Author Archives: Varada

Reader Poll: Would you rather win all the stuff or maybe win the stuff later?

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Just a quick one, in response to today’s (typically) awesome post by Backhand Shelf’s Jo Innes regarding Karlsson’s early return from surgery on his achilles tendon. The article is great and you should read it, but the key takeaway for me was:

“A return to full competition shouldn’t be contemplated until there’s no pain at full exertion, and comparable strength to the uninjured limb. While Karlsson may be at that point, he may also be doing what many, many NHL players have done before him and putting his long term well-being on the line for a shot at the playoffs.”

Obviously we don’t know how Karlsson feels, and I think we’re all prepared to assume that Senators’ management is being as careful as possible with its franchise defenseman, but I thought I would put it to you, the pack of escaped super apes who usually read this blog and will soon overrun our public infrastructure:

Round()table of Death: Motherfucking KARLSSON edition

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bread_jesus_karlsson

Varada

Okay, first thing’s first: we know this is a miraculous feat of healing for Erik Karlsson, and that we should obviously worship him and purchase an(other) Erik Karlsson jersey as soon as possible, but let’s take a solid minute to recognize the brilliant work of Senators team doctor, Dr. Chow, who performed the surgery on Karlsson’s achilles.

I work in health care policy, and so I know how little we celebrate the successes of health care providers; these days we talk more frequently how much they cost and what happens when they fuck up. But Dr. Chow clearly deserves our gratitude and applause here. Go ahead. Stand up from your desk and applaud. I’ll wait.

(*beat*)

Dr. Chow is one of Canada’s top orthopaedic surgeons, and one you might be familiar with from his own harrowing survival story. He’s already one of the most respected practitioners in his field, but that success hasn’t been, y’know, real success until now, as we bestow upon him The Welcome To Your Karlsson Years Prize for Excellence in the Field of Orthopaedic Surgery (Sports and Exercise, Heel Related). 

Congratulations, Dr. Chow! If Ottawa makes it out of the first round thanks to Karlsson’s contributions, I’m going to make sure I refer all of my friends to you, no matter how small or trivial their symptoms!

Now, as for Karlsson: what do we expect from him? Well, considering weexpected him to regress a little from his Norris-winning season and he was leading the league in shots and defensemen in points when he was hurt, and weexpected six freaking months of rehab and he did it in two, I can say you should take your expectations and perhaps…how do I say this diplomatically…shove them as far up your ass as you can?

In the last month or so we’ve gone from “Karlsson is still hanging around the rink, encouraging his teammates – what a guy!” to “Holy shit, Karlsson is skating” to “KARLSSON IS SKATING IN FULL EQUIPMENT” to “Karlsson…is leading stretches…in practice (hyperventilating)…and he’s not wearing a no contact jersey…(throws up all over self).”

Which is to say, I expect that he will single-handedly lead the Senators to the Cup while dabbling in research that leads to a cure for Type 2 diabetes. At the very least he will clearly play his ass off, and even if he’s not 100% at least he’s an upgrade on, you know, Benoit or Gryba or whoever whose name I just forgot because OH MY GOD IMAGINE IF KARLSSON ELIMINATES THE PENGUINS FROM THE POST-SEASON.

James

Varada, ladies and gentlemen. Please picture me as Mr. James Carville at the 1:45 mark

Okay, I must admit I do have SOME response. I believe it was Franklin Delano Zizek who said, “Who shall inherit the blogs? The insufferable.”

🙂

One would think I would be pretty used to ‘injury watch’ what with being a fan of Jason “Two 80+ game seasons in 9 years” Spezza and having sat through Pascal “The Angel of Death” LeClaire for however long that was. Heck, remember when there was all that hoopla (copyright) about Daniel Alfredsson being too soft to be team captain because of his injury problems? LOL, I’m just going to blindly blame the Ottawa Sun for starting that whole thing.

Anyway, like Cowen before him, with Karlsson’s progress I find myself “mother dropping her only child off at a paintball themed birthday party” level cautious about my beautiful, beautiful babies. My expectations for Cowen in his return in Carolina, as outlined in my JDP, were: Take a glorified twirl on the ice, make sure everything feels normal and play a Borowieckian 12 minutes without getting hurt. What happens? This MF lays a hit that ends Jeff Skinner’s season, holds it down in 2 fights and plays great in the nearly 20 minutes that he clocks. Okay…so…I don’t know anything about anything (THANKS FOR READING, MOM!)

When it comes to Karlsson…I guess as you outlined above all bets are off. I feel like Ottawa making the post season and stretching the series out to seven games or even making the second round THEN you see Erik Karlsson is borderline unrealistic to me. Maybe it’s the fact that a friend of mine tore his Achilles playing soccer in JANUARY and even with regular rehab his foot flops around like a fish that Jessie Winchester is taking a #sicinstagram of in his boat somewhere in Muskoka. Now, does my friend have some of rehabilitation specialists working with him on a daily basis? Of course not he’s a normal person. Erik Karlsson is clearly a not that so I’m at a loss as to what to expect. If he came back Monday and scored a million frigging goals all over Matt Cooke’s stupid FACE I wouldn’t put it past him. If Ottawa had to run through the playoffs until June to get one game out of him that would be the goodest of problemz. If he’s not 100% and still plays I don’t know if the sky is necessarily falling. Teemu S. said he came back early and he didn’t die. I’m no Dr. Chow in terms of expertise or handsomeness, but something tells me that the fact that his Achilles injury was a laceration from a skate blade and not a 100% tear from a strain it was a bit easier to repair. Well, that and EK’s obviously ridiculous commitment to his rehab exercises.

You had me at “expected to make a complete recovery” …actually I’m only happy if he comes back tomorrow and in his first game back overtakes PK Subban for the scoring lead among defenders and forces the NHL to melt down the Masterton and Norris trophies and mold them into the 5 HOUR ENERGY XXXTREME RECOVERAWESOME DOT COM GO DADDDY AWARD 

Grab Bag Episode 3: The Quickening

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So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

Playoff Seeding

With every game that Washington wins, that magical 6-3 matchup is starting to look less and less appealing. I was all for playing the Southeast Division “Champs” when that meant playing the Winnipeg Jets. But Adam Oates’ system finally seems to have clicked with these players, and the Caps are looking unbeatable. Washington is 9-0-1 in their last 10; everyone is healthy; and it doesn’t need saying since everyone is saying it, but Ovechkin is looking like one of the best players in the world again.

At least Ottawa gets to play the Caps twice in their last seven games of the season. This should give everyone a good idea of how they line up against one another. I can imagine the scrappy Sens giving a finesse team like the Caps fits around their own net, which would be a welcome change given the Senators’ playoff history. But I never thought I would say this: as the Caps keep pumping and the Habs start falling apart, that 7-2 matchup against the suddenly terrible Carey Price and the Habs’ porous defense is starting to look good. Although, at the rate they’re playing, they won’t hold down the number two seed for too long. It’ll be Boston.

Erik Karlsson’s Unearthly Return

The night following Erik Karlsson’s gruesome injury, I wrote a tearful entry about how devastating it was to this team—not just to their playoff chances, and not just to the prospect of watching fun hockey, but to the notion that a unique player may not ever be the same. That was a worst-case scenario, to be sure, but the number of people in Ottawa reading about Achilles lacerations that week must have been astounding, and we all read the same things—four-six months recovery, then hardcore rehab; the whole season was lost, and the offseason, and maybe even the start of next season.

Now, just two months later, Karlsson is skating with full gear on, and Bryan Murray is saying in interviews that he could be back in time for the playoffs – which are about a half-dozen games away. That’s just unreal.

I don’t have a unique perspective on this one, except to say how awesome it is, and how special Karlsson’s work ethic (and healing power) has to be for this to be true. There are always a number of worthy candidates for the Masterton trophy (awarded to the player who best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance) – Josh Harding comes to mind – but you have to think Karlsson will be on the shortlist this year if he comes back.

2014 Outdoor Game

Ottawa gets an outdoor game against Vancouver, and I find myself wondering how all of these relatively warm weather locales are going to host outdoor winter games. I lived in Vancouver for a while; I remember the winters being very wet and maybe reaching -5C. Apparently this is a small fish problem because there’s also going to be an outdoor game in Los Angeles? Am I missing something here? Has outdoor water-freezing technology taken leaps and bounds in the last couple of years?

My second question is immediately and most importantly: does Ottawa dig out the barber pole jerseys for this game? Between those and the classically ugly Canucks jerseys of yesteryear, we could have a Make Your Eyeballs Bleed Matchup

0114-bng-vintage

tiger

Roundtable of Death: The Passion of the Distaste for Peter Regin

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tod

James

So after Tuesday’s undeserved and tide-turning face off penalty (ITS A GREAT PENALTY!!!) we can officially conclude that Peter Regin is straight up bad luck at this point, right? …Let’s retire the number 13 while we’re at it.

Imagine you’re Jim O’Brien, getting scratched game after game for a guy who has 3 assists on the year. Don’t get me wrong: despite a strong start, JOB isn’t exactly burning down the house with his 6 points and minus three, but what the hell is up with a supposed “skill guy” like Regin who hasn’t put up a point in weeks not getting an extended stay in the press box?
The nail in the coffin for me here is fucking MATT KASSIAN has more goals than him. The debate whether Regin is a top six *puts on giant novelty Mickey Mouse glove and does hand wanking motion* or a bottom six player is now over. 3 points and a minus rating with two and a half weeks left in the season shows you’re barely an NHL player. I know his stock was high as recently as the beginning of last season, and hey he looked good early on, but for me, when he went that one season with only 3 goals in 55 games he became more or less expendable. You can just go out on the free market and buy better production than that on the cheap. Or even better, if you’re the Ottawa Senators you’re in the position to just cut him loose and give one of your many depth players a try. Stephane DaCosta came up and put up a goal and an assist in less than 10 games. Is he NHL ready? I don’t know but again the greater question is, is Regin at this point? Could a Hugh Jessiman or Mark Stone not do what Regin is doing?
People didn’t give a FUCK when Bobby Butler was waived, or to a lesser extent when Foligno was traded. Foligno could hit hard, play centetr or wing, and he put up nearly 50 points last year! Butler spent much of last year in the box and still put up 6 goals and 10 assists, was a +8 and people were ready to burn that guy’s house down. What I’m saying is, Ottawa has parted ways with more productive players (and quicker) for less.
I wonder what the strategy is here? Is MacLean trying to light a serious fire under O’Brien until he gets to that Reginesque point of charging into his office and demanding to play? When Regin did it it was awesome. Full credit he was on fire in that game against Montreal and pretty much won it for Ottawa. The thing is it seems he can’t do that for more than one game in a row. Remember when Bobby Butler did the same thing vs. Calgary last year? Neither do I!
At 26 Peter Regin is still quite young and YES HE WAS GREAT IN THAT ONE PLAYOFF SERIES but that was in 2010. With the injuries this team has suffered this season I could see why Ottawa might want to keep the waivers to a minimum, but why he was kept over Daugavins is baffling to me. At least Dogman was durable. And that’s the other thing: If you like me believe Regin is a bottom six player at best, watching him get knocked about like a pinata game after game is not exactly endearing for a PK lunch pail guy. O’Brien has the wheels, a degree of touch and PK skills like Regin but with more durability and a modicum of toughness. As a fan, I expect to see JOB in against Philly on Thursday.
Much like Butler before him, I hope Regin can turn it around and wish him success but as per my feelings toward The Ballad of Bobby B last year, I’d much rather see him try to find his way somewhere else.
Varada
It seems to be like there are at least two tiers of expectations against which to assess Peter Regin’s putrid, awful, unwatchable season. The first expectation is that he’s a cheap depth guy, best suited to playing on the 3rd or 4th line, who won’t lose you hockey games. If that’s the case I can’t really disagree, though like you say James: it’s not like those guys aren’t plentiful in the NHL. Ottawa can swing a little bit more for the fences with its depth guys. It’s not like Regin is tough, agitates, or has much offensive upside these days.
The second set of expectations, and easiest to consider a failure, is that Regin is a number 1-2 centerman with puck possession skills ideal for Paul MacLean’s system. This has been pretty thoroughly disproved at this point.
Sometimes it was Regin starting the game as the team’s number one center when Spezza was hurt only to find himself on the fourth line so fast he would get whiplash (in favor of Smith for chrissake). Sometimes he’d be a supplementary winger. In any case, there’s something far more disturbing than his never becoming a top six player (which, ok let’s admit, is hard to do).
Check out these Relative Corsi ratings:

2008-2009 GP 11 RC 13.3
2009-2010 GP 75 RC 18.9
2010-2011 GP 55 RC 8.4
2011-2012 GP 10 RC 0.8
2012-2013 GP 27 RC -0.7
Now, that’s not all that bad – even the negative rating is near even, which means Regin is usually pushing the puck in the right direction, even playing with terrible, terrible linemates, and though never getting much in the way of point production. What’s more disturbing is the trend. That’s a good body of work right there, enough that sample size starts to get mitigated a little bit. As Regin has struggled through injuries, his effectiveness has seemed to slip, and is heading steadily southward. You might assume it’s his natural progression down the lineup into a marginal role, and his Time on Ice p/ 60 minutes has decreased, but only from between 11-12 minutes a night to about nine minutes this year. When he was having those great Corsi seasons, he was only enjoying two more minutes a night, at most. He also only started in the offensive zone about 7% more of the time.
In other words: not that much has changed about how Regin is being played, but he’s still getting worse. He’s not as terrible as I first thought, but he’s experiencing his worst season as a professional, and he’s trending downward. Why take a risk on that sort of player when you’re organization is stuffed with depth guys?
Of course there’s also his point production, which with his number of games played puts him in the arena of Tim Jackman, Tim Brent, and Ryan Reaves. Some of those guys only play about six minutes a night. Clearly this is disappointing for anyone expecting him to be 20 goal guy (<– actual prediction!)
It’s not that he’s a terrible fourth liner. It’s just that we don’t want him to be a fourth liner. At 26 he’s in what’s supposed to be his prime. He might rebound, sure, and his underlying numbers are enough that you can see why management would spend only $800k to bring him back for a year. But the years of monster Corsi possession now seem to be behind him.
I’d hate to see him rebound elsewhere. On the other hand, it just seems like a warm body in the lineup right now. I’d rather give that ice time to Mark Stone, Shane Prince, or Mike Hoffman and let them develop in the NHL.

Possible New Team Names To Use During the Losing Streak

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I wish.


I wish.

  • The Frustrated Minors
  • The Frustrated Miners
  • The Sergei Gonchar’s Third Period Penalty Box Naps
  • The SportsClubStats “How Do Probabilities Work?” Confused Faces
  • The Ben Bishop Headbutts
  • The Craig Anderson Buttheads
  • The Brian Elliotts
  • The Antoine Vermette Just Cant Finish Singers
  • The High and Wides
  • The Home Stretch Gang
  • The Cardiac Kids (Not So Fun Edition) 
  • The New New Edition
  • The Shitty Beatles 
  • The Regular Beatles
  • The Erik Karlsson Skating Videos
  • The Remember the First Couple of Weeks of This Seasons
  • The Next Years
  • The OHH AHH Silfvermedals
  • The Penalty Killz
  • The This Is How It Feels To Be Spoiled By Inspired Play During a Rebuild and then a Rash of Long Term Injuries To Several Star Players
  • The David Rundblads
  • The Whats the Opposite of Peskys
  • The Sixth Lowest Payroll in the NHL, Less Than Columbus, Florida, and Winnipegs
  • The First Rounder for Chris Campoli, Who By The Way is Available Right Now for Nothings
  • The Conditional Seventh Round Picks
  • Peter Regin
  • The They Can Still Conceivably Do Its

Stop toying with me – what’s it going to take to get us to the finish line?

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Weird times in Sens-land. Our spirits are crushed one night, and the next night we get these little sprigs of hope pushing up through the concrete.

At first it was that video of Jared Cowen practicing and throwing his weight around in the process. (Note to Cowen: maybe don’t nail one of our most consistent two-way players in practice, ok?) Could we see him return sooner rather than later? Then there was today’s video of Erik Karlsson skating oh-so smoothly around. Robot ankles from Sweden? He won’t be back, we know, but maybe…HE’LL BE BACK?

(No, he wont…unless he will be.)

[He won’t.]

Spezza was last seen lifting groceries into the back of his Honda Element in a FoodBasics parking lot, causing everyone to scream in protest. What’s Turris going on now, eight games without a goal?

But anyways, is the season dropping out from under us or what? Despite losing four in a row, including games against the Buffalo Fucking Sabres and Florida Fucking Panthers, Sportsclubstats (daily viewing this time of year) has Ottawa’s post-season chances only dipping 3.2% to 94%. Not quite the absolute certainty of the 98%+ chances we’ve been enjoying lately, but all the same: if the ship isn’t turned around soon we’re going to start seeing those scary 10% drops in probability happening really, really soon.

Tampa is up next, and they’re no pushover. They’ll have a motivated goalie, all of their leading scorers, plenty of grit, and their defense…well, their defense sucks, but so does the Florida Fucking Panthers’ and they just beat us.

There’s only ten games left in the Senators’ season, and they need to get at least 9 out of a possible 20 points before their chances of making the playoffs drop from the mid-90% range into the 80% range.

In that span they play, in order: Tampa, Philly, New Jersey, Boston, Carolina, Washington, the Leafs, Pens, Washington again, and Philly again. Five games at home, five on the road.

First of all: thank Christ they only play Boston once. That will be a loss. They play the Leafs on a Saturday night at home, so you know that will be a loss too. Everyone else, including the Pens if they still don’t have Crosby, are beatable, but now all bets are off. Throwing away points against the Buffalos and Panthers of the world means the team has to beat decent spoilers like Tampa, Washington, or Philly. If you figure the team loses at least a couple of those games on the road (where Ottawa stinks), it means having to take at least the home games against the Caps and Flyers.

Ottawa can do it. They’ve done it against all odds this season. But the road to the end of the season is going to be a bumpy one.

A good start might be Anderson shaking off the rust (welcome back Andy now RETURN TO VEZINA FORM IMMEDIATELY); Lehner getting angry again even though he doesn’t have to play third fiddle to Bishop (“paging Lehner’s father issues” [Alfredsson’s father issues might do in a pinch]); Turris waking up Home Alone style to find the team left on the road trip without him and then catching up with them in Tampa; finding the ghost of Zach Smith’s scoring touch; and finally, we could stop playing Peter Regin and Matt Kassian under any circumstances whatsoever.

Or, in a happy reversal of fortune…maybe all of the above? If not, we might find ourselves clinging to an improbable Karlsson return to save our season. I’ve been through this with Hasek; I’d prefer if the team just stopped losing completely winnable games.

It was the best of times…it was the BLURST of times???

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c4s_twocents020513_10245045_8col

Allllllllright, Ottawa traded Ben Bishop, he of genial giantism and excellent goaltending, and who was previously acquired for a 2nd round pick, for Cory Conacher and a 4th round pick. I will take this over the usual “2nd round pick for Andy Sutton” ilk any day of the week.

Reaction to this one is a bit of a pendulum: early on it was all “Tampa Bay GM Steve”…Yzerman? Whyzerman? Never heard of him…”gave up way too much for the ephemeral and nebulous experience that is NHL goaltending” or “CONACHER AWESOME.” Bishop could be a starter, or he could never play again. Keep in mind that this is the man who gave up two 2nd round picks and a third round pick for Anders Lindback, who had also never been a starter. (Fun Fact: If one sat on the other’s shoulders under a giant trenchcoat, the combined Lindback / Bishop freak would be fourteen feet tall and three thousand pounds.)

Now the pendulum is swinging back the other way: did Conacher benefit from playing with a generational talent in Stamkos? Are his possession stats and zone starts a cause for concern? (Yes.) Is he having an outlier season for an undrafted and tiny forward? Did we actually get hosed? Tampa paid nothing for Conacher and got a good season out of a rookie. And they parlayed that into a guy who could end up their starting goaltender, a guy who has outright won games for Ottawa that Ottawa had no right winning.

This is what swinging for the fences looks like in Ottawa. Most teams throw a huge number of years and money at a player with only a year or two left in their prime. Ottawa trades what amounts to a 2nd round pick for one of the best rookies of the year and hopes it’s not a fluke. I don’t really mind this when you consider that it fits the long term plans of the club, the prospect cupboard is full, and Murray basically had to trade Bishop anyway. What was he going to do–pay him RFA money to maybe not play at all? It’s a risk, sure, especially when you consider that Bishop could have been the cornerstone in any number of bigger trades, but it could have also been WAY worse. Ottawa held on to their 1st round pick; they kept all of their premier prospects; and they didn’t trade for Marian Gaborik.

The problem with Conacher is that he’s here to score, and score only. He can’t be conveniently demoted down the lineup and play a checking role if his scoring touch goes cold . He needs to finish, and finish consistently. His shooting percentage this season is a ridiculous 17% (which is actually less than his shooting percentage last year in the AHL, if you can believe that), but you can’t help but wonder if we’re on a train to regression town.

Whatever. It’s a risk, but I’d much rather risk a goalie for a forward than the other way around. Goaltending is a mystery wrapped in a pastry gone cold. (Think about it.) Remember Vermette for Leclaire? I wish Bishop all the best; he seemed like a really great team guy and is in his prime. He gets to play with some big names in Tampa.

RELEASE THE LEHNER.

Bonus Grab Bag: Trade Deadline Edition; Volume 1, Issue 2: “The Deadening (A Rope of Sand)”

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So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

Playoff Chances and First Round Match-ups

Sure, that 4-0 beating laid on us by the Leafs over the weekend smarted. No, it more than smarted; it was humiliating the way only the Leafs can humiliate the Sens when playing a nationally televised game on a Saturday night. But hey, it was Hockey Night in Canada, and I’d bet the Sens’ overall record on Saturday night games against the Leafs is desperately low. ANYWAY, take solace: all of this could end up working in Ottawa’s favor.

As of today, Boston has a 53% chance of starting the playoffs as the fourth seed, though they also have a 30% chance of overtaking Montreal for the division lead. Ottawa is pretty much split, with a 43% chance of starting the season as the fifth seed and a 41% chance of starting as the sixth seed. They share this scenario with the Leafs (42% fifth seed, 43% sixth seed). And who’s that locked down in the weird, vortex-y third seed that goes to the terrible Southeast? WINNIPEG. Terrible goaltending / thin-ass forward depth / tiny payroll Winnipeg.

I know who I’d rather face in the first round, even if an Ottawa-Winnipeg first round would generate all sorts of small-town Canada jokes and receive a modicum of coverage next to a Center-of-the-hockey-universe, first-playoff-game-in-eight-years Toronto v. Big Bad Bruins w/ a side of Kessel drama.

As an aside, I have to say: it’s almost nice to see Toronto enjoy a young, exciting player like Kadri. They drafted him, developed him, and now it’s paying off. I don’t think that’s happened in all my years of watching hockey.

All this to say: go Leafs go? You can have the Bruins. For me, the Bs are a worst-case scenario; I’d rather face almost anyone else, but if it was the Jets it would be like waking up on Christmas morning.

Calgary Rebuild is finally  happening

After receiving peanuts for probably the best player in franchise history, Feaster got a pretty good return for Bouwmeester last night. A first round pick in this very deep draft from a team that is probably going to have a mid-round pick is a good haul. Even if St. Louis makes the playoffs, it’ll be against Chicago or Anaheim and I don’t see them pulling that off. If they don’t make the playoffs, Calgary gets next year’s 1st rounder, which could be even more intriguing. St. Louis is a poor team with a huge number of quality players to re-sign this off season. You could see them returning a much inferior squad next year, in which case, who knows where that 1st will land? The gambler in me (presuming this gambler was also a Flames fan) would almost root for the Blues to miss the post-season so you could wait and see where that next pick is going to land.

On a related note, Feaster continues on his streak of demanding third-tier prospects in return. One of the prospects he received back is an older goaltender who isn’t even qualified yet. Either his scouting department is on some Rain Man, experimental jazz trip, or they’re using NHL 2013 like I am.

Also interesting: by trading two of its players, Calgary went from a  top five payroll team to 16th.

Buffalosers

Good to see Buffalo also come out blinking into the sunlight after their long period of acting like spending money turns you into a contender. I’m starting to think that trade deadline day is going to consist of watching Buffalo come apart at the seams. They haven’t received much of value yet (two 2nd rounders, starting next year? So, two players who you’re 5-6 years from even glimpsing in the pros?), but I’ll be very interested to see what they can get for Miller, Vanek, and Pominville. They could end up setting the market.

Oh, I guess this is an Ottawa blog

What should Ottawa do at the deadline, anyway? Well, considering how quickly any players of consequence are being snatched up, I can’t imagine Bryan Murray swinging for the fences on this one, and I desperately hope he doesn’t part with that 1st rounder. The best player I think Ottawa can hope for is a familiar face: Jason Spezza or Jared Cowen coming back in time for the playoffs. This deadline day was already going to be a boring one, but I think it might be especially so for Sens fans.

Weekend Grab Bag: Jesus Walks Edition

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So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

The long weekend is here FUCKING FINALLY which means it’s time to spend enormous amounts of time on our smartphones while family members talk in the direction of our heads. Let’s get started!

The Iginla Trade

I know Iggy had the hammer on this one with his no trade clause, and maybe it just came down to him knowing that the Penguins had an offer on the table and refusing to waive his clause for anyone else, but this seems like an awfully low return for what was supposed to be the best rental on the market. Two college players, neither of whom have played pro at any level, one of whom is a former third round pick and the other a former fifth? Both Agostino and Hanowski have good numbers in the NCAA, but neither have what the race-horse-minded might call pedigree, or were ranked particularly highly on Hockey’sFuture AKA what people without scouting departments look at. Plus, they’re both wingers, so you’re not building from any particularly foundational position—goaltender, or puck-moving defenceman, or first line playmaking center, for example.

Perhaps the weirdest is that they dealt their best hand well before the trade deadline. There was no waiting to see if the offers might sweeten, no playing one party off of the other until the bitter end. It seems unfair to say this was botched, but it certainly is underwhelming. One gets the sense that maybe, to their credit, Calgary wanted to end the uncomfortable situation for Iginla as soon as possible.

One hopes that if this really is the start of a Calgary rebuild that they keep going—convince Kipper to accept a trade, send off Bouwmeester, Tanguay, and Cammalleri if they can, etc. Because they just traded their most cherished player for two guys who project as complementary wingers and a late first round pick, and that’s not going to do it. We’re a long way from Atlanta trading a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick along with a roster player for Keith Tkachuk.

Update: great reads about this trade here and here.

The Trade Deadline

Why do the networks keep doubling down on this disappointing spectacle? TSN and Sportsnet are ramping up, as if any of us really plans to watch their networks from 8am until 3pm to see a panel endlessly debate why team X traded a 3rd round pick for depth player Y. Morrow and Iginla are already traded; Getzlaf, Perry and Semin have re-signed. Most teams think they’re still in it, except for Florida, whose big trading chips are all hurt. We’re looking at a deadline day where the big trade may be Mike Rebeiro or Matt Cullen—though both of their teams are at least in the hunt and will probably stand pat. Despite all this, the networks are running epic, slo-mo commercials in which they display their armies of analysts, ready to spring into action with insufferable rhetoric and hyperbole. I’m pretty sure at this point we could all just pick up a newspaper the next day and get what we need, or follow Bob MacKenzie’s Twitter if you really need to know about how Jagr’s negotiations are going in Dallas.

Meanwhile, in Ottawa, Murray doesn’t have any of those delicious 2nd round picks he likes to trade at the deadline, but we are blessed with a semi-interesting GM who always surprises his fan base. I’m sure he and Tim Murray have their eye on at least one or two Turris-like players—young enough to play on an upcoming club and be a part of the future, and worth giving up substantial assets for. Any late 1st rounder who the Murrays pick at the draft this summer would be 3-4 years away from playing, and then another 1-3 years from hitting their prime, which is probably past when Ottawa wants to be competing anyway. So maybe they could package that 1st with Bishop and get a quality player. Or maybe we’ll do what we did at the start of Free Agency last year and go, “who the hell is Mike Lundin?”

Eugene Melnyk is still an idiot

Can’t say I’d act much differently if I was a billionaire who owned a sports team, and so had an open invitation to show up on any Toronto radio show I wanted, but man is this guy an embarrassment for the franchise. I wrote earlier how Euge has to be made to see how this conveys an impression of Ottawa as a small time market full of obsessed hockey fans and media, who, like most Canadian markets, are more difficult to play for and impossible to please. Stuff like this makes me shake my head that we ever thought Corey Perry was going to sign with an Ontario team. Why wouldn’t he take big money, the extra year on his contract, and the chance to play somewhere warm and not insane (or insane for different reasons) like Anaheim? You don’t see their owner embarrassing everyone associated with him on the radio.

Eugene. Stop it, man. Just stop it.

The Southeast

You’ve got to feel for Thrashers fans (they existed, I’m sure of it) who waited it out and waited it out and never lived through a simultaneous Carolina / Washington swoon, which would have allowed them to ‘win’ the pathetic Southeast division and enter the playoffs as the third seed in the conference. Now Winnipeg—only four games over .500, and almost ten full points back of the 4th place Boston Bruins—will enjoy home ice advantage, and probably against the Leafs. They’re going to make so much money during that playoff series. They’re at least six points up on their SE competition, which is pretty insurmountable with only about 15 games left, so they can probably shell out at the deadline for something—anything—to help out poor Andrej Pavalec.

Enjoy this, Winnipeg fans, because realignment is going to kick your ass.

Who’s Ottawa playing tonight?

The Rangers? Pfft. We got this.

Roundtable of Death: Which pending UFAs should BryMurr bring back? / spending other people’s money

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2
tod
Varada
Daniel Alfredsson
Look, I think he’s lost a step. He’s missing wide open nets, giving the puck away, trying to beat younger men one-on-one with that puck-the-puck-off-the-boards-then-climb-over-the-guy thing he does but it’s not working anymore…he’s just not looking elite out there. He also still plays 20 minutes a night, on the penalty kill and the power play, in all crucial situations, and carries himself like a consummate professional. The tangibles and intangibles are ridiculous, and I fear this team’s post-Alfie experience. Obviously I’d resign him, and I’d even do so at a premium to make up for the fact that he only made $1MM salary this year–half of which he lost to the lockout. That’s right, Alfie made $500,000 this year. If he’ll have us for another year, we should have him.
Guillaume Latendresse
Like you said in an earlier post, James, we’re starting to see what this guy can go. He looks like a legit top-six forward, even with is sluggish skating, and if he’s willing to take another bonus-heavy contract to mitigate the fact that he’ll spend most of the season injured, I think why not? It can’t cost the team much more than what they’re paying now. If anything, he can be had for cheaper.
Peter Regin
 
Apologies to Steven, who loves this man for reasons I cannot understand, but Regin is fast becoming the new Jesse Winchester: a guy who will get to say he played in the NHL for a bit, and for a brief, brilliant moment, was placed on the first line with some real stars. I’d be  curious even to see if Regin gets picked up by another club.
Sergei Gonchar
 
I think we all knew when I proposed this article that this is basically what I was talking about. Gonchar’s looked awesome for pretty much the first time since he was signed, making the kind of simple, intuitive plays that you expect from a veteran. If he wants to play another year in the NHL – and I think this year is demonstrating that he’s able – someone will sign him. If he doesn’t want to play for the Islanders or Panthers, though, he should consider taking a one year extension along with Alfie. Ottawa is still 1-3 years away from having to extend their rookies to big money contracts, so they can afford Gonchar. And if this year is any indication, depth-especially on the back-end- is king. The other reason? Look at the UFA market for d-men. Who else are you going to sign if you need to? 38 year old Roman Hamerlik?
Mike Lundin
 
He never really got his chance in Ottawa due to his own injuries, but when he has played he’s been slotted on a lower pairing. Not a great thing when you consider that your ice time is being given to young AHLers like Gryba and Wiercioch. Lundin should probably be a casualty of the depth chart, even if he’s cheap as hell. Also, look at his CORSI numbers: he hasn’t been driving puck possession, which is a problem when you’re supposed to be a hybrid puck-mover.
Andre Benoit
 
You feel for Beniot, too, because he’s an older, career AHLer who’s finally found a club who will play him. He’s cheap, he’s effective, and he’s playing MacLean’s system well. Look at his CORSI relative to Lundin’s: he’s playing well. I would re-sign Benoit, especially if he’ll accept a two-way contract, though if he’s earned the right to demand anything at this point it’s probably a one-way contract and a chance to play a full season. Not sure if he’ll survive camp, but there are worse things than occasionally scratching a guy who only makes $650k a year.
Ben Bishop
 
Ah, the other key question. Much like Ottawa’s defensive depth has been a savior, so too has been having three outstanding goaltenders. I know Bishop is the natural player to be moved – he’s 26, and he’s at the height of his value, but he’s also a restricted free agent without a ton of leverage. I like Andy a lot, but who can you get more for on the trade market? Andy was playing Vezina hockey earlier, and makes far more money. I’d rather see Bishop re-signed and the reins handed to he and Lehner.
James

Daniel Alfredsson

Alfie gimme ooone more chaaaaace. I agree Alfie’s game has diminished a little but my observation is that’s only noticeable some games, not all. With certain stretches of the season’s compressed schedule often serving up as many as 4 games a week, it’s not crazy to see him look a bit gassed some games. Asking a 40 year old, even of Alfie’s fitness and ability level, to play as many minutes as 23 year old Kyle Turris is a model I can’t believe is working. I accept some speed bumps here and there. Hiccups aside, Papa Alfie looks a little older but all things considered, only a little. I think he comes back next year and for the love of Jesus Murphy hope he gets to play reduced minutes in an 82 game season. Team has all sorts of cap space and you know he wont even ask for much salary. Lastly, if the team does end up getting two clearly defined lines going next season, I don’t think its crazy to think he could play till 41. Bibi hear our prayer.

Bill Lantendresse

Given the avalanche of injuries (including his own) exposing the importance of depth I think Ottawa could use all the top six players they could get next year. Frankly, Milan Michalek freaks my shit out at this point. We’re looking at 15 games service from him this year. He’s a Spezza type guy where it looks like some time missed is basically a guarantee but the skill is worth hanging on to. Anyway, Lantendresse ain’t exactly Tony Starks or anything either but he’s a left winger who’s fast proving he’s still a top six player and at this stage of his comeback I think can still be had on the cheap.  As for his lack of foot speed, I’ll be concerned as soon as I see it as a factor that hurts the team. As long as he keeps doing his thing in the crease I think he’s got a style of play that’s really working. Besides Ottawa’s seen success in the past with one if not the slowest top six left winger in the league (Heatley, Danii). Say yes to the Latendresse. I’d give him a year or two at the same 2MM rate.

Peter Regin

I put one of my trademark smartass polls on twitter this weekend asking who would score goal numero uno of the season first: Peter Regin or Eric Gryba. A lot of people replied that it would be “hilarious” if Gryba did. Not so sure how hilarious that ended up being when it actually happened. As Ottawa fans that have followed Regin’s career we know his game has its strong points and lot of potential but Im sick of watching Daugavins and Obrien get scratched for this guy. After watching him get batted around like a ball of yarn against Tampa on Saturday I think he’s played himself off the team…and with only 3 assists and a -2 rating in 23 games, he could find himself in the KHL next year.

Sergei Gonchar

This one is really tough because I don’t know how smart it is to re-sign Gonchar. I also just doubt it will happen on Gonchar’s side of the table. I think it’s pretty safe to say he’s going to want 2 years and a good amount of money. You have to love his play. He’s kept this team alive on the back end in King K’s absence. HE LEADS THE TEAM IN POINTS FOR GOD’S SAKE. But let’s please all of us remember that as young as Sergei is playing he will be 39 in 19 days. Going with the extremely reasonable assumption that it will take 2 years to get him to sign in Ottawa again, don’t come running to me when you’re ripping your hair out at watching a 41 year old Gonchar on the back end. I think instead we acknowledge Sergei played a huge role in keeping the season alive, we let him know we should have told him we loved him more and let him sign that overpriced one year deal that he will only sign in Pittsburgh (who I HAAAATE btw). I wish I could Freaky Friday Gonchar and Phillips’ contracts.

Frozen Dinner Mike Lundin

Sorry Homer, I am just your memory. I cannot provide you with any new information at this time. I think Borowiecki gets his shot next year and bumps Lundin. Boro is young, tough and if you ask me has a bit of an underrated pass. I sincerely hope Lundin lands a job somewhere but I think it’s time for more of the kids who can likely play a comparable game to get some experience.

Andre Benoit

I would definitely love if Ottawa gave this guy a long term 2 way deal. Like, make him the indefinite captain of the Binghamton Senators a la Denis Hamel before him. People have their issues with him but like with Gryba, these guys were given a pretty unreasonable amount of responsibility. Benoit has a very heavy shot for and doesn’t get manhandled too bad for a small defender. A guy I’d love the Sens to have on speed dial for a call up. If he can get a one way from another team though, that’s great for him.

Ben Bishop

I think he’s done a great job but I’m not about to say I want to see him play over Craig Anderson. I know I’ve long been of the “let Lehner spend a few years in the AHL whats the rush?” opinion. But my opinion’s changing here. If one goalie has to be moved I am actually quite comfortable with the idea of Lehner being an NHL back up. The last couple of games have shown some shades of RAWbin Lehner but I think he could handle the backup role well, even excel being eased into the league. With Anderson’s injury, Lehner hasn’t exactly been given the easy teams in his starts. Gotta love the rookie as the go-to starter against Boston. In a perfect world I would keep all three (doi I want all the toys!) but if that’s not feasible Anderson and Lehner are the guys I hang onto. Ottawa finally has a goaltender who’s putting up Vezina numbers I’m not about to say ‘move the guy.’ Please send Bishop as far away geographically as possible and to a team that plays with extra large nets. Les Numeros:

Craig Anderson

15

22

1.49

459

.952

2

0

8

4

2

884

58:58

0

0

0

Robin Lehner

8

17

2.05

283

.940

0

0

3

1

4

497

62:14

0

0

0

Ben Bishop

10

25

2.62

318

.921

0

0

6

4

0

573

57:19

0

0

0