Varada

Six wins in a row. The elephant in the room: are we being hopeless romantics to expect this team to make the playoffs this year? Is it just a case of early season wackiness, i.e. the team is only 2 games above .500 and is 4th in the conference? SUB-QUESTION: is this a repeat of the 2009-2010 season when the Sens went on an 11 game win streak and made the playoffs as the fifth seed, but if they’d played .500 hockey through that stretch they would have been a bubble team? Is this an anomalous period to be followed by a crushing return to mediocrity? SUB-QUESTION THE SECOND: Is it better to burn out or to fade away?
 
I’m tempted to take a more optimistic tone than most of the cautious (read: professional) Sens blogs, who are all predicting the wheels to suddenly and irrevocably come off the wagon at some point. The team is playing their system, and MacLean is rolling with whoever is giving him the most at the moment but without mixing up the lines, which is refreshing. Sharing the load with the vets seems to be working. (Remember when Clouston played Alfredsson 37 minutes a night?) Also, if Rundblad becomes as good as Karlsson is now, holy sheeeeeeeeeet will this team be fun for years.

Basically, I’m just getting a greater appreciation for the inherent funk-upness of the NHL itself, and its totally capricious, unfair, God’s Dice style chaos theory. You know how you’re playing the latest version of NHL for whatever your respective electronics totem is (now: with sneezing on the bench! *hands over $70*) and you sim a few games and think, “Pshaw, EA’s likelihood calculators are so skewed. Edmonton in first place? Toronto leading their division? Ottawa in 4th? Colorado and Dallas ruling the West? Detroit in a funk? Columbus finally spends more money and automatically becomes the worstest? Defending champs can’t string together two wins to save their life? EA has some work to do on their algorithms.” (Also, Vancouver always trades one of the Sedins.) Well, I’m starting to think that the kids they have working there for $12 an hour are probably just like “Fuck it.” Both because they make $12 an hour, and also because the NHL is like Road Warrior out there. Totally unpredictable. So we’re living in a zen moment right now, total kismet. I hope they have overstock of whatever incense MacLean is burning in the dressing room.

James

Happy Halloween everybody. Blessedish be the time of year when you get to go to a party that involves sweating profusely under a mask and/or uncomfortable clothing all night.

So let me start off by saying “Man, I love being a turtle!” as in, 6 game win streak really hitting the spot right now. A win streak that now includes beating the maple loaves at home in front a building half full of people who’s dad liked the maple leaves so they feel compelled to cheer for the team of another city and that hasn’t done anything since they had to slug it out through TWO whole rounds of playoffs nearly a half century ago in a league of six teams. What? “I put a lot of money up IM HATIN” – Ghostface Killah.
 
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAnyway, I will be my regular gutsy self and weigh both sides of the equation. New coach, new players, new town, new red, new army. Branding, RIGHT GUYS? I’m thinking maybe these guys are starting to gel a little bit out there. Sure there is still a core of vets from years past but over the course of a couple of months the Sens went from being one of the oldest teams in the NHL to one of the youngest. There’s not a ton of time between preseason and meaningful games to figure things out. It is quite possible that the players are starting to get used to each other out there.

That said, it is one month into the season and that there is some really sticky NHL math going on. I think it’s awesome that the Sens are 4th in the East and the Bruins are 15th or whatever but I mean on that same note, as great as King Karlsson is playing right now he has more assists than Henrik Sedin, Edmonton is no.1 in the West and Alex Ovechkin is sitting in 29th place in scoring on TSN’s Stats page. To use the NHL “term du jour that isnt ‘compete level’” the sample size is too small. I expect the league will have a different look after the All Star break. Wasn’t Philly in the basement around this time two seasons ago when they made the cup finals?

Now that I’ve covered my buns, I have to admit, there are a lot of things that this team is doing that make me think that they won’t finish dead last in the East as so many predicted.

– Goaltenders doing their jobs but not being relied on to put on constant high fiving Jesus in space 50+ save performances.
– Special teams are really clicking (great for killing off the way too many penalties Ottawa’s taking right now)
– Team is scoring goals which they weren’t supposed to and, moreover, all of those expected to put up points are putting up points. Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson, Gonchar….these are the guys who are supposed to be on the score sheet consistently and so far they are fulfilling their role.
– New players delivering: Colin Greening Colin Greening Colin Greening Colin Greening oOOooOOOOoo also did anyone else catch Cowen dumping people on their asses left and right against NY?
– Rundblad gaining confidence with each game
– Kuba not playing like he’s wearing a used diaper full of Indian food and burnt hair (sorry Anchorman was on last night)
– Gonchar gaining confidence with each game
– I’m not noticing Phillips which means he is playing well.
– Neil playing out of his mind
– Multiple come from behind wins
– Winning games on back to back nights
– Bouncing back from tough losses
– Shootout wins.
– Bonus point: I dont think the Sens have lost with Winchester in the line up…
 
Alright, so this is a sunny evaluation but when a team wins 6 games in a row…what can I say, things look sunny. There are still some kinks to work out like having to play on their heels a man short way too often but…. I outlined all those things above as i feel there are a lot of positives so far and I just don’t see them all as flukes. Players will heat up and cool off but all those shot blocks in the first period last night? That’s straight up discipline.

If this team does well, great. I am totally at ease with not having a powerhouse team during a rebuild but if the team wants to roll let them roll. Look at how many first round picks the team picked up this past draft; that’s a bit of a buffer if the Sens are out of the lottery zone. I am almost completely sure the Sens wont “steal” last place from its rightful owner Columbus. If the team wants to start winning now, they start winning now. The Sens got an amazing draft pick this year at no. 6 but have made serious moves outside the lottery the past few seasons. Karlsson 15th, Cowen 9th, Rundblad (technically 17th  acquired by a 16th) Lehner 46th and a bunch of unsigned College boys. Not to mention former no. 6 Filatov aching to prove himself worthy of more than 5 mins of ice time. As I’ve said before, I want a Ryan Ted Nugent-Sir Anthony Hopkins too but if the team decides to start kicking ass then kick away. If things go south then we are who we thought we were and we get another high pick. As long as the hockey remains as entertaining as it has been I could go either way. I think yes, this is the whacky world of the NHL, of course it’s possible that the Sens make the playoffs. If they do I will see you and the Sensquatch in the back of the limo I just bought in cash from the Chinese mafia. If not I wont be mad at wherever they finish as long as they’re trying. Keep fit and have fun.

With the Sens suddenly not stinking anymore, you’re easily forgiven for neglecting the reason 29 fan bases follow hockey: thinking of next season. (Especially when “next year” doesn’t necessarily mean daydreaming about Yakupov.) The team’s competitive for now, and winning in an entertaining fashion. Obviously I’m making all sorts of trips to the Wine Rack for my daily dose of Iniskillen Iced Wine and totally paying for my Senators Sportsnet Digipak Bonus (Not Free) Content legally.

But here’s the thing: if the team ends up more competitive than we thought it would be (whoa whoa WHOA, I just said “more competitive”…not “competitive”), and they already have all this cap space, there are some exciting scenarios for next season.

It’s Friday so obviously I’m on Cap Geek. And I notice, first, that the team has about $12,500,000 in cap space already, which is, you know, sort of crazy. (Also crazy: Dallas is competitive with the lowest payroll in the league. Columbus has the fourth highest eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeshsorryguys.)

But then, check it out: there’s just under $2,500,000 coming off the books just in buy-outs. Cheechoo. Emery. Alfredsson. (So glad we bought out that bum.) That’s a whole, real, corporeal player in exchange for nebulous bills. Or two Konopkas.

I sent out a Tweet asking if anyone would consider re-signing Kuba considering his strong play this season, and to sweeten the deal I posited a scenario in which he accepts less money and years. Say…about the $2.5M we just saved on buyouts. The completely scientific results of that Twitter poll (which, by the way…. @wtyky) indicated that 175% of respondents would not re-sign him. (Margin of error of + / – 200%) Hm. Well then. I guess that’s another $3,700,000 in space.

Then you’ve got Carkner, Winchester, Lee and Konopka who, for the sake of argument, let’s say aren’t coming back. Another cool $3,025,000.

Murray has got to re-sign Karlsson. (FOR LIFE, BTW.) That’s a subject for another many dozens and hundreds of posts. (If there’s anything I learned from being notified 10,000 times that that Mika Zibanejad had been sent back to the SEL, it’s that we’re all on the same page when it comes to discussion topics.) But let’s just split the difference between the low and high ends of potential salary and say he makes $4,000,000 a year. We’ll say Da Costa, Regin, and Foligno come back for about the same amount. We’ll also assume Papa Alfie stays in house, and lets the Sun columnists tell him who should live in his basement for one more year. We’ll also assume a few new youngins come into the fold. Let’s also assume we remember Filatov is alive.

That gives this team around $18,000,000 in cap space. Or over a quarter of the entire cap. Which is absolutely nutty. $2M more cap space than the lowest payrolled team in the league right now.

My point being: 

1. We should probably seriously look at re-signing Kuba, especially if he’ll take a paycut and sign for a year or two without a No Trade Clause. I know he’s frustrating. I’ve been right there with you, throwing my chicken wings into a child’s face with frustration. But he can play 20+ minutes a night, and this is a young team, and c’mon guys. Just c’mon. He’s not that expensive. Maybe we can teach him to throw his size around! Just kidding. But think about where you’re gonna put your Kuba hate if he finishes the season with 35 points and a plus rating.
2. There are some seriously exciting players up as UFAs. Not a ton of them, and of course Zach Parise AND Alex Semin will somehow both end up on the Rangers after they bury Brad Richards in the Latvian Mediocre Excellence Brigade. But there’s those two, Ryan Suter, Willie Mitchell, Mikhail Grabovski, and of course a whole slew of Misfit Toys willing to take on cheap contracts just because no one else wants them (helloooooo Lee Stepniak). Murray might actually be in the enviable position, now known as The Tallon, of having to spend to get to the cap floor. This team can have a major shot in the arm next year, and so long as Murray signs players to short contracts to keep room for the necessary re-signings, this team’s in great shape. 
3.  Yakupov-Schmakupov.
4. This is a chance for Melnyk to re-coup some losses. (Which, you know, I’m not entirely convinced about.) This is also a chance for the team to reinvest. Scoreboard. Cheaper concessions. More ticket deals. Let’s get a foam finger on all of those kids’ hands. (Though thanks for the pin during the home opener, that was nice.)

As everyone in the NHL knows and is currently losing sleep over I’m sure, Ottawa Senators sixth overall pick Mika Zibanejad will play his ninth NHL game tonight. Which means that if he plays any more games the first year of his entry-level contract kicks in, regardless of how many more games he plays. Bryan Murray, looking at his deep, deep stable of 2nd line centers (uhh…) must now decide what is best for the 18 year old. Send him back to the Swedish Elite League (“It’s a league of MEN.”) or commit him to a season’s worth of “development”, AKA punishment in the NHL.

James

What do you think is best for Zibanejad? SEL or NHL? I know youre very strongly against not kicking in ELCs til the last minute.

I feel like I couldn’t be any more on the fence about it. Maybe with a slight edge toward returning him.  I really wish he could just be sent down to Binghamton. He’s the new Jared Cowen!

Varada

 I think he should go to the SEL this year. For me the AHL route is a perfect middle road, if only it were possible. He can be called up easily, still gets used to the smaller ice surface and North American style game, etc. That’s the debate with Rundblad. But my understanding is that both have options in their contracts to return to Sweden if they want, and I can understand why they would. You have a choice of returning to your home country, living with your family, and being a star in a league where you know exactly what to expect. Or you can ride the bus all over the US.
 
But if it’s between staying and going, I think he should go for all the common reasons. Mostly though it’s just because 18 is yoooooooooung. I see what Atlanta did with their prospects in consistently playing them early, and it’s never fast-tracked a player’s development.

James

You know what, I swayed more to the send him back side. I sometimes think back to how his SEL number of games-played is somewhere in the 20s, and I think their season is a little over 50 games. It says a lot about his pedigree: just broke in from the Swedish Juniors and caught a bunch of scouts’ attention. I think it would be extra exciting to see him go back and enjoy a Rundbladian domination of the league. Though that’s asking a lot, it did make Rundblad seem all the more of a sure NHLer and SEL graduate when he came over this year. Same goes for Jared Cowen going back the WHL and absolutely hurting that league’s feelings.

Even though winning two games has been a gas to watch (except for like 53 minutes of that CLB game) it’s still a rebuild year and I think Ziba is more of a sure-thing prospect, like Rundblad, where there’s little question he’ll make the NHL one day. With so many prospects in the mix, I’d actually prefer to see DaCosta get a bit more of a look. He seems more the wild card. Maybe even a couple of games for Corey “AHL Hall of Fame” Locke. That and I guess it makes more room Nikita Filatov which, for me: give the kid the full try out. Rebuild year, last year on his ELC, might as well see what he can do, warts and all. Better than having Zbad crammed in there potentially playing wing (like what’s now happening).

Interesting to see The Dogman getting called up ahead of Filatov. I like me some dogman though.

Varada

Yeah, Filatov must be secretly seething. D-Man gets his callup as he wanted to sign in Latvia or some shit and re-signed in Ottawa (apparently) after a promise he’d get a shot in the NHL, so this is probably it. Eventually Filatov though – he’s gonna get his Bobby Butler treatment. “You’re what we’ve got! Top six minutes for the last 30 games of the season!” (*hides under blankets.*) 
 
I mean, don’t get me wrong about Zibanejad: I’d like to him to stay for entertainment value. I’d like to see him develop. I really wanna see him get that first goal, and he was awesome in pre-season. (What a tease preseason is, huh.) Also we need him for depth purposes, as I’ve already said a billion times that I expect like 40% of our lineup to be hurt by mid-season. But you know, if we need to call up someone I’m totally cool with like, Mark Parrish, he of 10 seasons in the NHL and currently with Bingamton, coming up for a few games.

James

I know. I look at Parrish as a very, very smart signing by the Murrays. The David Hale of forwards.

Yeah, I’m not losing sleep over the whole Filatov thing. Still so much season to go and you have to think he’s going to get a pretty extensive shot again with his contract expiring.

Exeunt (weigh in in the comments section)