Roundtable of Death: The Passion of the Distaste for Peter Regin

Posted on April 11, 2013 by Varada

James

So after Tuesday’s undeserved and tide-turning face off penalty (ITS A GREAT PENALTY!!!) we can officially conclude that Peter Regin is straight up bad luck at this point, right? …Let’s retire the number 13 while we’re at it.

Imagine you’re Jim O’Brien, getting scratched game after game for a guy who has 3 assists on the year. Don’t get me wrong: despite a strong start, JOB isn’t exactly burning down the house with his 6 points and minus three, but what the hell is up with a supposed “skill guy” like Regin who hasn’t put up a point in weeks not getting an extended stay in the press box?

The nail in the coffin for me here is fucking MATT KASSIAN has more goals than him. The debate whether Regin is a top six *puts on giant novelty Mickey Mouse glove and does hand wanking motion* or a bottom six player is now over. 3 points and a minus rating with two and a half weeks left in the season shows you’re barely an NHL player. I know his stock was high as recently as the beginning of last season, and hey he looked good early on, but for me, when he went that one season with only 3 goals in 55 games he became more or less expendable. You can just go out on the free market and buy better production than that on the cheap. Or even better, if you’re the Ottawa Senators you’re in the position to just cut him loose and give one of your many depth players a try. Stephane DaCosta came up and put up a goal and an assist in less than 10 games. Is he NHL ready? I don’t know but again the greater question is, is Regin at this point? Could a Hugh Jessiman or Mark Stone not do what Regin is doing?

People didn’t give a FUCK when Bobby Butler was waived, or to a lesser extent when Foligno was traded. Foligno could hit hard, play centetr or wing, and he put up nearly 50 points last year! Butler spent much of last year in the box and still put up 6 goals and 10 assists, was a +8 and people were ready to burn that guy’s house down. What I’m saying is, Ottawa has parted ways with more productive players (and quicker) for less.

I wonder what the strategy is here? Is MacLean trying to light a serious fire under O’Brien until he gets to that Reginesque point of charging into his office and demanding to play? When Regin did it it was awesome. Full credit he was on fire in that game against Montreal and pretty much won it for Ottawa. The thing is it seems he can’t do that for more than one game in a row. Remember when Bobby Butler did the same thing vs. Calgary last year? Neither do I!

At 26 Peter Regin is still quite young and YES HE WAS GREAT IN THAT ONE PLAYOFF SERIES but that was in 2010. With the injuries this team has suffered this season I could see why Ottawa might want to keep the waivers to a minimum, but why he was kept over Daugavins is baffling to me. At least Dogman was durable. And that’s the other thing: If you like me believe Regin is a bottom six player at best, watching him get knocked about like a pinata game after game is not exactly endearing for a PK lunch pail guy. O’Brien has the wheels, a degree of touch and PK skills like Regin but with more durability and a modicum of toughness. As a fan, I expect to see JOB in against Philly on Thursday.

Much like Butler before him, I hope Regin can turn it around and wish him success but as per my feelings toward The Ballad of Bobby B last year, I’d much rather see him try to find his way somewhere else.

Varada

It seems to be like there are at least two tiers of expectations against which to assess Peter Regin’s putrid, awful, unwatchable season. The first expectation is that he’s a cheap depth guy, best suited to playing on the 3rd or 4th line, who won’t lose you hockey games. If that’s the case I can’t really disagree, though like you say James: it’s not like those guys aren’t plentiful in the NHL. Ottawa can swing a little bit more for the fences with its depth guys. It’s not like Regin is tough, agitates, or has much offensive upside these days.

The second set of expectations, and easiest to consider a failure, is that Regin is a number 1-2 centerman with puck possession skills ideal for Paul MacLean’s system. This has been pretty thoroughly disproved at this point.

Sometimes it was Regin starting the game as the team’s number one center when Spezza was hurt only to find himself on the fourth line so fast he would get whiplash (in favor of Smith for chrissake). Sometimes he’d be a supplementary winger. In any case, there’s something far more disturbing than his never becoming a top six player (which, ok let’s admit, is hard to do).

Check out these Relative Corsi ratings:

2008-2009 GP 11 RC 13.3

2009-2010 GP 75 RC 18.9

2010-2011 GP 55 RC 8.4

2011-2012 GP 10 RC 0.8

2012-2013 GP 27 RC -0.7

Now, that’s not all that bad – even the negative rating is near even, which means Regin is usually pushing the puck in the right direction, even playing with terrible, terrible linemates, and though never getting much in the way of point production. What’s more disturbing is the trend. That’s a good body of work right there, enough that sample size starts to get mitigated a little bit. As Regin has struggled through injuries, his effectiveness has seemed to slip, and is heading steadily southward. You might assume it’s his natural progression down the lineup into a marginal role, and his Time on Ice p/ 60 minutes has decreased, but only from between 11-12 minutes a night to about nine minutes this year. When he was having those great Corsi seasons, he was only enjoying two more minutes a night, at most. He also only started in the offensive zone about 7% more of the time.

In other words: not that much has changed about how Regin is being played, but he’s still getting worse. He’s not as terrible as I first thought, but he’s experiencing his worst season as a professional, and he’s trending downward. Why take a risk on that sort of player when you’re organization is stuffed with depth guys?

Of course there’s also his point production, which with his number of games played puts him in the arena of Tim Jackman, Tim Brent, and Ryan Reaves. Some of those guys only play about six minutes a night. Clearly this is disappointing for anyone expecting him to be 20 goal guy (<– actual prediction!)

It’s not that he’s a terrible fourth liner. It’s just that we don’t want him to be a fourth liner. At 26 he’s in what’s supposed to be his prime. He might rebound, sure, and his underlying numbers are enough that you can see why management would spend only $800k to bring him back for a year. But the years of monster Corsi possession now seem to be behind him.

I’d hate to see him rebound elsewhere. On the other hand, it just seems like a warm body in the lineup right now. I’d rather give that ice time to Mark Stone, Shane Prince, or Mike Hoffman and let them develop in the NHL.

Possible New Team Names To Use During the Losing Streak

Posted on April 10, 2013 by Varada

I wish.

The Frustrated Minors
The Frustrated Miners
The Sergei Gonchar’s Third Period Penalty Box Naps
The SportsClubStats “How Do Probabilities Work?” Confused Faces
The Ben Bishop Headbutts
The Craig Anderson Buttheads
The Brian Elliotts
The Antoine Vermette Just Cant Finish Singers
The High and Wides
The Home Stretch Gang
The Cardiac Kids (Not So Fun Edition)
The New New Edition
The Shitty Beatles
The Regular Beatles
The Erik Karlsson Skating Videos
The Remember the First Couple of Weeks of This Seasons
The Next Years
The OHH AHH Silfvermedals
The Penalty Killz
The This Is How It Feels To Be Spoiled By Inspired Play During a Rebuild and then a Rash of Long Term Injuries To Several Star Players
The David Rundblads
The Whats the Opposite of Peskys
The Sixth Lowest Payroll in the NHL, Less Than Columbus, Florida, and Winnipegs
The First Rounder for Chris Campoli, Who By The Way is Available Right Now for Nothings
The Conditional Seventh Round Picks
Peter Regin
The They Can Still Conceivably Do Its

James Day Preview: Ottawa Conacher$ Vs. Tampa Bay Bi$hop$

Posted on April 9, 2013 by worsteverything

Hi everyone!

It’s great to be back at the Apollo Theatre (internet)! Thank you for all your kind messages telling me to take all the time I needed on my vacation and that if I needed to stop making posts on this blog all together that I should feel that I have all your support. Thanks for cheering me on everyone!

While I was in Los Angeles I did a lot of research into how much extra money you need to give your average hockey star to play in Canada over California. Findings: Millions upon millions of dollars.

Additional note: I saw a total of one LA Kings shirt while I was there. This is especially interesting because I think that a solid 47% of the Los Angeles economy is based on souvenir t shirts. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN YOUR STANLEY CUP CHAMPION KINGS!!!

I’m sorry to see that Peter Regin was scratched every single game since I was gone. I mean that’s the only reason I can put together to explain why he still has the same 3 points that he had before I left. No, it’s true he was awesome in that one playoff series though.

WELP, time to talk about Bishop….not looking forward to facing him constantly going forward btw.
We #Sens (am i doing that right?) fans know better than anyone Big Ben is no whoever Tampa’s previous goalie was and that the boys are in tough against him. Watching him play over this past season knowing he would be dealt at some point made me repeatedly think about one thing: “It’s going to suck when when Ottawa has to face this guy when he plays for another team.” I have to admit I was pretty shocked when I heard the news that Bish had been traded to a team within the Eastern conference (and a team which will be a divisional rival starting next year). I suppose when you look at the return that Bry-Bry got I could see why he took this risk…which brings me to what I actually wanted to talk about…Cory Conacher. So Tampa fans were apparently shocked and subsequently bummed out to hear Conacher was dealt. I can relate. This guy is 2nd in the rookie scoring race. I don’t think I was the only one who was floored when I got news David Rundblad and a pick were moved for Kyle Turris. People still kind of act like that was a terrible trade even though Turris has been a contributor since he came here and Rundblad has 8 career NHL points. Sure Turris’ game has had some dry spots but consider Zack Smith would be the team’s no.1 centre without him this season. Anyway, Bishop will definitely be getting up for this game but so will Cory Conacher. If the last game was any indication of potential of that 89-93-33 line? That goal was an undeniable team effort. Zibby with the lunch pail dish from behind the net, Silfverberg with the patience to freeze up and pass to the waiting Conacher who’s snaked his way into the open space. I think one goal from one losing game is a large enough sample size for efkdja;ervl ngfvxbx/ Anyway, Zibanejad is tearing it up lately becoming quite the set up machine.

Are you there Papa Alfie? Its me, you haven’t put up a point in 6 games…come to think of it neither have you Sergei Gonchar…where do you think YOURE going Kyle “no points in 5 games” Turris?
Whats that Ottawa is mired in a losing streak and three of the team’s top 5 scorers are ice cold? Now I understand the problem of relying on a 40 year old forward and a 39 year old defenseman to be two of your top scorers. Are Alfie and Gonch running out of steam? If so that young guns line is going to have to be the new go to…which is also terrifying considering they barely get 15 mins a game each. As for Turris, chalk that up to him having to play over his head night in and night out this season. Spezza makes it look pretty easy I must say. Lets just hope that when Spezza returns we dont learn that these cold snaps are a hallmark of Turry’s game. Remember KT, times might be tough but cheer up you’re playing Tampa!
Oh, also, there are other guys on the team. Latendresse is due for a burger, ditto Wiercioch. This team has shown they can score and despite Andy’s 2 goals against on less than 20 shots or Lehner’s 2 goals in 12 seconds against Buffalo the goalies are still keeping the scores low enough to give Ottawa a chance in each game. The boys are going to have to capitalize on their opportunities particularly on the power play. On the DL, I’m hoping that the Sens can take advantage of a goalie that they’ve shot on in practice for a minute now. Lastly, keep in mind Bishop is still more or less a rookie netminder at the NHL level. He’s blown a couple of big games for the Sens. Hopefully tonight’s one of them. What? I have to stop wishing the guy well at SOME point. I want to see some playoff games damn it!

Stop toying with me – what’s it going to take to get us to the finish line?

Posted on April 8, 2013 by Varada

Weird times in Sens-land. Our spirits are crushed one night, and the next night we get these little sprigs of hope pushing up through the concrete.

At first it was that video of Jared Cowen practicing and throwing his weight around in the process. (Note to Cowen: maybe don’t nail one of our most consistent two-way players in practice, ok?) Could we see him return sooner rather than later? Then there was today’s video of Erik Karlsson skating oh-so smoothly around. Robot ankles from Sweden? He won’t be back, we know, but maybe…HE’LL BE BACK?

(No, he wont…unless he will be.)

[He won’t.]

Spezza was last seen lifting groceries into the back of his Honda Element in a FoodBasics parking lot, causing everyone to scream in protest. What’s Turris going on now, eight games without a goal?

But anyways, is the season dropping out from under us or what? Despite losing four in a row, including games against the Buffalo Fucking Sabres and Florida Fucking Panthers, Sportsclubstats (daily viewing this time of year) has Ottawa’s post-season chances only dipping 3.2% to 94%. Not quite the absolute certainty of the 98%+ chances we’ve been enjoying lately, but all the same: if the ship isn’t turned around soon we’re going to start seeing those scary 10% drops in probability happening really, really soon.

Tampa is up next, and they’re no pushover. They’ll have a motivated goalie, all of their leading scorers, plenty of grit, and their defense…well, their defense sucks, but so does the Florida Fucking Panthers’ and they just beat us.

There’s only ten games left in the Senators’ season, and they need to get at least 9 out of a possible 20 points before their chances of making the playoffs drop from the mid-90% range into the 80% range.

In that span they play, in order: Tampa, Philly, New Jersey, Boston, Carolina, Washington, the Leafs, Pens, Washington again, and Philly again. Five games at home, five on the road.

First of all: thank Christ they only play Boston once. That will be a loss. They play the Leafs on a Saturday night at home, so you know that will be a loss too. Everyone else, including the Pens if they still don’t have Crosby, are beatable, but now all bets are off. Throwing away points against the Buffalos and Panthers of the world means the team has to beat decent spoilers like Tampa, Washington, or Philly. If you figure the team loses at least a couple of those games on the road (where Ottawa stinks), it means having to take at least the home games against the Caps and Flyers.

Ottawa can do it. They’ve done it against all odds this season. But the road to the end of the season is going to be a bumpy one.

A good start might be Anderson shaking off the rust (welcome back Andy now RETURN TO VEZINA FORM IMMEDIATELY); Lehner getting angry again even though he doesn’t have to play third fiddle to Bishop (“paging Lehner’s father issues” [Alfredsson’s father issues might do in a pinch]); Turris waking up Home Alone style to find the team left on the road trip without him and then catching up with them in Tampa; finding the ghost of Zach Smith’s scoring touch; and finally, we could stop playing Peter Regin and Matt Kassian under any circumstances whatsoever.

Or, in a happy reversal of fortune…maybe all of the above? If not, we might find ourselves clinging to an improbable Karlsson return to save our season. I’ve been through this with Hasek; I’d prefer if the team just stopped losing completely winnable games.

It was the best of times…it was the BLURST of times???

Posted on April 4, 2013 by Varada

Allllllllright, Ottawa traded Ben Bishop, he of genial giantism and excellent goaltending, and who was previously acquired for a 2nd round pick, for Cory Conacher and a 4th round pick. I will take this over the usual “2nd round pick for Andy Sutton” ilk any day of the week.

Reaction to this one is a bit of a pendulum: early on it was all “Tampa Bay GM Steve”…Yzerman? Whyzerman? Never heard of him…”gave up way too much for the ephemeral and nebulous experience that is NHL goaltending” or “CONACHER AWESOME.” Bishop could be a starter, or he could never play again. Keep in mind that this is the man who gave up two 2nd round picks and a third round pick for Anders Lindback, who had also never been a starter. (Fun Fact: If one sat on the other’s shoulders under a giant trenchcoat, the combined Lindback / Bishop freak would be fourteen feet tall and three thousand pounds.)

Now the pendulum is swinging back the other way: did Conacher benefit from playing with a generational talent in Stamkos? Are his possession stats and zone starts a cause for concern? (Yes.) Is he having an outlier season for an undrafted and tiny forward? Did we actually get hosed? Tampa paid nothing for Conacher and got a good season out of a rookie. And they parlayed that into a guy who could end up their starting goaltender, a guy who has outright won games for Ottawa that Ottawa had no right winning.

This is what swinging for the fences looks like in Ottawa. Most teams throw a huge number of years and money at a player with only a year or two left in their prime. Ottawa trades what amounts to a 2nd round pick for one of the best rookies of the year and hopes it’s not a fluke. I don’t really mind this when you consider that it fits the long term plans of the club, the prospect cupboard is full, and Murray basically had to trade Bishop anyway. What was he going to do–pay him RFA money to maybe not play at all? It’s a risk, sure, especially when you consider that Bishop could have been the cornerstone in any number of bigger trades, but it could have also been WAY worse. Ottawa held on to their 1st round pick; they kept all of their premier prospects; and they didn’t trade for Marian Gaborik.

The problem with Conacher is that he’s here to score, and score only. He can’t be conveniently demoted down the lineup and play a checking role if his scoring touch goes cold . He needs to finish, and finish consistently. His shooting percentage this season is a ridiculous 17% (which is actually less than his shooting percentage last year in the AHL, if you can believe that), but you can’t help but wonder if we’re on a train to regression town.

Whatever. It’s a risk, but I’d much rather risk a goalie for a forward than the other way around. Goaltending is a mystery wrapped in a pastry gone cold. (Think about it.) Remember Vermette for Leclaire? I wish Bishop all the best; he seemed like a really great team guy and is in his prime. He gets to play with some big names in Tampa.

RELEASE THE LEHNER.

Bonus Grab Bag: Trade Deadline Edition; Volume 1, Issue 2: “The Deadening (A Rope of Sand)”

Posted on April 2, 2013 by Varada

So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

Playoff Chances and First Round Match-ups

Sure, that 4-0 beating laid on us by the Leafs over the weekend smarted. No, it more than smarted; it was humiliating the way only the Leafs can humiliate the Sens when playing a nationally televised game on a Saturday night. But hey, it was Hockey Night in Canada, and I’d bet the Sens’ overall record on Saturday night games against the Leafs is desperately low. ANYWAY, take solace: all of this could end up working in Ottawa’s favor.

As of today, Boston has a 53% chance of starting the playoffs as the fourth seed, though they also have a 30% chance of overtaking Montreal for the division lead. Ottawa is pretty much split, with a 43% chance of starting the season as the fifth seed and a 41% chance of starting as the sixth seed. They share this scenario with the Leafs (42% fifth seed, 43% sixth seed). And who’s that locked down in the weird, vortex-y third seed that goes to the terrible Southeast? WINNIPEG. Terrible goaltending / thin-ass forward depth / tiny payroll Winnipeg.

I know who I’d rather face in the first round, even if an Ottawa-Winnipeg first round would generate all sorts of small-town Canada jokes and receive a modicum of coverage next to a Center-of-the-hockey-universe, first-playoff-game-in-eight-years Toronto v. Big Bad Bruins w/ a side of Kessel drama.

As an aside, I have to say: it’s almost nice to see Toronto enjoy a young, exciting player like Kadri. They drafted him, developed him, and now it’s paying off. I don’t think that’s happened in all my years of watching hockey.

All this to say: go Leafs go? You can have the Bruins. For me, the Bs are a worst-case scenario; I’d rather face almost anyone else, but if it was the Jets it would be like waking up on Christmas morning.

Calgary Rebuild is finally happening

After receiving peanuts for probably the best player in franchise history, Feaster got a pretty good return for Bouwmeester last night. A first round pick in this very deep draft from a team that is probably going to have a mid-round pick is a good haul. Even if St. Louis makes the playoffs, it’ll be against Chicago or Anaheim and I don’t see them pulling that off. If they don’t make the playoffs, Calgary gets next year’s 1st rounder, which could be even more intriguing. St. Louis is a poor team with a huge number of quality players to re-sign this off season. You could see them returning a much inferior squad next year, in which case, who knows where that 1st will land? The gambler in me (presuming this gambler was also a Flames fan) would almost root for the Blues to miss the post-season so you could wait and see where that next pick is going to land.

On a related note, Feaster continues on his streak of demanding third-tier prospects in return. One of the prospects he received back is an older goaltender who isn’t even qualified yet. Either his scouting department is on some Rain Man, experimental jazz trip, or they’re using NHL 2013 like I am.

Also interesting: by trading two of its players, Calgary went from a top five payroll team to 16th.

Buffalosers

Good to see Buffalo also come out blinking into the sunlight after their long period of acting like spending money turns you into a contender. I’m starting to think that trade deadline day is going to consist of watching Buffalo come apart at the seams. They haven’t received much of value yet (two 2nd rounders, starting next year? So, two players who you’re 5-6 years from even glimpsing in the pros?), but I’ll be very interested to see what they can get for Miller, Vanek, and Pominville. They could end up setting the market.

Oh, I guess this is an Ottawa blog

What should Ottawa do at the deadline, anyway? Well, considering how quickly any players of consequence are being snatched up, I can’t imagine Bryan Murray swinging for the fences on this one, and I desperately hope he doesn’t part with that 1st rounder. The best player I think Ottawa can hope for is a familiar face: Jason Spezza or Jared Cowen coming back in time for the playoffs. This deadline day was already going to be a boring one, but I think it might be especially so for Sens fans.

Weekend Grab Bag: Jesus Walks Edition

Posted on March 28, 2013 by Varada

So, this is a thing I found on the internet.

The long weekend is here FUCKING FINALLY which means it’s time to spend enormous amounts of time on our smartphones while family members talk in the direction of our heads. Let’s get started!

The Iginla Trade

I know Iggy had the hammer on this one with his no trade clause, and maybe it just came down to him knowing that the Penguins had an offer on the table and refusing to waive his clause for anyone else, but this seems like an awfully low return for what was supposed to be the best rental on the market. Two college players, neither of whom have played pro at any level, one of whom is a former third round pick and the other a former fifth? Both Agostino and Hanowski have good numbers in the NCAA, but neither have what the race-horse-minded might call pedigree, or were ranked particularly highly on Hockey’sFuture AKA what people without scouting departments look at. Plus, they’re both wingers, so you’re not building from any particularly foundational position—goaltender, or puck-moving defenceman, or first line playmaking center, for example.

Perhaps the weirdest is that they dealt their best hand well before the trade deadline. There was no waiting to see if the offers might sweeten, no playing one party off of the other until the bitter end. It seems unfair to say this was botched, but it certainly is underwhelming. One gets the sense that maybe, to their credit, Calgary wanted to end the uncomfortable situation for Iginla as soon as possible.

One hopes that if this really is the start of a Calgary rebuild that they keep going—convince Kipper to accept a trade, send off Bouwmeester, Tanguay, and Cammalleri if they can, etc. Because they just traded their most cherished player for two guys who project as complementary wingers and a late first round pick, and that’s not going to do it. We’re a long way from Atlanta trading a 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd round pick along with a roster player for Keith Tkachuk.

Update: great reads about this trade here and here.

The Trade Deadline

Why do the networks keep doubling down on this disappointing spectacle? TSN and Sportsnet are ramping up, as if any of us really plans to watch their networks from 8am until 3pm to see a panel endlessly debate why team X traded a 3^rd round pick for depth player Y. Morrow and Iginla are already traded; Getzlaf, Perry and Semin have re-signed. Most teams think they’re still in it, except for Florida, whose big trading chips are all hurt. We’re looking at a deadline day where the big trade may be Mike Rebeiro or Matt Cullen—though both of their teams are at least in the hunt and will probably stand pat. Despite all this, the networks are running epic, slo-mo commercials in which they display their armies of analysts, ready to spring into action with insufferable rhetoric and hyperbole. I’m pretty sure at this point we could all just pick up a newspaper the next day and get what we need, or follow Bob MacKenzie’s Twitter if you really need to know about how Jagr’s negotiations are going in Dallas.

Meanwhile, in Ottawa, Murray doesn’t have any of those delicious 2^nd round picks he likes to trade at the deadline, but we are blessed with a semi-interesting GM who always surprises his fan base. I’m sure he and Tim Murray have their eye on at least one or two Turris-like players—young enough to play on an upcoming club and be a part of the future, and worth giving up substantial assets for. Any late 1^st rounder who the Murrays pick at the draft this summer would be 3-4 years away from playing, and then another 1-3 years from hitting their prime, which is probably past when Ottawa wants to be competing anyway. So maybe they could package that 1st with Bishop and get a quality player. Or maybe we’ll do what we did at the start of Free Agency last year and go, “who the hell is Mike Lundin?”

Eugene Melnyk is still an idiot

Can’t say I’d act much differently if I was a billionaire who owned a sports team, and so had an open invitation to show up on any Toronto radio show I wanted, but man is this guy an embarrassment for the franchise. I wrote earlier how Euge has to be made to see how this conveys an impression of Ottawa as a small time market full of obsessed hockey fans and media, who, like most Canadian markets, are more difficult to play for and impossible to please. Stuff like this makes me shake my head that we ever thought Corey Perry was going to sign with an Ontario team. Why wouldn’t he take big money, the extra year on his contract, and the chance to play somewhere warm and not insane (or insane for different reasons) like Anaheim? You don’t see their owner embarrassing everyone associated with him on the radio.

Eugene. Stop it, man. Just stop it.

The Southeast

You’ve got to feel for Thrashers fans (they existed, I’m sure of it) who waited it out and waited it out and never lived through a simultaneous Carolina / Washington swoon, which would have allowed them to ‘win’ the pathetic Southeast division and enter the playoffs as the third seed in the conference. Now Winnipeg—only four games over .500, and almost ten full points back of the 4^th place Boston Bruins—will enjoy home ice advantage, and probably against the Leafs. They’re going to make so much money during that playoff series. They’re at least six points up on their SE competition, which is pretty insurmountable with only about 15 games left, so they can probably shell out at the deadline for something—anything—to help out poor Andrej Pavalec.

Enjoy this, Winnipeg fans, because realignment is going to kick your ass.

Who’s Ottawa playing tonight?

The Rangers? Pfft. We got this.

Roundtable of Death: Which pending UFAs should BryMurr bring back? / spending other people’s money

Posted on March 25, 2013 by Varada

Varada

Daniel Alfredsson

Look, I think he’s lost a step. He’s missing wide open nets, giving the puck away, trying to beat younger men one-on-one with that puck-the-puck-off-the-boards-then-climb-over-the-guy thing he does but it’s not working anymore…he’s just not looking elite out there. He also still plays 20 minutes a night, on the penalty kill and the power play, in all crucial situations, and carries himself like a consummate professional. The tangibles and intangibles are ridiculous, and I fear this team’s post-Alfie experience. Obviously I’d resign him, and I’d even do so at a premium to make up for the fact that he only made $1MM salary this year–half of which he lost to the lockout. That’s right, Alfie made $500,000 this year. If he’ll have us for another year, we should have him.

Guillaume Latendresse

Like you said in an earlier post, James, we’re starting to see what this guy can go. He looks like a legit top-six forward, even with is sluggish skating, and if he’s willing to take another bonus-heavy contract to mitigate the fact that he’ll spend most of the season injured, I think why not? It can’t cost the team much more than what they’re paying now. If anything, he can be had for cheaper.

Peter Regin

Apologies to Steven, who loves this man for reasons I cannot understand, but Regin is fast becoming the new Jesse Winchester: a guy who will get to say he played in the NHL for a bit, and for a brief, brilliant moment, was placed on the first line with some real stars. I’d be curious even to see if Regin gets picked up by another club.

Sergei Gonchar

I think we all knew when I proposed this article that this is basically what I was talking about. Gonchar’s looked awesome for pretty much the first time since he was signed, making the kind of simple, intuitive plays that you expect from a veteran. If he wants to play another year in the NHL – and I think this year is demonstrating that he’s able – someone will sign him. If he doesn’t want to play for the Islanders or Panthers, though, he should consider taking a one year extension along with Alfie. Ottawa is still 1-3 years away from having to extend their rookies to big money contracts, so they can afford Gonchar. And if this year is any indication, depth-especially on the back-end- is king. The other reason? Look at the UFA market for d-men. Who else are you going to sign if you need to? 38 year old Roman Hamerlik?

Mike Lundin

He never really got his chance in Ottawa due to his own injuries, but when he has played he’s been slotted on a lower pairing. Not a great thing when you consider that your ice time is being given to young AHLers like Gryba and Wiercioch. Lundin should probably be a casualty of the depth chart, even if he’s cheap as hell. Also, look at his CORSI numbers: he hasn’t been driving puck possession, which is a problem when you’re supposed to be a hybrid puck-mover.

Andre Benoit

You feel for Beniot, too, because he’s an older, career AHLer who’s finally found a club who will play him. He’s cheap, he’s effective, and he’s playing MacLean’s system well. Look at his CORSI relative to Lundin’s: he’s playing well. I would re-sign Benoit, especially if he’ll accept a two-way contract, though if he’s earned the right to demand anything at this point it’s probably a one-way contract and a chance to play a full season. Not sure if he’ll survive camp, but there are worse things than occasionally scratching a guy who only makes $650k a year.

Ben Bishop

Ah, the other key question. Much like Ottawa’s defensive depth has been a savior, so too has been having three outstanding goaltenders. I know Bishop is the natural player to be moved – he’s 26, and he’s at the height of his value, but he’s also a restricted free agent without a ton of leverage. I like Andy a lot, but who can you get more for on the trade market? Andy was playing Vezina hockey earlier, and makes far more money. I’d rather see Bishop re-signed and the reins handed to he and Lehner.

James

Daniel Alfredsson

Alfie gimme ooone more chaaaaace. I agree Alfie’s game has diminished a little but my observation is that’s only noticeable some games, not all. With certain stretches of the season’s compressed schedule often serving up as many as 4 games a week, it’s not crazy to see him look a bit gassed some games. Asking a 40 year old, even of Alfie’s fitness and ability level, to play as many minutes as 23 year old Kyle Turris is a model I can’t believe is working. I accept some speed bumps here and there. Hiccups aside, Papa Alfie looks a little older but all things considered, only a little. I think he comes back next year and for the love of Jesus Murphy hope he gets to play reduced minutes in an 82 game season. Team has all sorts of cap space and you know he wont even ask for much salary. Lastly, if the team does end up getting two clearly defined lines going next season, I don’t think its crazy to think he could play till 41. Bibi hear our prayer.

Bill Lantendresse

Given the avalanche of injuries (including his own) exposing the importance of depth I think Ottawa could use all the top six players they could get next year. Frankly, Milan Michalek freaks my shit out at this point. We’re looking at 15 games service from him this year. He’s a Spezza type guy where it looks like some time missed is basically a guarantee but the skill is worth hanging on to. Anyway, Lantendresse ain’t exactly Tony Starks or anything either but he’s a left winger who’s fast proving he’s still a top six player and at this stage of his comeback I think can still be had on the cheap. As for his lack of foot speed, I’ll be concerned as soon as I see it as a factor that hurts the team. As long as he keeps doing his thing in the crease I think he’s got a style of play that’s really working. Besides Ottawa’s seen success in the past with one if not the slowest top six left winger in the league (Heatley, Danii). Say yes to the Latendresse. I’d give him a year or two at the same 2MM rate.

Peter Regin

I put one of my trademark smartass polls on twitter this weekend asking who would score goal numero uno of the season first: Peter Regin or Eric Gryba. A lot of people replied that it would be “hilarious” if Gryba did. Not so sure how hilarious that ended up being when it actually happened. As Ottawa fans that have followed Regin’s career we know his game has its strong points and lot of potential but Im sick of watching Daugavins and Obrien get scratched for this guy. After watching him get batted around like a ball of yarn against Tampa on Saturday I think he’s played himself off the team…and with only 3 assists and a -2 rating in 23 games, he could find himself in the KHL next year.

Sergei Gonchar

This one is really tough because I don’t know how smart it is to re-sign Gonchar. I also just doubt it will happen on Gonchar’s side of the table. I think it’s pretty safe to say he’s going to want 2 years and a good amount of money. You have to love his play. He’s kept this team alive on the back end in King K’s absence. HE LEADS THE TEAM IN POINTS FOR GOD’S SAKE. But let’s please all of us remember that as young as Sergei is playing he will be 39 in 19 days. Going with the extremely reasonable assumption that it will take 2 years to get him to sign in Ottawa again, don’t come running to me when you’re ripping your hair out at watching a 41 year old Gonchar on the back end. I think instead we acknowledge Sergei played a huge role in keeping the season alive, we let him know we should have told him we loved him more and let him sign that overpriced one year deal that he will only sign in Pittsburgh (who I HAAAATE btw). I wish I could Freaky Friday Gonchar and Phillips’ contracts.

Frozen Dinner Mike Lundin

Sorry Homer, I am just your memory. I cannot provide you with any new information at this time. I think Borowiecki gets his shot next year and bumps Lundin. Boro is young, tough and if you ask me has a bit of an underrated pass. I sincerely hope Lundin lands a job somewhere but I think it’s time for more of the kids who can likely play a comparable game to get some experience.

Andre Benoit

I would definitely love if Ottawa gave this guy a long term 2 way deal. Like, make him the indefinite captain of the Binghamton Senators a la Denis Hamel before him. People have their issues with him but like with Gryba, these guys were given a pretty unreasonable amount of responsibility. Benoit has a very heavy shot for and doesn’t get manhandled too bad for a small defender. A guy I’d love the Sens to have on speed dial for a call up. If he can get a one way from another team though, that’s great for him.

Ben Bishop

I think he’s done a great job but I’m not about to say I want to see him play over Craig Anderson. I know I’ve long been of the “let Lehner spend a few years in the AHL whats the rush?” opinion. But my opinion’s changing here. If one goalie has to be moved I am actually quite comfortable with the idea of Lehner being an NHL back up. The last couple of games have shown some shades of RAWbin Lehner but I think he could handle the backup role well, even excel being eased into the league. With Anderson’s injury, Lehner hasn’t exactly been given the easy teams in his starts. Gotta love the rookie as the go-to starter against Boston. In a perfect world I would keep all three (doi I want all the toys!) but if that’s not feasible Anderson and Lehner are the guys I hang onto. Ottawa finally has a goaltender who’s putting up Vezina numbers I’m not about to say ‘move the guy.’ Please send Bishop as far away geographically as possible and to a team that plays with extra large nets. Les Numeros:

Craig Anderson	15	22	1.49	459	.952	2	8	4	2	884	58:58
Robin Lehner	8	17	2.05	283	.940	0	3	1	4	497	62:14
Ben Bishop	10	25	2.62	318	.921	0	6	4	0	573	57:19

James Day Preview: Ottawa Lehnators Vs. Blahston Brewin’s

Posted on March 21, 2013 by worsteverything

Robin Lehner’s Dreams depicted by Gummy Bears. Also, the word Gummy, ladies and gentlemen.

It’s time for everyone’s FAAAAAAAAAAVORITE game, *drumroll* Ottawa Vs. Boston. Not only do the Bruins routinely hand Ottawa their lunch the bonus is THEY ARENT EVEN FUN TO WATCH! So…ENJOY THE GA– I guess I should talk about the game a bit.

This is our mantra for tonight: Win One For the Lehner.
I’m going to spare you the numbers. Yes, the Senators have been absolutely owned by this club but this is why Copernicus invented horse races right? I just wish the visiting horses werent in the same division and didn’t play that snooze fest of a system. Though Ottawa’s struggled over the past few seasons against Boston and though this B’s team is much the same (thanks for adding Seguin and Hamilton Brian Burke!) Ottawa’s team is quickly changing; particularly in net. Gone are the days of starting Elliot/Gerber/LeClaire/Infinity against President of the Republic of New Freeland Tim Thomas. I know Lehner’s shutout a year ago and shootout loss is pretty thing ground to rest such hefty hopes on but even as a rookie he has shown he’s not rattled by the history surrounding this match up….unless it goes to shootout. Either way, though SensKilla Thomas is currently hiding in his New Freeland bunker incumbent B’s starter Ttuukkaa Rraasskk is 4 and 0 lifetime against Ottawa. There is still much work to be done if this periodic curb stomping is to become a proper divisional rivalry. As it stands we’re Boston’s Buffalo. Whats that? oops correction, bad analogy Buffalo is everyone’s Buffalo. Sorry.

Are you there hockey gods? Its me Marg Methot
As great as it was to see Ottawa go down a man and still manage to pull out an improbable win by mounting a 4 goal comeback in the 3rd period to defeat the Islanders. but that was then, this is now, this is ~~Stouffer’s~~ Boston. I’m as relieved as any Sens fan to hear that Methot’s injured knee is not of a Michalek level and that he’s day to day. Hopefully he’s not the Craig Anderson type day to day. The Senators rally on Tuesday night was an inspired performance combined with a dash of puck luck (Zibby’s clear high stick, kicked in goal by NY actually called off) against what was a surprisingly tenacious Islanders team. The end result of that game had me thinking, “Okay they took this one but how’s Ottawa going to fare missing Methot for successive games?” He’s been sometimes quietly, sometimes hipcheckingly stalwart for Ottawa since arriving Methot will be missed if even for a couple of games. As luck would have it Mike Lundin is back from what I thought would be a season ending concussion given his history and the ferocity of the dirty hit he suffered. We know that Marc Methot Lundin is not but for me I’m not so much concerned about him filling Marc’s shoes but rather how Lundin will look out there. Players returning to action after getting their bell rung like that tend to look pretty off for the first several games back . He’ll start the game on the bottom pairing with Eric Gryba. Also of note: May the hockey gods have mercy on our souls.
GET WELL MARC METHOT WE WISH YOU TO HURRY THE FUCK UP AND GET WELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Alexandre Dangle, Wesley Snipe, Git-R-Done
Lehner will indeed be the Sens biggest factor in hanging in against the Bears but Ottawa has something going for them that they did not in their last match up with Boston: Scoring.
When these two teams last met, it was one of those tough outings where you get a great goaltending performance but they boys just cant seem to pot that extra one to seal it.
Since then, we’ve seen a lot of players get their groove back. Kyle Turris has really started heating up as has Silfverberg, Alfie, and Zibanejad. Ottawa is also enjoying increased support for the back end too with Wiercioch currently riding a hot streak and Gonchar emerging as the Daniel Alfredsson of defence. Wiercioch and Gonch are in tough tonight as the first pairing.

Smoove Jimmy’s Keys to Victory: Use the speed and power of players like Zibanejad and Greening to bully their way into Fortress Boston. Also, dont go to a shootout.

Secret Wish:
I want to see Brad Marchand get absolutely wallpapered…because it never frigging happens. That guy has such a face for punching….

Wednesday Musings: Answer Me These Questions 3

Posted on March 20, 2013 by worsteverything

Is this something we might be seeing a little more of?

1. Yo this gon’ sound cray….but would you re-sign Gilliam Laundry?

Going into this year I was looking forward to seeing Guillaume Latendresse for the simple reason of wanting to have a chance to see what that looked like.
Like Kovalev before him it was straight up really hard to picture him in a Sens uniform.

Admittedly, Latendresse was never my favorite player. Gui and I got off to a bad start. The first I’d heard about him was when he was healthy scratched for his bad attitude during the World Junior Championship despite being one of the better players on the roster. From there I got to know him as, “Dude the Canadiens drafted and instantly have wayyyy too much faith in b/c he has the Frenchest name I’ve ever heard.” Don’t get me wrong, this is nothing against Francophone players or anything. In fact some of my best friends are Martin St. Louises! I’m just saying, the Habs organization does this. See current example Louis LeBlanc taken 18th overall from that HOCKEY FACTORY the Harvard Crimson. Where was I? Oh yeah, I’ve always thought of Latendresse as that guy the Habs rushed and who had conditioning issues, apparently clashed with the coaching staff and was ultimately traded away. I mean, being named Cultural Attaché of Montreal / the Canadiens and given 1st line minutes as a teenager would do anyone’s head in.

Speaking of heads getting done in…fast forward to lighting up half a season in Minny and then more or less missed two years due to hip injuries and bad concussions. The best thing I thought about his signing in Ottawa was that it was only for 1 year. I felt validated in a really shitty way when Tender Willy was already on the shelf after only 6 games. I pretty much wrote him off after that. Experiment failed. Right? Not so fast, Eddy (me). After being shot up with anti-headache medicine or whatever Latendresse has come back and you know what? He hasnt looked out of place clocking top 6 shifts. With 6 points in 11 games and the Sens Injured Reserve teaching me the true importance having over 400 players ready at all times if a club is to survive, GL is quickly making a case to stick around. There’s still some hockey to be played but for 2013-2014 I’m now starting to think I’m ready to Say Yes To The latenDRESSe. *dodges chair thrown at my face* With Colin Greening’s recent disappearance from planet Earth (seriously, that guy has had his moments this year but you forget he’s in the lineup a lot of nights) Gui has showcased that he can play the same net driving game but perhaps with a little more upside behind it. Keeping all current Sens regulars in the conversation some combination of this looks okay to me for next year:

Michalek – Spezza – Silfverberg

Latendresse – Turris – Zibanejad

Condra – Smith – Alfredsson

Daugavins – Greening – O’Brien – Varada – Kassian – Regin – Frozen Dinner – Neil

What think you? BTW Alfredsson is going to play next year. Let’s give the poor guy a FEW less minutes if we can. Also, even a 41 year old Alfie would tear up another team’s 3rd liners.

2. Are you all that pissed about the Sens not getting Corey Perry now that the whole scenario is over and done with?

I’m going start this off by saying, I would be the 2nd worst GM ever (see what i did there?). Maybe I’m just not used to Ottawa having a glut of valuable young assets but I am like a Mother Snake protecting all of her SensSnake Eggs from the Mongeese of Lower Egypt. Meaning: I get attached to certain players easily. Whenever I read trade proposals for Perry’s rights they always included Silfverberg or Zibanejad, other stuff and a 1st rounder. This is a very reasonable trade. But it’s not one I’d make. For me, I want Ottawa to be in a similar situation in a few years that Anaheim currently finds themselves in. That situation being “Holy shit how do we keep all of these amazing players that we’ve drafted?” I don’t know if you watched last night’s tilt against the Islanders but seeing Zibanejad and Silfverberg play together…I dont know….I’m starting to get a really, really good feeling about these guys. As was impressively predicted across the board, Silfverberg’s adjustment to the NHL was gradual but he is quite literally getting better and better each game. Which is saying something because I thought he’s been really solid since game 1. Zibanejad I find is starting to show his pedigree out there as well. He is looking dangerous on every shift. He has tremendous speed and skill with the puck but he also plays like bull. I know he’s getting protected minutes and all. Also, he’s 19 years old. Im pretty sure a little fella named Erik Karlsson got protected minutes in his first year. My ultimate point that I sometimes have to remind myself these guys are rookies with only around 30 games under their belts. If their pairing toward the end of last night’s game is any indication of things to come I cant wait to see them in 2 or 3 years. Am I saying we have two 50 goal scorers of Corey Perry’s ilk on our hands? No, very likely not but I do think we may have a couple of 20 plus scorers on the rise. I know I say this all the time but there’s a Corey Perry every year, every trade deadline, every off season. The rebuild’s not over yet. I’d love to see the organization wait on a few guys to develop before going shopping. I think it will be worth it.

3. Is P Regin P-much fucked now?

This guy! Cant catch a break. I’ll admit I went off on Regin hard in yesterday’s game preview but dude really is running out of season here and needs to start putting up some goals. So what happens yesterday? Fucking Matt Kassian scores in the first period. Dude got 3 and a half minutes ice time in that game! This is Dave Dziurzynski all over again. Dizzy tosses a wobbler at Carey Price FROM ABOVE THE CIRCLE and boom, goal. Regin is working out there. He looks good, he’s playing well enough but like I said yesterday if he cant pick it up over the next month its going to be tough for his agent to explain the viability of his client to Ottawa’s loaded bottom 6. Ostensibly Ottawa is the only NHL team that would be interested in his services as they are a little more in touch with his potential. Unless I’m wrong and there is a market for guys with a projected shooting percentage of zero. Real Talk: Despite rocking a minus rating and only six points total his closest competition in Jim O’Brien never the less holds onto 3rd place for number of goals scored so far this season. As my line combos from earlier indicate, even with the emergence of Condra this team aint exactly short on 4th liners and thats sparing Dizzy and DaCosta who’ve shown they can hang. MacLean has already made it clear that he hates Regin as a winger. You’d have to think that if he cant get it going soon coach might hate him as a centre too.

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