Look, I like what I’ve seen of Kyle Turris. He has a great attitude, he looks like an amazing skater, and his shot is deadly. He hasn’t looked out of place and he isn’t even fully adjusted to Ottawa’s system yet. But as I mentioned in my diplomatically titled reaction to the trade: it’s not about Turris, a player with boatloads of potential. It’s about what might have been received in exchange for David Rundblad.

Rundblad was Ottawa’s key trading chip. A top flight prospect, highly considered by every analyst who’s bothered to make their thoughts on him public, who plays in the model of Erik Karlsson, who is currently thriving in Paul McLean’s system. Ottawa needed a second line center, there’s no doubt about that, and Bryan Murray cashed in his one golden chip. And now, two articles in one day on Puck Daddy: Anaheim is open for business, and Rick Nash would waive his no trade.

Now, I’m not saying that Ottawa should pursue point-per-game Ryan Getzlaf, 25 year old three-time 30+ goal scoring Bobby Ryan, reigning Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry, or RICK FRIGGING NASH…wait, why wouldn’t we pursue those types of players? MVPs, scoring leaders, team captains, Olympians…in the case of the Anaheim players, each making reasonable salaries. Not to get all hysterical, but we’re talking about some of the best players in the league being available in an era when superstars rarely make it to UFA market, and when your team rarely has the cap space to acquire them. The only other way you get players like this is if you draft and spend years developing them.

If they go on the block, even with Rundblad Ottawa might not have enough to trade, as each will command staggering returns. But the one thing I’m positive about is that without Rundblad, Ottawa is out of any race that develops, and for good.

Look down Ottawa’s lineup, and what do they have to offer in exchange for high end players? Karlsson is untouchable at this point. Spezza is looking great, but it would be one step forward one step back to trade a top line center, even for another top line center. Michalek is playing well, and is a top six player, but might not qualify as the centerpiece of a trade package as his comfort zone is probably as a 20-25 goal scorer. Gonchar and Kuba were both written off at the beginning of the season as deadline dumps. Cowen figures huge in the franchise’s future. There are plenty of promising prospects in the system, but it would hurt too much to lose the most valuable of those, like Zibanejad. The Puempels and Noesens of the world are lottery tickets at this point. And then you’ve got the team’s 1^st round pick, which could end up anywhere between top five and bottom ten at this point.

Oh, and I guess this team could trade Turris. Apparently he can get you a player as good as David Rundblad and a 2^nd round pick.

My point being that trading any of the team’s best prospects or core players for a superstar leaves an equally big hole in the lineup down the road. Rundblad was expendable and valuable. He might have been the starting point of any trade discussion. Now, if this team is a part of trade speculation, it will be considering far more painful amputations to get it done.

I know I’m in fantasy land here, but who would you prefer as a seconde line center: Kyle Turris or Ryan Getzlaf?

Interesting post by Tyler Dellow in which he speaks about the disproportionate percentage of league revenue that comes from Canadian hockey teams. This in itself is nothing new, though it contrasts rather inconveniently with local writers and business interests who paint a picture of Canadian clubs on the edge of profitability in order to ensure 1) monopolies in their markets, and 2) some degree of fear-driven support from fans.

Melnyk’s resorted to as much, playing up how much money the team has lost in recent years and making repeated reference to a break-even point of the second round of the playoffs. In the spreadsheet Dellow links to you’ll see that Ottawa actually does fall around the middle of the pack in per game ticket revenue in 2010-2011, during which they made $45.10MM. This is just over $1MM in revenue per home game, or roughly half what Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver make. Last season Ottawa spent to the cap and had a horrible year, so you can see why Melnyk feels justified in making his annual entreaty to fans, strategically just days before tickets go on sale, to support the team. On a superficial level–you buy tickets to see the team, and they spent more on salary and operating expenses than they made on tickets–the team did lose money.

But this doesn’t tell the whole story. The spreadsheet doesn’t contain revenue from television sales, merchandising, from other events at ScotiaBank Place from which Melnyk derives pure profit (assuming fixed costs are paid out of hockey revenues), or revenues shared by all teams from the sales of NHL memorabilia. That remains under wraps. This spreadsheet–leaked to Toronto Star, as it is every year–is unhelpful because it enables those with an interest in the status quo to make the case that NHL clubs lose money on a strictly ticket-for-services basis. It also allows the owners to plead poverty in the upcoming CBA negotiations, despite Bettman’s perpetual reports of rising profits. The in-out dynamic of most profit calculation is politically motiviated, and ignores many of the residual profits associated with team ownership.

But the spreadsheet does allow us to speculate about this year’s profitability. The team is spending roughly $14MM less on salary this year than last, and is vastly more competitive. The 20th Anniversary Season and All Star Game (which you can only attend by buying ticket packages) are also pushing the brand, and revenues. Revenue per ticket may not be up, but attendance is. (Ottawa is seventh in league attendance this season, up from 11th last season.) Television revenue, heritage jersey sales, and more may contribute to a larger take. Ottawa is going to have a big, though not huge, year.

I’m not trying to portray Melnyk negatively here. He spends to the cap on salaries when appropriate, and wants to bring a Cup to Ottawa. Sometimes he seems like the most delusional Sens homer of all. He just spent $5MM on a new scoreboard, albeit one he had little choice in acquiring as the new one was literally only quasi-operational. And the team continues to include a number of money saving ticket deals for fans, from throwing in two tickets with the purchase of a jersey, to food voucher specials, to family packs of tickets for a hundred bucks. I appreciate these things, knowing they would never, ever happen in a market like Toronto. It’s just as important to consider these things part of the big picture as it is to remember that billionaire franchise owners aren’t prone to running money losing ventures.

First off…how have we never found this image before?

We’re not quite there yet, but close enough to take stock of our Senators, catalogue some reactions, and wonder about the second half of the season. In themes!

What does this mean for the rebuild?

Obviously if the team is outperforming expectations, it’s neither rational nor fair to lament a lost rebuild. I’m looking at the Islanders or Blue Jackets and am not at all jealous of them for having a shot at Nail Yakupov so much as thinking that if he ends up there Yakupov will face some serious obstacles to having a fulfilling, competitive career. The Senators have both exciting prospects (Zibanejad, Noesen, Puempel, Lehner, Prince, Silfverberg), unexpectedly exciting ones (Stone, the mysterious defenceman in Binghamton that Murray alluded to being “almost ready”), some young players already performing beyond expectations (Karlsson, Cowen) and some X factors (DaCosta, Filatov). More than enough, one might think, to elevate what is already there to something more.

But there are still plenty of questions for a team that is, even with all pistons pumping, essentially a bubble team, and one with too many question marks to seriously trouble a team like the Bruins, Penguins, Flyers or Rangers. (I keep Florida off that list because, seriously, does anyone know what that team is about now? Would you be surprised if they went 21-21 for the rest of the season?) Players like Kuba and Alfredsson mean a lot for the team’s success so far this season, and the picks or prospects they might yield in a deadline trade won’t be useful for three or four seasons. A playoff round’s worth of ticket revenue might be worth the longterm depth of this team.

This seems evidenced by Murray’s decision to roll the dice on Kyle Turris, who has looked pumped to be playing in a hockey market, but who cost the team a lot in their best prospect and a pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole strategy of conservative building goes out the window if the team shows a strong, six-game loss in the first round—even if that means more prospects leaving town, or free agent acquisitions.

This is a fickle market, but I don’t think there’s ever been a time when the fan base was more amenable to doing what was necessary to build a contender. It’s easy to get swept up in exciting hockey, and I’m all for building a winning culture. But I don’t want to see this team mortgage depth for another year of “anything can happen in the playoffs” attitude.

Is the team playing above their heads?

With Karlsson leading defencemen in scoring, Spezza having flirted with top ten in scoring, and Michalek with the lead in goals, this team has players who, occasionally, are among the best in the league. Not to take anything away from their stellar play, but that’s not something you can count on season in and season out, and it’s one of the main reasons Ottawa is where they are in the standings. A couple of key injuries, and the Senators are in a world of trouble. Heading into the second half of the season, you might expect these players to tail off a bit. Or they might put together a full season, but it’s best to plan around a more modest forecast than to say “this is the new norm.” Especially with Daniel Alfredsson, their best all around player, considering retirement.

Are the Senators as bad as everyone thought they were at the beginning of the year? Of course not. We all predicted a bottom ten, maybe a bottom five finish, but anyone familiar with their lineup, and who didn’t become enamored with other teams’ acquisitions (Jeff Carter was going to turn the Blue Jackets into a scoring machine?) knew better than to pencil in the worst. But realistically, this is a team that will miss the playoffs. I hope they bust all of those paper bag predictions, but it looks the case.

Goaltending. Sigh.

The more things change…

No one could have predicted that after being traded for Craig Anderson, playing himself out of a qualifying offer from Colorado, and then being signed as a backup in St. Louis that Brian Elliott would be among the best tenders in the league. Similarly, no one could have thought after Anderson’s play down the stretch that he would be one of the weakest links on a defensively porous team. He may face more shots than all but two other teams it the league (Dallas and Minnie, for those keeping track, who have also succeeded by outscoring their opposition), but his numbers are atrocious. Alex Auld has not proven himself capable of stealing the starting job, and Robin Lehner still lacks a lot of maturity. One hopes that Anderson’s performance will trend upward in the second half of the season, but it’s hard to get excited about what we see there today. I hated the four year deal when it came down—and I’m an Anderson fan, I was when he was in Florida—so all we can do now is hope for the best.

What to do in the offseason?

Getting waaaaay ahead of myself here, but there are some key questions heading into 2012. Karlsson and Foligno are due new deals, and we know at least the first of those will involve an enormous pay raise. If they receive $7M and $3M per year respectively, the team allows Kuba, Carkner and Winchester to walk, Alfie stays for the last year of his deal, and all other RFAs remain at about the same pay, that’s about $18M in cap space. (Including a bunch of buyouts coming off the books.) That’s a lot of coin to play with, unless this team wants to maintain an internal cap. (Gotta pay for that scoreboard, if the heritage jersey sales haven’t already.) You have to wonder if the team will consider one of the premier free agents—does Ryan Suter make it to market? How about Zach Parise? Does the team go for a second tier player like Huselius, or does Murray reunite with Dustin Penner for a good ol’ fashioned reclamation project?

Answer: the rest of the Northeast Division (minus the Bruins)

The Senators, now in a golden age of Reasonable Expectations, can only compare positively to most of their Northeastern brethren.

As I’ve already written about on this blog, the Sabres stink. Not just as a matter of luck, but to their very core, as if to stink is to answer an existential quandary. It’s their identity. How else do you explain their blind faith in Lindy Ruff and Darcy Regier after so many years of mediocrity? The commitment to players like Derek Roy, Paul Gaustad and the disgusting Patrick Kaleta? Pegula might get around to firing Regier, which then makes the firing of Ruff possible, but the damage is already done. They’re only in the first year of those brutal Erhoff and Leino contracts. Imagine how much more awful this team will be with about $10M coming off the cap next year. I can’t wait for them to pay Alex Semin all that money, only to conclude once again that “it will all depend on Ryan Miller!”

In Toronto, Brian Burke needs about four assistant GMs so that he can continue to make asinine decisions based entirely on his all-important sense of integrity, whether it be not to avail himself of the mechanisms permitted under the CBA, or to impose restrictions observed by no other team, or to, ludicrously and hilariously, renew Ron Wilson’s contract for absolutely no discernible reason beyond their apparent friendship and shared values. For this he is the highest paid GM in the history of the sport. If they miss the playoffs again by a few points, their story will become the stuff of Greek tragedies.

And then, finally, there’s Montreal, AKA Bizarro Land, where some actually fantasize about bringing back the GM who traded for Gomez, and signed Camalleri and Gionta, and where it falls well within the confines of etiquette and reason to set police cars on fire no matter what the results of a game. Every decision they make this season results in a worse team than the day before. Two more months and they’ll be having discussions about buy-outs and blowing it up. Except that it’s Montreal, so they’ll talk about Rocket Richard and then also put in a bid for Alex Semin.

Toronto and Montreal are both subject to the same temporary insanity we’re accustomed to with all large market teams. Philadelphia and New York act no saner. Theirs are systems with tyrant leaders, whose intuition is treated as scripture, whose credibility in the old boys’ world of hockey is capital. That Buffalo now aspires to be one of this group is just amazing. Let them sit at the popular kids’ table and eat each other alive.

If it wasn’t for Boston, who right now are basically invincible, the Northeast would be the most schizophrenic, irrational, hopelessly lost in all of hockey. And as Ottawa enters the 2nd year of their accelerated rebuild, we should pause and give thanks. They’ll be right where they are now as our window of contention opens, living their perpetual crisis. I can’t wait for it.