I wrote this yesterday, before Boston’s 3-1 win over a lethargic Senators squad, with the intention of posting it when playoff seeding was finalized. But now, with the real possibility that the Senators will face the Rangers if they lose in regulation to New Jersey and Washington wins their remaining game, I figured I should probably just post this thing so it’s not all for naught. I’ll write another 1700 words about the Rangers if need be. So here you have our Epic First Round Preview Which May Never Happen:

And lo’, did our Lord and Savior Bryan Murray in his 187^th year look upon what he had built and think: this is Good, or at the very least I expect us to be competitive and anything can happen in the playoffs and so on. For the Ottawa Senators were returned to the land of milk and honey, that place where it is rumored that each home date produces an additional million dollars in ticket revenue to say nothing of merchandise sales, and where people are compelled to descend upon James Street Feed Company so that they may drink beer from dirty taps and sup on a feast of deep fried somethings that do make one’s stomach churn mightily. And we did think back to the days of Cory Clouston and did weep at our foolishness. And we did laugh at the Toronto Maple Leafs and their fan base, who are cursed and rightly so, for they have not, nor will they, know such joy as playoff hockey.

But hark, the Beast that is before us is a strong and shitty one. Built for playoff hockey, armed with a defenceman that Ottawa spurned in favor of Wade Redden, and stacked from top to bottom with professional agitators, Murray knoweth this is probably the worst matchup for Ottawa. Hell, it’s bad for anyone. Even the better-ranked New York Rangers would be preferable. Our faith will be tested. But if we manage to stay awake on the bus ride out to Kanata we’ll give it our all and with laser pointers in hand will aim into the eyes of the Beast (Editor’s note: don’t actually do that.) and anyway we’ll be drunk.

Offense

Ottawa and Boston are ranked about as comparably as can be in goals-per-game, with Boston ranked third in the league at 3.18 and Ottawa fourth at an even 3. Boston’s 5-on-5 goals are a bit better at 1.32, which is again third in the league, compared to Ottawa’s 1.06, which is 10^th. Boston’s powerplay is ranked 14^th at 17.3% compared to Ottawa’s ninth at 18.5%–and that, ladies and gentlemen, is just about the only category you will find in which Ottawa has a statistical advantage over Boston. Boston is also ranked third in the league in shots per game, at 32.3 to Ottawa’s 31.3, good for ninth. Finally, Boston is the best team in the league in faceoff percentage. (Damn you Bergeron.) Ottawa is 15^th.

Which is to say that we’d better hope Ottawa’s recent struggles on the powerplay are temporary. Boston outmatches Ottawa in every regard at even strength, and their G/G averages are only close because Ottawa spent so much of the early season dominating with the man advantage. Milan Michalek’s otherworldly shooting percentage, which tumbled in the back half of the season, needs to pick up. Karlsson needs to heat up again and rack up assists, to say nothing of starting to score goals again. And the depth scoring—Greening, Smith, Condra, Neil, Foligno—need to get back to where they were early on, scoring timely if not frequent goals. But more than anything, so much more than anything that it needs to be stated again, the friggin’ powerplay needs to start clicking. If they go 0-for-9 or something, they’re a turkey dinner.

Boston will be missing Nathan Horton to injury, lost Michael Ryder to free agency and Mark Recchi to retirement. Otherwise they’ll have their scary forward depth at full power. Faceoff invincibility is assured by Patrice Bergeron and it flows from there with grit and skill throughout. Lucic and Krejci are representative of the team’s all-around two-way play and go-to-the-net-itude. Pest Marchand is prepped to make Gonchar make that baby-with-gas face he makes, and sophomore Stanley Cup-ring-having Tyler Seguin (FUCK, TORONTO, WHAT THE HELL) will return to see if he can occasionally score a hat trick. Players like Benoit Pouliot and Chris Kelly extend the skill and two-way excellence all the way down.

Ottawa will not be missing anyone other than Peter Regin, who’s been hurt since 1978, and potentially Bobby Butler, who will probably be scratched. They will also hope that Boston forgets that Jason Spezza, he of the point-per-game play, is in the game.

Defense

Obviously Tim Thomas and the Bruins have had Ottawa’s number all year. Thomas is 4-1 against Ottawa this season with a .932SV% and 2.41 GAA. He’s also a ridiculous 23-9-2 all time against the Sens, with a .937SV% and 1.98 GAA. Thomas has done nothing but consistently stonewall the Senators, so we’re obviously all hoping he tweaks his groin and Ottawa ends up facing Marty Turco instead.

In Ottawa’s end, the team has lived and died, and will continue to do so, with Craig Anderson. Though the team has some options with exciting young players in Robin Lehner (who earned the team’s only win against Boston with a shutout this season) and Ben Bishop, Anderson is the team’s starter. He, along with the team’s powerplay, will remain the biggest influence on this entire series. Will he be the Anderson who faces 40+ shots and steals the game? Or will he be the Anderson who allows a goal from center ice or gets all mopey-faced when he wanders out of his net and bobbles the puck? I think he can be a game-changer, not just someone who “gives the team a chance to win.” But he’ll have to outduel the reigning Vezina and Conn Smythe winner. Just keep Don Brennan away from him.

Team defense doesn’t look nearly so even handed as offense. Boston is sixth in the league with a 2.44 goals-per-game, and to find Ottawa you need to look waaaaaaaay down to 25^th and their 2.86. Boston is also 11^th in shots allowed per game at 29.6 and Ottawa is second worst in the entire league at 32.1. Perhaps surprisingly, Boston and Ottawa share similar penalty kills at 83.2% (11^th) and 81.9% (15^th) respectively. Also interestingly, Boston has the fewest overtime losses in the league with four compared with Ottawa’s 13^th place 10 OT losses. Not sure how much can be read into this, but it being the playoffs you know there will probably be some overtime played, and Boston has a tendency to get it done in the extra frame.

Boston may be missing the recently re-signed Johnny Boychuk, who is more important to that team than a lot of people realize, which is I guess is the scenario in preparation for which they picked up defensive depth in Greg Zanon. They also have this guy Zdeno Chara playing 30+ minutes a night, who is apparently pretty good, and Dennis Seidenberg, who is one of the league’s best shot-blockers. Ottawa will have to try and exploit their speed against a team that at times can look like a wall.

Some other interesting (depressing) statistics: Boston is first in the league in winning percentage when scoring the first goal at .853%, and first in the league in winning when leading after one period at a mind-bending 91.7%. (Ottawa is 17^th and 20^th respectively). The second best team (Philly) is at only 86.7%. It’s not even close.  Oh, and get this: Boston has won 100% of the games in which they were leading after two periods. Ugh. This team locks down like a motherfucker. Ottawa needs to get on the board early, and first. The cardiac kid routine isn’t going to work here.

The Senators’ defense is founded on Murray’s quasi-famous (in Ottawa at least) proclamation that the “other team should block our shots for a change,” which is why he let Anton Volchenkov go and signed the ghost of gnarly wizard Sergei Gonchar, who according to Wikipedia used to be one of the best puck moving defencemen in the league! Pretty cool. Erik Karlsson is running this shit at this point, dragging along his scrappy doghouse of veterans, giving Filip Kuba a good enough +/- to get him another contract and probably painting Chris Phillips’ house.

It’s sort of absurd to think that Ottawa’s chances in this series against the Boston Fucking Bruins will rest on the shoulders of a 180lb offensive defenseman, but it looks like that’s the case. He seems to feed on confidence, and he didn’t look out of place two seasons ago playing against Pittsburg. Here’s hoping that he saunters into this series against the defending champs with enough swagger to carry the fragile egos and puppy dog faces of veterans Chris Phillips and Sergei Gonchar, and surprises the Boston faithful. Let’s also hope Chara doesn’t Phaneuf-hitting-Da Costa the kid in the neutral zone and accidentally kill him on national television.

Baconater

I don’t want to sound like the series is a foregone conclusion: Ottawa’s been surprising teams all season long, though they’ve come down to earth a bit in recent weeks and months. At the very least this will be an enormous advantage for Ottawa’s rookies, an experience for them to build on and an important step to establishing a winning culture in Ottawa’s dressing room.

With the Bruins’ propensity for edgy play, Ottawa might benefit from a few penalty calls, and their ability to steal this series will be dependent almost entirely on Anderson’s play and whether they can score on Tim Thomas on the powerplay. Other than that it’s all one game at a time. If they can get that split in Boston and then come home, then they’re off to the races. This is clearly a case of trying to out-score the opposition. They can’t clamp down and play tight playoff hockey—they’ll have to run-and-gun it and hope someone in our colors is still alive on the other side. If they try to beat the Bruins at their own game, which is to say spend the first period having Chris Neil take a run at Marchand and Matt Carkner overcompensating for the Bruins’ toughness, then the Sens will probably spend most of the game in the penalty box. Ottawa needs to play smart, not take the bait, and more than anything get shots on net. The rest will be up to Craig Anderson.

No pressure, dude.

We know that next year’s roster will likely include Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, and possibly more of Ottawa’s many prospects, not to mention lost souls Bobby Butler, Stephane Da Costa and Nikita Filatov, who are scouring the bottom of the ocean looking for their game. So we’ve got a few UFAs to consider. (I’m not looking at RFAs like Nick Foligno or Peter Regin, because I assume they’ll all be back.) What better time than an exciting ramp up to the playoffs to look beyond said playoffs and consider the dry logistics of contract negotiation?

Jesse Winchester – After an injury shortened season, Winchester may end up the victim of incoming depth, particularly with the emergence of Jim O’Brien as a reliable 3/4 centerman and Peter Regin’s ability to switch to wing. I’d think he has to be worth the close-to-league minimum salary he’ll earn though, especially given how easily he draws into the lineup, his play on the penalty kill, and how strong he is along the boards. True NHLers who also happen to be cheap and will accept short contracts are valuable. If you have to sit him in the press box because of excess depth, that’s a problem most GMs would love to have. RE-SIGN HIM.

Zenon Konopka – When Zenon joined the Senators as his fifth NHL club in seven seasons, I was one of I imagine few people to be quite happy with it. Cheap, good face-off man, good in the room (we hear) and consistently leads the NHL is fighting majors, I was convinced that if you’re going to insist on having a player like that on your roster it may as well be him. 55 NHL games later and I’m not so sure. One consequence of Konopka fighting so much is that it seems to have little effect on the game itself. He fights as a matter of professional obligation, and it rarely seems in response to anything happening in game. It’s not accurate to say that he’s policing . I’ve become desensitized to Konopka’s presence. Worse, he’s prone to taking terrible penalties at bad times. CUT HIM LOOSE.

Colonel Klinkhammer – The Curious Case of Dr. Bob Klinkhammer, currently enjoying his longest stint in the NHL and not exactly lighting it up despite an opportunity to play extended periods with Alfredsson and Turris. 14 games in and he’s still looking for that first NHL goal. You’ve got to think that his natural spot on the team will be absorbed by Silfverberg or Zibanejad. At only 25 there’s plenty of potential here, but unless he’s willing to accept a two-way contract and spend time in Binghamton I just don’t see him returning to Ottawa. THROW THAT SKELETON OUT A HELICOPTER.

Filip Kuba – This is the biggest question facing Murray in the offseason other than how many zeros to add to Erik Karlsson’s contract. Kuba’s posting the best +/- of his career, and playing 20+ minutes a night. He’s a legitimate top four defenseman, and take a look at how few of those will be available July 1st. Barring some impossible run at Ryan Suter, Dennis Wideman, or maybe Johnny Oduya, this team isn’t going to replace those minutes internally. Or it could sign Jeff Finger. On the other hand, at 35 this is probably Kuba’s last professional contract, and I can’t blame him for insisting on three to four years at an average of $2MM-$3MM. That’s overpayment for Ottawa, but I’d still make the argument that it should happen. Cowen is still young, playing 20 minutes one night and 12 the next. There isn’t much defensive depth coming up, unless you think Eric Gryba is better than a bottom pairing D. Gonchar and Phillips will be a year older and less likely to shoulder the load. And he plays well with Karlsson. I think you’ve gotta PIAY THE MIAN HEESE MIONEE.

Matt Gilroy – Gilroy’s a tough nut to crack. He’s getting plenty of ice time, but in a system as wide-open as Ottawa’s you’ve got to think that a puck moving defenceman could do better than one assist in 13 games and a -2, especially considering that he had 17 in 53 and was a plus player with the terrible Lightning. He’s had his chances, and has famously blown a few open net shots. His CORSI is anemic. At this point you’ve got to think that he’s already scoping out potential destinations. MAKE HIM WATCH THE SANDRA BULLOCK VEHICLE ‘THE NET’ AND THEN DON’T RE-SIGN HIM.

Matt Carkner – I may be in the minority in thinking that Matt Carkner represents a fairly valuable type of player: cheap enough to occasionally sit without major consequence, willing to take a short deal, can play as a 6-7 defenseman in the NHL, and fights. Defensive depth is the name of the game, and if the acquisition of Matt Gilroy has showed us anything, a player good enough that you barely notice him is worth something. He may seem expendable, but he’s a low-risk player. Murray may let him walk only because he deserves a chance to sign longer term somewhere else, but if he’ll take something resembling his current deal, then UPGRADE HIS KITCHEN.

Alex Auld – Who? I think Auld got a raw deal this year, never being put in a position to succeed, but he’s obviously expendable with Ben Bishop towering over his shoulder and asking Auld “are you going to eat that?” Plus if Auld sticks around any longer Robin Lehner will cut the brake lines in his car. With so many teams desperate for goaltending, he’ll find work. RELEASE THE HOUNDS.

Well, there it is: no late season collapse robbing us of our newfound feeling of entitlement to playoff hockey, just another afternoon domination of the perpetually rebuilding Islanders. The Senators clinch a playoff spot to top off what has been a long and thoroughly fucking awesome season of Senators hockey.

A few thoughts:

1) Turris: I’ve been as vocal as anyone from the day Rundblad was traded to Phoenix that I didn’t like the trade. I’ve maintained that Rundblad could have been the centerpiece of some larger, better trade, and moreover, was nowhere near his full trade value when sent packing. But it’s games like today’s that make a man admit when he looks wrong. And Turris made me look wroooooooong today. The casual way he delayed on that first goal was a delicious marinara sauce. I can admit it. He looks great.

2) The Islanders: you know, I’ve also kind of felt for a while that the Islanders, while of course a bit of a joke for all of the obvious reasons, were running a really solid rebuild. They’ve drafted and developed their prospects patiently. They’ve locked up their core players. They have great prospects coming up. They should be active in the offseason, possibly trading for veteran contracts from teams who’ve bottomed out. (If I was Garth Snow, I’d be the first one to call Montreal’s new GM, Pierre McGuire.) They’re probably moving to Brooklyn, which is an awesome place. I truly do believe that there will come a season, and pretty soon, when the Islanders will be the team-du-jour to get behind.

But you know, there are times when you’re watching the New York Islanders, with Al Fucking Montoya in net, and JOHN FUCKING GRAHAME backing him up, and you just have to think that the Islanders will be hopeless forever. Is there any franchise other than the Islanders that you could picture having a goaltending tandem of Montoya and Grahame? What a bunch of maroons.

3) First round match ups: I’m sure there’s going to be about a million articles about first round match ups for you folks in the next few days and weeks, but I’m getting some early worrying done about facing Boston. Florida is obviously everyone’s favorite dance partner, and I’d rather face the New York Rangers any day of the week. Needless to say, now that we’ve clinched I’ll be cheering Washington on a bit to take over that 7th seed.

4) Earlier today I saw an old woman fall down some stairs outside a church: don’t worry, she was okay, but she’ll have a real goose egg over her right eye. I told her it’ll look really badass. She didn’t agree.

5) You know who I’m kind of sick of? Chris Neil: I mean, I get it. A tough guy who can chip in some goals is worthwhile, and the way he drew that penalty shows that he can be a useful pest rather than one of those ‘remnants of the way the game used to be played’ pests. But during games like this, when you’re missing two top six forwards and he’s a key veteran who you expect to step up, you can really see the limit of his abilities. I like him because he’s a Senator, but I can imagine being a fan of another team and detesting Neil.

6) What’s your favorite Sens playoff goal? Mine is Dean McAmmond’s shorthanded goal on Brodeur during the 2007 Cup Run. I can’t find a clip of it, but this McAmmond to Saprykin goal was also pretty sweet.

I’ll say this for the Euge: he never leaves us wanting for something to write about.

This latest interview (excerpts from a larger Citizen interview entitled “Senators poised for financial turnaround”) sees everyone’s favorite pharmaceutical magnate provide some revealing insight into his expectations for the season before the Sens went and surprised everyone. That in itself is worth the short read. It’s satisfying the way most behind-the-scenes documentaries tend to be.

But of course, given the title, the interview also allows Melnyk to revisit some of his favorite tropes about the economic sustainability of franchise ownership. Frankly, I can’t blame him for hammering this notion into the ground – that the Senators are constantly on flimsy financial ground, that they once needed to make it to the second round of the playoffs just to break even, and so on – because part of his responsibility as an owner is to maximize team support. But to see the hockey media in this town trot out these ideas again and again without any rigor or interrogation is starting to rankle.

I’ve written on this blog before about the cognitive dissonance between the assumption that the league is structured to make profit for its franchises and Melnyk’s statements that it is not. He maintains that Ottawa, as a mid-sized market who spent to the cap, couldn’t make it work financially. There’s not much beyond that quote that we know for sure.

We do know that Ottawa is right around the league average in ticket prices and in the top ten in attendance. The profits it receives due to television revenues and sales of merchandise are not public, but I’m making an assumption that as a Canadian market they are, at the very least, average. We know that merchandise sales outside of arena stores are shared around the league. So my confusion remains: if an average club making average revenue can’t break even without consistently being among the best eight teams in the league in terms of performance, how does the NHL even stay in business? Every year NHL revenues are increasing, profit is way up, and yet billionaire owners continue to cry poor about the state of the affairs.

Let’s look at some choice quotes:

On what making the playoffs means from a business perspective: Up until this year, we had to make two rounds of playoffs just to break even. Now we are doing well enough that we break even, pretty much, just finishing off the season and everything else kind of gets bonused out. We still have some hangovers from previous contracts that we’re still obligated to fulfill, at least in payment, but once those are all cleaned up in the next couple of years, things can all come together where the business of hockey actually pays. The cheques start going, hopefully, the other way.

Nothing new here, really. The basic assumption is that this club barely ekes out a living after salaries and hockey related expenses. He says this every time there’s about to be a ticket drive, either for seasons or playoff tickets. What Melnyk doesn’t clarify – and what the Citizen of course doesn’t bother to ask – is how much money Melnyk receives as a byproduct of franchise ownership but that is not hockey related – his overall net profit, in other words. One of the reasons clubs like Phoenix and Atlanta have had so much trouble making money is not only that people don’t go or watch the games on TV. It’s also that the owners don’t or didn’t own the building. If hockey teams eat up a large chunk of operating expenses, that leaves all other events – concerts, family events, whatever – as almost pure profit. Phoenix, on the other hand, pays rent. When you factor in television, merchandise, and tax breaks, it’s hard to believe that Melnyk doesn’t make any profit whatsoever from owning the Ottawa Senators. Forbes noted in 2010 that the club was carrying about $130MM worth of debt, which it’s financing, though I’m assuming this was debt taken on to purchase the team and will return to Melnyk when he sells. I’d still like clarification of if this ‘break-even’ point is actually the point at which hockey revenue, i.e. ticket sales, equals hockey expenses. Because otherwise the whole league is a house of cards.

Finally, not sure if he’s referring to the approximately $2.5MM worth of buy-outs Ottawa is carrying from Emery, Cheechoo and Alfredsson (from when Alfie’s contract was renewed), which are coming off the books this year, or Heatley’s bonus, which was already paid out. Curious that he says, “once those are cleaned up in the next couple of years,” which maybe implies a player currently under contract, but I can’t imagine who that would be. (Gonchar?) In any case, I love that he refers to them as hangovers.

On the Ontario government considering removing a business tax break on sports tickets: It did (take him by surprise), and I think it was very foolish to even attempt something like that, you know because at this point, that would have kind of pushed us over the edge. Forget about deep pockets, it has to survive on its own. And the one way, if you’re going to continue having a franchise within a city, especially what I call a mid-market city like Ottawa, is to be able to be smart in everything you do. And the stupidest thing you could do is something like try to do a tax grab of some sort…

I’m not sure what to say here except that as a person who works in health care in Ontario, who sees what the government’s budget and debt look like and knowing we’re all going to have to tighten our belts due to austerity measures, calling this “stupid” and a “tax grab” is a bit insensitive. It’s certainly tone deaf to the tenor of the political discussion today and the popular notion that everyone should have to give back. You have doctors offering to pay more income tax, and this billionaire sports franchise owner wants to talk about survival? Classy, Euge. Really classy.

As James says, it’s easy to have a soft spot for Euge because he saved the team from bankruptcy (real bankruptcy, under a pre-cap, pre-revenue-sharing ownership without assets). But sometimes he says something that reminds you that he’s a billionaire pharmaceuticals owner. Rexall is doing the same shit in Edmonton by forcing the taxpayers to pay for a new arena. These guys didn’t become rich by accident, and during these moments there’s not much more to say than “go fuck yourself.”

On the economic contribution of the team, versus the cost of the tax credit: If you look at the math of what we contributed (around the All-Star Game), it’s a $150 million we contributed. You look at the world juniors, the other events, the two drafts we brought, the All-Star Game that we brought the (Bell Capital Cup) that we have every year. What the Sens foundation does…

No idea what he’s talking about here. Either he means “contributed” in terms of tax revenue, or in stimulus to the local economy. I assume the latter, given he’s referencing events in Ottawa, but this is where he’s starting to contradict himself. Should we support him as an owner because the team is barely surviving, or because of some half-baked trickle-down theory about how professional sports spurs local economies? (A theory debunked about fifteen ways from Sunday.) 

It’s a fair argument. I just think if we’re going to “look at the math,” then by all means: let’s look at the math. What are the total revenues, not just direct revenues, as a result of franchise and arena ownership? How much does Melnyk stand to make when he sells the franchise?

On fan initiatives planned for the playoffs: First things first, I don’t want to jinx it, James. We want to get into the playoffs. If we’re in the playoffs and we need fans to come out for those last three games, and scream and make our players believe they are playing at home, we’ve got to start with that. We get sold out anyways. We need them to come out and cheer them on. If we do, yeah, it’s the same thing all over again. It’s playoff fever. Luckily, I was fortunate enough, and you were too, that ’07 playoff fever was rampant and we got to Round 4 and nobody’s ever seen anything like it. Jeez, we were so close, and it’s going to be the same thing all over. I’m sure that Cyril has planned a whole slew of party events, events for kids and things that are going to get this city rocking again (mentions he will be in town Saturday for a skate for underprivileged children).

This I’m including not only because Melnyk affirms that, yes, this team gets “sold out anyway,” (which, again, if you’re a Canadian team selling out every game, how are you struggling?), but also because I want to be fair. It’s such a likeable quote. Ultimately the Senators are a huge part of the community. I grew up in Ottawa, and the ’07 Cup run was one of the proudest moments for the community that I can remember. Melnyk’s right that we’d never seen anything like it. It’s a reminder of just why we care about sports so much: they are, in the end, declarations of our affinity for one another as members of a shared community, be that community a regional entity or a clumsily arranged group of yahoos clustered around a brand, a likeable Swedish guy, and a cartoon gladiator.

Interviews like this remind us that sports may render all of us community members equal. It’s just that some of us are more equal than others.