Since being selected 29th in the first round of the 2006 draft, Nick Foligno’s had more than his share of unrealistic expectations assigned. The unfortunate intersection of the team’s closing window of contention and management’s insistence that it would be open forever, meant he entered the lineup quicker than he might have in previous years, when the team had depth at all positions, and was expected to produce immediately on a team still flirting with elite status. One of Muckler’s last draft picks before the old man was unceremoniously set adrift on an ice floe, Foligno spent only 28 games playing in Binghamton, playing most of the 2007-2008 season in Ottawa.

Foligno’s been pegged as capable of consistently scoring 20 goals in a season, which is probably about the ceiling for late first rounders. He flirted with that potential during the 2008 season, scoring 17 goals, and even in down seasons displayed a grinder’s work ethic and dressing room character. Nonetheless, he’s better suited to third line work, playing against lesser competition in an energy role.

And yet, despite all reasonable expectations, I still find a palpable sense of disappointment in Foligno’s play expressed on the blogs. The notion is that this team didn’t, and doesn’t, need another Chris Neil (or Jarkko Ruutu); it needs scoring, and Foligno, the odd man out on the amateur’s depth chart, gets the leftover baggage.

To make the situation even more maddening, now that Foligno is being used liberally—again, due to playing for a thin team—he’s on pace for 27 goals and a career high in points. Some have written that he is “finally” starting to show the potential for which Ottawa used a 1st round pick, as if we’ve been made to wait an unreasonably long time for a player given almost no development time. And even when he aspires to insane expectations, his name is linked in trade rumours by fans eager to see the rebuild accelerated. Tired of the same old thing, we look ready to double down at the draft’s roulette table.

The most important stat, often overlooked I think, is that Foligno is only 25 years old and already in his fifth pro season. He’s saddled with veteran status while similarly aged players like Eric Condra or Colin Greening are given all the leeway afforded rookies. Expectations scale accordingly. If Colin Greening has a season similar to Foligno’s 2009-2010 (9 goals, 17 assists) I doubt there would be much uproar. Anything less than top six performance from Foligno, a player cut very much from the same cloth, and we’ll find him linked in trade rumors once again, his name invoked in the same sentence as the term ‘reclamation project.’ Forget that Greening was a 7th rounder and Foligno a 1st; for everything past the top 15 picks, probability skews all over the place.

Ottawa should not trade Nick Foligno. I would be entirely unsurprised if he turns out to be the third liner it’s reasonable to expect that he is (and let’s not underestimate their importance in a cap era), but you don’t give up on 25 year olds. I would be equally unsurprised if you saw Foligno start tearing it up with another team a season or two from now. Ottawa has invested the time and development in Nick (albeit at an NHL level rather than in the AHL); why not wait to reap the rewards?

Brian Elliott’s numbers in St. Louis are downright nutty: .941 SV%, 1.72GAA, 5 wins in 7 games for a team that only has 6 wins overall. All for $600,000 on a one year deal. In the same week that Nashville gave Pekka Rinne $7M a year over 7 years, and with Philly already tugging their collar because of that ludicrous 9 year Bryzgalov deal, Elliott is yet another cautionary tale about managing goaltending expectations and looking for value.

This is no 20/20 hindsight: Elliott had to go from Ottawa, and there was no way Colorado was going to qualify him after his disastrous stint there. (Aside: that they traded Anderson for Elliott and then let Elliott walk is still baffling. They couldn’t have received even a draft pick for Andy?) I’m not suggesting that Elliott shouldn’t have been cut loose. More likely the lesson here is that the most fickle position in hockey demands a lot of selection and flexibility – the fact that we could cut him loose is precisely the argument for keeping these types of players around. You can go with a bona fide #1, but even the best in the game, your Luongos, Thomases, and Brodeurs, go through their rough patches. Elliott’s play in the 2009-2010 season helped to get a mediocre team into the playoffs. The fact that they had their money tied up in Leclaire meant we had fewer options when Elliott faltered.

All of which to say: give me four guys making league minimum over the high priced option who you live or die by any day.

Now, Anderson hasn’t been great this year either. After playing superbly down the stretch last year, the team decided, even after Emery, Gerber, and Leclaire, that it made the most sense to sign a goalie to rely on night in and night out. Anderson will have his better games in Ottawa, and with a cap hit of just over $3M he doesn’t have the worst deal in the league. But he’s making starting goaltending money for the next four seasons. Show me a goaltender making that kind of money who you think is consistently worth their salary. It makes much more sense to me to allow oneself access to those rare opportunities (Vokoun gets frozen out, signs a one year deal), to increase your chances at a hot hand by simply keeping a larger stable, and to work on perfecting your defensive system.

The goalie market is flooded with veterans and cast-offs alike looking to prove themselves. Take a look at how many UFA goaltenders are pending for 2012, and how many might be had for low-risk, one year, cheap deals – if, that is, the team hasn’t tied itself up with a ‘legit’ starting goaltender.

Elliott is a perfect example of a player who is working his way back to respectability with neither money nor stability in return. He’ll come back to earth eventually. And if he doesn’t for long enough, I’m sure some team will give him a ludicrous deal to provide ‘stability’ to the most unstable position on a hockey team.

Interesting discussion happening in the comments of this post, and one that I’m sure will pick up steam as the season progresses: just how much does Erik Karlsson get on his next deal?

His importance to the team is uncontestable, and would be if his performance were even half as integral as it’s been this season. Over a point-per-game, well on pace to beat his already respectable high of 45 points last year; playing between 25 and 30 minutes a night, and in all situations; showing great leadership and ownership. For such a young player, and such a small player, he’s carrying the team most nights, and it’s not hard to imagine Karlsson someday becoming the next Swedish captain of the Ottawa Senators. He demonstrates the importance of a puck-moving defenceman, and why Ottawa chose Wade Redden over Zdeno Chara back in the day.

The question isn’t whether he gets a hefty raise—that’s assured—it’s whether or not Karlsson is in the elite strata of defencemen garnering those truly ludicrous deals. One of our readers suggested that Karlsson be paid up to $6M a year, which, according to Capgeek, would make him the 11^th highest paid defenceman in the league—above the likes of Brent Seabrook, Andrei Markov, Duncan Keith, Mike Green, and Keith Yandle.

Looking strictly at points, Shea Weber’s career high is 53 (though on a low-scoring team). Drew Doughty’s is 59. Mike Green has had two 70+ point seasons, albeit on the hockey equivalent of a blitzkrieg. Guys like Zdeno Chara and Dion Phaneuf bring elements that Karlsson simply isn’t built to provide. Timonen and Boyle are veterans in the league who were negotiating as UFAs. And then there’s Jay Bouwmeester, Brian Campbell and Wade Redden, acting as our resident cautionary tales.

I suggested in the linked post that because Karlsson is an RFA rather than a UFA, now’s the time to really put the screws to him for the good of the team. (Look at what Sather did with Marc Staal, who is now signed to a very reasonable deal.) When his RFA status is combined with an impending CBA negotiation, and Karlsson is playing for a team in flux (Yield for Yakupov isn’t exactly going as planned), it’s in the best interests of all involved to maintain maximum flexibility on a fair, but conservative, deal.

It seems to me that there are two scenarios most likely to happen:

1) A short-term deal—2 to 3 years—at $4M-$4.5M. Low, perhaps, but still a hefty raise on what he’s making now, and which allows for a real cash-in on his next contract, when, if he’s still producing, the team will gladly pay him whatever he’s worth (unless David Rundblad has made Karlsson redundant at that point). It allows the team to really see what they’ve got, and the player to know how he’ll be used. Also, the argument can be made for contention: there’s a lot of young defencemen on this team, and only so much cap room. Plus, this team has been burned on long-term, high paying deals in the past. (Heatley.)

2) If a long(er)-term deal like those signed by other prominent RFAs Mike Green and Keith Yandle is the only option from Karlsson’s POV, then look at their conservative totals. Mike Green signed for four years at $5.250M, which seemed low for far and away the highest scoring defenceman in the league. Yandle signed for five years and the same amount. Both took less than they perhaps could have gotten in order to manage expectations, stay with their team, and, in Washington’s case, keep the roster together. Karlsson takes on some risk in this scenario, especially if the new CBA involves a salary rollback similar to that employed during the last negotiation. But otherwise the term and amount are just right, as Karlsson falls somewhere between those two players in terms of his skill set. He puts up points like Green, though not at that level, and has a great all-around game, though not as solid as Yandle’s.

The alternative, I suppose, is to go for broke and sign him to one of those long-term, cap-circumventing deals with a tail in order to take advantage of a CBA loophole before it’s closed in the next negotiation. Karlsson is only 21. If you’re 100% about his role on this team, you could theoretically sign him for the next 10 to 15 years. Doesn’t seem like Murray’s style, and I certainly think that’s a terrible idea. (Subject for another post maybe, but these have to be eliminated. Not because they’re unfair, which they are, but because it’s only a matter of time before one of these terrible decisions ruins a franchise. The Islanders are close that situation with Di Pietro. But imagine if Kovalchuk takes a stick in the eye and loses his peripheral vision, becoming half the player he is now. New Jersey would have to pay a marginal player $11M+ for years… and that could happen to any team in the league on a bad night.)

With the team not expected to contend, and with all of the cap space in the world right now, it may seem like there’s no pressure to get this deal right. Just give him whatever it takes to keep him in a Sens uniform, right? But these are the kind of decisions that put franchises in difficult situations a few years from now, when you’ve got Rundblad, Cowen, Michalek and Spezza all needing new deals within a season of each other.

Varada

Six wins in a row. The elephant in the room: are we being hopeless romantics to expect this team to make the playoffs this year? Is it just a case of early season wackiness, i.e. the team is only 2 games above .500 and is 4th in the conference? SUB-QUESTION: is this a repeat of the 2009-2010 season when the Sens went on an 11 game win streak and made the playoffs as the fifth seed, but if they’d played .500 hockey through that stretch they would have been a bubble team? Is this an anomalous period to be followed by a crushing return to mediocrity? SUB-QUESTION THE SECOND: Is it better to burn out or to fade away?
 
I’m tempted to take a more optimistic tone than most of the cautious (read: professional) Sens blogs, who are all predicting the wheels to suddenly and irrevocably come off the wagon at some point. The team is playing their system, and MacLean is rolling with whoever is giving him the most at the moment but without mixing up the lines, which is refreshing. Sharing the load with the vets seems to be working. (Remember when Clouston played Alfredsson 37 minutes a night?) Also, if Rundblad becomes as good as Karlsson is now, holy sheeeeeeeeeet will this team be fun for years.

Basically, I’m just getting a greater appreciation for the inherent funk-upness of the NHL itself, and its totally capricious, unfair, God’s Dice style chaos theory. You know how you’re playing the latest version of NHL for whatever your respective electronics totem is (now: with sneezing on the bench! *hands over $70*) and you sim a few games and think, “Pshaw, EA’s likelihood calculators are so skewed. Edmonton in first place? Toronto leading their division? Ottawa in 4th? Colorado and Dallas ruling the West? Detroit in a funk? Columbus finally spends more money and automatically becomes the worstest? Defending champs can’t string together two wins to save their life? EA has some work to do on their algorithms.” (Also, Vancouver always trades one of the Sedins.) Well, I’m starting to think that the kids they have working there for $12 an hour are probably just like “Fuck it.” Both because they make $12 an hour, and also because the NHL is like Road Warrior out there. Totally unpredictable. So we’re living in a zen moment right now, total kismet. I hope they have overstock of whatever incense MacLean is burning in the dressing room.

James

Happy Halloween everybody. Blessedish be the time of year when you get to go to a party that involves sweating profusely under a mask and/or uncomfortable clothing all night.

So let me start off by saying “Man, I love being a turtle!” as in, 6 game win streak really hitting the spot right now. A win streak that now includes beating the maple loaves at home in front a building half full of people who’s dad liked the maple leaves so they feel compelled to cheer for the team of another city and that hasn’t done anything since they had to slug it out through TWO whole rounds of playoffs nearly a half century ago in a league of six teams. What? “I put a lot of money up IM HATIN” – Ghostface Killah.
 
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAnyway, I will be my regular gutsy self and weigh both sides of the equation. New coach, new players, new town, new red, new army. Branding, RIGHT GUYS? I’m thinking maybe these guys are starting to gel a little bit out there. Sure there is still a core of vets from years past but over the course of a couple of months the Sens went from being one of the oldest teams in the NHL to one of the youngest. There’s not a ton of time between preseason and meaningful games to figure things out. It is quite possible that the players are starting to get used to each other out there.

That said, it is one month into the season and that there is some really sticky NHL math going on. I think it’s awesome that the Sens are 4th in the East and the Bruins are 15th or whatever but I mean on that same note, as great as King Karlsson is playing right now he has more assists than Henrik Sedin, Edmonton is no.1 in the West and Alex Ovechkin is sitting in 29th place in scoring on TSN’s Stats page. To use the NHL “term du jour that isnt ‘compete level’” the sample size is too small. I expect the league will have a different look after the All Star break. Wasn’t Philly in the basement around this time two seasons ago when they made the cup finals?

Now that I’ve covered my buns, I have to admit, there are a lot of things that this team is doing that make me think that they won’t finish dead last in the East as so many predicted.

– Goaltenders doing their jobs but not being relied on to put on constant high fiving Jesus in space 50+ save performances.
– Special teams are really clicking (great for killing off the way too many penalties Ottawa’s taking right now)
– Team is scoring goals which they weren’t supposed to and, moreover, all of those expected to put up points are putting up points. Spezza, Michalek, Karlsson, Gonchar….these are the guys who are supposed to be on the score sheet consistently and so far they are fulfilling their role.
– New players delivering: Colin Greening Colin Greening Colin Greening Colin Greening oOOooOOOOoo also did anyone else catch Cowen dumping people on their asses left and right against NY?
– Rundblad gaining confidence with each game
– Kuba not playing like he’s wearing a used diaper full of Indian food and burnt hair (sorry Anchorman was on last night)
– Gonchar gaining confidence with each game
– I’m not noticing Phillips which means he is playing well.
– Neil playing out of his mind
– Multiple come from behind wins
– Winning games on back to back nights
– Bouncing back from tough losses
– Shootout wins.
– Bonus point: I dont think the Sens have lost with Winchester in the line up…
 
Alright, so this is a sunny evaluation but when a team wins 6 games in a row…what can I say, things look sunny. There are still some kinks to work out like having to play on their heels a man short way too often but…. I outlined all those things above as i feel there are a lot of positives so far and I just don’t see them all as flukes. Players will heat up and cool off but all those shot blocks in the first period last night? That’s straight up discipline.

If this team does well, great. I am totally at ease with not having a powerhouse team during a rebuild but if the team wants to roll let them roll. Look at how many first round picks the team picked up this past draft; that’s a bit of a buffer if the Sens are out of the lottery zone. I am almost completely sure the Sens wont “steal” last place from its rightful owner Columbus. If the team wants to start winning now, they start winning now. The Sens got an amazing draft pick this year at no. 6 but have made serious moves outside the lottery the past few seasons. Karlsson 15th, Cowen 9th, Rundblad (technically 17th  acquired by a 16th) Lehner 46th and a bunch of unsigned College boys. Not to mention former no. 6 Filatov aching to prove himself worthy of more than 5 mins of ice time. As I’ve said before, I want a Ryan Ted Nugent-Sir Anthony Hopkins too but if the team decides to start kicking ass then kick away. If things go south then we are who we thought we were and we get another high pick. As long as the hockey remains as entertaining as it has been I could go either way. I think yes, this is the whacky world of the NHL, of course it’s possible that the Sens make the playoffs. If they do I will see you and the Sensquatch in the back of the limo I just bought in cash from the Chinese mafia. If not I wont be mad at wherever they finish as long as they’re trying. Keep fit and have fun.

With the Sens suddenly not stinking anymore, you’re easily forgiven for neglecting the reason 29 fan bases follow hockey: thinking of next season. (Especially when “next year” doesn’t necessarily mean daydreaming about Yakupov.) The team’s competitive for now, and winning in an entertaining fashion. Obviously I’m making all sorts of trips to the Wine Rack for my daily dose of Iniskillen Iced Wine and totally paying for my Senators Sportsnet Digipak Bonus (Not Free) Content legally.

But here’s the thing: if the team ends up more competitive than we thought it would be (whoa whoa WHOA, I just said “more competitive”…not “competitive”), and they already have all this cap space, there are some exciting scenarios for next season.

It’s Friday so obviously I’m on Cap Geek. And I notice, first, that the team has about $12,500,000 in cap space already, which is, you know, sort of crazy. (Also crazy: Dallas is competitive with the lowest payroll in the league. Columbus has the fourth highest eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeshsorryguys.)

But then, check it out: there’s just under $2,500,000 coming off the books just in buy-outs. Cheechoo. Emery. Alfredsson. (So glad we bought out that bum.) That’s a whole, real, corporeal player in exchange for nebulous bills. Or two Konopkas.

I sent out a Tweet asking if anyone would consider re-signing Kuba considering his strong play this season, and to sweeten the deal I posited a scenario in which he accepts less money and years. Say…about the $2.5M we just saved on buyouts. The completely scientific results of that Twitter poll (which, by the way…. @wtyky) indicated that 175% of respondents would not re-sign him. (Margin of error of + / – 200%) Hm. Well then. I guess that’s another $3,700,000 in space.

Then you’ve got Carkner, Winchester, Lee and Konopka who, for the sake of argument, let’s say aren’t coming back. Another cool $3,025,000.

Murray has got to re-sign Karlsson. (FOR LIFE, BTW.) That’s a subject for another many dozens and hundreds of posts. (If there’s anything I learned from being notified 10,000 times that that Mika Zibanejad had been sent back to the SEL, it’s that we’re all on the same page when it comes to discussion topics.) But let’s just split the difference between the low and high ends of potential salary and say he makes $4,000,000 a year. We’ll say Da Costa, Regin, and Foligno come back for about the same amount. We’ll also assume Papa Alfie stays in house, and lets the Sun columnists tell him who should live in his basement for one more year. We’ll also assume a few new youngins come into the fold. Let’s also assume we remember Filatov is alive.

That gives this team around $18,000,000 in cap space. Or over a quarter of the entire cap. Which is absolutely nutty. $2M more cap space than the lowest payrolled team in the league right now.

My point being: 

1. We should probably seriously look at re-signing Kuba, especially if he’ll take a paycut and sign for a year or two without a No Trade Clause. I know he’s frustrating. I’ve been right there with you, throwing my chicken wings into a child’s face with frustration. But he can play 20+ minutes a night, and this is a young team, and c’mon guys. Just c’mon. He’s not that expensive. Maybe we can teach him to throw his size around! Just kidding. But think about where you’re gonna put your Kuba hate if he finishes the season with 35 points and a plus rating.
2. There are some seriously exciting players up as UFAs. Not a ton of them, and of course Zach Parise AND Alex Semin will somehow both end up on the Rangers after they bury Brad Richards in the Latvian Mediocre Excellence Brigade. But there’s those two, Ryan Suter, Willie Mitchell, Mikhail Grabovski, and of course a whole slew of Misfit Toys willing to take on cheap contracts just because no one else wants them (helloooooo Lee Stepniak). Murray might actually be in the enviable position, now known as The Tallon, of having to spend to get to the cap floor. This team can have a major shot in the arm next year, and so long as Murray signs players to short contracts to keep room for the necessary re-signings, this team’s in great shape. 
3.  Yakupov-Schmakupov.
4. This is a chance for Melnyk to re-coup some losses. (Which, you know, I’m not entirely convinced about.) This is also a chance for the team to reinvest. Scoreboard. Cheaper concessions. More ticket deals. Let’s get a foam finger on all of those kids’ hands. (Though thanks for the pin during the home opener, that was nice.)