Hugh Jessiman – Ah, who cares. It’s a warm body for Binghamton. When is the other shoe going to drop on reaching the cap floor, though?

You have to think that Murray is going to bring in at least another $2MM-$2.5MM player (presuming he re-signs O’Brien and Daugavins to similar contracts to what they received last year), and he may need to fill up to $7MM of space if Alfredsson decides not to return. Maybe Adnan over on SilverSevens gets his wish and we see Alex Semin in a Senators uniform. But I’d bet on more defensive depth. The forward corp is already looking at players in the press box.

Jagr – This is just hilarious. $4.5MM for a 54 point player? Every article I’ve read so far talks about how “invigorated” Jagr seemed last year in Philadelphia, and how he helped Claude Giroux become a dominant player. How about playing with Giroux helping Jagr to score 54 points, which, by the way, was only seven more points than Nick Foligno? Dallas will probably sell a few more jerseys as a result, but can’t imagine Jagr possibly living up to this salary.

Who’s left? – there’s a lot of 30+ year old veterans on the market – Doan, Huselius, Hagman – but not a lot of players who you want taking time from your prospects. Michael Rozsival out of Phoenix might be worth looking into, having played good second pairing minutes to a great CORSI rating. Carlo Colaiacovo too. And then there’s Peter Mueller, who could be reunited with Kyle Turris as two players Phoenix poured all kinds of development time into and got nearly nothing out of.

Again, some random thoughts on free agency as we head out into the hockey wastelands of summer.

Cap floor – I went on Twitter for a little while yesterday (not usually something I like to do) and it seemed like there was much discussion and confusion on just how far under the cap floor Ottawa is after these first couple of days of free agency. According to Capgeek, Ottawa has to spend almost $4.3 million to reach the cap floor. And other than Jim O’Brien and Kaspars Daugavins, there are no additional free agents that need signing.

That means that there has to be another move pending from Brian Murray, doesn’t there? Do we trade for the ghost of Tim Thomas? Did Jonathan Cheechoo sell his house in Orleans?

Who’s left? – other than Parise and Suter, I mean. I read somewhere that Parise wants $12M in each of the first two years and at least a decade-long deal, so let’s not touch that with a ten foot pole. Suter would be an amazing pick-up, but will probably get something similar. The rest is a whole lotta mixed nuts. Anyone want a slightly used Wojtek Wolski or Marco Sturm? Can only hope Ottawa is in on these Bobby Ryan sweepstakes. Apparently Anaheim wants a second line center back in return. We have a couple of those (kind of) in Turris, Regin, maybe Zibanejad. They probably don’t want prospects though.

Toronto Maple Leafs  – hilarious to see Brian Burke pontificate on how July 1st brings out the worst in GMs when he so memorably said “July 1st is our draft” only a few years ago. So, let me get this straight: he doesn’t use the draft to build, doesn’t use offer sheets, doesn’t offer front-loaded contracts, and doesn’t rely on July 1st. How can any GM abstain from so much on principle and still hope to build a team? What’s left except to trade mediocre players for different mediocre players?

Didn’t stop TSN from dedicating a few too many words on the Leafs signing a third line centerman, though.

Derek Roy – sort of can’t believe Buffalo only got Ott and Pardy for Roy. Sure, Roy had a stinky last season, but Buffalo is a team with a permanent coach. Surely there was a GM out there who thought Roy could be productive in a different system with different linemates, especially on such an affordable deal and with only one year left on it. Instead, the Sabres get a pesk who can put up a few points, and an enforcer. It’s like trading Chris Neil and Zenon Konopka for a former first line center. Seems totally weird to me.

If there was any doubt that Ottawa is a team on a tight internal budget, that’s all gone now. Having poured money into Karlsson’s new deal, Ottawa couldn’t even bring in their shutdown defenceman without shipping out a comparable deal in return. Then they took a flyer on two players who figure to contribute or barely play at all, giving them one year deals for about a million each. We’re thinking of changing our name to Welcome to Your Lundin Years.

Foligno for Methot – I think we all knew that Foligno was going to be traded sooner or later. Like Antoine Vermette years ago, he was a player who, rightly or wrongly, had expectations foisted upon him and didn’t meet them. Like Vermette, he was long rumored to be a part of one package or another, and was sought by other GMs who know he can be a solid complementary player. And LIke Vermette, when Murray finally pulled the trigger, it was for a return with potential to go either way.

Ottawa needed a shutdown defenseman, and with players like Jason Garrison getting $4M+ and SIX YEARS (nuts), it seemed the only way it was going to happen was by trade. Also, with Foligno set to get around Methot’s annual pay anyway ($3MM cap hit), they offset each other.

But is he any good? I guess, in a word: maybe. Methot played a career high average of about 17 minutes a night last season, having previously hovered around 16. His CORSI is all over the damn place – Relative CORSI is a terrible -16.3, but QOC was positive (even if it was only 0.920). So he was one of the worst players on a very poor team, basically. He’s also already 27, so he probably doesn’t have much room to grow.

There are plenty of questions about how he was used by coach Scott Arniel, so I’ll reserve judgement. But to me, this move seems about what Murray can afford. If the Senators need to be a team close to the cap floor, then maybe he couldn’t afford a new deal for Foligno and the defenseman he needed. Still, I hate to see Foligno go this way. It’s like trading a likeable guy with some upside just as he’s entering his prime for new carpeting in the dressing room.

Filip Kuba – Unlike almost everyone else, I think $4M a year is pretty reasonable for a guy who can play 18-20 minutes a night. Or, if it’s too much, it’s not by much. I think he’ll be a good player for Florida. Unspectacular and reliable.

You have to wonder if Ottawa would have been better off giving Kuba this deal than having to give up Foligno for Methot, who’s on a four year deal, and makes almost as much as the salary escalates year-over-year.

Not signing PA Parenteau or David Moss – Two random names, I know, but I like both players and thought they’d complement Ottawa’s system well. Parenteau got four years at $4M per in Colorado, and Moss got two years in Phoenix.

Clearly it’s the best time to trade him. His value will never be higher! We could get a second round pick for this year’s draft.

Not much to say here that hasn’t already been said: Karlsson’s win is only an upset in the context that people who haven’t really watched him play that much don’t like his lack of penalty killing. But hey, it’s an award without any clearly outlined criteria. What do you expect? Don’t hate democracy. He could just have easily been robbed because Weber was “due.” I find the Jack Adams way more problematic. (It’s awarded to the coach who does the most with the least OR the coach who takes over midway and makes the biggest difference. Never mind that these two things aren’t valued relative to each other very well, or that we don’t know if “doing the most” is as important as “having the least.” Ugh, who cares.)

Anyway, Pierre McGuire said he puts the over/under on Norris trophies for Karlsson at three, which is amazing.

Especially nice to see the win against former Senator and The One Who Got Away, Zdeno Chara.

Anyway, this is just a quick note to say congratulations to Our Special Little Guy on the best week of his life. I know that if I won a major award on the same week that I made $45.5 million, I’d probably have a spring in my step. We hitched this blog train to the right player. Good thing we didn’t name ourselves “For Relaxing Times, Make it Konoptka Time.”

Stevie Y traded some significant assets for Nashville goalie prospect Anders Lindback the other day – not a bad return for Dave Poile, considering Lindback is a former 7^th round pick. Lindback is a big guy (almost as big a Ben Bishop) and has played a combined 38 games in the NHL to date with good numbers, albeit in a terrific defensive system. And so the assumption is that he is ready to carry a team on his own.

This strikes me as flawed logic, but it’s about as conventional a concept as you’ll come across in today’s NHL. We’ve worked up a narrative: a club will have a veteran starter and a young backup. When the backup has a few good games – let’s say he hits 20 games played in a season – the analysts start talking about him being ready to be a starter, and how the club has a decision to make. This creates a little bit of drama to write around, an excuse to use the term “goalie controversy,” and subsequently a market for this new “starting” goaltender.

My fundamental skepticism is derived from the notion that playing a game every other week isn’t the same as playing 60+ games in what seems like the most psychologically demanding position in professional sports. There are plenty of examples of these young goalies being handed the keys to a franchise only to flounder.

Toronto traded for Calder-winning Andrew Raycroft, and immediately signed him; despite a bad season, he had hardware to his name, and was considered not only a solid prospect, but a goaltender young enough to provide stability in the position for a decade. After Raycroft bombed out, the club traded 1^st and 2^nd round picks to San Jose for Vesa Toskala, with hilarious results. Toskala’s numbers playing behind Nabokov in San Jose were very respectable, but he was considered sub-replacement level with the Leafs.

Mike Smith was traded from Dallas to Tampa Bay after being mentored by Marty Turco, and was a central asset in the package that brought Brad Richards to Dallas. Smith was treated as the solution to Tampa’s longstanding problems in net. (As Lindback is now treated.) The irony being that the most stability the franchise has enjoyed in years was due to a 42 year old Dwayne Roloson standing on his head. Mike Smith was unceremoniously released, and signed on the cheap in Phoenix.

Josh Harding in Minnesota has had trade rumors around him for years, but a few key injuries kept other teams from biting. Likewise, goalies are being mentioned in several of the potential packages for Rick Nash, and I pity to poor soul who gets traded to Columbus and billed as the team’s savior in exchange for their franchise player and captain. Columbus is likely to trade their best player for tomorrow’s Josh Harding.

And it’s not just the desperate clubs, without UFA options or prospects. Some go so far as to call Vancouver’s Cory Schneider not only a starting goaltender, but an “elite” “franchise” player. He played 33 games this season, a career high, with very good numbers. But how does he fare playing twice that, in a market that expects to win a Cup? You can say a lot about Luongo and that terrible contract, but he’s a starting goaltender, and probably top ten in the league. To me, it’s just nuts to think that he’ll be traded for next to nothing when Schneider seems as much as a risk and can probably yield you much more in a trade.

So what does all of this have to do with Ottawa? Well, the Sens are in the relatively novel position of having some prospect depth in net. The club has two exciting young netminders in Ben Bishop and Robin Lehner, and has stated that they intend to draft another goalie this year. And while I’m usually one to go with quantity when it comes to goaltenders, I have to wonder if the market for prospects is getting too good to pass up.

Let’s say this season gets off to a poor start, and Ottawa looks like it will miss the playoffs. (We’ll have plenty of season prediction posts in due time, but it should be evident if you’ve read my soapboxing that I think this is likely.) Bishop is right on the cusp of being considered one of those goaltending prospects just waiting to become a starter. With nothing to lose, the club could get him his experience and drive up his value. In the offseason next year, with Bishop still an RFA, any number of teams who feel they were one quality save away from being where they wanted to be gets a phone call. Could Murray turn the 2^nd rounder he gave up for Bishop into something much better, or even make Bishop the cornerstone of some silly package for next year’s Rick Nash?

And then there’s Lehner, who is younger than Bishop but entered some elite company after winning playoff MVP on last season’s Calder Cup winning Binghamton team. I’d hate to see him go, but his stock is definitely on the rise.

Goaltending is so fickle that it’s hard to understand why GMs risk any amount of money or picks on supposed “sure things.” I’d feel about as comfortable heading into a season with a mix of three or four cheap veterans and prospects as I would with an anointed starter on a big ticket contract. But the offseason is here, and GMs are about to get nutty. Ottawa would do well to exploit the panic of others.

That’s right! Two posts in two days! It can only mean one thing: my boss is away at conference.

Anyhoo, interesting article over here. I’m a sucker for anything that goes back and reads the tea leaves of former drafts for trends. This one points out that because the developmental timeline for most defencemen is longer than a forward, it’s more difficult to forecast their ceiling. Because it’s easier to whiff on taking them, it makes less sense to use a valuable first round pick on the back end. This is discussed in the context of the LA Kings, who used several first round picks on defencemen over their horribly long rebuild, and saw few of them become contributors. In the end they signed UFAs like Mitchell or Scuderi, or saw players drafted in later rounds like Voynov become bigger contributors. (Doughty is the elephant-sized exception to this rule.) The same can of course be said of goalies, though for some reason this is common knowledge while the defenceman principle has yet to shine through.

If you have a top five pick it rarely matters: you’re going to get a good player (though not necessarily an elite one). The point sort of being that there are two basic draft assumptions that mid-round drafters like Ottawa can live by:

1. Never draft a goalie or defenceman in the first round; always a forward. First round picks are too valuable to risk on something so hard to predict.
2. Draft more defencemen overall than forwards. Because of the difficulty in predicting who will succeed, you need to up your chances of success. Just use later picks.

The interesting thing this year is that so many defencemen are projected to go in the first round. A number of mock drafts have a couple of D going in the first few picks – Ryan Murray, Mathew Dumba, Morgan Rielly, maybe Jacob Trouba – but I really wouldn’t be surprised to see a few of these players slip down the board. Murray’s probably going to get picked early, but I can’t see too many teams leaving a Teuvo Teravainen or Sebastian Collberg on the board so they can draft one of many solid-looking D who are still years away from playing.

What this means for Ottawa, perhaps, is that they’ll have a slew of quality defencemen log jamming the mid-round and not a lot of quality forwards available. It puts the team in an interesting spot: do you go with common wisdom, trade down, and simply grab more defencemen later on? Or do you use your pick on one of these spurned defencemen and hope like hell you got the right one?