The release of the Moneyball movie adaptation today is occasion for us armchair stat-wonks to take yet another hard look in the mirror. Don’t get me wrong here: I’m not in the same league as a Gabe Desjardins, creator of the advanced metrics site Behind the Net, or even Tyler Dellow, whose hardnosed and dogged inquisition on mc7hockey earned him much attention this offseason for uncovering Colin Campbell’s perceived improprieties as the NHL’s chief disciplinarian. I, like many casual sports fans, restrict my analyses to video game simulations and continued insistence that the hockey managers of my favorite team (The Ottawa Fat Cats, obviously) make use of these advanced metrics by hiring some analysts.

So the purpose of this article is two-fold. Fold the first: to implore someone smarter than I to validate the following assumptions about the Ottawa Senators:

• That Bryan Murray firmly belongs in the anachronistic category of the old school, and as such relies heavily on intuition, assessing character, and a notion of credibility established by a nebulous code of conduct. (At least it’s nebulous to me, an arts and humanities major and not, you know, an athlete.)
• That the organization is slowly moving towards the kind of vertical integration enjoyed by Detroit by aligning their drafting, development and play operations to enforce a single style, which may or may not be puck possession, rather than “grittiness” or “toughness,” which is why they would allow half a Calder Cup winning team to walk. You don’t want to win the AHL title, you want to have a farm that will develop a Stanley Cup winning team.
• That their spending on free agents has been atrociously wasteful. This probably doesn’t need much work.

The second fold is to point out some of the excellent writing happening right now in hockey journalism. Moneyball was a bit of a call to arms for hockey writers to identify their own “on base percentage” (I guess puck possession is pretty close, and Desjardin’s own quality-of-competition metric is a pretty good start). But what’s amazed me is the diversity of sports writing out there: romantic narrative historians and robotic bean counters are constantly jawing for some semblance of balance, and we, the readers, are the ultimate beneficiaries. There tends to be a lot of pessimism about the state of sports journalism, but I, for one, have never seen the quality so high.

So here are some links I’ve been reading lately:

• Tyler Dellow’s epic statistical takedown of a Grantland writer’s article about enforcers
  • (And that writer’s article about enforcers, pretty good in its own right)
• Dirk Hoag’s excellent application of Moneyball principles to Nashville Predators hockey
• The GM of the Houston Rockets talks about the influence and hype of Moneyball for Grantland

Varada: 

The Good
 
1) This team will not be as bad as people say.
 
It stands to reason that every single Senator cannot possibly have a new worst season of their career simultaneously. It’s just the law of averages. Even slight rebounds from Phillips, Kuba, Gonchar, Regin and Foligno, and some decent goaltending – it doesn’t have to be spectacular, just decent – and this team is much better than last year. Not playoffs better, but also not a lottery team.
 
2) Jared Cowen looks like a drunken bear out there.
 
In a good way. He looks NHL ready, not just scoring goals but hitting people all over the ice. They need this guy to fill the gap left by pretty much every single good defenceman the team has ever had leaving, and he looks up for it. I got a kick out of seeing Karlsson wearing the ‘A’ the other night, but I think the future of Ottawa’s D is Cowen-esque.
 
3) Karlsson just might be the new face of the franchise.
 
If Cowen is the defensive leader, Karlsson will be the little engine that could (drive the offense). Too early? Probably. But a 50 point defenceman in a terrible year has me salivating over what he might be capable of in a couple of seasons. When he’s playing with, uh, Alex Semin or something.
 
The Bad
 
1) The old school mentality prevails.
 
Zenon Konopka, Francis Lessard, Matt Carkner, Chris Neil. This team has enough sandpaper already. Too bad they can barely play hockey. It seems as if Senators brass know that this year is going to be a tough one, so let’s nut up and get ready to show people that we go down swinging. I’m not exicted to watch all of these good old boys put up a good fight but go -79 on the year.
 
2) I just don’t think Rundblad is ready.
 
Not a knock on him, he’s going to be an amazing defenceman someday. But you can count on one hand the number of Swedish players who came over and made an impact in their first NHL season. The hype is huge, but needs to be dialed down a bit. There’s going to be an adjustment period here. He’s already looked a bit lost out there. It’s Cowen playing key situations, not Rundblad.
 
3) Injuries…again
 
Gonchar, Alfie, and Spezza will each miss at least 20 games. Kuba might miss as many. Anderson too. If all of those guys go down at once….eeeeeeesh. We could be watching a lot of Alex Auld this year, backstopping a team led by a 21 year old defenceman who is 80lbs soaking wet.

4) Bonus (Breaking) Bad! Chris Phillips looks like a drunken bear out there.

In a bad way. 
 
Prediction
 
11th in the East. Top ten pick.

Pete:

The Good
 
1. A blank canvas. What do these guys have to lose? I say embrace your bad-news-bearness and play with an attitude that belies your experience (belies as in refuses to acknowledge the lack there of)
 
2. Tantalizing youth. Not to get all Nabakov (the writer, not the goalie) on ya but the rare but dizzying highlights provided by the young core of this team should at least make for some euphoric, if not frustrating times at SBP. You know there will also be that game where they incredibly pull out an OT winner in the last game of a road swing against a team they don’t know they’re supposed to lose against (see point 1 and notice I didn’t provide the option to pluralize game).
 
3. The all-star game. Really looking forward to attending the draft (drunker than Conrad in a Winnipeg airport) of all star players. Who will be on Team Regin? Team Foligno?.. oh, uh…
 
The Bad
 
1. No depth, zero, zilch, none. Sorry but this team lacks the reliability. It’s one thing to have bodies filling jerseys but there are so many guys in need of bounceback years (only 3 guys actually need a bounceback year,  the proven contributers). Forget the notion of asking if they can improve or recover, lets ackowledge that maybe Peter Regin and Jesse Winchester and Nick Foligno have hit their ceilings? In my opinion there are more stories of guys coming from nowhere than there are stories of guys bouncing back (minus injuries or change of scenery) I’m not sold on the penultimate generation’s maturation process.
 
2. The last days of Chez Alfie. I don’t know if I’ll be able to stomach watching Alfie’s decline. God forbid but father time makes 3rd liner’s of us all. Barring injuries Alfie needs a decent year of production to protect my golden-hued warm fuzzies of his career (including the cross-checking of Gary Roberts, which is one of Carvaggio’s finest works if you ask me). Like the Carpenters once sang, “I need to be in love”.
 
3.The scenario where the leafs finally make the playoffs and the Sens don’t. We dodged a real bullet last year.
 
Predictions

1. I can’t think of 5-10 teams that will be worse than Ottawa, gulp, maybe 4? Winnipeg, Colorado? Help me out here.
2. Ottawa fans will apathetically forget to stuff the ballot box for the all star game leading to a very awkward selection process
3. Zenon Konopka will see 2nd unit PP time as the faceoff winning net presence

James

The Goodish 
 
1.Nikita Filatov will be this year’s Bobby the Butler Beefcake and then some. Will he have a minus rating? Probably. Will he be an “in his prime Guy Charbonneau” back checker? Probably (definitely) not. Is he going to electrify us AND drive us nuts. YES. Good lord yes. I urge us all to manage our expectations and get over it a little. Like the sands of the hour glass, these are the complaints of our fans. I mean, look, as a wee lad going to my first NHL games in the 1950’s, my grandpapaw (who turns 171 today! Happy Earthday Papaw!) taught me the importance of playing a responsible 3 way game and washing all of our hands before using the toilet. Not all players do this (wash their hands). For example, Erik Karlsson doesn’t really do it (play two ways on some Lidstrom shit) but he excels in other areas such as SCORING GAME WINNING GOALS or getting over 20 points on the power play. So, there’s a bit of trade off. I think Filatov will be similar. Oh, he may well be that player who nets those 20 goals that the fan base has (rightly) been griping for a while now but will likely leave the back checking to the Z. Smiths of the world. And people will kind of lovehate him for it.

Side note: I must say the chances of Filatov being injured are quite high. I am not at all against the crew of policemen that the Sens have put on the payroll to protect our developing little wood nymphs from the knee on knees and high hits courtesy of the Matt “Garbage Monster” Cooke’s of the world. Do I hate staged fighting? Yes. Do I like the idea of a guy like Dan Carcillo being at least a liiiiiiiiittle bit hesitant to cross check Alfie in the lower back? Absolutely. Get well soon already Nikita Filatov (gulp!).
 
2. Lack of depth and injury will prove to be a blessing in disguise. IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIt’s rebuild year there’s not a ton on the line and as such we must find new silver or even pewter linings on the season . Is Varada right about injuries? Yes, though my picks are slightly different. When some of these old mans go down with Rubella or Shingles in will come the inexperienced youth program. This will mean seeing stuff like Stephane Da Costa playing 2nd line centre FOR A WHILE or Mark Boroweikileaks getting top four time. How is this good? I never said it would be good I said it will be goodish. This mess will be usefull in weeding out who in the bullpen is the real deal going forward. Log jam at defense? Not so much when Sergei Gonchar or Chris Phillips go down with liver spot infections in November and we start taking from Bingo’s cupboard.

Will the Rundblads, Hoffmans and Lehners of our scrappy little world be able to keep up with the Ovechki (plural?), Charas and Pinkett-Smiths of the league? Well, at times it will be very ugly but I’m sorry Sens fans (we’re still fans at this point right?) A COUPLE of guys are going to work out. Last year Jason York made an interesting point on full time local advertisement stream / part time sports station TEAM 1200 about how we probably wouldn’t be so hard on Brian Lee if he was given the same power play time as Karlsson but since he doesn’t he’s left to redefine his game on the fly whilst dodging garbage thrown by those in pre-purchased Marc Staal/Anze Kopitar Sens footie pajamas. What am I on about? Remember what bottom six Bobby Butler looked like compared to top six Bobby Butler? I felt it was a little more of an honest look at the type of game he is supposed to play. We shall see a trial by fire what some of the new guys REALLY look like. Not just random one off call ups. Leave that for Corey Locke. Juuuuust kidding he wont be called up…man that’s gotta be irritating for him.
 
3. Erik Karlsson will make the All Star team again! Barring injury, The Sultan of Swede (sorry) will enjoy an outstanding season. Thinking about ice size less and ass kickery more will do worlds of good for our special little guy. This will bode especially well with what the French call “advantage numerique*”. Why? I don’t know, I just think making outlet passes to a group of guys trying to solidify a future in the league will pay more dividends than they did to Alexei “Toying with the idea of starting his own line of designer sunglasses instead of thinking about the game he’s in the middle of” Kovalev and – all due respect – Mike “RIPS A SHOT JUST WIIIIIIIIIIIIDE” Fisher. Karlsson’s future looks bright here “seriously considering getting a jersey of his” bright.  
 
The Bad
 
1.Heyyyy I get the advantage(?) of already having seen him go down once IN THE FIRST PRESEASON GAME but Milan Michalek will miss the majority of the season. He will be on the business end of some season/(NHL career?) ending injury early on and will sadly become a write off for the season. Pewter lining: He will take the Heatley curse / tease of his 20-30 goal potential with him. We’ll miss you Robot Knees. OH! And before I forget, I hope Heatley (who has ALREADY been traded to the Wild, B.T.M.Fing.W.!!!!) has a down year (he probably wont). Anyway, this is basically a specific way of saying some of the vets who had terrible years last year will bounce back, some will not.
 
2. Something mega embarrassing is going to happen this year during the All Star game festivities. As we all know, the most irritating thing about ENJOYING YOUR HOME TOWN’S NHL TEAM is that the majority of Francophone Ottawans risk disownment and dismemberment by family members by not cheering the habs and a lot of Anglophone people who’s dad liked the leafs feel compelled to like the leafs (imagine? blech). Anyway, these merry oops…miserable pranksters will likely do something like stuff the ballot box with the likes of former superstar Dionne “cool haircut bro!” Phenerf, Garbage Pail Kid turned NHL forward Phil Kessel or legit 1st line centre Scott Gomez. That or do something like boo any Sens that make the team. Well, if that happens…all’s stupid in love and maturity. We shall do our best to combat it. Anyway, I really just wanted to make fun of those players a bit. What is more likely is that the Sens promotional team will do a fine enough job helping our heads into our hands on some previous 3rd jersey level goof up. Already feeling great about that loud squad or whatever, I can just see it now, Loud Squad: “HEY BRO, WHY SO GLUM!?!” Me: “uhh…I’m just reading my program and waiting for the toilet here” Loud Squad: “AWWE C’MON BRAH WE COULD BE DANCING RIGHT NOW!!!!”
Anyway, BRING BACK NAKED GLADIATOR WHO REMEMBERS MOST OF HIS LINES! And that whole letting the fans pick the goal song? Ugh. What a disaster in the works that is. As fast as I change the station if “Song 2” by Blur comes on the radio I definitely enjoyed that it was one of the few traditions that our 20 year young team had going for it. OH WELL…now we can have a nicklebaque song about how many beers their dinks can drink. Man I love being a turtle.
 
3. People will lose patience with Paul MacLean. What I don’t mean here is that P Mac will do a bad job. No, what I mean is it is too much to ask to take a motley group of Xmas elves and band them together against the forces of …teams with their shit more established and quickly gel and look coherent a lot of the time. I think there will be some marked improvement in a couple of areas but those wacky line combos, occasional too many men penalties and numerous shootout losses wont completely disappear. May the power of consistent goaltending and secondary/any scoring protect you as you walk through the valley of the shadow of public discontent, oh Benevolent Mustachioed Leader.  
 
Huh, what does that say? TALK TO THE AUDIENCE? ….about…PREDICTIONS?! …ohhhh this is always death.
 
10. Craig Anderson finishes season with more wins than Brian Elliot…oh a real one? I don’t know…Erik Karlsson enjoys career year in points.
9. Cowen makes the big club. Zibanejad starts paper route (kid is EIGHTEEN)
8. Filip Kuba and Sergei Gonchar BOTH finish the season with the Senators (unless of course the cap floor doesn’t exist this season)
7. Filatov to finish in the team’s top three in goals (not points but goals).
6. Sens finish ahead of the Buffalo Sabres. (Sorry, I just think they are the new Rangers…great goaltender and a bunch of money plugging holes in the lineup)
5. Chris Phillips to stink up joint again. The guy’s confidence just looks…gone.
4. Scotia Bank Beers to remain expensive but delicious.
3. New scoreboard will NOT be installed by the all star game if AT ALL this season
2. Good will prevail and that Black Keys song I haven’t heard (I only listen to wax cylinders) will be the new goal song.
1. Buttafuoco, Buttafuoco, Buttafuocoooooooooooooooooo *glass smashing sound effect* we’ll be right back! Stick around Christian Slater is here! 
 
*To all those up in arms about the French shoulder patch on the new 3rd jersey…do you know what you guys sound like? Chill, god. Seriously, like, fucking relax a little.

Yes.

Or, more accurately, how could he possibly not be? We’ve had plenty of enforcers on this team—who could forget Rob Ray’s wonderful, fictional breakaway goal in double OT?—so it’s not about what Lessard is bringing so much as how little else he combines with that pugilism.

Zenon Konopka seems to be a well-liked team player and an ace faceoff man. Rob Ray brought leadership and experience in the dressing room, having been a regular NHLer for many years. Chris Neil has flirted with 20 goals in a season in his career, albeit playing on the stacked 2005-06 team. Matt Carkner is actually a serviceable 5-6 defenceman, penalty killer, and shot blocker. It seems that, at a minimum, all an enforcer needs to bring to the table in addition to wanting to kill people is an attempt to be a good person in the dressing room, i.e. not lose his mind and kill someone on his own team.

In 115 career NHL games with Atlanta and Ottawa, Lessard has one goal, three assists and 346 penalty minutes, which I think officially puts him in the category of professional hitman. In the AHL he has 487 games with the Philadelphia Phantoms, Chicago Wolves, Hartford Wolf Pack and San Antonio Rampage with 26 goals, 42 assists and a stupifying 2,544 penalty minutes. Which transcends him beyond professional psycho to some kind of wild animal.

The blogs seem to read pretty unanimously: even the defenders of goonage don’t see what he brings to the table that one of our other goons doesn’t already.

Now you have Lessard taking a run at Filatov, our low risk / high reward player and arguably the player fans are most excited to see during what is sure to be a challenging year, during a meaningless scrimmage. Filatov left the ice, but then returned. There is a larger argument here, which is Ottawa’s old-boy insistence on putting tough guys out there in the first place. How he received 24 games at the end of last year over one of Ottawa’s more promising prospects is completely beyond me. 

But that’s a story for another day. Today we have a marginal NHL player (perhaps even marginal AHL player) taking a run at a 6th overall pick, for which this organization gave up a valuable, high 3rd rounder in a rebuilding year, for no other purpose than to distinguish himself. Can you imagine if he had taken Zibanejad, our other 6th overall pick, out for the year?

Murray, cut this joker loose.

Another day, another claim from the team’s ownership that the Senators need to go “deep” in the second round just to break even.

This has been repeated like a mantra ever since the 2007 run to the Finals, and to this day it smacks of creative accounting. How can a team with better-than-average attendance in a terrible year (11th best, better than the Rangers or Penguins or Bruins), higher-than-average ticket prices (again 11th), and all of the television revenue and merchandising sales that comes from being in a Canadian market possibly claim to be losing money?

Granted, they spent to the cap last year, but it’s hard to understand how a team that does better than almost 2/3rds of the league and spends to a ceiling linked to the prosperity of the league in general could possible be required to get to the second round just to break even. If that’s the case, how on earth do the other 2/3rds of the clubs get by? What kind of business model is that?

It’s not that I doubt that television and merchandising revenues are higher in a market like Boston or New York. Or that clubs like Columbus and Florida (who haven’t made the playoffs in years) are losing boatloads of cash. But an enormous market or consistently horrible club are exceptions, not the standard by which the league’s model is designed. A team simply can’t be expected to be among the very best year after year just to get in the black.

More likely is that the team is getting creative with the public face of its accounting in order to scare up more support – a tactic that just might work, given the team went bankrupt back before there were revenue-sharing schemes and a salary cap. This fanbase is just sensitive enough to respond to a good scare campaign right on the eve of a new season. Oh, check it out: tickets just went on sale! How convenient.

Also, with a CBA negotiation lurking next offseason, it’s in the owners’ best interests to present a united front of hard-done-by billionaires losing cash just because they love hockey that much. From public investment in new arenas to salary control: there’s a lot more to be gained by claiming to be losing money than in claiming to be doing fine.

The fact of the matter is that Melnyk owns the arena, and whatever revenues the team generates probably go into paying off fixed costs associated with franchise ownership, including operating expenses. The team, with all of its salaries and travel, may lose money relative to ticket sales. But television, merchandise, concerts at Scotia Bank Place and everything associated with assets owned because of the club but not directly related to its operations probably represent pure profit. Melnyk’s overall financial picture is rosier than what we’re being presented with.

After all, creative accounting isn’t exactly new around here.

Varada

Thoughts on the new Sens 3rd jersey? All I really have to say is 1) finally this team’s marketing department took the no brainer move and gave people what they wanted, and 2) NO GOLD SPARKLES!

James

“This ones goin out to the haters/ the haters / the draw string haterrrrrrrrrrrrrzzzzzzz” – Snoopy Dogg Dogg Feat Dr. Dre Medicine Womyn
 
Its great. Its great. I, personally, like the draw string look alright. It might have to do with reading too many Olde Tyme Hockey Parchments and growing up in the 1950s but I find the draw
string trend…Could. Be. Worse. Could be a Burger King sash, mascot from a Disney movie sequel asymmetrically jumping through ice, a Phoenix Spirit Guides Decorative Pancho or an angry hockey puck with muscular arms that looks like the mascot of a tire rotation and balancing centre (readers korner: What OHL team am I talking about?). I can live with a draw string.
Honestly draw string haters of Ottawa, call off your dawgz this once! This jersey looks pretty awesome you cant deny this.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAnyway, Verada’s right that it seems like a welcome change that the Sens brass just did the easy thing: What the fans were clearly asking for…for years.
I think the internet is to thank for this. “You’re welcome” – Internet.com
I am starting to think this is going to be a rough season. I mean, the new scoreboard, the adorable attempt at a TV series, the nice new uniforms…either they are
trying to brace us for a bumpy ride or they are trying to make up for bad decisions.
I don’t really get bent out of shape over the gold sparkles. The sparkles have been there since the beginning. Through the good times and the bad. Speaking of reflecting on bad times,
these actions are giving me a hopeful outlook on the future dealings of the Sens apparel. What gives me this sense of optimism? The Buffalo Sabres. This poor
fan base has been kicked around time and again in terms of what they have to look at on the ice. Oh sure there’s the infamous Buffaslug but lest we forget that black Dominic
Hasek era angry Buffalo head or what I think to be one of the most underappreciated shitty uniforms ever http://www.goldenliterature.com/Pics/Sabres-Jersey-Old.PNG  (check that CHEST HAIR VENT!)
Did the Buffalo brass, who I imagine simply to be J. Jonah Jamieson, just chomp down on his cigar and say “Im not changing GAHT DAMN THING…NOW GET ME
SPIDERMANG ON LINE 2…AND GET ME DUCKULA WHILE IM WAITING!”? The answer is yes AND no. He did ask for Spiderman(g) and Duckula (RIP) but he also
realized the err of his ways. TOO MUCH TINKERING….CAUSED BY BAD BABYSITTING!. He went back to the original glorious uni and color scheme. Miracles (oops complete bastardization of that word!) can happen! It’s clear this time around Senscorp didn’t over think the shit out of it. Ugh. It makes me think of the Poochie (RIP) episode of The Simpsons where a boardroom of people are designing
the character…I think the meeting at SBP went a little something …………………………………..like this:

Glenn: “Guys, I want to sign off on this as much as the next person but I have to jump in and say SENS looks a little too much like SNES the acronym for Super Nintendo Entertainment System. Isn’t a bit weird to put a nickname on an official NHL product?”

Sally: “Ahhh, but that’s the subtle genius of it Glenn. According to our latest polling data Senators or ‘SENS’ fans aged 6 to 60 overwhelmingly prefer Super Nintendo to both the Sega CD AND Atari Jaguar platforms! Now, can we Flying Squirrel Clownify the insides of those arms by say 25-30%”
 
Bob: “Absolutely, more weird stripes on the inside. I’d also like to blue sky the idea of embroidering the Gladiator (RIP) who almost completed that stirring speech at the opening of the 2008 playoff game instead of
numbers on the back.”

Sally: “Okay, we’re way ahead of schedule here but this has nevertheless been a long month of meetings. I think we could all use a breather. Would anyone care to join me in another belt of scotch?”
 
All: “Yes”
 
Bob: “And I trust we’re going with “Back in Black” for the promotion campaign slogan/music right? Now that is a song people don’t hear ENOUGH. We’ll see if we can get Chez 106 to start playing it sometimes. It’s clever too because the Sens are BACK after being somewhere”
 
Glenn: “Of COURSE were going with that…its like…TWO things!”
 
Sally (into the intercom) “More scotch, Crystal!”
 
All: “Cheers! To being the smartest!”
 
Me “Sad Charlie Brown Music”
 
(Last names withheld to protect anonymity)
 
Anyway, hoping this leak is for realzies and that this is the new 3rd jersey. Team will be lookin sharp. Can’t wait to see one in person.

Varada

You’re right about those sparkles. They’ve been around since the beginning, and this we SHOULD NOT ignore. All those years when this team was loaded and could not get past the 2nd round of the playoffs / the Toronto Maple Leafs, all those years when it was blamed on a lack of leadership / grit / Gary Roberts / goaltending (Lalime’s sensational playoff numbers cry out in agony once more), all those years when we wondered how a team so deep it had Martin Havlat on its 3rd line could have such abysmal depth, maybe we should have said “Maybe it’s the sparkles?”
 
I guess what I’m saying is that this new uniform all but guarantees that we win the Stanley Cup this year.
 
I also love the new uniform. It is – ironic purchasing of old ’94 jersey on ebay aside – the first ACTUAL jersey I want to buy, even when I’ve very generously been offered an off-the-back-of-a-truck game-worn genuine replica Chris Kelly away jersey.
 
SIDE QUESTION: who the hell are you going to get on the back of this jersey? NO JOKE ANSWERS; THIS BLOG IS ABOUT SERIOUS ANALYSIS AND NOT THE PLACE FOR JOKES:
Antoine Vermette
Bahbeeleebooo Bhuhtlaahhhhrrrrgh
Tim Thomas
Game of Thrones
Nikita Filatov (the ‘O’ can be prised off and replaced with the logo of whatever KHL team he’s playing for next season)
Craig ‘Jesus Christ’ Anderson / just a picture of that monster roadster from his helmet
Daniel Alfredssson

Pete

To be perfectly honest (see: assface) not crazy about this look.

Seems like it’s trying a bit too hard to be retro. (Maybe that’s the point dumbass? Shut up, no Christmas while I’m typing!) I like the subtlety when teams go for the tribute or homage if you will, by adding slight retro touches. My opinion is that if you’re going to keep it retro, go light on the retro-ness. Striped socks anyone? Cooperall pants anyone?

The giant O leaves them open (ha!) to league wide ridicule, to wit:
The Ottawa NuvaRings (look it up…or don’t)
The Ottawa striped orgasms
The Ottawa inflamed o-rings
The Ottawa shrimp rings
The ringworm line (don’t look it up!)

I will only accept this jersey if they all wear old school brown, beaten up gloves and put a shit tonne of dapper dan in their hair.

Jersey I would purchase? Konopka

Prianka

After the ‘SENS’ jersey debacle, there was no where to go but up so saying that I am a fan of the new jersey is not much of a compliment. I really like that they went with a heritage jersey to mark 20 years of the franchise, although it makes you wonder what they will do for the 30th, etc years. I like that this one is a lot cleaner than the ones we’ve been seeing for the last few years (gold sparkles were the worst! It made me wonder who’s 13 year old daughter was helping design the jerseys), and they have also avoided having random and excessive stripes and blocks everywhere.

With about two months to go before training camps and a plethora of one-way contracts in place, the Ottawa Senators lineup is mostly set. We have a very different group from those lovable moppets who we watched crash and burn last year. This is a team with a lot of X factors, questions marks, grey areas, and Romulan Neutral Zones.

Having predicted the team to make the playoffs last year, this year all I will only concede that if all of the planets align and a ziggurat lands from space, the team could surprise—though the same could be said of any team. More likely is that this team finishes bottom ten, at least, and perhaps even with another lottery pick. (Not necessarily a bad thing in this second year of a rebuild.) But we’re optimists here, and it’s only July! No need to piss in our beer just yet.  

So what are the factors that will determine the likelihood of a surprising playoff appearance?

Craig Anderson 

A couple of seasons ago Anderson faced about 40 shots  a game all season long and stole enough of them to carry a young, thin Colorado team into the playoffs. The quality of his support and the number of times he’ll have to single-handedly rescue everyone is unlikely to change, but can he do it again? He’s one season removed from being a legitimate starter with flashes of utter brilliance. The year in between was a disastrous mixture of injuries and tough luck. (Leclaire, anyone?) When he came over at the deadline from Colorado, he did the same for Ottawa, and they won more games than they lost—though not by much.

(Aside: now that the Avs have decided not to qualify Brian Elliott—who signed in St. Louis, who also traded for Lalime back in the day, so what the hell St. Louis?—that trade looks like a complete waste of time and resources. They couldn’t get a mid-round pick for a starting goaltender? And then they went and traded a 1^st and 2^nd rounder for Varlamov? Greg Sherman is panicking, and very publicly. Or does he know something that we don’t?) 

So, can Anderson steal every other game?

Chances this happens: 33.333% 

Rebounds for pretty much everyone

There weren’t many players on the 2010-2011 edition of the Ottawa Senators who had respectable years, but there were a few who were especially bad: Chris Phillips, Filip Kuba, and Sergei Gonchar (AKA 50% of the defensive core, and all of their veterans) Nick Foligno, and super especially Peter Regin, who had one of the worst seasons of any starter in the post-2007 Cup run era.  

Can Phillips (new contract!) still effectively shut down the league’s top players? How about Kuba, in the last year of his contract and looking for one last payday before retirement? Will Gonchar play better now that he doesn’t have Cory Clouston insisting that he wear his skates on his hands and tape his stick to his feet? Is Nick Foligno a top six forward or just a really nice guy? (See expectations for Peter Regin in the next point, below.) We don’t need these players to play at the top of their game, just to not have new worst-ever-seasons.

Chances this happens: Seven pairs of beady Tim Murray eyes out of ten. 

2^nd line center

Every year there’s an elusive unicorn that will address all of the team’s woes: puck moving defenseman, legitimate starting goaltender, scoring winger. Welcome to a salary cap league. This year it’s…a lot of things, but Ottawa’s depth down the middle is the most pathetic. After Spezza (see: injuries) this team has Stephane DaCosta, who should spend a year in the AHL, Mika Zibanejad, who was drafted about eight minutes ago, Zack Smith, Zenon Konopka and…ahem…Peter Regin. That’s Islanders-level depth right there. If Regin plays like he did last year, and Spezza spends any amount of time hurt, this is going to be a looooooooong season. 

Chances someone steps up: About the same as me throwing a football over those goddamn mountains.

Nikita Filatov 

Look, I’m about as psyched as anyone to get a player with such pedigree for a 3^rd round pick, and I don’t understand how anyone can congratulate Scott Howson for just “getting something for him.” This is the Blue Jackets for Chrissakes, the team who has had a top ten pick every single year of their existence except one and still can’t compete. Obviously they aren’t known for player development. I’m hoping Murray can get something from him just by virtue of him not having anything to do with Columbus.

Everybody already has Filatov penciled in next to Spezza. But let’s be realistic: the kid was being developed by the Blue Jackets, but he also couldn’t break the Blue Jackets. He even stank up their AHL team for a while. He’s young, and he needs a contract next season, so I think it’s possible, but unless he scores about 20 goals, he’s probably KHL bound for a boatload of money next year.  

Chances this happens: well, he’ll probably get all the ice time in the world. I’m gonna go straight up coin toss.

Injuries 

Ah, that great mysterious force that moves through the league like a ghost. I’d like to think that Leclaire used up all of Ottawa’s injuries for the next century, but this is a team with Gonchar (age: 80), Michalek (only three knees left!), Alfredsson (age: 82), Kuba (broke leg stepping onto ice), Spezza (threw out back lifting groceries), Anderson (40+ shots a game), and Regin (not very good at anything) on it. You know these guys will miss at least ten games apiece, and maybe much more.

Now I want you to imagine what a team without those guys on it will look like. I’m talking a first line of Bobby Butler and Nick Foligno centered by Zack Smith. Now imagine them playing against THE BRUINS. Oh god. It’s enough to make you want to curl up on the floor in your forthcoming heritage jersey and cry. We’ll need close to full seasons from all of our top players just to keep our heads above water. 

Chances this happens: We’re talking injuries. They happen. 0%

David Rundblad 

If David Rundblad can’t smuggle the plans for this space station to Mon Mothma, then all is lost.

Chances this happens: Probably not fair to expect it, but he’ll get his shot. I’d say about two bushels and a hen’s beak as the crow flies. 

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So, there you have it: my rose-colored prediction for the coming year. Maybe it’s kismet, this team strikes some Binghamton Senators gold, plays for one another all season long, Band of Brothers style, and grits out enough wins to make life difficult for a higher seed. Maybe Matt Puempel comes out of absolutely nowhere and scores 77 goals. Maybe Murray finally listens to my voicemails and trades for Zach Parise. But it’s gonna be a longshot.