Retro Hockey Theatre: Oct 8th 1992, Birth of a Nation

Not sure how many of you die hard Senators fans realize this but the CBC broadcast of the first Sens game is available on Itunes. Possibly the best $1.99 I’ve ever spent. Join me won’t you? As I narrate a hockey game that was oh so much more.

Puck Drop: Lines are Brady, Hull and Turgeon to start. 3 guys with last names synonymous with sports royalty. Hull would go on to be the longest tenured original Senator… 4 years.

19:25: And welcome to the Kerry Fraser show as he sequesters Ken Hammond and not long after Darcy Loewen for holding infractions. Loewen’s infraction  occurs directly in front of the Loeb Club advertisement. I still have my cookie club membership card.

17:30 3 minor penalties killed off successfully. I should mention Bob Cole and Harry Neale are manning the microphones tonight, joined by the great Dick Irvin who I hope gets carried everywhere he goes with those two since he carries them exclusively in the booth.

10:50 Patrick Roy never met a save he couldn’t embellish. This is probably the one and only time he spent a period being outplayed by Peter Sidorkiewicz.

8:25: Based on his current dominance of the lead footed sens I think it is safe to say this isn’t the last we’ll hear from Oleg Petrov. Seriously, he’s road runner-ing the sens right now.

End of the first period. Two tentative teams featuring very busy penalty killers. Pretty obvious there were rule changes and additional points of emphasis during the prior off season. On an unrelated note, why doesn’t Kerry Fraser’s hair have a fake twitter account yet?

Second Period

19:34 And there it is the first goal in modern Sens history. On fresh ice Neil Brady double taps the puck into the yawning cage. He would only go on to score 7 more that season. His first and last as a Senator.

16:15 – Kerry Fraser with the 4th dubious call on the Sens in the first 30 minutes. Thus begins the no lube era.

15:25 – Wait, hold everything! Incontrovertible evidence that Fraser can call a dive as he sends Petrov off. This creates a 4-3 on the power play for the sens, which should open things up as much as can be expected for a team on its way to losing 70 games.

13:03 – Behold! The patient zero of d-bag Montreal fans attending Sens games. Even if this guy does live in Montreal, the damage is done. A new generation operating with the understanding that its okay to fill your home barn but cheer for the opposing team.

9:56 – Goal! Doug Smail nets the second marker for the sens. One of 4 he’d go on to score that year, his final in the NHL. It’s not all bad news though. Smail would go on to record 169 points in 93-94 in 53 games for the Fife Flyers on the British Hockey League…good for second place on his own team. What the fuck Britain? Get your Smail together!

9:15 – Short lived euphoria here as Mike Keane hammers home a shot that ends up deflecting of defenceman Mark Osiecki…which is a life-altering sentence to type… 2-1 Sens.

8:00 – Bob and Harry are absolutely making love to the various synonyms for “terrible” while describing the shit sack sens. Current euphemism count as follows: Feisty: 13, Gritty: 10, Ethic: 7. Pretty dry stretch in the middle period here, much like the mid point of the first. Darcy Loewen’s mullet continues to inspire however.

If you’re wondering when the Ottawa fans picked up on the wave. Well, like all waves it’s origins were organic. Even in a staduim that features a wall.

4:25 – Ken Hammond is going Ken H.A.Mmond in this game! Off a tremendous pinch the big fella pots one to make it 3-1. He even flashes additional agility with a stellar jump celebration. As Harry Neale mutters to himself “When’s the parade?”

And the Procurement Officers are going wild!

End of the Second period 3-1 Sens. Shots are 26-18 Sens and Jacques Demers consoles his charges by admitting in the dressing room that they can’t play any worse.

3rd Period

18:25 – Scary moment here as Brad Shaw’s head goes all squeegee on the glass then the ice. Pretty obvious he’s out before he hits the ice. Eventually he’s escorted off via stretcher. No call, allow me to reiterate: Kerry Fraser can go suck off a bunch of rusty exhaust pipes.

14:25 – Vincent Damphousse converts a rebound as 9 sens stand around and ask for an autograph. Mark Luongo doesn’t get one. 3-2 Sens. Hold the Black Label Mabel! We got ourselves a hockey game here.

Shout out the sens DJ Wicked Wendy Daniels for he sharp selection of every classic rock song ever. Steve Miller and ZZ Top dominate the PA as unfortunately the Manchester Dance scene is still a ways away from infiltrating the NHL’s smallest arena and North America’s most uptight city.

9:08 – Witness history my friends. The birth of the Ken H.A.M.mond hat trick. 1 – Play one year for an expansion team. 2 – Score a goal. 3-  head butt a french guy. The franchise’s first ever ejection! Truly the stuff of legend.

7:57 – Guy Carbonneau – Scratched – Hep C… More like Green Carbonneau amiright?

3:35 – Don’t mean to alarm anyone but Mike Peluso is logging crunch time shifts in a one goal game. He just iced the puck to a thunderous ovation and the generic, non-queen version of we will rock you is blaring form the 15 watt loudspeakers. If that doesn’t encapsulate the early years for this team, nothing does. Meanwhile Dick Irvin is lamenting the fact that there hasn’t been an update on Brad Shaw, jeez Dick c’mon It’s called Twitter. Look into it!

2:14 – Sly Turgeon, easily the Luke Perry of the early sens, buries a turn behind St Patrick to make it a 4-2 game. As an aside nothing says multimedia fan experience like bringing a Sony Sport Walkman to a sporting event.

0:24 – Kirk Muller pokes a rebound past Peter Sidorkiewicz who has had a stellar game so far. This is the first ever recorded instance of that “holy shit the sens might blow this one” feeling that would permeate the early years. 4-3 Sens.

0:10 – Doug Smail pots an empty net goal to ice the game and in the process sets the Guiness World’s record for most consecutive times hearing Trooper’s “Raise a little Hell” Seriously, they probably didn’t listen to it that many times during post production prior to its release. 5-3 Sens.

Credit to work ethic here. The young Senators moved their feet and drew several penalties and didn’t let the Montreal offense achieve any kid of rhythm. If only Kerry Fraser adhered to the stringent new rules as the season wore on. I give this game 3 out of 5 Alanises

This Year’s Free Agent Class Induces Vomiting

I put this picture here because this is the best player we could bring in this offseason.

Hi there, WTYKY readers. Sorry for dropping off the face of the earth. As is tradition following each Ottawa Senators playoff exit, we retreat to a sweat lodge in Muskoka, take massive amounts of peyote, and shoot crossbows at trees from ATVs. Following that we curl up into a ball and mutter, “Please don’t sign Penner…please don’t sign Penner…Kovalev ten million over two…Kovalev ten million over two…” Judging from the fact our site traffic dipped down to negative a billion hits, I take it this is roughly what we’ve all been doing.

So anyway, we all feel much better now. And I note that other, more dedicated and professional Senators blogs have dipped their toes into free agency. WELL WE HAVE OPINIONS TOO GUYS.

Bryan Murray (he’s still the GM, right?) mentioned something about wanting a defensive defenceman and a top six forward from the free agent market this offseason. Well, I’ve got news for you, Bryan Murray, and I’m sure nobody else has pointed this out: you and everyone else. Plus Ottawa is a small market team whose owner is continuously talking about not being able to spend like other teams. (Because, as we all know, a team that sells out every single home game needs to make it to the second round of the playoffs just to break even.) So let’s get this out of the way: yes, Zack Parise and Ryan Suter are really good. A quick look at their stat lines and CORSI confirm it. We’re not getting either of them. Some idiot team is going to spend way more than even these two players are worth to bring them in.

So who’s left? Well, take a look at this list. First reaction is of course to vomit all over myself. (Again.) Alex Semin, he of 21 goals and $6.7MM salary this season, will be the fourth most sought after player? A 40 year old Jaromir Jagr who’s treated like a revelation for getting 54 points on a line with Claude Giroux? (Nick Foligno got 47 points.) You know how you can tell the UFA market is screwed up? 33 year old Olli Jokinen can put up 23 goals 61 points and everyone will say “he’ll get signed if he keeps his demands reasonable,” but an older Jagr is considered a pleasant surprise at more money and less points. Reputation precedes logic.

Anyhoo, the thin market is made especially acute for Ottawa by the fact that many of the available mid-level free agents are centers, a position that Ottawa has some depth in with Spezza, Turris, the recently re-signed Peter Regin, the recently 19 year old Mika Zibanejad, and so on. What Ottawa needs is some wingers, and the selection ain’t pretty. In fact, other than Parise, there isn’t a single winger on that THN list. (Dustin Penner and Ray Whitney get an honorable mention.)

The prize pick of my litter is P.A. Parenteau. He’s unheralded because he plays for the Islanders and no one heralds that team, but he put up fantastic numbers last year – 18-49-67 in 80 games, and 53 points with 20 goals the season before. For some reason he doesn’t have numbers on Behind the Net, so I can’t check his CORSI, but it’s the Islanders, so let’s assume that his CORSI is terrible and his relative CORSI is great. He only made $1.125MM last season, and is 29 years old. I’d be really surprised if Garth Snow doesn’t take a run at re-signing Parenteau this off-season, especially because he’s been locking up his core and he has a bajillion dollars in cap space. But if he hits the market, Parenteau is my number one choice. If opposing GMs have access to Cap Geek and Wikipedia like I do, and I suspect they might, watch for Parenteau to be signed by whoever misses out on Parise to a contract that truly boggles the mind and makes us all lose faith in hockey forever.

Brad Boyes is far from his salad days playing with Paul Kariya in St. Louis, and he looked like a pile of steaming garbage in Buffalo, but as a reclamation project he could be a 20 goal guy. On the other hand, he could turn into a flop of Cheechooian dimensions. I’d offer him $17 an hour and see if he bites.

I like Calgary’s David Moss. He only put up 9 points in 37 games this season, but in his only full season he put up 20 goals, and had 17 in 58 last year. He’s a left winger, and his relative CORSI is respectable.

Andrei Kostitsyn plays professional hockey, though he’s probably done with this basket case of a country after playing in Montreal. Look for him to sign with a team that doesn’t have local television coverage. Either that or the Minnesota Wild, completely lacking any game plan at all, will sign him to a five year, $25MM deal to play on a line with Dany Heatly so the two of them can skate around with their sticks in the air waiting for a pass from Mikko Koivu, who will be hurt and in the press box.

As in most years, if you’re in the market for a third liner, you’re in luck. There are plenty of grinding, character guys like Adam Burish, Tanner Glass, Taylor Pyatt, and Brandon Prust. (Tanner, Taylor and Brandon of course being the most hockey playerish first names ever. Adam sort of sounds like a competitive swimmer to me.) But if you’re looking for a top six player who can put up 20-25 goals, well…like I said, it’s you and everyone else buddy. Unless you think Krisitian Huselius or Niklas Hagman have something left in the tank. I’m not even sure those two guys are still alive.

And of course there’s Dustin Penner. I’ll let the myriad analyses to come do the work, but I will point out that if a player has terrible puck possession numbers, doesn’t put up points, and isn’t a goalie, he probably isn’t going to do well on a team whose system is built entirely around puck possession and needs a goal scorer. (But he’s big! Such a big guy.)

As for defenseman, there’s a more diverse stable of those mid-level, $3MM-$4MM guys – Brad Stuart, Barrett Jackman, Matt Carle – and while I won’t be particularly upset to see any of those guys in a Senators uniform, most of them sport even or negative relative CORSI ratings on good teams, and I don’t see how they would be an improvement over our in-house mid-level $3MM-$4MM guy: Filip Kuba.

It seems difficult to quantify who exactly is a ‘defensive’ defenceman and whether or not they’re a good one. I mean, Hal Gill is available, but is Hal Gill a pretty decent defensive defenceman or the worst player in the world? It seems like he can only be one or the other. People bitch about his inability to skate all season long and then boom: every trade deadline, there he goes, traded to a contender for a second round pick. Maybe we should sign him just because Ottawa doesn’t have a second round pick for the next two seasons.

There are a couple of puck-moving and hybrid d-men that I think will get ridiculous deals, but I’d still like to see Ottawa in on. Dennis Wideman is an obvious one. Johnny Oduya is only 30. Bryan Allen is…okay, Bryan Allen isn’t that good. Matt Hunwick in Colorado might be ready for some more minutes at only 26 years old and having played about 16 minutes a night up until now. Mike Lundin in Minnie is in the same boat. Would it be weird to bring in Carlo Colaiacovo and make him play in Toronto every other night? Hey, Chris Campoli and Mike Commodore are available! Umm…Matt Carkner? 

So as you can tell, there’s plenty of decent, affordable, young defensemen out there, and there’s also a 2-for-1 sale on garbage. But if the object is to replace Kuba’s 20+ minutes a night, then I think we’ve got a problem.

Get ready for a shock: I’m kind of pessimistic about next season. Yeah, I know! Didn’t see that one coming. But Ottawa probably can’t duplicate a number of improbable last–minute comebacks, a relatively injury-free season from all key players, the highest scoring defenseman by two light years, Michalek’s insane shooting percentage for 2/3rds of the year, and will probably will lose Dany Alfredsson and a top pairing D in Kuba. And let’s be honest, they weren’t exactly contenders to start with. So unless all of this moderation talk from Murray and co. is an elaborate scheme to distract from the massive, front-loaded, multi-year contracts they’re preparing for Parise and Suter, well…welcome to the Ottawa Senators, Dustin Penner.

A Day in the Life of a Sun Hockey Writer: Don Brennan goes trolling

My first impulse is to ask “How does Brennan look players in the eye and ask them questions in the post-game scrum?”

And my second is, “I hope there’s an organization-wide ban on reading the Ottawa Sun.”

Feelings are largely positive and sentiment high after an unexpected trip to the playoffs. Anderson kept the Senators in most of their games against the Rangers, and he peaked with a 1-0 shutout in game five to send Ottawa home with a 3-2 series lead. He provided the Senators with the sort of competent goaltending they’ve lacked for years. (In related news, the St. Louis Blues, who made Brian Elliott their starting goaltender, were just swept.)

I’m actually okay with a little bit of speculative writing. We do it here. Blogs always propose outlandish deals and moves. It’s part of what makes a community of writing important: we drive one another to consider the outlandish, to think outside the box. If there were only one or two publications or sites covering the Senators, you can bet you’d get a lot more “ra-ra” fluff pieces. We wouldn’t even have advanced statistics if not for that loveable pre-blogger Bill James.

Sure, I’m concerned about the media in this town becoming an obstacle to attracting free agents. And I’m concerned about a prominent hockey writer in our city taking a second to piss all over the good feelings we all have. (Though I’ve done it.) But Brennan has a point: when it comes to goaltending, Ottawa moved from a position of relative weakness into a position of relative strength. If you presume that Ben Bishop can be a starter (not a solid presumption by any means), and you presume that other teams are desperate for goaltending, then you might assume that Ottawa could get a return for Anderson.

But: “trading Anderson, even as part of a package, could answer the need for both a proven, point-producing forward and a defensive defenceman” (my emphasis) is patently ridiculous. These must be the sort of articles that make GMs roll their eyes and cringe when they see press passes issued.

And there is the subtle distinction between speculative writing and trolling. One offers up a hypotheses and then tests it with scenarios, precedent, statistics, or at least logical justification. Trolling is the outlandish for the sake of it. It seeks a response. You can pump out about 15 trolling articles a day.

What guys like Brennan never seem to do is explore the fraternity of a franchise – the notion that there are core guys, bound like a family, and the organization makes a commitment to them as much as they make a commitment to the crest on their chest. Anderson, like it or not, is one of those guys. He was signed with that in mind. And unless there’s a Heatley-esque meltdown, he’s not moving. And it’s sort of insulting to the underlying values of hockey-building in small markets to treat these players as mere resources, to be swapped in and out at the dictatorial whims of a capricious media and the fans who consume it.

Large market teams can do that; there will always be a flood of UFAs who will take a 12 year deal to play in New York or Philly. Ottawa: not so much. We need to be in it for the community, for the group in the room, and ultimately to win. Media could explore possible moves relative to this small-market reality. Instead, it’s fantasy hockey redux.

Brennan either doesn’t get it, or, as I suspect, gets it perfectly and is trolling. After all, we’ve seen this sort of glib, manipulative piece before. It’s only a matter of time before he talks to a half-dozen people on Elgin St., calls it a “poll” and runs a headline about how everyone in Ottawa wants Anderson gone.

Are big ticket players ever worth it?

Ottawa has a very big decision to make. Erik Karlsson, he of the astronomical defensive scoring, potential Norris winner, and at the ripe old age of 21, is due a new contract. Though to read about it, it seems like what he’ll earn is as disputed as his claim to the Norris.

Some reference Mike Green’s $5.25MM / year, implying that, like Green, Karlsson is an offensive specialist. Others reference Drew Doughty’s $7MM / year and over many more years, implying that Karlsson is a complete, and foundational, player. There are even a few that think Karlsson will exceed that amount, especially if he gets fewer years and if he beats out Shea Weber, who is about to earn something insane, for the Norris. Eugene Melnyk, for what it’s worth, hopes Karlsson remains “reasonable.”

Melnyk’s comment is actually pretty appropriate in a league where reason is usually the first victim of contract negotiations. The community of savvy businessmen that are the NHL’s General Managers can sometimes display the memories of goldfish. Every July 1st, a few big markets who make free agents a pillar of their team-building strategies (and smaller ones aspiring to be like them) get into escalating bidding wars over the scraps from the UFA table. Poorer teams, in a bid to hang on to their talent, offer decade-spanning “long-tail” contracts to their RFAs to spread out the financial burden. Prices and term are artificially raised. The next generation of players start salivating. The result being that when you have a player like Erik Karlsson—very young, very promising, but in only his third season—he gets paid for potential and the assumption that he will maintain his current level of play.

The league is bogged down with player contracts that are insane relative to the value earned. It gets so bad that every once in a while, when a new CBA needs to be negotiated, the GMs paint pictures of financial apocalypse, teams are allowed to buy out contracts without salary cap penalties, or salaries are rolled-back altogether at the expense of all players. As soon as the bidding re-opens, the flavor of the week gets paid.

Alex Ovechkin is, or at least was, a generational player. To do anything but give him what was the most lucrative contract in the history of the sport would have been viewed as asinine and obtuse by a public whose perception is fueled by a hyperbolic media. George McPhee probably would have had a fan mutiny on his hands if contract negotiations had dragged out any longer than it takes to wire some cash overseas. A couple of seasons later and Ovechkin is playing 14 minutes a night for Dale Hunter, setting new career lows in points every season, and with a brain-melting $97 MM still outstanding on his contract. (Dellow has a nice post on the subject here.)

He may be only the most extreme example, but take a look: every team seems to have at least one of these guys—Vinny Lecavalier, Eric Staal, Brad Richards, Roberto Luongo, Thomas Vanek, Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk…even Sidney Crosby if you take his concussions into account. These players establish themselves as elite and then begin a precipitous drop in productivity until, finally, they inhabit veteran roles, sometimes as top six players. Valuable, to be sure, but not providing an equal return to the vast investments made. Those who do produce above-average seasons sometimes do so with preferential ice-time and zone starts. Their teams, having spent so much to procure their services and often handcuffed by no-trade and no-movement clauses, have little choice but to push all their chips in and hope they didn’t buy a lemon. Even those who produce at an elite level for many years are hard pressed to produce relative to their salaries. And I’m not even getting into the Scott Gomez, Rick DiPietro and Ilya Bryzgalov contracts.

(If you have oodles of time, here’s a 100 page thesis on player salaries and performance. The author concludes, basically, that you can link salary to performance in a statistically siginificant but generally inaccurate way. I haven’t delved into his methodology enough to know if he’s privileging point production over defensive play. There’s no mention of CORSI or Zonestart from what I can see. Forbes’ article on ‘efficient’ teams is probably a more, eh, efficient read. Interesting to see New York in the top five, having reformed, a little, from orgiastic spending.)

It’s a question to keep in mind when teams consider taking on Rick Nash’s contract by trade, making a bid on Zack Parise, or when rebuilding teams like Ottawa or Edmonton look to re-sign their young stars. Conventional knowledge suggests you can’t compete without having some core players to build around, but the prices for those types of players seem insane in a league where half the teams are constrained by the salary cap and the other half are barely scraping by financially.

Dirk Hoag over on On the Forecheck made the point forever ago that the Nashville Predators’ version of “money puck” is premised on a very basic assumption that GMs overpay for point production and undervalue defense. This might be because point production is very easy to understand in terms of its quantifiable value, and it may be simply because their teams are much more exciting to watch with offensive dynamos in the lineup. But for years, Nashville let seemingly integral players walk and they only got better. Building from the net out, they’ve been a goaltender factory, and consistently draft and develop premier defensemen. (That trend is now apparently set to end, with the team ramping up to spend a billion dollars on Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, having already locked up Pekke Rinne.) They trade for and sign great two-way players. You’d never see them getting involved in a Kovalchuk derby. While it may be true that you need to overspend on that flashy point-producer to get your team over the hump into true contention territory, it’s hard to imagine building around these types of players.

Which brings me to the uncomfortable question of what to do with a player who we all love to death and want desperately to see in a Senators uniform for many years, but who might just command a contract in excess of the monster Heatley and Spezza deals handed out post-Cup-run. As a premier point producer, Karlsson is a particular risk for massive overpayment. There’s no question that Karlsson has made Ottawa a team worth watching this year; he’s the engine for MacLean’s entire system. But I can’t emphasize enough that that’s this season. Paying with the assumption that Karlsson is going to be a perennial Norris contender, while nice to imagine, isn’t really realistic.

I’m not exactly advising that we package Karlsson up and trade him, but what I think needs to happen, in as professional and respectful a manner possible, is for the club to play hardball with the RFA. There’s going to be enormous pressure on Bryan Murray to show up with a blank check. He could walk out of those meetings with pretty much any deal and, so long as he doesn’t make Karlsson the highest paid defenseman in the league, he’ll be lauded for getting a “complex” deal done. But the true ramifications of this deal won’t become apparent until a couple of seasons down the line, when perhaps the team is trying to re-sign their other young players. By then it’ll be another GM’s problem.

The thing is, signing these types of elite players isn’t something that GMs have to do all that often, and it can be tempting to simply lock them down and keep an eye on the jersey sales. The short life-span of your average GM probably doesn’t encourage austerity and conservation. These problems are systemic, but it doesn’t mean we can’t be aware of them.

I would point, I suppose, to our very own, homegrown cautionary tale, who goes by the name of Wade Redden. I’m sure it must have been tempting, having chosen Redden over Chara and knowing how important his puck-moving skills were to the team’s system, to lock him up long-term. And perhaps Ottawa did try to do that. In the end, he signed for only two seasons, after which he was allowed to walk and, as we all know, was signed to a monster contract by the New York Rangers, who enjoyed the worst seasons of Redden’s career and are now paying him to be a mediocre player on their AHL squad.

Ottawa doesn’t have the kind of money to bury their mistakes in the minors.

Karlsson is the main reason, in my mind, that this season of Senators hockey was so much fun to watch. But with Melnyk hinting at an internal cap, a raft of prospects in the system who represent the future of the organization, and other teams constantly shooting their own feet off with these enormous deals, I’d much rather overpay for a few short years than lock this franchise in to a lifetime of nervous hoping. I hope we get to see Karlsson play for many years to come, but more than that, I hope he plays like he did this year. Senators management only has control over one of those two things.

Talking Points for the Sens Exit Interviews

One of my favorite thing about pro sports is the concept of the exit interview. A facet of my real life job filtering into the wonderland that is sports. In my professional experience an exit interview is the triumphant display of passive aggression and back-handed compliments (Editors note: maybe you were just a shitty employee?)

That being said, there’s no doubt that Paulrus and Bry-Bry will sit down with this rag-tag bunch of pesky misfits to outline goals, aspirations and book-club suggestions for the off season. Let’s take a moment to theorize what those conversations would entail, shall we?

D. Alfredsson – I imagine the coaching staff is probably going that 6 stages of grief type thing with Alfie right now. My guess? They’re doing some hardcore bargaining, offering up vacations and poorly built catamarans to guarantee his return. From Alfredsson’s perspective he should be dropping hints about video montages, framed jerseys and wondering aloud how much money Senatron makes? Just to fuck with em.

J. Spezza – Pretty sure the coaching staff wants him to reign in his susceptibility of being targeted by the other team. (huh wut?) Either that or taking Zack Smith to finishing school (I smell a reality series!). Pretty sure Spezza is contemplating ways to develop his social media profile. Hell bent on unleashing his Turtle-esque bro to rep the light fantastic on twitter (Suk it haterzzz, Big Spez fo’ Hawt trophee in ’13… #19gonwildd)

E. Karlsson – The big wigs want little E to develop an edge, short of a Norwegian Black Metal phase. He should at least start listening to Wesley Willis and announce he no longer respects mild-mannered Swede hockey players that have paved the way. Ulf Samulesson tapes and Big Macs for the summer (the embiggenment protocol). CAAAAAANDLE BOX!

E. Condra – Pursue groundbreaking hand transplant surgery or practice finishing odd man rushes with a 1995 Dodge Neon as his offensive partner. Actually you know what, start simple, put pucks into an open net for a while… let’s say a month?

K. Daugavins – No complaints from a hockey perspective but maybe enhance his profile abit? Fans love him but find it hard to relate to such a unpronouncable name. My suggestion: Change the name to Rod Huggins. I would watch the shit out of a hockey player named “Rooster” Rod Huggins.

N. Foligno – Practice receiving a pass and shooting… or practice dumping the puck into the offensive zone and heading off for a change. If you so much as look at a game of rec league hockey or pick-up shinny you will be fined 50 grand. The Sens coaching staff is determined to nip this out brake of dangle-itis in the bud before it spreads. On a more positive note, continue the exuberant goal celebrations, maybe incorporate an elaborate handshake or the bulk barn advertisement in some way?

J. Cowen – Walk around with a very tiny man, so tiny that passers-by remark at your size in wonderment. Use their reactions as a reminder that you indeed are a large individual capable of feats of strength including but not limited to: removing players from in front of the net and leaving opponents in the corners while the team’s trainers scurry out on the ice to provide assistance. Also please develop a slapshot hard enough to make Dan Girardi think he’s been kicked by a robot horse.

Ben Bishop – Not so much an off season training suggestion but more of a Halloween costume suggestion, decorate your lower half like a small human, then wear a trench coat so it appears you are two little people trying to sneak into a movie for the price of one. (Ed note, Halloween occurs during the actual season, but I’ll let it slide cause that is a cool costume idea)

Jakob Silfverberg – Capitalize on your new-found fame in the Ottawa region by issuing a techno remix of the famous chant that sings of your accomplishments and praises your skills. There are several YouTube examples that will guide you down the path to A-Channel Morning Show glory.

(Ed note, weren’t these supposed to be about hockey?) 

Revisiting Prior Idiocy

Always fun to go back to pre-season predictions the day after it all comes to a close. Here are ours.

Basically, we were wrong like everyone, but not AS wrong as hockey writers not affiliated with the Senators. We thought the team would suck, but wouldn’t finish in the lottery range.

What we were most wrong about

Injuries: I really thought that this team would be derailed if it lost any amount of time from Spezza, as at the time they hadn’t traded for a second line center. Add to that Gonchar, Michalek, and Alfredsson probably missing games and I guess I wasn’t wrong about what would have happened to the team, per se. It just never happened. Most shocking, Spezza played 80 out of 82 games. Injuries were a non-factor. We all thought this team’s lack of depth would kill it. Turns out we never had to deal with that.

Rundblad: He wasn’t a factor at all. Which isn’t to say that he wouldn’t have been had Ottawa taken their time and developed his game, but we put way too much emphasis on Rundblad as a key to Ottawa’s puck possession game. He barely played, when he did he was sheltered, and finally he was traded.

Filatov: We kinda, sort of thought he would be a first line player. Yeah, about that…has anyone seen him? Is he still alive? So this is what it feels like to be a Columbus Blue Jackets fan.

MacLean: I thought he was an old-school coach who preached nothing but work ethic and provided little nuance to his system. One season in and I’m not ready to proclaim him a genius of hockey systems – his teams were brutally out-shot all season long, which is strange when you’re playing an uptempo puck possession game – but he was bailed out by Anderson most nights, and he seems to have succeeded in creating a culture around the club. He rallied the team.

What we were right about

Basically just that the team wouldn’t be as bad as people said it would be. Every single Senator had career worst seasons in 2010-2011, and that was unlikely to happen again. In my own words, “Even slight rebounds from Phillips, Kuba, Gonchar, Regin and Foligno, and some decent goaltending – it doesn’t have to be spectacular, just decent – and this team is much better than last year.”

We also said Karlsson would be the face of the franchise and that Cowen would make the big club, but I think everyone was saying that, even in the preseason.

Next year’s prediction

Because it’s never too early to make a prediction about next season, even if it’s the day after your season ends.

I’m feeling extremely positive about this season, but that’s relative to expectations. “House money” is a term you see thrown around these days, and it reinforces the assumption that this team was never expected to be good. Anyone who watched the team closely knew that it was unlikely that they’d be lottery pick-bad. But now a new reality has been established. The Senators are a playoff team, and all expectations are relative to that accomplishment. I don’t think either assumptions – that the team is horrible, or that it’s competitive – are really all that reasonable.

To me, this season was a mirror image of the season before: a lot of unlikely things had to happen for us to get this result, and if you’re a betting person, you’d obviously bet on those unlikely things not happening again.

Here’s what had to go right for this team to basically sneak into the playoffs as the eighth seed:

  • Karlsson turns in a Norris-worthy season. Is this his natural level of play? He tailed off at the end. Was that regression to the mean or just a young player tiring after a long season and looking to get stronger next year?
  • The team wins several games in dramatic fashion, scoring late, and getting timely goals from unlikely sources.
  • Full seasons from Spezza, Kuba, Anderson and Gonchar. Mostly full seasons from Alfredsson, and Michalek.
  • Michalek plays on pace for about 45 goals for half the season with a just unreal shooting percentage.
  • Alfredsson doesn’t regress as a 39 year old, but actually rebounds.
  • Ottawa is underestimated by pretty much everyone, and faces a lot of backup goalies, even when they’re in a playoff position.

I guess what I’m saying is that if this team stays exactly the same – Kuba and Alfredsson come back, and the prospects that come in play minor roles – then I would expect to find ourselves a few points lower in the standings. If Alfredsson and Kuba are gone, well, that’s two significant holes in the team.

At the beginning of this year I predicted that the Senators would finish 11th. I’m very happy to be wrong, but part of me looks at this lineup and all the luck we had and thinks that this is still an 11th place team.

Which is my way of saying: get ready for an avalanche of articles about Zach Parise.

James Day Preview: Mildly Important Game Edition

Pretend you’re me for a second. Okay, you’re off to a great start. Wow, you are just killing it now…its uncanny…you’re like a regular Daniel Dave Lewis and the News up in here. HEY COME ON NOW I DO NOT WALK LIKE THAT! Okay well, now you’re just hamming it up. Anyway, you’re me and you get an ICQ message from your friend asking “So, what’s your take on game 7?” and all you/I can reply is, “I don’t even know if I have anything to say at this point, all I can do is watch.” 10 minutes later your America Online account (version 3.0, dick) says, “You’ve got mail!” just as you’re about to pop on the VHS of your favourite film, “You’ve Got Mail” in your brand new VHS player. Life has a funny way, huh? You look in your inbox and BOOM Steven drops the above image on your head all, “Here this is for your James Day Preview.” How do I ignore such a glamorous, glamorous piece of visual poetry? I guess I do have stuff to say…
Here we are. You. Me. Stuff. Sort of an important game tonight LETS GOOOOOO…

There’s no hyperbole about it, this is hands down the biggest game of the year for our beloved Ottawa Senators. I am very confident that there are few to zero bandwagon Sens fans this playoffs and you know what? I like that. We were the ones out there getting pissed losing the draft lottery, nerding out at training camp, rolling our eyes at panel after panel’s dismissal of les boys trying to predict when the ‘wheels would fall off”, we sat through the good streaks and the bad streaks, the Karlsson/Spezza point gettingest of times and the concussioniest of times. Its been a memorable journey and now we’re here. This team aint for some other schlub to ignore all season and latch on to in the post season. That’s what Nashville is for. We know that this team has the potential to pull this thing off because we’ve seen their resilience time and again. Peskingly speaking, they’ve been counted out all year, tonight is no exception.

The fulcrum for tonight’s game if you ask me…ASK ME WHAT THE FULCRUM IS…ugh, anyway, the fulcrum for tonight’s game is how Spezza, Alfredsson and Michalek react to their late game benching by Coach MacLean.

We’ve seen that an angry Spezza can be a very dangerous Spezza, like in that game in Winnipeg when he got all Matrix reloaded on that ass. Is the Spezza we’ve seen a bunch of in this series got enough fuel in him to take it up a level? We’ve seen Alfie get in that zoooone when the chips are down for years now so there’s no question there but… I suppose its time to talk about Alfie’s….episode. Okay, a lot gets made of this kind of stuff. Let’s face it, it’s a good story but are we really that surprised when incredibly competitive athletes lose their shit occasionally? It shows competitiveness and desire to win BUT there’s a thin line between being fired up and being off your game. Speaking of which, lest we forget Henrik Lundqvist completely losing his shit AFTER WINNING! Brother’s talkin bout conspiracy. Makes you wonder where his head will be at if the Rags get a few bad calls against them. The Sens top 3 forwards have a chance to make MacLean look like a brilliant tactician here…lets pray they do. Are you finished your prayer? No? … okay, youre good now? Good. Moving on…

Despite the fact that I just talked about the way that Spezz, Alfie and 9MM react to the message MacLean sent them will be the most important element to this game (and I think that the benching ties into what I’m about to talk about) is that they have been far from the deciding factor in this series. If the Sens don’t get a dynamite game out of those three its not like the grinders haven’t been putting in that WORK all series long putting the Sens over the top in their wins. Neil, Foligno and O’Brien have been effective as any star player. A big game from these kind of guys will be just as crucial. Most of all, D men protect Andy and he will deliver! This is the New York Rangers and they are not going to lay down and just let the Sens through. I’m not going to coat it in delicious not chemical at all tasting fructose: A lot has to go right for the Senators tonight if they are going to win.

Lastly, Ottawa Senators, do it for James Day Previews we each and every all of everyone motherfrigging last one of us need more of these. Wow, I am such a jerk.

Okay, well, I have to drum my fingers on my bouncing knees while rocking back and forth for the next few hours.

GO SENS GOOOOOOO ENJOY THE GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAME!

#YESWEBACONATOR

So, now what?

 

The strange thing about Silfverberg’s insertion into the lineup last night is that MacLean puts such a premium on roster spots being earned through hard work. For example, last night, with the team down two goals in the third period, MacLean barely played Spezza. Where most coaches would go back to their $7MM man, MacLean knows that you can’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. You don’t preach work ethic all season long only to say “just kidding” when the games matter most.

So it’s puzzling that MacLean would turn to Silfverberg after finally getting what he needed out of Bobby Butler, after a strong performance by Mark Stone, who’s been practicing with the team for days, and after a season’s worth of hard work by Colin Greening.

Silfverberg didn’t look too bad for a kid who got off a plane about 24 hours earlier. He looked lost at times, falling over Michalek in front of his own end and chasing the Rangers around, but he didn’t make any glaring mistakes. The question is why we were relying on someone in that position to start with? Hype is fun, but is that all it was?

Now the Senators have a huge decision to make and only one game left. There’s no room for error. Who plays?

Jakob Silfverberg: you could always bet that he was just getting his feet wet and will be much better next game. A couple of days of practices and some time to get rid of the jet lag could do a world of good. Though you’ve gotta ask yourself why Jakob gets that benefit of the doubt. Even the best players need more than a few minutes of ice time to get acclimatized. Can he be a difference maker? Is it fair to expect him to be?

Mark Stone: did not look out of place at all in game five, though he did receive oodles of power play time after that beauty assist and wasn’t the answer to all of the Senators’ offense questions. If not for Craig Anderson, that game might have turned out very differently, and the series would be over now. Still, Stone looked composed and confident. Perhaps more importantly, he put Spezza in a position where he felt like he could shoot the puck rather than go for a stroll in the country.

Bobby Butler: he’s been patchy all season long, though of all of the options here, Butler’s played with the most desperation. It looks like MacLean’s message has finally gotten through. Oh, and he also tends to shoot the puck every once in a while, which makes one Senators player doing that.

Colin Greening: Remember him? Played on the first line pretty much all season? Greening hasn’t been killer playing with Smith and Neil, though that line has been very good thanks to Neil’s decision to annoy the ever-loving crap out of everyone in the state of New York. Greening is just a good, solid player who knows when to crash the net. Could simplifying our strategy be the answer here?

Mika Zibanejad: “Oh ah Zibanejad / say oh ah Zibanejad” has a nice ring to it.

A baconator came to me in a dream. And spoke with my father’s voice.

VARADA. THIS IS YOUR FATHER.

WHY DID YOU DOUBT? WHY DO YOU DOUBT THE SILFVERBERG AND THE ALFREDSSON? WHY ARE YOU SO CYNICAL ABOUT THE SENATORS’ ABILITY TO ‘BELIEVE IT’? DID YOU NOT RECEIVE YOUR TOWEL? ITS INSTRUCTIONS WERE CLEAR. DOES THE TOWEL SAY ANYTHING ABOUT CORSI OR FENWICK? NO, IT DOES NOT SAY ANYTHING ABOUT CORSI OR FENWICK.

WHY DID THE SENATORS NOT LISTEN TO THOSE SITTING AROUND YOU AND THEIR INSTRUCTIONS TO “SHOOT IT”?

ANYWAY, GAME SEVEN IS GOING TO BE INTENSE. AND NOT ONLY BECAUSE THE NHL MAY AS WELL RELEASE A LIVE FUCKING PANTHER ON THE ICE FOR ALL THE ARBITRARY BULLSHIT THE OFFICIATING IMPOSES ON THIS GAME. WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME YOU WATCHED AN NBA GAME AND SAW ONE TEAM GET 10 FREE THROW CHANCES IN A ROW, OR AN NFL GAME THAT SEES ONE TEAM GET A 40 YARD PENALTY? YOU NEVER HAVE. BECAUSE THOSE SPORTS ARE REAL THINGS. THEN AGAIN, SENATORS GET A GOAL WITH 32 SECONDS LEFT AFTER WHAT WAS CLEARLY GOALIE INTERFERENCE AND SKATE KICK. WHATEVER THE FUCK. WHO EVEN CARES AFTER THIS RANDOM CRAP.

YOU SHOULD NOT HAVE DONE YOUR DEGREE IN ENGLISH LITERATURE.

ASIDE: CHRIS NEIL WAS BOSS TONIGHT.

PUCK DADDY: “In a series that’s seen its share of inconstant, sometimes horrific officiating, who knows how Game 7 will play out.”

NO KIDDING. TOO BAD IT WILL HAVE ONLY 50% TO DO WITH ACTUAL HOCKEY.

ANYWAY: 20,000 FREE BACONATORS CAN’T BE WRONG. HOPE THE PANTHER IS ON OUR SIDE NEXT GAME. GO SENS.