and, here’s the latest from the House of Small Sample Sizes: those decisions seem to be working out well.

Other random thoughts: Ottawa drafted not one, but TWO goaltenders, the last of which is from the QMJHL, which James and I were just joking doesn’t produce a lot of great goaltenders, hence the 5th round picks who have scored a point-and-a-half per game in that league. Also Chris Driedger, who I know nothing about but whose numbers look terrible, but hey it’s goaltending. Nobody knows anything. Malcolm Subban got drafted in the first round, fer Chrissake, and I’ve only ever seen that guy allow goals in bunches.

Who else had a tingle to see Filip Forsberg fall to 11th? Would have been incredible to trade up to get him, though without any 2nd round picks that would have been hard to do.

Finally, on the trade front, it seems a lot less likely that Ottawa would be involved for any of the stars on the block – Nash or Ryan – without that 15th overall pick to throw in the package. That’s probably a good thing.

James

First off, I know we just signed our domain name to a lucrative 7 year contract but does anyone want to change the name of the blog to, “I’m Not Totally Pumped But I’m On Board For Now Dot Com”? I just feel that really gives the reader an idea of what it is we do here.

Yeah, I don’t know, all due respect, I’m not ready to buy into this 20 minute old theory of ‘don’t waste your first round pick on a defenseman’ that’s been going around lately. If only because of the Sens last two defensemen taken in the first round. Maybe I’m too hands off with the draft because of the many Wiccan ceremonies that have to be held in order to take someone. I missed the entire first round because the movie Labyrinth was on television which I mistook for the draft. The calculation of the percentage of picks that “work out” (hard to define in and of itself) depends on way too many things that, I feel, do factor in, to name a few: Organizational incompetence (Call it the Calgary Factor), player attitude (Filatov Factor), reaction to pressure/bring rushed to perform (Schenn Factor), ever changing respective team needs/trends (ajghraseb factor) and a liberal sprinkling of some straight up bullshit (Datsyuk Factor…seriously, fuck you Detroit…FUCK. You.). I guess what I’m saying is, I never feel more out of my element than at the draft. Case in point, flash back…

TV: “We have a trade to announce….the Ottawa Senators exchange the sixteenth overall pick for 2009 17th overall pick David Rundblad of Skelleftea of Elitserien”
Me: “Cooooool…..I have no idea what’s happening” *takes sip of Zima*”

Or

TV: “and the Ottawa Senators take Mika Zibanejad of the SEL…Zibanejad had 9 goals in 27 games for Djurgardens last season”
Me: “Cooooooool….I have no idea if that’s good” *takes sip of Zima*

Or

Not even on TV at this point: “and the Ottawa Senators take Mark Stone of the Brandon Wheat Kings with the 178th overall pick. He had 106 points in 71 games second only to first overall pick, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins”
Me: Makes sense. *Portal to the lower forth dimension begins to open on my living room floor*

I like stories. I’m saying, I’m totally fine with Cody Ceci. In fact seems like a logical pick. For all the panic going on in the Sensphere about the future of the blueline I can’t be at all mad at the Sens for making a big investment in it this year (as they did drafting King K and …. Count…Cowen…). I’m especially comfortable with the pick considering that Murray n’ Murray took 3 forwards in the first round alone a year ago. I don’t know why Teravainen dropped so many spots. You know what else I don’t know? Very much about him! I figure Ottawa’s scouts do and I wish the Blackhawks nothing but less success than the Senators in future endeavors!

On a personal note, because of his time with the 67s I’ve had the pleasure of watching Cody Ceci really come into his own at the OHL level which is exciting. I have a lot of respect for the OHL game and think it is a great finishing school for young players before they are draft eligible.

As for drafting two goalies, man, Dorion was not bluffing about that, eh? I see this as Ottawa potentially hedging their bets as we are currently seeing in the NHL trend report that goalie is the new puck moving defenseman (i.e. inflated value). One thing I do know is that I’m glad that Ottawa did not take Malcolm Subban. Look, PK Subban is a very engaging, handsome young man and a good hockey player so naturally his brother is a very good goaltender that I’ve never seen play a good game against the 67s. I could eat my words but for now I’m relieved that the Sens didn’t take him.

Final thought: Happiest part of draft weekend. Not trading a bunch of stuff for Rick Nash. Being bummed out at the idea of acquiring Rick Nash is kind of hilarious but I’d rather the Sens just take their time with the Rebuild. I am way more comfortable with a Kyle Turris type move. Young, cheap skill on the upswing of their career.

Varada

Yeah, I totally hear what you’re saying about how the draft is so riddled with exceptions that it can’t make much sense to be disappointed to be picking a top player with a top pick. I guess from a statistical point of view there are a whole bunch of collar-tugging anxieties – how many OHL defensemen have worked out for the Sens? (6th Sens looked at this. Not many.) How many defensemen in the first round turn into regular NHLers? (Not elite, just actual players who contribute at some level. Again, not many.) And so on. But if this team was going to take a defenseman, I’m glad it’s this one. I mean, it’s kept me from having to do a great deal of background reading about, uhhhhh…Jacob Trouba? Or Slater Koekkek, who is also an OHL defenseman, and who Tampa took five spots higher than Ceci.

I’m coming around to the idea of Rick Nash, but like you were saying when we were drinking beers in an art house basement yesterday while waiting for our friend’s experimental film festival to start (actual thing that happened!): let’s get in on this Bobby Ryan action first.

Pete

There was an experimental film festival and I wasn’t invited? You go now!

Jk, arty playboys, I’m so boned with work and moving and junk that getting this reply out is a minor miracle.

Some rando thoughts on the draft. One, the 24 hours sports news cycle puts way more creedence into the draft than it actually merits. Did you know baseball only recently started televising their amateur draft? And by recently I mean this year, on the MLB network. ESPN or Fox Sports Net wouldn’t touch it. Two, the quality of this draft was definitely on the flaccid side of exciting. The few fleeting moments I did watch were frought with analysts trying to spin the dirt off it like a basketball that rolled into a puddle (sports similies, get your sports similies!)

That being said, I was surprised there wasn’t more wheeling and dealing. A defense heavy flavor usually indicates that gm’s decide this is the year they shore up the substance and take fliers on flash with less frequency. You’d think there’d be a propensity for moving picks. Nope, strange.

Now to the sens…uh, this draft really didn’t really register with yours truly, I like the Ceci pick because it plays well in Peoria (uh I mean Nepean) he’s got decent size and can skate so why not throw the loeb cookie club a bone and take the kid. Side note: Missed Ottawa Citizen sports headline opportunity “Finally!” (Cece Peniston ref there for the non gospel crowd) Two forwards in the whole bunch?

Last thought, I feel like someone should get Scott Howson’s office number, call him up asking who he’d like to recieve (regardless of team) in exchange for Nash. While he runs down the Joey Crabb’s and Nick Schultz’s of the league rip a huge fart (fake or real, not picky) into the phone and hang up. Get over yourself Scott, you’re not lacing em up and you’re not winning this deal. Your star has sabotaged any leverage.

(microphone drop, exeunt)

Some here and there around the draft

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We’ll have our draft roundtable up later today or tomorrow, with scintillating reactions to taking Cody Ceci at 15th overall, but until then…

Rick Nash

I never took the rumors very seriously, given that most of them seemed to originate from Twitter and referenced “league sources.” (Which could mean literally anyone from an assistant GM to the guy who maintains the Minnesota Wild’s website.) But with stories like this one being written I’m starting to get seriously worried about Ottawa actually pulling off this trade.

What if Murray actually meets Scott Howson’s ridiculously high asking price? You might have a minor fan revolt on your hands. It will signify that we’re returning to the Spezza-with-Heatley era of top-heavy talent on the first line, and before we even get to enjoy the benefits of such a deep prospect pool. I would much rather this team throw everything they have at Ryan Suter, overspending on a blue chip defenseman, than give up assets for Nash. I don’t hate his contract as much as most, but I just can’t see it being worth the trading price, especially now that Howson’s already traded for a goaltender and our first round pick is used up.

Clearly Murray is in the last couple of years of his last contract as a GM, so the message is “screw slow-and-steady.” If he has one more year of Dany Alfredsson, he’s going to swing for the fences with Nash and then it’s someone else’s problem. The reality that the next Senators team to truly compete will probably be one with Silfverberg, Noesen, Stone, Zibanejad, Lehner, Puempel, Cowen and Karlsson all in their prime, not one where Rick Nash gets to play with Jason Spezza.

But what about the package mentioned here? Zibanejad, Foligno, Ben Bishop, and next year’s first round pick? That has me curious, and thinking it might be worth the risk. It certainly isn’t mortgaging the future. A very good prospect still years from being an impact player, if ever, when the team has oodles of forward depth right now; a good roster player who still finds himself on the third line more often than not; and a backup goaltender just acquired this year for a second round pick. That’s not much at all. The first round pick is a bit more worrisome, given that 1) we really have no idea where Ottawa will finish in the standings next year, and spending about $8MM on Nash doesn’t leave much money left over to sign some defencemen, and 2) Ottawa doesn’t have a second round pick next year either because of the Bishop trade.

But remember: screw it. This season just might be Murray’s Alamo. He’s going for it.

Also, it might be worth it because Leafs fans have been salivating over Nash for years. (Though I think most of them have to be over it now, what with their souls having been repeatedly crushed. Can they even feel feelings anymore?)

More interestingly, I think, is to parallel with Ryan Lambert’s weekly trolling where he quite rightly points out that all of these sign-and-trade maneuvers by large market clubs should put a seed of doubt in the minds of players. Why would you sign with Philadelphia or New York when you know that you can be traded after signing a 12 year deal, like Jeff Carter, or buried in the minors like Wade Redden? And why, if players know this, would Rick Nash only submit to be traded to the Rangers? At least you know that if you go to Ottawa they’re not going to loan you to a Swiss team just to get rid of the cap hit.

Toronto

How hilarious is this team. One of the worst defensive teams in the league, and they trade a 22 year old defenseman who figures to break through and become a part of their top four for years to come for a forward. Perfect. No goaltending, no defense. The war against traditional rebuilding continues.

The Staal Trade

Really, really surprised Shero didn’t shop him around a little bit more. One week they offer him a 10 year deal paying him $6MM a year (which, by the way, they should be very glad he turned down), and the very next week Staal is gone. Not sure if they wanted to get it done so they could take the extra picks this year, but I imagine the return could have been higher if they’d waited until after July 1st, when Parise and Suter have signed, Nash and Ryan are traded, and the other 25 teams who banked absolutely everything on getting one of those four guys are left holding the bag. Unless of course they cleared cap space because the Pens intend to take a run at Parise, which…good grief. Do all of these GMs know that he can only sign with one team?

Preds

This didn’t get reported on much, but the Nashville Predators signed a new arena lease deal that should keep them in their city until 2028. Why am I linking to this on a Senators blog? As a fan who’s lived through bankruptcy, and who considers the Preds a bit of a model franchise, I have a lot of empathy with Nashville fans. They’re also set to lose Ryan Suter for nothing, which we lived through with Chara. But it’s nice to know that they can count on their team being around for years to come. Congrats, Predators fans.

Our Special Little Guy Wins the Norris

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Clearly it’s the best time to trade him. His value will never be higher! We could get a second round pick for this year’s draft.

Not much to say here that hasn’t already been said: Karlsson’s win is only an upset in the context that people who haven’t really watched him play that much don’t like his lack of penalty killing. But hey, it’s an award without any clearly outlined criteria. What do you expect? Don’t hate democracy. He could just have easily been robbed because Weber was “due.” I find the Jack Adams way more problematic. (It’s awarded to the coach who does the most with the least OR the coach who takes over midway and makes the biggest difference. Never mind that these two things aren’t valued relative to each other very well, or that we don’t know if “doing the most” is as important as “having the least.” Ugh, who cares.)

Anyway, Pierre McGuire said he puts the over/under on Norris trophies for Karlsson at three, which is amazing.

Especially nice to see the win against former Senator and The One Who Got Away, Zdeno Chara.

Anyway, this is just a quick note to say congratulations to Our Special Little Guy on the best week of his life. I know that if I won a major award on the same week that I made $45.5 million, I’d probably have a spring in my step. We hitched this blog train to the right player. Good thing we didn’t name ourselves “For Relaxing Times, Make it Konoptka Time.”

In which we analyze a deal that has the support of 95% of Sens fans and 5% of Leafs fans

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Varada

WHAT I LIKE:

From what I understand, this is a back-loaded deal that increases from $4MM to $7.5MM over its term. This is actually pretty refreshing in an era of front-loaded, long-tail contracts designed to lower a cap hit.

It rewards a young, skilled player, and presumes that he will get better. Sports is one of those few spaces where people can talk about honor, and doing it the right way, and not laugh. Well, that there is an honorable contract. Murray has shown that he will hand these kinds of contracts out to core players. He’s living within his means, while paying players what they’re worth. From that standpoint, what’s not to like about this deal?

Obviously we have a good player locked up for some of his UFA years when he could, presumably, make more money by signing a short term deal, make it to the UFA market, take a 12 year deal from Philadelphia and then be traded to Columbus.

WHAT I LIKE LESS:

I guess there is some risk in that Karlsson has only had one elite year (if you don’t count last year’s 50 point season as elite for a defenceman), and the structure of this deal assumes he’ll produce for several. This isn’t a big gripe, though – even if he regresses back to a 50 point defenceman, that’s well worth the $4MM he’ll be paid in year one. (And he was 20 points ahead of the next best offensive defenseman, so if he regresses, it will be to the strata of other elite D.) There’s an argument to be made that a 2-3 year deal to make sure he’s legit is worth it, even if you have to then pay out more.

Ottawa now only has $26 MILLION in cap space, with the tenth lowest payroll in the league. Poor Euge. How will he get by?

James

WHAT I LIKE:

–          Karlsson signs deal with Ottawa for 7 years. Straight up. Takes me back to the salad days of the signings of several amazing players to long deals such as Spezza, Heatley (which was the style at the time), Fisher, Alfie when it just seemed like the team was going to be amazing forever…forever…forever…for– *snaps out of it* I don’t suppose I’m alone in thinking that it has been many years of looking at a contract like a countdown, “Only one more year of this Kovalev horseshit” or “Only two more years till Cheechoo/LeClaire/Emery/Gerber/Rumsfeld is finally off the books.” I remember a number of times driving home from my old job at the WTYKY.com Planning Committee, turning on necessary evil TEAM 1200 and every other day there being an announcement “…And the Sens have locked up Dan(n)y Heatley (or whoever) for the foreseeable future” and just reacting like, “Good, species just got stronger…see you every year Stanley Cup finals.” Hmmmm not exactly the way things worked out or anything but I have longed for the times when locking up a cornerstone player was a thing of celebration and not just an argument over whether term or dollars was more of a mistake…I mean, that’s fun too but its basically only been that for quite some time. 

–          It’s a long deal but not absolutely INSANE in its length. I feel 7 was my personal comfort zone max and anything between 8 and 10 was plain scary. 7 is enough to show faith that this is definitely a guy that the organization plans to build around during this important phase but not so long like those terrifying Luongo, Carter, DiPietro, Kovalchuck “ill play here until I’m dead” deals. I’m not trying to be foolishly proud on the Sens’ behalf I’m just saying, as a huge fan of Karlsson, I wanted a long deal, would have lived with a shorter deal considering the circumstances surrounding this off season but preferred long. I got what I was hoping for and within reason.
 
–          Length of the deal keeps the cap hit decent for what should continue to be an elite puck mover and hopefully the Sens are going to have a lot of great young players to keep together down the line and will have more room to do it this. As we all know windows of contention are brief in the NHL’s current paradigm and whatever potentially keeps that window open longer is great news to me.
 
–          Initiates what feels to be an official passing of the torch for the organization. We Sens fans got to enjoy some pretty damn strong years in the early to mid-2000s…and then the team kind of drifted into its experimental jazz years. Which…sucked. Coach merry go ‘round, Heatleygate, trade Spezza bull, hobos, sea captains, Joey Bishop. Initiating Senate Reform showed the brass was serious, but this signing is an indication that the future is quickly becoming now. 
 
–          Leafs fans are absolutely hating on this deal which can only mean it’s a great thing.
 
WHAT I LIKE LESS:

–          Comes this monies, comes the pressures. Varada and I watched a lot of games together this season and when Karlsson was really pouring it on and his point totals were starting to get really really real, like the 60+ range when he’d score, one of us would say, “Every 2 points he puts up equals a new hover sea-doo on pay day.” Two point Karlsson games are henceforth known as Hover Sea Doo games.  Well, my Special Little Guy, hover sea-doos achieved. And how. He’s got hover sea-doos all the live long day for the foreseeable future. We’ve seen it countless times where a player signs a huge contract (withthenewyorkrangers) and loses their edge as a player. One would imagine that as of yesterday a certain career goal has been achieved in LARGE by Karlsson. Of course, your Gomez, Redden, Bowmeester type regressions are always highlighted and highlighted again because its fun and easy. The other side of it is that a lot of players sign huge deals and continue to perform at a high level. Heck our own Jason Spezza has despite injury put up a point a game since signing an even more lucrative contract. Its not a science how players react. It will always be a gamble to do something like this. I’d rather have a GM who takes a gamble on an Erik Karlsson than not. If there’s been one thing EK has done in his career so far, it’s been defying the naysayers. Odds are pretty good Papa Alfie has instilled some his legendary game in and game out work ethic on his young brorson (look it up). Teams are going to be clamping down on our Special Little Guy from here on out but he knows haters gon’ hate. GET EM!

Hey, Ever Wonder What I Have to Say About Ottawa’s Prospects vs. The FA Market? WAIT, WAIT, COME BACK!!

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I didnt get to use this during the regular season. I mean, ehhhhh…Erik Karlsson is awesome and has little to do with this post.

WHOA GUYS, GUYS, GUYS, GUYS, GUYS, GUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYS…and Laaaaaaaaaadiiiiiiiiies….

And by “guys and laaaaaaaaaaaaadiiiiiiies” I mean everybody. What is going on with all the fussin’ and the fightin’ about pick/prospect/roster player trade packages and signing every FA coming up on the approaching market ALL THE LIVE LONG DAY? Puppies, puppies, I leave for <insertnumberofdayssincetheSenswereeliminated> days and this is what I come back (from jail) to? You well know I won’t have no fussin’ in this house so let’s settle it. Now, are we serious about this or do we just have the summertime blues because let’s face it, none of us can really get into how LA signed both Mike Richards AND took on Jeff Carter’s stupid, stupid contract and won the whole bleeping thing. Lets have a brief (overly long) boring chat about it…

Picture this, Sicily (Ottawa), the year, 19dickitty2 (2011) the Sicilian government (Bryan Murray and The Euge) decided to invoke austerity measures on the people of (I think I’ll stop this stupid, stupid joke now)…what I’m saying is, as we all know, back at the end of the 2010-2011 season several beloveds (Fi$her, Kelly, etc) and maligned turdlingers (Kovalev, Elliot, etc) alike were jettisoned in exchange for picks and Craig Anderson. A core of leaders were kept around to keep the new squadron of rookies and misfit toys in line.

Rebuild, retool, all you can eat breadsticks and pizzasalad, senate reform, whatever you call it, this was the plan for the foreseeable future. Buckle your blowout belts (?) and get ready for flushing your ticket money down the turlet. For a couple of years looked like we were in for watching the lowly Sens get beat badly by our boring cousins like the Buffalo Sabres on a Tuesday night…that or …just start getting into going to more 67s games for a bit :)Follow me? The Gentle Art of Lowered Expectations.

Fans were cool with it despite being informed constantly by the media that we weren’t. Was it really so surprising that fans might be okay with saying goodbye to the days of the Senators signing the hockey equivalent of mid career Nicolas Cage for way too much cap space? Oh sure, occasionally you get Oscar winning Leaving Las Vegas Nick Cage but most of the time you get Ghost Rider* Nicholas Kovalev…I mean Nicolas Cage.

The season rolled around and everything was going according to plan….except for one thing: The Sens weren’t getting blown out every night. Actually, many scenarios not named Bobby Butler were working out rather well. The team was scoring (top AND bottom six!), was well coached, rookies were holding their own for the most part, Anderson was doing his thing, stars were healthy, vets were having bounce back years and Erik Karlsson decided to become a nearly point per game defenseman! Long story somewhat less long, they made it into the playoffs and put up a good first round fight. Thhhhhheeeeeeee Eeeeeeeeeend…wait…no, now everyone is talking about how we should package any worth while picks or prospects for Rick Na$h or Zack Parisianakis, or Bobby Ryan OR WHO KNOWS WHAT SPICE!!

I think this brings us to an interesting crossroads. Do the Sens go the “Rundblad and a 2nd” route and expend some of their prospect wealth based purely on its raw potential in order to fill an organizational need in an awesome way? OR do they JUST WAIT AND ACTUALLY SEE IF ANY OF THESE GUYS ARE GOOD FOR FIVE SECONDS? ORRRRR …is anyone still reading at this point? I suppose I am looking at the screen right now so that counts, anyway…let us break this thing down a little…

Forwards:
As far as forwards go, I am for the latter. In my opinion, if there is a season for the Senators to augment organizational need with a big ticket FA, 2012-2013 Ain’t. It. Before cashing in a bunch of chips for a band new Bobby Ryan (or whoever just work with me) why not take it slow and see if we have a Bobby Ryan all our own in our system for ELC prices! I don’t think that it’s crazy considering the time the players currently have to develop and the quantity of promising young players in the system.

Against this type of thinking, a great example for the erring on the side of selling high while the selling might indeed be good would probably be Mark Stone. We nerds all know about the knocks on his skating ability but as of right now he is riding quite high on junior stats of just garish quantity, a very strong world junior campaign AND a gorgeous assist to Jason Spezza in his first NHL game WHICH WAS A PLAYOFF GAME. I see that if Stone cant translate his game to the NHL level that now would be the time to put him in a package to a team that might be tantalized by his accomplishments in exchange for a proven NHLer. Or if want to be like me (blech!) you can think about it this way: You know who else had the numbers and the junior accolades but was told he didn’t have the skating for the big leagues? Luc Robataille. Drafted in the 9th round after putting up 191 points in 63 games for the Hull Olympiques (WTFBTW). It comes down to, does Murray want to, admittedly, take a big gamble by holding on to him to see if a kid who has tons of potential works out OR does he think he has a Corey Locke on his hands and must make an executive decision right now to package him for Raffi Torres or Raffi Torres equivilant while he still can. With Milan Michalek and Jason Spezza under contract for the next few years I think it’s a better idea to potentially stink and find out if Mark Stone or (deep breath)…
Mika Zibanejad
Jakob Silvferberg
Stefan Noesen
Matt Puempel
Andre Petersson
Stephane DaCosta
Mike Hoffman
Shane Prince
Jean Gabriel Pageau
Jakub Culek
Or someone else out there in the weeds we haven’t even given much thought might be able to make the leap and work out as a high quality NHL star. Crazier shit has happened. Right, Sideshow Daniel Alfredsson?

I know some of you might be thinking some of the names on that list are a stretch. History indicates that, yes, most of those guys might not get more than a cup of coffee OR WHO KNOWS WHAT METAPHORICAL DRINK in the NHL. To beat a dead horse, ask Corey “One NHL assist since being drafted almost 10 years ago” Locke how that do.

What I’m saying is, coming off an albeit weirdly successful rebuild year that featured mature rookie and 7th round pick Colin Greening on the first line for the majority of the season, I think we could stand to go for some psychedelic line combos with a couple of our li’l stars and not some overpriced FA that, yes, would have fewer growing pains. For me, the smart strategy is to properly manage the absolute wealth of young CHEAP prospects at forward, see what works out and use the team’s cap space to pay some chugalug to fill other gaps that can’t be filled internally (defense).

HEYYYYYYYYYY Defense:
Following me so far? Great. Now, for a hypocriticalish turn on the question of defense. It looks like the Sens will lose both Phyllis Cuba and Matt Gilroy in the coming off season. Derp deeee derp dee deerrrp. Filip Kuba had a great bounce back season. Especially great if you don’t count the playoffs (note: They count!). True Kuba’s 20+ minutes a night and high plus rating won’t easily be replaced but we ARE still talking about replacing Filip Kuba here. Don’t even get me started on Matt Gilroy.

Sidenote: I’m thinking that Brian Lee must have been really upset with where his career was going and asked for a mercy trade. I thought he was playing quite well. He came into being the well rounded, mid minutes guy the team needed then poof out of town. In his place we got an offense based guy who couldn’t finish. So we got the old Brian Lee. Sweet trade off. We’ll miss you newer, better Brian Lee. Enjoy your new home and wear lots of sunscreen.

Right, so, I’m just going to put it out there and say the Sens are definitely resigning Matt Carkner; book it. If management were to bump him up by half a million dollars from his current salary, he will make as much as Bobby Benchwarmer. I’m not even counting him as a question mark.

No doubt the prospect pool is quite thin on the blue line at the moment. I know my proposed wait and see strategy for forwards would cause Craig Anderson to have a nervous breakdown if applied to the D squad. People really have their doubts about Borowiecki or Wiercioch  making the jump but I don’t think its that nuts to try one or split time among both of these guys in a protected role in place of Gilroy. Borocop had a great year down in bingo (made the AHL all star team as a shutdown defenseman? Pretty cool.) and Wiercioch has put up one less point as a Sen than Gilroy did (and in almost half the games to boot!). I’m saying, c’mere and check this out…also, you wanna buy some speakers?

Defense Corps (Not really actual proposed pairings…just…I don’t know just fucking read it fuck)

Karlsson – FA / Apu DeBeaumarché
Cowen – Phillips
Gonchar – Carkner
Borowieck/Wiercioch – Frozen Dinner

Of note: While typing this up I ACTUALLY FORGOT SERGEI GONCHAR PLAYED FOR OTTAWA. So, you can build three pairings with one FA signing or don’t sign anyone and give one or both of Borocop / Wiercop (?) a chance

Also of note: The names Borowiecki and Wiercioch are really annoying to type.

Yeah it wouldn’t be an all-world defense but in a rebuild I’d be fine with this. Our D kiiiiiind of stunk last year and really it’s just replacing Filip Kuba without giving up any picks or prospects. Maybe Murray would have to overpay for an FA but I’d be okay with that with the cap space Ottawa has. I do feel a bit lenient that if Murray could hit a homerun and snag Suter or Webber *hand wanking motion* sure give some stuff up but I say keep drafting D…it’s a rebuild people.

Goaltending:
I’ll keep this one uncharacteristically brief. The Ottawa Senators have 3 awesome, exciting goalies in the system, 3. 3. Has that ever happened in franchise history? Don’t give that away.

*Full disclosure I’ve never actually seen Ghost Rider:The Movie. I was turned away at the door for being too old to get in (see what I did there?). I did see the trailer which was like drinking a glass of boiling hot toilet water. I heard the sequel is actually much better (not joking I really have heard that**).

**Still not my cup of toilet water though

Goofy goalie market bodes well for Sens

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Stevie Y traded some significant assets for Nashville goalie prospect Anders Lindback the other day – not a bad return for Dave Poile, considering Lindback is a former 7th round pick. Lindback is a big guy (almost as big a Ben Bishop) and has played a combined 38 games in the NHL to date with good numbers, albeit in a terrific defensive system. And so the assumption is that he is ready to carry a team on his own.

This strikes me as flawed logic, but it’s about as conventional a concept as you’ll come across in today’s NHL. We’ve worked up a narrative: a club will have a veteran starter and a young backup. When the backup has a few good games – let’s say he hits 20 games played in a season – the analysts start talking about him being ready to be a starter, and how the club has a decision to make. This creates a little bit of drama to write around, an excuse to use the term “goalie controversy,” and subsequently a market for this new “starting” goaltender.

My fundamental skepticism is derived from the notion that playing a game every other week isn’t the same as playing 60+ games in what seems like the most psychologically demanding position in professional sports. There are plenty of examples of these young goalies being handed the keys to a franchise only to flounder.

Toronto traded for Calder-winning Andrew Raycroft, and immediately signed him; despite a bad season, he had hardware to his name, and was considered not only a solid prospect, but a goaltender young enough to provide stability in the position for a decade. After Raycroft bombed out, the club traded 1st and 2nd round picks to San Jose for Vesa Toskala, with hilarious results. Toskala’s numbers playing behind Nabokov in San Jose were very respectable, but he was considered sub-replacement level with the Leafs.

Mike Smith was traded from Dallas to Tampa Bay after being mentored by Marty Turco, and was a central asset in the package that brought Brad Richards to Dallas. Smith was treated as the solution to Tampa’s longstanding problems in net. (As Lindback is now treated.) The irony being that the most stability the franchise has enjoyed in years was due to a 42 year old Dwayne Roloson standing on his head. Mike Smith was unceremoniously released, and signed on the cheap in Phoenix.

Josh Harding in Minnesota has had trade rumors around him for years, but a few key injuries kept other teams from biting. Likewise, goalies are being mentioned in several of the potential packages for Rick Nash, and I pity to poor soul who gets traded to Columbus and billed as the team’s savior in exchange for their franchise player and captain. Columbus is likely to trade their best player for tomorrow’s Josh Harding.

And it’s not just the desperate clubs, without UFA options or prospects. Some go so far as to call Vancouver’s Cory Schneider not only a starting goaltender, but an “elite” “franchise” player. He played 33 games this season, a career high, with very good numbers. But how does he fare playing twice that, in a market that expects to win a Cup? You can say a lot about Luongo and that terrible contract, but he’s a starting goaltender, and probably top ten in the league. To me, it’s just nuts to think that he’ll be traded for next to nothing when Schneider seems as much as a risk and can probably yield you much more in a trade.

So what does all of this have to do with Ottawa? Well, the Sens are in the relatively novel position of having some prospect depth in net. The club has two exciting young netminders in Ben Bishop and Robin Lehner, and has stated that they intend to draft another goalie this year. And while I’m usually one to go with quantity when it comes to goaltenders, I have to wonder if the market for prospects is getting too good to pass up.

Let’s say this season gets off to a poor start, and Ottawa looks like it will miss the playoffs. (We’ll have plenty of season prediction posts in due time, but it should be evident if you’ve read my soapboxing that I think this is likely.) Bishop is right on the cusp of being considered one of those goaltending prospects just waiting to become a starter. With nothing to lose, the club could get him his experience and drive up his value. In the offseason next year, with Bishop still an RFA, any number of teams who feel they were one quality save away from being where they wanted to be gets a phone call. Could Murray turn the 2nd rounder he gave up for Bishop into something much better, or even make Bishop the cornerstone of some silly package for next year’s Rick Nash?

And then there’s Lehner, who is younger than Bishop but entered some elite company after winning playoff MVP on last season’s Calder Cup winning Binghamton team. I’d hate to see him go, but his stock is definitely on the rise.

Goaltending is so fickle that it’s hard to understand why GMs risk any amount of money or picks on supposed “sure things.” I’d feel about as comfortable heading into a season with a mix of three or four cheap veterans and prospects as I would with an anointed starter on a big ticket contract. But the offseason is here, and GMs are about to get nutty. Ottawa would do well to exploit the panic of others.

Draft strategy / two articles in two days?!

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That’s right! Two posts in two days! It can only mean one thing: my boss is away at conference.

Anyhoo, interesting article over here. I’m a sucker for anything that goes back and reads the tea leaves of former drafts for trends. This one points out that because the developmental timeline for most defencemen is longer than a forward, it’s more difficult to forecast their ceiling. Because it’s easier to whiff on taking them, it makes less sense to use a valuable first round pick on the back end. This is discussed in the context of the LA Kings, who used several first round picks on defencemen over their horribly long rebuild, and saw few of them become contributors. In the end they signed UFAs like Mitchell or Scuderi, or saw players drafted in later rounds like Voynov become bigger contributors. (Doughty is the elephant-sized exception to this rule.) The same can of course be said of goalies, though for some reason this is common knowledge while the defenceman principle has yet to shine through.

If you have a top five pick it rarely matters: you’re going to get a good player (though not necessarily an elite one). The point sort of being that there are two basic draft assumptions that mid-round drafters like Ottawa can live by:

  1. Never draft a goalie or defenceman in the first round; always a forward. First round picks are too valuable to risk on something so hard to predict.
  2. Draft more defencemen overall than forwards. Because of the difficulty in predicting who will succeed, you need to up your chances of success. Just use later picks.

The interesting thing this year is that so many defencemen are projected to go in the first round. A number of mock drafts have a couple of D going in the first few picks – Ryan Murray, Mathew Dumba, Morgan Rielly, maybe Jacob Trouba – but I really wouldn’t be surprised to see a few of these players slip down the board. Murray’s probably going to get picked early, but I can’t see too many teams leaving a Teuvo Teravainen or Sebastian Collberg on the board so they can draft one of many solid-looking D who are still years away from playing.

What this means for Ottawa, perhaps, is that they’ll have a slew of quality defencemen log jamming the mid-round and not a lot of quality forwards available. It puts the team in an interesting spot: do you go with common wisdom, trade down, and simply grab more defencemen later on? Or do you use your pick on one of these spurned defencemen and hope like hell you got the right one?

Sens TV set to winny Canadian Emmy, the “Jemmy” / We’re back on the internet

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In case you didn’t see it, Sens TV has a new edition of their behind-the-scenes look at scouting meetings. It has less intrigue than last year’s Senate Reform (TM Silversevens and janked by everyone else), where the Sens had several picks and needed to kick off their rebuild right. But I’m glad to say that the overturned milk crates with mics taped to them make their glorious return.

Also, check out the cabinets full of scotch in the background:

Is there a better job in the world? It’s like Mad Men, except nobody has a particularly impressive vocabulary. At one point one of the scouts says “warrior. battler. fighter.” or something to that effect, apparently not caring that these all mean the same things.

What I find most interesting is that these guys even spend time arguing over the semantics of whether a guy is going to be second line or third line. Why don’t they just have some formula mocked up wherein they plug in each scout’s assessment of each player’s tools, combine the values and weight them appropriately relative to 1) how much that scout saw of that prospect, and 2) the importance of each tool to the team’s overall system, and then have the formula spit out a value to rank each player. I don’t know, maybe they already do that, and this scrum is just the process of refining each scout’s individual ranking. And of course it’s a two minute thingy on the promotional website, here for our entertainment. But the process seems frustratingly inefficient. “Let’s argue about every single available player and then rank them.” It would be a fun job, but a silly process.

Interesting to note that the players available at 15th overall are probably third liners and defenseman who can move the puck but aren’t top pairing, and the scouts seem to bear this out. They reveal about everything they can without giving away who they prefer, but none of what’s being said is particularly electric. All this to say that the pick this year is ripe for a trade. Just as Murray traded the 16th overall pick for David Rundblad, perhaps you see management trade this year’s pick for a prospect a year ahead in their development. Or maybe you see it packaged with one or more of Ottawa’s prospects or roster players to make a big splash for a player like Rick Nash, though obviously I wouldn’t bet on that.

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It’s been a while since we updated. Sorry about that. I want to take this opportunity to express some admiration for both SilverSeven and The6thSens, who have been updating almost daily, somehow, despite the utter lack of anything to write about. And they’ve made it interesting, too. Those guys know what they’re doing. But back to us.

One thing I noted was this Puck Daddy piece on how the Wild are expected to outbid everyone for Zach Parise. We also know that Carolina is going to spend to the cap to try and bring him in. My thoughts on this are well documented.

I feel so, so sorry for the fans of franchises like Minnesota’s. If Brad Richards could get the kind of deal he got – he scored 66 points and was a -1 last season, and he made TWELVE MILLION DOLLARS on the first year of a nine year deal – then we can expect the bidding to get absolutely nutty for Parise, who is younger and has a higher ceiling. What do you think it gets up to? Could we see another deal of Kovalchuck-ian proportions, topping $100 million? If the league is open to deals that take the player to 42 years old, Parise could get 15 years.

And all this after the Los Angeles Kings win the Cup after years and years of patient building and drafting. Sure, they brought in expensive free agents, but they waited until their window of contention was open before they traded those prospects and spent that cash. Not only did they win, they could repeat with most of that lineup intact. Hell, they can even afford to go after Parise if they wanted to. Will the Wild and Hurricanes ever learn? Hopefully Sens brass take the lesson to heart.

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This comes up when you Google Image search “Jason Spezza Rick Nash.” So of course it needs to be included here.

Good post over on The 6th Sens about Murray kicking the tires on a Rick Nash trade. But with due respect to the boys’ analysis, of which the main points are sound—Nash’s peak production is likely behind him, he has a high salary, and the trade price is high—I wonder if we have a tendency to overvalue our prospects at this point.

After all, even if Nash “only” scores you 25-30 goals for the next few years and never breaks that 70 point barrier again, that’s a proven commodity on a team that needs it. Ottawa’s prospects on the other hand tend to be viewed in the context of their ceiling and under the assumption that they will come somewhere near it.

So even if the price is Mika Zibanejad, Mark Stone, a first round pick and a roster player, I have to ask: so what? Zibanejad has the makings of a very good two-way forward, but no one is suggesting he’ll have the game-breaking abilities of Nash. There are plenty of questions after a couple of concussions, and a season playing on the third line on the now-relegated Djurgårdens IF. There’s a lot of hope there, but he’s far from a sure thing.

Stone may never be an NHL player, lacking the pedigree and some say the skating skills. He looked good in game five against the Rangers (good enough to make his replacement with the jet-lagged Jakob Silfverberg questionable), and has had two monster seasons in the WHL, but he seems like an all-or-nothing prospect at this point. The types of goals he’s scoring in the World Juniors don’t seem as possible when defended against by, say, Chris Pronger. I hope I’m wrong, but again, not a sure thing.

The first round pick is a mid-rounder that I’m sure Columbus will completely fuck up. That’s a lottery ticket.

…and a roster player, which I suppose depends on who it is, but assuming it’s one of Ottawa’s many, many third liners – Nick Foligno, say – again, I don’t think you’re losing an impact player.

So that’s just a boatload of potential and Nick Foligno for Rick Nash, to play on a team that may be losing Daniel Alfredsson (and if they aren’t, will feature a 40-year-old Daniel Alfredsson). This is not even close to the rumored Dubinsky or Ryan McDonagh or Michael Del Zotto  / Chris Kreider / 1st round pick package that Columbus was angling for from New York.

It’s not a no-brainer, I admit. This deal, like any high profile one, would have its years when it makes Ottawa look stupid and years when it doesn’t. The Heatley trade looked awful for a couple of seasons and now is paying dividends. Additionally, Nash may not be interested in waiving his no trade clause to play on a different rebuilding club. And the catalyst for this reaction is a Bruce Garrioch article written in late-May, which is to say groundless.

But there’s probably something to be said for not overvaluing our prospect system too much, or not cashing in these prospects at a time when seemingly everyone thinks of them as sure bets.