The Hater’s Guide to Week 21

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This is a weekly feature that takes an uncharitable look at the Senators’ upcoming opponents.

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Me, dropping the rawest verse of 2016 (not pictured: you, starting a verse with your name followed by “and I’m here to say”)

Tuesday, February 23 – Senators @ Oilers

Whenever I hear my dear, beloved fellow Senators fans argue that the team should have committed harder to its sell-off a few years ago, tanked for multiple seasons, and stockpiled a series of high draft picks in order to contend sustainably, I think of our friends in Edmonton (motto: Any Farther North and You’re in the KHL). Can you even imagine? If the Senators had traded their moderate-ish success of the last five years – first-round-shellacking-of-the-Habs pennants hang forever, BTW – for a bunch of unsupervised kids that still hadn’t won anything? The calls from Ted in Greely that Ian Mendes would be enduring right now? “Well,” you might say, “the Senators would have developed those guys better than Edmonton did.” The same team that many argue hasn’t effectively developed Jared Cowen, Cody Ceci, and Curtis Lazar, yes?

The modern Oilers are like a cautionary driver’s ed film that GMs should be forced to watch before they’re allowed to start tanking. You want your license? Okay, but not until see how dangerous what you’re about to do can really be. Look at the wreckage. Look at the high-priced prospects, just strewn about; the shaken fans, staggering from the scene. It doesn’t matter how good you are behind the wheel, there are some situations you just can’t control. The thing is, Tim Murray probably watched this film and STILL thought he could beat the odds and get Connor McDavid. And where’d McDavid end up, after all that? Edmonton. God doesn’t play dice, my ass.

PREDICTION: Zack Smith is an investor in Eric Gryba’s duck call company, so look for him to stage an impromptu shareholder’s meeting at an Edmonton-area Milestones where he asks Gryba tough questions about the company’s direction, like, “So how you doin’, man?” and “You want another basket of garlic wings?” Then look for Smith to continue his recent goal-scoring ways against the Oilers the following night, and for him to call Gryba later this season to brag about how when he was traded, it was for a higher-round pick. Senators 5, Oilers 0.

Thursday, February 25 – Senators @ Canucks

We were talking about the sexy-but-dangerous unpredictability of tanking earlier, but the Vancouver Canucks have the opposite problem – their window is probably closed, but they refuse to accept reality and start over, trying desperately instead just to scrape into the playoffs every year through short-term, patchwork moves. Man, I wouldn’t want to be in that situation. The Canucks actually have it worse than the Senators ever did – do you remember all that loose, “trade Alfredsson” talk the last few years he was in Ottawa, supposedly to give him a shot at a Cup, but practically to reboot the team’s core and stop paying several million dollars a year to a guy whose almost-40-year-old body could crap out at any time? And the counter-argument from more sentimental fans who thought this would be the ultimate betrayal (uh, turns out not quite)? Imagine that situation in Vancouver, except there’s two of him.

How do you balance loyalty with long-term, sustainable success, though? Can you still build around veterans that have lost a step, hoping they’ll impart other values to your team, or do you have to turn over your roster every three years like you’re a Burger King night manager throwing out drunks? Do you attract players by fostering an environment that takes care of them, or do you attract players by winning consistently? Are there warning signs that you’re being too complacent? There are, actually; one is not making it either to or out of the first round of the playoffs four years in a row, as the Canucks have done recently. The other is probably Chris Phillips. Yo.

PREDICTION: You know who’s a big-body, hockey player-lookin’ guy that occasionally convinces GMs he might be a good pickup for a team that’s trying to stay relevant? Alex Chiasson. Don’t ask me how I know this. Look for Chiasson to have another good game on Thursday as he knows he’s playing for next year’s contract, and for the Canucks to immediately part with a few B-level prospects to make him like the seventh Alex on their roster. Never surrender, Canucks. Senators 5, Canucks 0.

Saturday, February 27 – Senators @ Flames

Okay, let’s review: don’t tank, but also don’t hang on to your core too long. So what’s left? Be good, make the right moves at the right time, and stay good forever. Not so hard, right? This lesson isn’t illustrated by the Flames, by the way; they just happen to be the third team the Senators play this week. No, it’s a lesson best illustrated by . . . I dunno, the Blackhawks? The Kings? Two long-term successful franchises who also happen to value winning so highly that they’re completely morally bankrupt when it comes to the character of their players, unless and until it conveniently suits their needs? Maybe that’s the key to long-term success: be morally bankrupt. Although a lot of fans don’t like that either? Basically just don’t be a hockey team, maybe.

What’s that? We’re supposed to be talking about the Flames? Snooze.

PREDICTION: Have you ever been to Calgary? Hang on, let me rephrase that. Have you been to Calgary, and then ever made a joke about Kanata? Because Calgary is basically Kanata if it stretched for forty miles in every direction. It’s a downtown core surrounded by new-money suburbs surrounded by the horizon. Yeah, congrats on scoring that three-car garage 90 minutes from work. No, I don’t know when the market’s going to turn around either. Senators 5, Flames 0.

Season prediction record: 28-26-6

Next week: The long-awaited Dion Phaneuf homecoming (ft. Chris Martin).

The Jail Phone: On Plans, Phaneuf, and a 2015-2016 Pre-Mortem

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tfw ur thinking about bobby ryan and dion phaneuf’s 2021 cap hit

Once a month, James and Luke sit down separated only by a piece of plexiglas and talk shit for a few hours. The Jail Phone is a recurring segment containing the transcripts of those conversations.

Luke: Hi James.

I dunno if you’ve been outside today, but there’s so much white powder out there it looks like a Saturday Night Live after-party in 1979. As such, I thought you’d might like to grab a glass of your favourite winter beverage and we might have a little fireside chat about the State of the Sens Union.

Earlier this season, you looked around the mass of negativity around The Sensphere and said to me, “Imagine how bad this would be if the team didn’t just go on a historic run to the playoffs on the back of an ECHL journeyman goaltender.” Well, I think we’re about to find out how bad it can get.

For my part, I’m attempting to be as Zen as possible regarding the remaining games of this season. Some people might want to go Full Tank, but this team isn’t bad enough to go Full Tank. Toronto has that shit sewn up having cemented their place in Tank History by trading for Colin Greening and then putting him on the 2nd line. I don’t care how zesty Dave Cameron gets with the line combinations, we can’t beat that.

All this to say that I still want the Sens to win, but I’m no longer upset when they lose. I’m already looking ahead to next season. Can’t wait to see who we draft 12th overall.

Tell me about your feelings. What’s on your mind? What are you hoping to get out of the rest of this season? Why are you still here?

James: Maybe I’m comin out the gate WILD apologetic but my feelings are that the Sens sort of just had a shit season. IT HAPPENS. Remember how Columbus was talked about across the board that they were poised to make a deep run this year? Imagine as a Blue Jackets fan your most optimistic moment of the year was buying a jersey that said Saad on it? Damn.

What I’m saying is, it’s frustrating to sit through but DEEC teams miss the playoffs sometimes and don’t need to go into full out rebuilds to fix things. Yes I’m glassy eyed enough to vault the Sens into the lofty status of DEEC.

The Penguins missed last year. Washington missed a couple of seasons ago…they didn’t blow it up. They made some changes but realized they weren’t totally fucked. Sure, blowing it up is an option but let’s face it, it can be as risky a plan as they come. It’s not always the answer. Ayyyye Connor McDavid is really good! *looks at standings* WOW, Edmonton is starting to turn things around they’re only two points back of 28th place!

Peter Chiarelli: Bartender, ANOTHER round of Dalai Lama-level patience for the whole fanbase please!

Sam Malone: IIIIII think y’all have had enough.

Peter Chiarelli: Fuck. THAT. Another generational talent or two and we be battling for a wild card spot just hold tight. AGAIN.

Honestly, the negativity is such that it’s hit the point that the team gets roasted even when they win. I hate to say it but personally I don’t think Sens fans have the kind of patience to tough out a full rebuild. ESPECIALLY should aaaaaaaaaaanything not go according to plan in that time. I’m seeing a full meltdown over missing the playoffs. What would happen if we drafted another Daigle?

Luke: Alexandre Daigle? The 1st overall pick this fanbase is bitter towards 23 YEARS after we drafted him?

James: To me, Tampa Bay are one of the most annoying teams in the league because they had the good fortune of being a shit pile just a FEW times. Good the odd season, shite others. Some high end picks and a few good trades while avoiding ushering in a full on culture of losing. They picked up some key players while remaining DEEC. Because of this, they’re one of the better teams in the East, having not thrown the baby out with the bathwater (blech to that imagery).

Anyway, I’m not heartbroken if we have a high pick and a better team going into next year, which I believe we have. Why? Well, we were all experts on what was wrong with the Sens all season. “Get rid of Cowen, free up money to extend Mike Hoffman, make a big move and stop wasting Karlsson’s prime” AKA, “GET A TOP 4 DEFENSEMAN!”
Here we stand, mid-February Cowen gone, Greening gone, Milo’s money off the books (no disrespect but it’s a fair amount of money off the books), and all this for a top 4 defenseman with plenty of good years left ahead of him. This is …bad?

Luke: I’m gonna talk about the last thing you said and then bring it back around to the first thing you said because I’m the sort of writer who likes to flout the conventional rules of structure.

I feel like a lot of the negativity stems primarily from a few well-spoken, high-profile blogger/media figures who have been running with this narrative that the Ottawa Senators have no coherent plan. (Please see this James Gordon article entitled “The Ottawa Senators have no coherent plan”, and this 6th Sens article where Nichols writes of Ottawa’s “whimsical ‘get into the playoffs and anything can happen’ approach to team building.”). When you think that management is just spinning The Wheel of Moves at random, it becomes pretty easy to criticize everything management ever does, because every move is more proof there is no Plan.

People like Plans. Have you ever thought objectively about tanking? The Idea of Tanking is some Jedi Mind Trick shit. If you are a fan of the worst team in the league, the default reaction is usually extreme sadness or anger. Now if you’re a fan of the Leafs or Sabres, you love losing just because management has said “Don’t worry. We’re doing this on purpose.” It’s wild. That’s the power of A Plan, James. I don’t think fans want Ottawa to tank; I think fans want the comfort that comes with having A Plan. We are lost in a world of uncertainty otherwise.

I don’t really ascribe to the above narrative, because I think the Ottawa Senators DO have a plan and that plan is to get better one incremental improvement at a time. You know, building your team the old fashioned way. Witness these moves from the past year:

Move: Erik Condra out, Shane Prince in.
Hot Take: We all love some Erik Condra, but Shane Prince is like Erik Condra only with scoring touch so that’s an improvement.

Move: Eric Gryba out, Chris Wideman in.
Hot Take: Chris Wideman is better than Eric Gryba. That’s an improvement.

Move: David Legwand out, Curtis Lazar in.
Hot Take: Old, expensive veteran exchanged for cheap kid with (ALLEGED) upside. I don’t think this one has really worked out yet, but I understand the reasoning.

Move: Patrick Wiercioch out, Dion Phaneuf in.
Hot Take: I think this is an improvement, but let’s revisit this one in a few years. Again, I understand the reasoning.

So why does the team suck this year? If had to hazard a guess, I’d say it’s because injuries to Clarke MacArthur, Kyle Turris, and probably Marc Methot, in addition to major regressions in play from Alex Chiasson, Patrick Wiercioch, Mika Zibanejad, Craig Anderson, and Andrew Hammond have totally overshadowed whatever minor improvements the team made in personnel. This is part of the reason why I’m so hard on Patrick Wiercioch. I fully acknowledge Mark Borowiecki is not as good as Patrick Wiercioch, but Boro is the same as he’s ever been whereas PW is a major part of the reason why the team is worse this year. That dude had a ROLE to take on, and he was a total no-show this season. Brutal.

This all comes back to your point that “the Sens sort of just had a shit season”. Yes. Yes they did.

If we can treat this like one of those Tampa Bay anomalies, enjoy a nice-ish draft pick, refuse to panic, and then come back next year, I’ll be pleased with that.

James: I think the acquisition of Phaneuf is pretty big. Yes, it’s early but iz it ev-R 2 earl-E 4 HOTT-TAEKZ? The optics suck because the Sens haven’t managed to win since acquiring him (Ed note: #ACTUALLY), but I’m bold enough to say that so far Phaneuf has been an improvement over Wiercioch on the second pairing. (Cowen didn’t even get a sniff at the job he was so bad).

Not even a handful of games yet, but Phaneuf has looked pretty solid and in his role as a Senator. I think much of the trepidation regarding him does have to do with the contract, but also very much the fact that it’s Dion Phaneuf. This is a guy we have dragged mercilessly for years now as Sens fans. It’s going to take some adjustment…and time to believe in him. I mean hey, I feel weird even writing that. Most importantly, of course, is that he also has to earn our trust as fans. I still remember the handwringing over Marc “Regressed to the 3rd Pairing in shitty Columbus” Methot. Or how Sergei Gonchar in his late 30’s was overpaid no matter how he played. Maybe he was overpaid but I gotta say I miss the 27-37 points per year he’d put up and the wealth of experience he brought to the dressing room. In my opinion, another vet with a track record is better than rolling the dice on more than half of the D corps like the Sens were doing.

Whatever, it’s okay to be skeptical. Who knows how trades and FA signings are going to work out. I just can’t help but dwell on the fact that after a strong finish to last season, Wiercioch has been given ample opportunity to be a top 4 defender this year and hasn’t made a case for himself. At 25, is PW’s career over? I certainly don’t think so. But I think the organization realized they can’t continue down the current path by retaining him at a qualifying offer of $2.7 million. Instead they brought on Dion Phaneuf who, at age 30, has shown that in bad year (on a shite team) he puts up a higher output than Wiercioch’s career best. All this while being a guy who’s billed more as a stabilizing, physical minute muncher than a puck moving finesse player.

Basically, he’s not going to be worth his contract in blah di blah years. Okay. I thought the big criticism was the team wasn’t making any bold moves to improve the team in Karlssons prime. Well, here it goes nothing. It’s my feeling that (when healthy) the top 6 is fine, the top pairing is fine, the starting goaltender is fine. The big problem was bolstering the top 4 and a fun surprise has been a floundering bottom six. I don’t know about you, Eddie, but I’d much rather a GM on a budget tasked with improving the bottom 6 than the top.

This year might be a bit of a wrap but I think we go into next year stronger. Which is good as Imma need all that time to adjust to seeing DION PHANEUF in a Sens uniform.

Luke: I find it amazing that we, as a blog, put up nearly 3000 words of Dion Phaneuf takes and we’re still not done. At this point I’ve spent more time writing/talking about Dion Phaneuf than I’ve spent actually watching him play.

You’ve hit on something I believe though, which is that the bottom six is/has been the biggest problem this season. I’d have a lot more respect for “Sens don’t have a PLAN” takes if they were accompanied by some commentary that implied a Karlsson-Turris-Stone-Hoffman-Ryan-Zibanejad-Not Brain Damaged MacArthur core is insufficient to be competitive in the long term. That, at least, would display conviction that one truly disagrees with what The Bryan et al. have constructed over the past 4 years. However, to the best of my knowledge, most criticism of those players tends more towards something like “Kyle Turris only makes $3.5 Million a year, but he isn’t quite Anze Kopitar, is he?” or “Sure Bobby Ryan leads Sens forwards in points this year, but can he DRIVE POSSESSION?”, and outside of that, it is generally acknowledged that Ottawa’s good players are pretty damn good. (Four Senators are in the Top 35 in scoring this year TBH).

At the very least, a pessimist would have to say that Ottawa’s acquired some very good players BY ACCIDENT.

The big question for me is whether Ottawa can find some improvements over the Alex Chiassons of the team in the next six months? Honestly, I’m hopeful. If anything, being a seller at the deadline will make that easier. It’s not like Ottawa’s 2 points back of a wild card spot and has to keep Zack Smith around so as not to mess with locker room chemistry. If I’m reading these tea leaves correctly, Ryan Dzingel can easily step into that left winger role at a third of the cost. In addition, if Kyle Dubas has taught as anything, it’s that you can create a team consisting entirely of decent depth players in a single off-season. Surely finding a mere 3 or 4 of those guys shouldn’t really be that difficult, right? Then we just gotta sort out whatever it is Dave Cameron’s doing differently from last year. This off-season is gonna be EASY.

The Hater’s Guide to Week 20

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This is a weekly feature that takes an uncharitable look at the Senators’ upcoming opponents.

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Me, resplendent in chambray (not pictured: you, sweating through cheap polyester)

We’re going to preview this week’s games with a series of short, one-act plays.

Tuesday, February 16 – Senators vs. Sabres

“Tim Murray Orders Breakfast”

MURRAY: *into drive-through box* Small black coffee.

BOX: Will that be everything?

MURRAY: Yes.

BOX: Would you also-

MURRAY: No.

BOX: For an extra-

MURRAY: No.

BOX: Alright sir, that’ll be-

MURRAY: $1.35, coming around.

FIN

PREDICTION: If you’re a GM, there are two ways you can drink coffee during a hockey game. One is the Tim Murray way, which involves sitting perfectly still for three hours, fingers steepled against your lips, just staring at the cup through designer frames and waiting for it to spontaneously combust. The other is the Bryan Murray way, which involves cursing and arm-waving and screaming and is basically the exact opposite. Either way you never drink the coffee, because those guys down there just cannot break the puck out no matter how many drills we run, Jesus. But the Bryan Murray way is more fun to watch, at least. Senators 5, Sabres 0.

Thursday, February 18 – Senators vs. Hurricanes

“Tickets”

*SCENE: Outside the PNC Arena. Two scalpers stand on opposite corners trying to outdo each other.*

SCALPER 1: Tiiiiiiiickets. Get your Canes tiiiiickets. Tickets here.

SCALPER 2: Tickets.

SCALPER 1: Lots of tickets, still available. Tickets!

SCALPER 2: Good seats, good seats. Who needs ’em, I got tickets.

SCALPER 1: Tickets!

SCALPER 2: Canes tickets. Just selling, not buying.

SCALPER 1: Tickets here. Any section.

SCALPER 2: Tickettttttttttttttttts.

SCALPER 1: 10th anniversary Cup season, check it out, tickets.

SCALPER 2: Tickets, I got ’em.

SCALPER 1: Little Nathan Gerbe, come see him. Tickets!

SCALPER 2: Tiny little Nathan Gerbe! Tick! Ets! Here!

SCALPER 1: Come see a top 5 CF% team, if you’re holding a ticket!

SCALPER 2: Get ready to see a low-PDO team bounce back, name a seat, name a price, get a ticket!

SCALPER 2: TICKETS!

SCALPER 1: TICKKKKKKKKKETTTTTTTTTTTS!

*Silence, followed by a low, howling wind from the ghost dimension*

SCALPER 1: Come on, let’s get a beer. What is PDO?

SCALPER 2: No clue. I’ll say anything.

FIN

PREDICTION: You know how when you meet a friend at the game, and your friend has a real, printed ticket – and not one of the cheap red-and-white Capital Tickets ones; I’m talking about one of those season-ticket holder versions with a picture of a sweaty Marc Methot on it – and you bought yours on Stubhub and all you have is a crumpled printout? And you pull it out of your coat pocket, and somehow there’s mustard on it, and your friend is just staring at the ground awkwardly as the CTC usher tries to scan it and it doesn’t read, and it doesn’t read again, and you’re about ready to slink out of there and just wait at the bus loop for three hours when you finally hear the ticket reader chime? And the usher gives you a warm smile, letting you know you’re just as welcome as anyone else, and everything is okay for a minute? That’s exactly the kind of compassion we need more of in this world, and exactly the kind of compassion the Senators won’t be showing for the Hurricanes in this game. Your friend’s more of a prig than Frasier Crane, by the way. Senators 5, Hurricanes 0.

Saturday, February 20 – Senators vs. Red Wings

“THE FAMILY ALFREDSSON LEAVES DETROIT” (working title: “THE SOUND OF MELNYK”)

BIBI ALFREDSSON: Children, your father and I have decided to leave Detroit. But we have to hurry. Come along now, and be quiet.

*Fraulein Schmitt enters with two Red Wings in full uniform*

FRAULEIN SCHMITT: I tried to stop them.

DANIEL: That’s okay, Fraulein Schmitt.

ZETTERBERG: Going somewhere, “captain”?

DANIEL: We were just going for a walk, Herr Zetterberg.

DATSYUK: Convenient, you are supposed to report to Red Wings camp tomorrow.

DANIEL: Was I? I don’t remember receiving a telegram about that, Officer Datsyuk.

ZETTERBERG: You’ve received several and I’m here to take you directly myself.

BIBI: Well that’s impossible, gentlemen.

DATSYUK: Why is that?

BIBI: Because… the Family Alfredsson is singing at the Windsor Casino tonight. It’s all arranged. We should really get going.

DATSYUK: How convenient. Let’s go, captain. General Holland is waiting.

ZETTERBERG: Stop! You will sing! You will ALL sing! But only because I want it to be so. I want the people of Ontario to see that nothing has changed. I shall escort you myself.

*cut to Windsor Casino Theatre*

MC: Please welcome the Family Alfredsson!

ALFREDSSONS: There’s a sad sort of clanging from the clock in the hall
And the bells in the steeple too,
And up in Kanata an absurd little pub
Is selling its Big Rig Brew;
Ruutu, Cheechoo,
Remember those guys, P.U.,
But we don’t need much revenue,
To say goodbye to you.
So long, farewell, auf wiedersehen, adieu.

*curtain falls; applause*

MC: Let’s hear it one more time for the Family Alfredsson! Come on out! The Family Alfredsson! . . . The Family Alfredsson?

DATSYUK: They’re gone!

FIN

PREDICTION: It’s 2016 now, and the idea of a Saturday night game against Detroit being a premier matchup seems like a brief, odd historical phenomenon, like pogs, or Macklemore. Look for the TV broadcast to feature half a dozen shots of Daniel Alfredsson in a private suite, looking as Zen and unknowable as ever. Senators 5, Red Wings 0.

Season prediction record: 25-26-6

Next week: West coast Canadian road trip! So don’t worry, no playoff teams.

Hearing is Believing

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There are plenty of valid theories on why the Sens have fallen flat since returning to action after the All-Star break. Not enough scoring punch, average goaltending, coaching failures, management issues, and of course, the generously porous defense. The Sens blockbuster trade with the Leafs for defenseman Dion Phaneuf has not yet brought a win.

But the true culprit of this slump has been ignored: Julia Robillard has forsaken us.[1]

Since February 2 (the date of the first Sens game post-ASG break), when a new Robillard Hearing Centres commercial that did not feature Julia aired, the Sens are 2-4. Ottawa surrendered 6 goals against Pittsburgh, was blown out by the hapless Oilers, mustered nothing against the Red Wings Petr Mrazek, and fell behind Colorado 3-0 before attempting a failed comeback last night. Yes, the Sens blew out Tampa and the Leafs since the ad aired, but even in these trying times, there are rules and Julia wouldn’t let us lose to teams wearing blue and white.

It seems like only yesterday[2] that we were celebrating the opening of the new Perth showroom with the Robillard clan. It marked the pinnacle achievement of Robillard ads. As the commercial explores the benefits of the new location, Julia, a mainstay in these ads is nowhere to be scene, until she triumphantly returns to close the commercial while confirming the worst-kept secret in capital region advertising: Julia is a diehard Sens fan. Resplendent in a Sens heritage jersey dress, she rightfully ascended to Sens celebrity royalty along with Anne Murray, Rihanna, and Zayn Malik (sorry not sorry Matt Perry).

Think how far we’d come: it was only a few short years ago we were being asked during play stoppages and intermission breaks the non-rhetorical question “do you like pizza?” as if the answer could possibly be anything other than “I like pizza”. Now, we had Julia proudly declaring her Sens fandom. Hearing truly was believing.

And yet there were signs of trouble. That glorious heritage dress ad featured the least screen time for Julia in an ad to that point. It was as if she was preparing us for the new, terrible reality we now find ourselves in. It’s not that the new ad is bad. On the contrary, the new ad features a Robillard customer telling viewers how Robillard products have changed his life. Hearing definitely is believing in this ad. It’s just without an appearance from their spokesperson, it’s nowhere near the same experience. Collectively, Sens fans are waiting for Julia’s return. We know in our hearts things won’t turn around for the team until she does.

Help us, Julia Robillard, you’re our only hope.

 

[1] If there’s a reason she’s no longer appearing in ads, we’re sorry Julia and the WTYKY gang is thinking of you.

[2] It was last month

Roundtable of Death: We Just Traded Our Worst Contracts to the Leafs Edition

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Luke: People are out here like “WTYKY must speak on this”.

James: ____________________________!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Steph: I am so begrudgingly happy right now.

Andrew: I think it’s a deal that works well for both sides. Toronto will just buyout the players they don’t want (hint: all the guys being described by Bob McKenzie as NHL calibre) and get Lindberg and a 2nd rounder because I hear they want to have the most picks in the draft (that’s real winning) and GMBM got to trade another second rounder. But really Dion isn’t great, makes too much for too long, (the opposite of my financial situation btw), but instantly improves the blueline.

You all wanted an upgrade on D (yeah, you heard me) and this is what it looks like.

It’s also a way for the Sens to get out of nearly $10M in bad deals next season and for the rest of this season, so that mitigates the cost of Dion right now. The Sens love the deferred dollars in PW and Cowen’s deals, and this is a sort of creative interpretation of that.

Whatever, now we get a few months of hoping, beyond all odds, that Cowen will re-sign in Toronto. #DareToDream.

I don’t mind this trade. Defense was a need. We weren’t going to buy out those deals, they were just going to soak up more dollars next year. It will hurt later, but whatever. Sens are better because Cowen can never get back into the lineup.

Varada: “You all wanted an upgrade on D and this is what it looks like” is seriously perfect analysis. This is what it takes to trade for a defenseman who will actually play in this league.

Sens take on $22M in future salary for a bunch of players who currently aren’t contributing anything.

You know what would be an interesting point to look at: does the sens making deals that put a big financial burden on some future version of the team mean that Melnyk is selling?

Steph: Jared Cowen isn’t a Senator anymore. Sure, okay, we got another mediocre defenseman who misguidedly fights frequently and is overpaid but…your EB-Games-employee lookin ass ex-man Jared Cowen is GONE. This deal is not a thing I’m ever going to toast to, but it’s probably not going to be the cause of my drinking either. Contract wins and losses are being talked to death right now but we won’t know who “won” this deal for a long while (hint: Sens won, they’re winning the Cup, fuck the police).

Here’s what I know about the rest of the players we’re getting from extensive research in the last 5 minutes:

One time Matt Frattin autographed this kid’s face:

IMG_9630A6DFF7B3-114A-4F6D-8C58-BD69159806DA

Ryan Rupert is a twin and twins are the work of the devil. Casey Bailey is from Alaska and Alaska is the work of the devil. Cody Donaghey’s Twitter is the reason I had to look up what GOAT means.

Andrew: Steph, I love you. I am on board. Face autographs for all. EB-Games employees rejoice.

Chet: The Sens trading for the Maple Leafs’ captain reminds me of a Vulcan proverb: “Only Nixon could go to China.” But yes, this is what trading for a Top Four Defensiveman looks like. This is also Bryan Murray throwing Wideman and Wiercioch in a locked room with a shrimp fork and telling them that only one gets to come out, because you know Borowiecki is dug in like a tick on that third pairing.

And Clarke MacArthur helped convince Murray that Phaneuf was a good egg, right? But he still has a concussion? Vivid.

What I like about this trade is the number of different ways TSN 1200 listeners will be able to roast Phaneuf (which is Albertan French for “The Nine”) after some 6-5 loss to the Islanders:

a) That GUY Phaneuf used ta be the CAPTAIN in TORONNA. He was KING of the BUMS.
b) Phaneuf? Even TORONNA was smart enough to trade that BUM.
c) Bet that BUM Phaneuf is playin’ so bad ’cause he’s ticked off that he can’t find the fancy hair gel in Ottawa like he used ta buy in TORONNA.

I’ll hang up and listen. Although in the interests of hearing both sides (you gotta), any time you can improve your D by trading for the #1 guy from a team you just pasted 6-1, you gotta do it, even if it didn’t cost you $11M worth of guys, none of whom started for your team yesterday. At least the Leafs cleared enough cap room for Stamkos to use them as a stalking horse before signing somewhere else.

Andrew: Gotta say, the Stamkos Watch and subsequent disappointment is one of my favourite angles for this trade.

James: *Movie trailer narrator guy voice* “From the miiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiind that made you fall in love with Clarke MacArthurrrr…”

Chet: I remember James describing his powerful emotions upon hearing that the Sens had signed Clarke MacArthur less than an hour after Daniel Alfredsson left for Detroit – and I’m paraphrasing, because at the time two cops had him in a headlock – as “Hey Sens fans, don’t worry, we just signed a guy you HATE.” Except nobody ever really hated Clarke MacArthur, did they? Did anybody even have an opinion on Clarke MacArthur until he came to town as something other than a blue jersey? After that it only took him five minutes to convince Sens fans he’d been a misused third-liner in Toronto, making him exactly the kind of “We Told You So, You Stupid Leafs” player that Ottawa could get behind. Phaneuf is . . . not that. Until today, Phaneuf was the overpaid, overrated, underwhelming captain of an overrated, overexposed, underperforming rival – with one of the NHL’s top 5 punchable faces – and flipping the switch completely on THOSE powerful emotions will take some time. But the Sens are a better team tomorrow, 36-year-old Dion Phaneuf is still five years away, and by the time Bobby Ryan TORCHES Jared Cowen on March 12 at the CTC, Phaneuf will officially be a member of the family. “That’s my son!” you’ll find yourself shouting despite yourself, as some drunk land-plankton in a Sundin jersey finally gets to shout “Suck it, Phaneuf!” before vomiting Carling Black Label into his sister’s purse.

What else? Karlsson is gonna use Phaneuf’s contract to ask for 700 kajillion dollars in a few years. Fine. Worth it. Milan Michalek took a lot of BS from Sens fans, but his teammates loved him, he was good on the PK, he scored 30 goals one time, he wanted to be here, and he wasn’t Dany Heatley (Heatley’s ears just perked up at that mention as his Bugatti idles at some German drive-through window). Colin Greening is a good dude with an Ivy League diploma who took all the money the Sens were willing to give him, even if his final NHL fate is being turned into Diet Nathan Horton by the Toronto Maple Leafs. Jared Cowen? You never know; what struggling players HAVEN’T turned their game around under the laid-back eye of the Toronto media? Mike Babcock has an arm around his shoulder right now, telling him, “Son, we’re going to give you every opportunity to get your game together,” as Kyle Dubas waves a “BUYOUT=650K=STAMKOS?” placard in the background. Good luck in Switzerland, you big western omelette.

I will miss Milan Michalek, actually. Yes, Michalek, the guy the Senators kept, at the same price, over Ales Hemsky, who literally only tried for 20 games – kudos to you, Bryan Murray, for not getting fooled, because Hemsky totally got ME on that one – after the Sens, barely in sight of a playoff spot, picked him up on an all-in move that ultimately failed. Is this more of the same? Yeah, maybe. But is it SOMETHING? Yes. Bryan Murray will be gone soon, but make no mistake, he’s not done writing the story Senators fans will tell about him. And I give the guy credit for that, no matter how this works out. See you in a week when he trades Wiercioch for Jonathan Drouin.

Luke: As of this morning I had resigned myself to spending the rest of the season evaluating interesting pending UFAs (Mikkel Boedker looks quite zesty! Jason Demers could be a satisfying acquisition on a number of levels!) and generally staying away from Twitter on account of my philosophy of devoting energy to things I enjoy. Then Andrew sent me a G-chat that read simply “GO ON TWITTER. NOW. TRADE.” and I was right back in.

I’m feeling very confused emotionally about this whole thing. On the one hand, there’s the joy of knowing that Ottawa has sent two of their worst players to a team I HAAAAAATE, although this joy has been somewhat lessened by every Leafs fan insisting “No, actually we want bad players!”, much in the same way I would make fun of myself in high school to discourage bullies from trodding that same ground.

There’s also a slight despair at having given up Tobias Lindberg, a prospect I really like, to a team I HAAAAAATE.

There’s also sadness at losing Milan Michalek, a consummate professional who did nothing other than whatever the org asked him to do, right down to waiving his No Trade Clause as his last official act as an Ottawa Senator.

And then there’s the uncertainty associated with acquiring a player who has mostly been an overpaid disappointment, yet could still be useful to the team given the right situation. Like James, I’ve certainly delighted in Phaneuf’s high-profile failings in the past, but even as I’ve mercilessly roasted the guy, I’ve also privately admitted that I thought Phaneuf was a victim of his role and expectations more than anything. “Dion Phaneuf: not as bad as you think!”, I would preach to my hapless friends, like a pretentious food connoisseur explaining how the shit sandwich they’d been served was actually considered a delicacy in some countries. Well now the shit is on the other baguette, and I’ll be damned if I’m not going to fake a smile as I dig in.

James: I think we all know what Toronto’s plan is for Greening and Cowen. They are using that “New, veinier leaf logo” merch money to buy them out, something Bryan Murray has consistently said was not an option for the Senators. Baring injuries to better players, Greening and Cowen couldn’t even get into the lineup anymore. On a .500 team. That…is awful. I cannot stress this enough: Jared Cowen was going to get a fucking $800,000.00 dollar raise next year. Yes, almost a million dollars for playing EVEN WORSE this year. Another angle: He was going to make $400K less than Marc Methot next season. You know, the guy who’s done nothing but hold down the top pairing for years. What a mess. Though I have spent years defending him I have to respect the money ball of getting Michalek of the books. Blessed is the player that can play in the top or bottom 6 without complaint but the hard truth is Milo though his contribution to the team can be under-appreciated, he does spend quite a lot of time injured these days. We all know deep down that the Senators aren’t really the type of team that can pay a bottom 6 penalty killer, good as he is, 4 million bananas a year. Besides what does Michalek really do at this point that Pageau doesnt? It was time.

As I attempt to scrub my internal hard drive of years and years of roasts, I cannot really say with confidence I know what Phaneuf’s play is like on a game to game basis. I’m sorry I have shit to do besides watch a terrible team that i loathe in my spare time. BUT i feel pretty good that the chances of him regressing below a second pairing defenceman are farrrrrrrrrrrr less likely than Jared Cowen progressing into a bottom pairing defender. Besides we have Hoffmans to re-sign.

Also, those in their feelings about Tobias Lindberg. He might make the Leafs yeah…THE REBUILDING LEAFS. Are we really thinking that guy had a chance of getting someone in the current top 6 out the paint? Shit, Shane Prince has twice the pedigree and is toiling on the 4th line trying to set up Chris Neil for one timers. Thumbs up to improving the defence which absolutely had to be done in exchange for shedding dead cash, giving up a prospect who had little chance here, a DEEC player and a second round pick.

Bryan Murray once traded a FIRST round pick for Chris Campoli btw.

Varada: I think I’d summarize this trade by saying, yes, it’s a blockbuster, in that trades don’t really happen anymore and this involved a lot of people. However, at the end of the day, it’s an often-injured top 6 forward, some dead cash, and some lottery tickets for a pretty ok top 3 D, some dead cash, and some lottery tickets. It’s hard for me to get worked up about it. We added a body we need now, and a player whose salary descends over the next five years who will be tradeable as the cap keeps going up. I’m a fan of the trade.

And to those who are writing that this is a terrible deal and we should be launching a BONAFIDE REBUILD™ – you know who you are, because you interpret every single occurrence through this lens – all I can say is that what was said when Phaneuf was signed to that deal remains true today: if you want to add a defenseman who can play 18-22 minutes for you every night, then you’re not getting him on the UFA market for anything less than a ridiculous number, and you’re not trading for him without giving up an amazing prospect. So you give him the term, and figure out the rest years from now. Ottawa got a player who literally could not be got any other way, and I don’t know what to say to those who are wishing we had to sit through 3-5 years of massive losing seasons instead. I’m a little tired of everything Ottawa tries being met with “Yeah, but this doesn’t fix everything the way the team being an entirely different team might fix things.”

Luke: One thing is certain, and that is that The Universe has set a course towards one of two possible realities – one reality in which Bryan Murray is hailed as an all-time genius for having managed to ship off Ottawa’s contractual dead weight to free up money for Mike Hoffman’s pending contract extension while simultaneously shoring up the Sens’ porous blue line simply by giving up a veteran 3rd line forward and Ottawa’s 3rd best prospect, or another reality in which Bryan Murray is remembered as having rid himself of two of his greatest mistakes by doubling down on an even bigger mistake and is subsequently forever ridiculed as an executive whose final year was mostly in service of our bitter provincial rival. Which reality we end up in hinges on one thing: Dion Phaneuf not playing like a pile of wet paper bags on Ottawa’s second pairing for the next 3 to 5 years.

Early predictions are mixed to say the least, but I have watched a lot of bad defensemen play for the Ottawa Senators this year, and I can confidently state that Dion Phaneuf will be an upgrade on no less than three of them.

“Phaneuf only looked good because he’s been playing against 2nd-tier competition!”, yell the braying masses. Well that’s good because that’s who Ottawa’s brought him to play against. “Phaneuf was being CARRIED by Jake Gardiner!”, goes another common criticism, as if Ottawa doesn’t have a defenseman as good as Jake Gardiner. This might be my inherent optimism talking, but it seems to me that if Dion Phaneuf can play well in certain situations on a team that is objectively terrible (Sorry, Rich Clune), he should be able to play well in certain situations on a team that is objectively slightly better than terrible. I don’t expect greatness, but I do expect an upgrade over what was there before by way of steady competence, and the peace of mind that steady competence brings is something you can’t really put a price tag on.

Well, I guess you can put a price tag on it. $33 million over 5 years would be the amount on that price tag.

Jared Cowen: A Retrospective

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Jared Cowen and I have had some fun over the years. Let’s take a look back.

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Goodbye, Gentle Giant.

The Hater’s Guide to Week 19

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This is a weekly feature that takes an uncharitable look at the Senators’ upcoming opponents.

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Me, putting cookies in a warm, toasty oven (not pictured: you, sharing another ice-cold take)

Hello! Did you have the weekend we had? With the kind of balmy weather that almost demanded a long, quiet walk at the bird sanctuary? And then you saw just the most superb owl, and celebrated with 12 pounds of hot wings and 77 beers? And woke up Monday, logy and covered in hot sauce, only to remember there were four games this week that needed previews?

It’s true, we’re running a little behind at the ol’ hater’s guide today, but don’t worry! We’re bringing back one of our most popular features, where we look at past players who left the Senators to play for one of this week’s opponents, only to endure poor performance, failure, and heartbreak. It’s the kind of feature you can feel good about. Let’s go!

Monday, February 8 – Senators vs. Lightning

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Chris Phillips mentors Brian Lee on the importance of defensive positioning.

Senators: 167 GP, 5 G, 23 A
Lightning: 42 GP, 0 G, 8 A

PREDICTION: Look for a small subset of Twitter to continue to miss Erik Condra with the understated yet intense desperation of a late-70s Neil Diamond album, and for Erik Condra to continue not to score. Senators 5, Lightning 0.

Wednesday, February 10 – Senators @ Red Wings

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Chris Phillips in an undated file photo.

Unfortunately, no Senators player has ever left Ottawa for Detroit. But that’s not bad, right?

PREDICTION: Look for a offensive outburst from Alex Chiasson, followed by a post-game revelation that Chiasson has been the latest struggling Senators forward to recently donate $50 to a member of Ottawa’s homeless community. Expect this to be covered as the kind of lightweight, feel-good story that does absolutely nothing for Ottawa’s homeless community. Senators 5, Red Wings 0.

Thursday, February 11 – Senators vs. Avalanche

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Chris Phillips congratulates Brian Elliott after a win in Buffalo.

Senators: 130 GP, 59-45, 2.80 GAA, .903 SV%
Avalanche: 12 GP, 2-8, 3.83 GAA, .891 SV%

PREDICTION: Erik Karlsson may be second in points in the entire league, but he’s still over 15 points behind league leader Patrick Kane. Look for him to make up most of the difference in this game, and for all the post-game questions to be about that pinch he was burned on in the third minute. Senators 5, Avalanche 0.

Saturday, February 13 – Senators @ Blue Jackets

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Chris Phillips and Ron Tugnutt pose for an intimate personal photo.

Senators: 166 GP, 72-53, 2.32 GAA, .906 SV%
Blue Jackets: 97 GP, 34-52, 2.62 GAA, .910 SV%

PREDICTION: A game against the Blue Jackets is the kind of low-pressure environment where Dave Cameron can try out new lines without worrying about Internet people firing off hurtful, charged phrases like “sub-optimal deployment”. So look for the debut of the Prince-Paul-Pageau line, which will be called the “Triple-P Line” by 99% of Sens fans and the “3 Feet High and Rising Line” by the rest. Senators 5, Blue Jackets 0.

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Bobby Ryan, Coded Language, and Prejudice

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(CW: prejudice and racism)

On the surface of things, Bobby Ryan’s answer to who he’s cheering for in Super Bowl 50 tomorrow might have seemed innocuous. He was just expressing a preference for one team, one set of players over another. He’s an NHLer with an understanding of what makes for a great professional. He just doesn’t like dabbing. It would be easy to read it this way.

Ryan’s been welcomed into the Ottawa community with open arms. In his three seasons with the team, he’s ingratiated himself to fans and the media alike, with his low key personality, honesty in interviews, and willingness to take responsibility for his and the team’s failings. He plays through injuries. He interacts with fans on social media and is willing to pose for pictures. He does a lot of things you want a player to do.

But he also has a pattern of racial prejudice expressed online and in the media that reflects the racist framework of North American pro sports like hockey. In today’s Ottawa Sun, a piece ran in which an informal poll of the dressing room asked which team the Sens players wanted to win tomorrow’s Super Bowl. Some expressed a desire for a Broncos win to see veteran Peyton Manning go out of top. However, a few players admitted to actively rooting against the Cam Newton-led Carolina Panthers. Clarke MacArthur commented that Carolina has “Just too much show after every play,” and Bobby Ryan echoed his teammate’s frustration. I don’t know if MacArthur’s comments are indicative of a professional conservatism often found in Canadian hockey players. They might be, as it’s certainly possible to dislike the Panthers and Newton for reasons other than race. But Ryan’s comments stand out because of how he pushed the issue and his personal history when it comes to topics of race. Here’s the relevant section from the Sun:

“I’m not a big Cam Newton fan,” Bobby Ryan said of the Carolina Panthers quarterback. “As a player, yes, I think he’s unbelievable. But I can’t stand the stuff he does.”

Over-the-top celebrating?

“Yeah, it’s idiotic,” said Ryan. “You’re up by 30 last week and you’re still doing it all over the field.”

Particularly annoying to Ryan (although apparently not to Mark Stone) is the dab, a dance move Newton has made even more popular that sees him stick both arms out to one side and bury his nose in the bent elbow.

“Guys do it around here now, which is really disappointing,” said Ryan. “It’s seeped its way into the NHL and I’m not a big fan.

“I don’t know the origin. I feel like it’s a song that’s been played, but you have to ask Stoner because he loves it.”

Prejudice and racism are easier to spot when people hurl slurs and are explicit in their language. It’s why it’s easier to denounce Donald Trump as racist but why we struggle to see why leaders in the Black Lives Matter movement take issue with many of Bernie Sanders policies.

Ryan doesn’t use slurs so many will just see these comments as a preference for the celebration style of Manning instead of Newton. Except it’s not. This is coded language, designed to obscure that race is the objection here. During the media frenzy that is the build up to the Super Bowl, Newton’s celebrations, pants, sandals, and general fashion sense has been interrogated in ways they never are for white athletes. Newton is just the latest in a long line of black quarterbacks who have been subjected to harsh criticisms their white counterparts never received. Interrogating personal choices such as fashion or on-field celebrations of black athletes is an attempt by mainstream media, professional leagues, and fans to control expressions of black masculinity, often perceived to be threatening. When white athletes, coaches, league officials, and media members talk about how to “act like a pro,” it is most often an attempt to discourage expressions of difference, whether it be sexuality, gender identity, religion, or in this case, race. “Act like a pro” more often means, “act like us” – white, cis, straight, and male.

It’s funny that in his concern for professional conduct, Ryan did not mention Manning’s longstanding misogyny, his documented sexual harassment, and his continued refusal to leave his victim alone. Peyton is viewed as professional; his substantial promotional work for pizza and insurance helps cement that image despite what we know about him. Another former NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers, celebrates touchdowns with a wrestling title-belt gesture to cheers. Cam Newton is not granted similar leeway. Instead, Ryan attacked Newton’s ebullience after scoring plays, which as someone who has watched Bobby’s euphoric celebrations after each of his Ottawa goals, seems hypocritical. Bobby can fist pump, jump into the glass, shout, and hug teammates because his intensity is never viewed as threatening. He’s white. This also provides Ryan the protection to criticize a black athlete for a practice he himself engages in.

Ryan’s dismissal of dabbing is similarly coded and not a principled stance against appropriating black culture. Rather, his ignorance of dabbing’s roots in the hip-hop community and his refusal to acknowledge its current popularity are in some ways a rejection of black expression as valid, as culturally relevant. It’s a rejection of black culture’s influence on the professional sports landscape.

This isn’t a simple difference of opinion rooted in the respective distinctiveness of football as compared to hockey. Players of colour have been subjected to similar critiques in the NHL as well. P. K. Subban’s enthusiastic goal celebrations have been denounced by some Senators in the past and frequently by mainstream hockey media. When Ryan took ownership for his late slump last season by stating “I just suck right now,” it was seen as leadership. When Subban explicitly expressed his frustration at Montreal’s lengthy ongoing slump last month, it was a “profanity-laden tirade” and comments from his parents were sought. But when Erik Karlsson swears, the media doesn’t turn it’s focus to Sweden to consult his mom and dad. In both Subban’s and Newton’s cases what fellow players and media hope to contain is their expressions of individuality, what they hope to maintain is white privilege.

If you’re concerned that this examination of Ryan’s comments is a stretch or an overreaction, please note it fits a pattern of behaviour with the Sens winger. Last year when the Sens were visiting St. Louis, Black Lives Matter protests were in full swing. These activists and community members were protesting the murder of black teen Mike Brown by police in the St. Louis suburb of Ferguson. Ryan callously tweeted that the protests were interrupting his pregame nap. It showed disdain for both the protesters and their cause. It would have been a perfect metaphor for white privilege except it wasn’t a metaphor, it was real life.

Ryan’s prejudiced behaviour on twitter goes beyond his tweets. His “likes” are a dumpster fire of racism. They reveal a penchant for agreeing with the worst racists active in American politics right now. He’s liked tweets about Donald Trump preventing Muslims from entering the United States and racists tweets about Barack Obama. There are more examples. This is a pattern, this is prejudice. Like everyone, he’s entitled to his opinions. Like everyone, he’s not above criticism.

Bobby Ryan is polite. Bobby Ryan scored a goal and got a kid a puppy. Bobby Ryan was kind to you when he posed for a photo at the grocery store. Bobby Ryan has done all of those things.

But Bobby Ryan is prejudiced and he’s made that pretty clear too.

Nothing is served by ignoring this pattern in Ryan’s behaviour. Equally, nothing is gained from refusing to interrogate how Ryan’s actions fit within the larger racist framework of professional sports in Canada and the United States. When playing the game the right way is so often code for playing the game within acceptable white standards of behaviour, we will continue to have players like Ryan maintain those standards, and continue to attack players like Newton and Subban who challenge such arbitrary norms.

 

 

Your Model Sucks

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No Fancy Stats argument is actually about stats. A statistic is a number that (theoretically) represents reality, and you can’t argue about reality1. Mark Borowiecki has a 5-on-5 score-adjusted CF% of 44% this season. Can’t argue with that. Patrick Wiercioch has 3 points this season and Erik Karlsson’s got 51 points this season. Can’t argue with that.

Analytics arguments are actually (#ACTUALLY) dissecting what these numbers mean in terms of player evaluation and future performance. These are questions without easy answers2 and really more about one’s philosophy and biases than they are about actual mathematics. This is why participants in a #fancystats argument mostly end up sounding like 3rd year undergraduates trying to nail the 5% class participation mark. This isn’t math class, it’s philosophy class.3

All this to say I’m not here to talk about stats. I’m here to talk about models, which are like stats only worse. Let me explain…

Ed note: This post is about to get wild nerdy. I don’t know how to prevent this. Turns out one can’t talk about their personal philosophy of phenomenological modelling without sounding like a huge dork. So it goes.

In a perfect world, you would describe and make predictions about all physical phenomena by applying the prescribed laws. Physicists love doing this. Physicists write down some laws, solve some differential equations, and boom there’s General Relativity. Very few things ever work out this nicely. Most things worth studying contain too many moving parts to accommodate well-defined system behaviour. The real world is messy. This is where models come in.

A model takes inputs, does math to the inputs (to use the technical term), and then spits out an an output that looks hopefully looks like reality. A good model should help us make inferences about the relationship between Things. However, and this is very important to always bear in mind, just because a model looks like reality does not mean that it is necessarily a good stand-in for reality. This is the origin of the expression from the statistician George Box, “All models are wrong, some models are useful.”

Which brings me back to the intentionally inflammatory title of this post: your model sucks. It does. It is in the very nature of modelling that a model is an imperfect representation of reality. Therefore, if a model is to be taken seriously, I believe that the ways in which it is imperfect must be both qualitatively and quantitatively stated (and if your default position is to say “It’s just because of variance”, I will personally wish for you to be haunted until the end of your days by the ghost of Ludwig Boltzmann.)

There is another philosophical question that must be answered, which is “What is this model for?”. Is it meant to be a descriptive model (and if so, why is it necessarily better than examining raw inputs?), or is it a predictive/evaluative model (and if so, just how predictive is it?). There’s a couple of models floating around out here, and it’s not always clear what supposed to be for.

Let’s look at the much-ballyhooed dCorsi. From Stephen Burtch’s post, “dCorsi represents the unexplained residual portion of Corsi results observed for a given skater in a given season.” which is to say it’s the difference between The Fancy Model and Reality. Even if dCorsi is repeatable (its year-over-year R-squared is about 0.15), all that would really mean is that the model is wrong in some consistent ways, which I would find worrying if it was my job to apply the model. I would rather just use dCorsi as a way to quantify the error bars on the model outputs. I think it’s difficult to properly use something like dCorsi as an evaluative tool when it is literally just an expression of what you don’t know.

Then there is this:

In general I feel like weird results such as this, where Brad Marchand has a Goals Above Replacement per 60 that is 50% higher than Patrick Kane, or where John Tavares and Jack Eichel have worse dCorsis than Zac Rinaldo really say much more about the model in question than they do about the player being modeled. It’s tough for me to read this post without coming away with the impression that the values from this Expected Goal model should have some big goddamn error bars on them. Merely posting something that basically says “Aaaaaaay, look how much better Brad Marchand is than Patrick Kane.” is slightly absurd because Brad Marchand is not a better hockey player than Patrick Kane. If anything, this tweet is best understood as an illustration of how much work on these types of models still need to be done4.

Not every deep truth about sports has to be couched in some sort of Gladwellian counter-intuition. Sometimes your model just sucks. I need to know why and by how much if I’m ever going to use it.

1. Ok just work with me on this one.↩

2. Don’t @ me.↩

3. Good example: Do secondary assists matter? Answer: it depends! Speaking of secondary assists, we here at Welcome to your Karlsson Years dot com would like to bestow the Lifetime Achievement Award in Petty Hating to Tyler Dellow for his 2012 piece (which sadly no longer exists on the internet) in which he examined every single one of Erik Karlsson’s assists in an attempt to de-legitimize EK’s point totals. You did it, boo! (You can read Travis Yost’s response here.) ↩

4. I believe Zack Lowe’s amazing piece on the Toronto Raptors’ player tracking department is an excellent indication of how much more data (i.e. a ludicrous amount of data) modelers will need before useful models can be created for hockey. Until then, I’ll settle for some big ol’ error bars on this stuff.↩

The Hater’s Guide to Week 18

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This is a weekly feature that takes an uncharitable look at the Senators’ upcoming opponents.

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Me, pulling off bangs (not pictured: you, shoving extensions under your bowl cut)

Tuesday, February 2 – Senators @ Penguins

Okay campers, rise and shine, and don’t forget your booties because it’s cold out there today! It’s cold out there every day. What is this, Miami Beach? Nope! It’s western Pennsylvania, where the only thing less appealing than the weather has been the Penguins’ performance this season. The Penzos find themselves coming out of the All-Star break barely hanging on to the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, which is the kind of position you might shoot for if you’re some middling, budget-ass team, but a disappointing outcome when you’re spending to the cap and your top three forwards make more than most Kuwaiti princes.

As seems to happen every year, people are already wondering whether it’s time to blow up the top-heavy Pingus and start over. Crosby’s not getting any younger, after all, so maybe it’s time to sell high on Malkin and use the return to start building a good young core rather than keep papering over holes in the roster with Cullens and Hagelins and Boninos. Besides, who’s ever gotten less than fair value trading a first-line centre for a package? Oh, right, everyone. Still, it’s fair to say that unless the Pingpongs shake things up somehow, they’ll keep finding themselves on the bubble of playoff contention every year, reliving the same thing over and over and over. Can you even imagine?

PREDICTION: All but three players in this game just spent a week off in the sun, so expect to see the kind of well-rested, tanned hockey you’d find in an energy drink commercial. Look for a lot of talk about how the Senators need to start winning in a hurry to get back in the hunt, and for Mark Stone to respond with 7000 goals. Senators 5, Penguins 0.

Thursday, February 4 – Senators vs. Oilers

Winning the lottery isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. It’s unrealistic to expect anyone who’s not used to being wealthy to suddenly know how to handle having everything all at once. It’s hard not to fritter money away when you really have no concept of what things are worth. So you keep on living the way you’re used to, making the same ill-considered decisions, never thinking about the bottom line and never developing a long-term plan. You make bad investments. You don’t even recognize the grifters and hustlers who act like your friends but swindle you at every opportunity. Before long you find yourself struggling under the constant weight of the expectations of those around you, slowly realizing your winnings are less of a gift than a curse.

This is the scenario the Oilers find themselves in during Year Million of their lottery-financed rebuild. The Oilers are like that trailer with the shiny, expensive powersports vehicles parked all over the lawn, the team with more toys than thoughtfulness, the team that randomly picks up someone like Eric Gryba because what the hell, ain’t got one of those yet. Meanwhile, the locals get more disgusted every year with how little good they’ve done for the community with their winnings. Into this void steps Connor McDavid. Sure, he’ll be excellent, but turning this team around requires more. It requires a conversation about basic asset management and personal responsibility, like telling a Powerball winner, “Hey, maybe don’t leave $50K in your glove box if you don’t want your truck broken into in a strip club parking lot. In fact, maybe don’t go to the strip club in the first place?” Except they’ve already tuned you out, thinking about the next ATV they’re going to get. Good luck, Connor.

PREDICTION: Oilers fans always seem to be well-represented at Senators home games these days, because who doesn’t like 80s nostalgia? Look for Connor McDavid to be narrowly denied a goal for the Oilers but for Eric Gryba to be responsible for at least two for the Senators. Senators 5, Oilers 0.

Saturday, February 6 – Senators vs. Leafs

Over the break I saw a few Leafs fans on Twitter do the math to figure out how many second-half wins the worst-record-in-hockey Leafs would need to make the playoffs, before coming to terms with the fact that, you know what? It probably isn’t happening this year. I feel for you, Leafs fans. There were about five minutes there where the Leafs had enough of a spark that you could be forgiven for thinking that Mike Babcock might actually be the miracle worker you’d heard about. But then before you know it, it’s February, you’re back in the lottery, and Jonathan Bernier has a GAA that would make even a fifth starter for the Red Sox blush.

Some say Senators fans may be coming to terms with a similar reality in two weeks. Who’s saying this, you ask? Oh, you’ll know. They’ll tell you when you see them this Saturday, being ushered out of the CTC for trying to smoke indoors, their Clark and Gilmour jerseys yellowed with what’s hopefully beer. They’ll have signs, and halitosis, and loud opinions about Donald Trump. And they’ll treat a win in this game, if it does happen, as the nearest thing they have to a Stanley Cup victory, walking out holding their heads high with the tragic, misplaced dignity of a drunk who thinks he’s just won an argument. I would like to be at this game, handing out toothbrushes and distance education pamphlets. You have to be the change you want to see in the world.

PREDICTION: Turns out a Google image search for “Drake” + “leafs jersey” returns no relevant results. Wonder why? Senators 5, Leafs 0.

Season prediction record: 23-21-6

Next week: “Avalanche”? “Lightning”? Come on, those are fake names.

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